Mozer Methods Of Valuation

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3rd Technology Commercialization Conferance Amman
Mozer Methods Of Valuation

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  • At page 18, what is the meaning of '+' sign? I think, it should be technology valuation may have 2 types... 1. value of protected rights 2. value of unprotected rights like trade secret....
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Mozer Methods Of Valuation

  1. 1. © Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Valuation 2007 Valuing your IP: What is it worth? Methods of Valuation: Which Type is Right for You? Amman, October 31, 2007 Prof. Dr. Ulrich Moser, TAGValuation Khaled Sewiti, TAGValuation
  2. 2. IP Valuation Methods Agenda <ul><li>Introduction to IP Valuation </li></ul><ul><li>Basic Valuation Concepts </li></ul><ul><li>Application of Income Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Reasonableness of Valuation Result </li></ul><ul><li>Appendix: Case Study </li></ul>
  3. 3. 1 Introduction to IP Valuation
  4. 4. Basics on IP Valuation <ul><li>Intellectual Property and Intangible Assets </li></ul><ul><li>Subject Asset </li></ul><ul><li>Purpose of Valuation </li></ul>Agenda
  5. 5. Types of Intangible Assets <ul><li>Supplier Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Favorable Contracts </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Patents </li></ul><ul><li>Know How </li></ul><ul><li>Human Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Assembled Workforce </li></ul><ul><li>Sales Force </li></ul><ul><li>Process Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Organization </li></ul><ul><li>Computer Software </li></ul><ul><li>Customer Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Customer Relationships </li></ul><ul><li>Trademark </li></ul><ul><li>Distribution Network </li></ul><ul><li>Investor Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Relationships </li></ul>Location Capital
  6. 6. Classification of IFRS 3 / FAS 141 Examples of intangible assets to be valued separately For the valuation, usually an external appraisal is used <ul><li>Marketing-related intangible assets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trade marks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internet domain names </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-competition agreements </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Customer-related intangible assets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer lists </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Order or production backlog </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer contracts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer relationships </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Artistic-related intangible assets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plays </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Books </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pictures </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Contract-based intangible assets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Licensing, royalty agreements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leasing agreements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broadcasting rights </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology-based intangible assets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Patented and unpatended technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Databases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Secret formulas, processes </li></ul></ul>Starting point is a strict identification process!!
  7. 7. Fair Values - January 1, 200X Goodwill E N T I T Y E N T I T Y Market Value of Equity Market Value of Debt Assets and Liabilities of an Enterprise Working Capital Tangible Fixed Assets Portfolio Proprietary Technology TM Patents Intellectual Property Rights Contracts Customer Relationship … Software
  8. 8. Valuation of Enterprise vs. Valuation of Assets January 1, 200X Goodwill E N T I T Y E N T I T Y Market Value of Equity Market Value of Debt <ul><li>Implications </li></ul><ul><li>Asset to be valued is part </li></ul><ul><li>of a portfolio of assets </li></ul><ul><li>(= Enterprise) </li></ul><ul><li>The portfolio of assets </li></ul><ul><li>generates a cash flow </li></ul><ul><li>Contribution of Subject </li></ul><ul><li>Asset has to be Identified </li></ul>Working Capital Tangible Fixed Assets Portfolio Proprietary Technology TM Patents Intellectual Property Rights Contracts Customer Relationship … Software
  9. 9. Purpose of Valuation License Purchase/Sale Transactions Debt / Equity Strategic alliance … Transaction Price Financial and tax purposes IAS/IFRS-/ US GAAP-Accounting (Purchase Price Allocation and Impairment Test) Communication internal external (capitalmarket) Portfolio Management Corporate Strategy Collateral Business Intellectual Property Finance
  10. 10. 2 Basic Valuation Concepts
  11. 11. Basic Valuation Concepts Future benefits are the driver of the value of assets Net Present Value Discounted Cash-flow methods Expected income of an alternative investment Income Approach Market Price Market Transaction Method Judgement of others in the marketplace Market Approach Reproduction Cost Replacement Cost Amount of Expenses Cost Approach Real Options Approach
  12. 12. Methodology of Income Approach Time Historical Performance Financial Projections Capitalizing with Cost of Capital Future Cash Flows of the Subject Asset DCF – Method Net Present Value
