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Foreign exchange linked structured products

Quan Risk
Author at Hong Kong
Jul. 15, 2015
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Foreign exchange linked structured products

  1. ZB05 Structured Foreign Exchange Products for Wealth Management Services in Greater China 3 IFPHK CE credits 3 SFC CPT hours 3 MPFA non-core CPD hours Speaker: Dr. LAM Yat Fai (林日辉 博士) Doctor of Business Administration (Finance) CFA CAIA FRM PRM MCSE MCNE 6:30pm to 9:30pm Wednesday 27th August 2014
  2. 2 Why structured FX products? Major structured FX products RMB linked structured products International standards Sales and marketing Customer services Outline
  3. 3 What is structured product? Very complex cash flows Prospectus difficult to understand No risk disclosure Small print in contract High expected return at high risk Mass destructive weapons
  4. 4
  5. 5 Structured products under the SFO A financial instrument with its payoff determined by reference to one or more of the value, rate, level (or a range of value, rate, level) of any type or combination of types of currency, interest, equity, commodity, credit event or index the value, rate, level (or a range of value, rate, level) of any basket of more than one type or combination of types of currency, interest, equity, commodity, credit event or index Excluding bonds, mutual funds and exchanged traded products
  6. 6 Defacto definition Simple financial instruments Without using derivatives Financial instruments with derivatives for hedging Using derivatives solely for hedging purpose Derivatives for profit making Single small or no initial cash outflow Single payoff Structured products A combination of derivatives that results sophisticated payoff structure
  7. 7 Structured treasury products vs structured credit products Treasury structured products Linked to currency rate, interest rate, equity price or commodity price Majority made for and sold to corporate and private banking customers Banks earn service fees Credit structured products Linked to credit events Bank’s own investments Banks earn interest income
  8. 8 Structured FX products Exempted from the SFO if sold by a bank under the supervision of the HKMA The largest category of structured treasury products in terms of transaction volume To capture earning potential under the current environment of extremely low interest rate higher FX volatility
  9. 9 Why structured products? Customized to match the demand from individual investors in terms of return-risk characteristics cash flow patterns Higher return vs lower risk Early cash inflows vs late cash outflows
  10. 10 Evolution of financial products Spot Linear derivatives Forwards and futures Vanilla options European and American, call and put Trading strategies Bull spread, bear spread, butterfly, straddle
  11. 11 Evolution of financial products First generation exotic options Binary, one-touch, no-touch, barrier options Second generation exotic options Corridors, faders, step-up, step-down options Fixed income with embedded options Currency linked deposits Principal protected notes Multiple fixings Accumulator, decumulator, TARF
  12. 12 Why structured FX products? Major structured FX products RMB linked structured products International standards Sales and marketing Customer services Outline
  13. 13 Major structured FX products Retail banking Currency linked deposits Principal protected notes Corporate and private banking Accumulators Structured forwards Pivots
  14. 14 Currency linked deposits At origination Customer makes a term deposit in HKD At maturity If HKD per GBP rate > target rate Customer receives HKD principal + high interest If HKD per GBP rate < target rate Customer receives GBP principal + high interest bought at strike rate Worse performer of a simple HKD deposit and a simple GBP deposit
  15. 15 Currency linked deposits Objective To seek high return under a low interest environment Psychologically acceptable to receive the foreign currency Risk To acquire foreign currency at the target rate above the market rate at maturity Similar to investing in foreign currency Trade off Give up the potentially higher return of currency rate
  16. 16 Principal protected notes At origination Customer makes a term deposit At maturity Customer receives the principal Interim regular interest Linked to the performance of underlying currency rate
  17. 17 Principal protected notes Objective To reserve the investment principal With a potential to earn higher coupon rate Risk To loss the interest Hidden vulnerability Chance of getting high coupon return is very very small
  18. 18 Accumulators At origination Customer makes a longer term deposit in USD Every month If USD per GBP rate > strike rate Customer receives USD principal + high interest If USD per GBP rate < strike rate Customer receives GBP principal + high interest bought at strike rate
  19. 19 Accumulators Objective To seek high return under a low interest environment Psychologically acceptable to receive the foreign currency One deposit amount for multiple fixings Risk To acquire foreign currency at the strike rate above the market rate on fixing dates Similar to investing in foreign currency Trade off Give up the potentially higher return of currency rate
