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Meb Faber at QuantCon 2016

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A look back to Meb Faber's predictions from QuantCon 2015, a discussion on asset allocation, yield in a 2% world, and Omaha!

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Meb Faber at QuantCon 2016

  1. 1. Investment Management for High Net Worth Individuals and Institutions •  QUANTCON APRIL, 2016
  2. 2. Disclaimer This presentation is for informational purposes and is not an offer to sell. Any investment involves significant risks, and past market conditions may not resemble future market conditions. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT, DO NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK OR REFLECT ACTUAL TRADING BY ANY ACCOUNT UNDER ACTUAL MARKET CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE DO NOT REFLECT THE IMPACT THAT ECONOMIC AND MARKET FACTORS MAY HAVE HAD ON THE ADVISOR’S INVESTMENT DECISIONS FOR THAT ACCOUNT. NO REPRESENTATION IS MADE THAT CIMI'S PERFORMANCE WOULD HAVE BEEN THE SAME AS SUCH SIMULATED HAD CIMI BEEN IN EXISTENCE DURING SUCH TIME. ANOTHER LIMITATION IS THAT INVESTMENT DECISIONS REFLECTED IN THE SIMULATED RESULTS CANNOT COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK ON THE MANNER IN WHICH AN ACCOUNT WOULD HAVE BEEN MANAGED. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RECORD SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED. THE SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ENHANCEMENTS THAT MAY BE MADE TO THE PROPRIETARY COMPUTER MODELS OVER TIME. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. ALL RESULTS ARE GROSS OF ALL TRADING AND MANAGEMENT FEES
  3. 3. About Cambria 3 •  SEC RIA founded 2006 •  Active and Passive ETFs •  Digital advisory coming soon! •  Disrupt traditional high fee investing
  4. 4. Market Research 4 Blog: MebFaber.com Work: CambriaFunds.com Ideas: TheIdeaFarm.com Twitter: @MebFaber
  5. 5. Freebook.mebfaber.com
  6. 6. TODAY 1.  QuantCon 2015 2.  Asset Allocation 3.  Yield in a 2% World 4.  Omaha!
  7. 7. Global Valuations 1.  US 25 2.  Developed 17 3.  Emerging 15 4.  Cheap 25% 9
  8. 8. © Copyright 2016 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ DAVIS208 Standard & Poor's 500 Index Monthly Data 1964-03-31 to 2016-03-31 (Log Scale) © Copyright 2016 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ DAVIS208 Standard & Poor's 500 Index Monthly Data 1964-03-31 to 2016-03-31 (Log Scale) 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 79 100 126 158 200 251 316 398 501 631 794 1,000 1,259 1,585 1,995 79 100 126 158 200 251 316 398 501 631 794 1,000 1,259 1,585 1,995 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P 500 Gain/Annum When S&P 500 Median P/S is: % Gain/ Annum % of Time * Above 1.53 0.34 20.19 Between 0.7 and 1.53 6.60 46.81 Below 0.7 10.22 33.00 S&P 500 Median Price/Sales Ratio 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 Median = 0.90 +1 SD = 1.40 +2 SD = 1.89 -1 SD = 0.41 2016-03-31 = 2.16Source: S&P Capital IQ Compustat
  9. 9. …But you would be out of stocks since the 1990s! © Copyright 2016 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ DAVIS219 Household Equity Percentage vs Subsequent Rolling 10-Year S&P 500 Index Total Return Quarterly Data 1951-12-31 to 2015-12-31 © Copyright 2016 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ DAVIS219 Household Equity Percentage vs Subsequent Rolling 10-Year S&P 500 Index Total Return Quarterly Data 1951-12-31 to 2015-12-31 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Correlation Coefficient since 1951-12-31 = 0.93 Concept Courtesy of Philosophical Economics Equity as a Percentage of Household Financial Assets (Scale Left, Includes Mutual Funds and Pensions) 2015-12-31 = 51.8% Subsequent Rolling 10-Year S&P 500 Index Total Return (Scale Right, Inverted) 2005-12-31 = 7.2% Source: Federal Reserve Board, Mutual Fund Source: Investment Company Institute, www.ici.org, S&P Dow Jones Indices
  10. 10. TODAY 1.  QuantCon 2015 2.  Asset Allocation 3.  Yield in a 2% World 4.  Omaha!
  11. 11. Guru Allocations
  12. 12. Asset Allocations Stocks Bonds Real Assets 60 / 40 60 40 All Seasons 30 55 15 Permanent 25 50 25 GAA 46 38 16 Arnott 30 40 30 Marc Faber 25 25 50 El-Erian 51 17 32
  13. 13. Risk and Returns – 1973 -2013
  14. 14. Emotional Investing
  15. 15. Emotional Investing
  16. 16. TODAY 1.  QuantCon 2015 2.  Asset Allocation 3.  Yield in a 2% World 4.  Omaha!
  17. 17. Global Yields US 1.6% Developed 1.2% Emerging 5.9% World 3.5% High Yield 7.5% (1-6% normal spread)
  18. 18. TODAY 1.  QuantCon 2015 2.  Asset Allocation 3.  Yield in a 2% World 4.  Omaha!
  19. 19. TODAY 1.  Asset Allocation Models 2.  Global Market Valuations 3.  Omaha!
  20. 20. Bonus Idea
  21. 21. CONTACT WEBSITE www.cambriafunds.com PHONE (310) 606-5555 BLOG www.mebfaber.com EMAIL mebane@gmail.com
  22. 22. CONTACT WEBSITE www.cambriafunds.com PHONE (310) 606-5555 BLOG www.mebfaber.com EMAIL mebane@gmail.com

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