  20. 20 Structured forwards At origination The customer makes no deposits Every month If USD per GBP rate > strike rate Customer receives Notional principal x (Spot rate – strike rate) x P If USD per GBP rate < strike rate Customer pays Notional principal x (Strike rate - spot rate) x Q
  21. 21 Structured forwards Objective To bet on the direction of currency rate One contract with multiple bets Risk Payment to bank when currency rate < strike rate on fixing dates Similar to investing in several long/short currency option contracts
  22. 22 Pivots At origination The customer receives upfront cash Every month If USD per GBP rate > upper strike rate Customer pays Notional principal x (Spot rate – upper strike rate) If USD per GBP rate < lower strike rate Customer pays Notional principal x (Lower strike rate - spot rate)
  23. 23 Pivots Objective To receive upfront cash To bet on the stability of currency rate One contract with multiple bets Risk Payment to bank when currency rate move beyond the strike boundaries on fixing dates Similar to enter several short positions in call and put options
  24. 24 Why structured FX products? Major structured FX products RMB linked structured products International standards Sales and marketing Customer services Outline
  25. 25 RMB as underlying currency China trade emerges RMB becomes popular in Taiwan and Hong Kong Companies using RMB as transaction currency Outlook of appreciation of RMB Controlled free trade on RMB Offshore RMB – CNH
  26. 26 Customer base Companies with businesses in mainland China Individuals with investments in mainland China Wealthy Chinese as an emerging sector of private banking Downside risk: forced to acquire RMB at a unknown price
  27. 27 CNY/CHN TARF Linked to performance of CNY or CNH When customer’s profit has accumulated to an upper limit, the contract terminates immediately A variation of upper knock-out barrier Customer Profit target is met Principal is collected early than maturity Bank Reduce the hedging cost (period) Pursue the customer enter another deal
  28. 28 Target accrual redemption forward Bull and bear TARF Dual-strike TARF Gap TARF TARF Pivot
  29. 29 Bull and bear TARF
  30. 30 Dual-strike TARF
  31. 31 Gap TARF
  32. 32 TARF pivot
  33. 33 Why structured FX products? Major structured FX products RMB linked structured products International standards Sales and marketing Customer services Outline
  34. 34 SSPA classification of structured products
  35. 35
  36. 36 Yield enhancement With capped upside potential Without capital guarantee Aim to generate a high return relative to treasury yield Risk comparable to their underlying assets in case of adverse market conditions The largest category of structured products
  37. 37
  38. 38 Capital protection Guarantee the redemption of the invested principal at maturity Participate to a certain degree in the performance of underlying risky assets
  39. 39
  40. 40 Participation Closely linked to the performance of their underlying currency rates, volatility and/or correlation Sometimes feature a conditional downside protection or a leveraged upside
  41. 41 Why structured FX products? Major structured FX products International standards RMB linked structured products Sales and marketing Customer services Outline
  42. 42 Sales and marketing Sales Retail banking Corporate banking Private banking Bank branches and subsidiaries in China and Taiwan Marketing Nice features of a structured product Strong sales channels – the dominating factor
  43. 43 Customers’ preferred characteristics of SP Looked like a deposit Low initial cash outflow Initial cash inflow Shorter term, usually with maturity less than one year High nominal yield Early termination when subject to sufficient earnings Never loss Large safety zone Large potential loss only at extremity Psychological comfort when suffering from loss Rebate, air bag, early termination
  44. 44 Payoff diagram
  45. 45 Risk-return alternation Treasuries Cash outflow: principal Interim cash inflows: fixed 0.5% semi annual interests Principal protected Cash outflow: principal Semi annual interests invested in options Interim cash inflows: 0% to 10% semi annual interests
  46. 46 Zero cost product Bankers’ Trust vs P&G Long a call option at an upper strike Short many put option at a very small lower strike Total cost = Call price - many put price = 0 Eventually, the underlying asset price moves below the lower strike P&G incurred a huge loss P&G sued Bankers’ Trust for hiding the risk
  47. 47 Major sales channels Commercial bank Corporate banking “Nominal” hedging Private banking Professional Investor under the SFO Corporate private banking Private banking customer in legal form of a company dedicated for investments Wealth management services Wealthy retail banking customers
  48. 48 Risk assessment of investing in structured products Market risk Sensitivity to underlying currency Credit risk Default of structured product issuer Operational risk Very tedious settlement procedure Liquidity risk No secondary market due to high degree of customization Legal risk Lengthy contract with difficulty to understand legal terms
  49. 49
  50. 50 Risk assessment of treasury products Hedging instruments which are only allowed to be acquired by Professional Investors under the regulatory guidelines from the HKMA and/or SFC. 5 Any hedging instruments with currency and/or interest rate as underlying and with payoff more complex than that exhibited by currency options and interest rate derivatives with first generation exotic payoffs. These hedging instruments may be resulted by combining a few hedging instruments in Levels, 1, 2, and/or 3, and with other additional and/or customized features embedded. These hedging instruments are not prohibited from being sold to customers not classified as Professional Investors, under the regulatory guidelines from the HKMA and/or SFC. 4 Currency options and interest rate derivatives with first generation exotic payoffs, and packages combining (a) a single currency option or a single interest rate derivatives, up to first generation exotic payoff, and (b) its underlying and/or cash positions to form a slightly adjusted first generation exotic payoff. 3 Vanilla currency options and interest rate derivatives with optionality.2 Vanilla currency and interest rate derivatives without optionality.1 DescriptionLevel
  51. 51 Why structured FX products? Major structured FX products International standards Sales and marketing RMB linked structured products Customer services Outline
  52. 52 Revenue model Financial engineering – investment bank Construct with liquid underlying currency and vanilla options at a lower cost Sell to a wholesaler at a higher price Pocket the price-cost differential Hedge through out the life of the structured product Subject to market risk and operational risk Intermediary – commercial bank Buy from an investment bank at a lower cost Sell to a customer at a higher price Pocket the price-cost differential Subject to operational risk and credit risk
  53. 53 Cost model Sales and marketing Customer services Hedging Raw material Hedging Back-to-back Labour – traders Settlement Technology
  54. 54 Raw material cost Component approach Decomposition into component options and deposits Structured product = Sum of components Monte Carlo simulation Exotic payoff which cannot be deposited into components
  55. 55 Monte Carlo pricing
  56. 56 Pricing Price = Cost x (1 + profit margin) Too cheap Loss on each sale Too expensive No customer Completion among banks force the convergence of price
  57. 57 Market risk management Static hedge Back-to-back hedge the entire structured products Lower risk, lower profit and fixed hedging cost Dynamic hedge Continuous Delta and Vega hedges with liquid underlying currency and vanilla options Higher risk, higher potential profit at variable hedging cost Semi-static hedge Periodically re-balance with quantitative models Component hedge Decomposition into component options and deposits Static, dynamic or semi-static hedge selected components Hybrid hedge A combination of dynamic, semi-static and component hedge
  58. 58 Credit risk management Customer deposits collaterals of high liquidity to the bank The bank grants a credit line to the customer, covering the Upfront cash outflow Unrealized loss Potential future loss Credit limit determined by value of vanilla collaterals loss from structured products discounted gain from structured products
  59. 59 Current exposure vs potential exposure Potential exposure Current exposure
  60. 60 Notional method ( ) N k k=1 k EAD Notional principal of component option = in short position × margin conversion factor Credit expsoure = EAD + Total unrealized loss - Total unrealized gain × 1 - hair cut                   ∑
  61. 61 Portfolio netting [ ] N k k=1 N k k=1 Current expsoure with netting = Max - Market value , 0 Current expsoure without netting = Max - Market value , 0 Net-gross ratio Current expsoure with netting = Current expsoure without net       ∑ ∑ ting
  62. 62 Basel III current exposure method ( ) N k k=1 k EAD = Current expsoure with netting + 0.4 + 0.6 × Net-gross ratio Notional principal × × Credit conversion factor Credit expsoure = EAD + Total unrealized loss - Total unrealized gain × 1 - hai       ∑ ( )r cut
  63. 63 Credit conversion factor for OTC derivatives 15.012.010.0Other commodities 8.07.07.0Precious materials except gold 10.08.06.0Equity 7.55.01.0Currency rate and gold 1.50.50.0Interest rate Longer than 5 year (%) 1 to 5 years (%) Up to 1 year (%) Residual maturity
  64. 64 Operational risk Mis-selling Over promising return Hiding risk Variable payoff Different on every payment Terms and conditions Human language insufficient to describe mathematical payoff Cross copying among banks
  65. 65 Other back office functions Settlement Decompose a structured product into many fixings To be settled on individual fixing basis Very tedious due to the variable payoff Subject to high operational risk General ledger Each fixing generate one set of GL transactions A challenging topic to accountants
  66. 66 Portfolio management Settled fixings Position Realized profit and loss Unsettled fixings Potential cash inflows/outflows Hedging Offsetting transactions Offsetting components
  67. 67 Documentation Deal contract Deal confirmation Fixing ticket Ad-hoc, day-end and month end statements Online enquiry
  68. 68 Q & A
  69. 69 Thank You
  70. 70 Upcoming IFPHK Continuing Education Programs: http://www.ifphk.org/CEP/ce-calendar Institute of Financial Planners of Hong Kong 13/F, Causeway Bay Plaza 2, 463 - 483 Lockhart Road, Hong Kong Tel: 2982 7888 Fax: 2982 7777 Email: education@ifphk.org Website: www.ifphk.org
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