  13. 13. Market Approach – Basic Idea Valuation of an asset using known transaction prices of comparable assets Example: Application of Sales Multiples Sales Comparable Asset Transaction Price Comparable asset Sales Asset to be valued Market Vaue Asset to be valued Value Asset to be valued = Transaction Price Comparable Sales Comparable * Sales Asset to be valued
  14. 14. 3 Application of Income Approach
  15. 15. Application of Income Approach <ul><li>Analysis of Subject Asset - Example Patent Protected Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of Income Contribution of Subject Asset </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Valuation Methods Based on Income Approach </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Determination of Discount Rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tax Amortization Benefit </li></ul></ul>Agenda
  16. 16. Examples “Packaging”/ “Insulation sleeve” Packaging Insulation Sleeve EP 1 362 793 A2
  17. 17. Characteristics of Patents – Analysis of Value Drivers <ul><li>Strategic Alignment </li></ul><ul><li>Availability of Comparable Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Stage of development </li></ul><ul><li>Innovativeness </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Lifecycle </li></ul><ul><li>Legal status / Validity </li></ul><ul><li>Claim Coverage </li></ul><ul><li>Territorial scope </li></ul><ul><li>Age </li></ul>Legal Protection Technology <ul><li>Strategic Alignment </li></ul><ul><li>Product Lifecycle </li></ul><ul><li>Protected Coverage </li></ul>Product/Process Commercialization Patent value Realization Market potential Industry structure Exploitation Business use Potential Future Use Blocking Competitive advantages Exclusivity Freedom-to-Operate Market share Margin Complementary Assets Solution Value of unprotected technology Value of protection rights
  18. 18. Value of a Patent Patent Value = Value of Protected Technology Value of protection rights <ul><li>Value of Business Unit </li></ul><ul><li>Owning the patent </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of Protection Rights </li></ul>Value of not patent protected technology <ul><li>Lack of Protection </li></ul><ul><li>Rights </li></ul><ul><li>Trade Secret </li></ul><ul><li>Availability of </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul>+ =
  19. 19. Valuation of the Protected Technology Products Competitor Patent- portfolio Patente Pa 3 Pa 5 Pa 1 Pa 7 Pa 4 Pa 6 Pa 2 P 1 P 2 P 1 P 2 Improvements, Features Fundamental Invention P 3 Complementary Protection Valuation of Patent Portfolio or Single Patents Know How
  20. 20. Overview Time Historical Performance Financial Projections Capitalizing with Cost of Capital / Return Rate on Asset Future Cash Flows of the Subject Asset DCF – Method Net Present Value <ul><li>Three Steps </li></ul><ul><li>Analyse the Cash Flows </li></ul><ul><li>Project Future Cash Flows </li></ul><ul><li>Estimate Capitalization Rate </li></ul>
  21. 21. Analysis of Free Cash Flows of Business Unit Sales ./. Cost of Sales ./. SG&A Operating Profit ./. Tax NOPLAT ./. Changes WC ./. CapEx Free Cash Flow Market potential Market Share <ul><li>Incremental Income Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Revenues </li></ul><ul><li>Decreased Costs </li></ul>Industry Structue Competitive Advantages Business Value Capitalization <ul><li>Royalty Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Relief-from-Royalty </li></ul><ul><li>Profit split </li></ul><ul><li>Royalty Income </li></ul>Residual Value / Excess Earnings IP Valuation Models Financial Impact of (Un-) Protected Technology on Free Cash Flows Other Approaches
  22. 22. Incremental Income Analysis (Premium Prices, Cost Savings) Sales ./. Cost of Sales ./. SG&A Operating Profit ./. Tax NOPLAT ./. Changes WC ./. CapEx Free Cash Flow Market potential Market Share <ul><li>Basic Assumption </li></ul><ul><li>Comparable business unit without </li></ul><ul><li>protected technology is available </li></ul>Industry Structue Competitive Advantages Business Value Capitalization <ul><li>Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Comparison of FCF based on protected </li></ul><ul><li>technology and FCF not applying </li></ul><ul><li>subject asset </li></ul>Comments Analysis Impact of (Un-) Protected Technology on Free Cash Flows <ul><li>Application is limited! </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. cost reductions realized by </li></ul><ul><li>process patents (?) </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. price premium for a product </li></ul><ul><li>feature – caused by patent or </li></ul><ul><li>trademark </li></ul>
  23. 23. Residual Value Method / Excess Earnings (Formula Method) January 1, 200X Asset to be valued E N T I T Y E N T I T Y Market Value of Equity Market Value of Debt Enity Value (Income Approach) ./. Value of all other assets (e.g. Fixed assets, trademarks, Contracts) = Value of asset to be valued Valuation of Core Asset Application is limited - Example Contribution to a joint venture Other interpretations of approach Assump t i ons Risk of overerstimating Working Capital Tangible Fixed Assets Portfolio Proprietary Technology TM 2 TM 1 Intellectual Property Rights Contracts Customer Relationship … Software
  24. 24. Approaches to Calculate Residual Value Income of Business Unit Entity Value of Business Unit Capitalization Excess Earnings Approach Residual Value Approach ./. Value of all Other Assets, e.g. Tangible Fixed Assets, Working Capital, Trademarks Residual Value Income of Business Unit ./. Contribution of all Other Assets to Income of Business Unit Return on Assets Return of Assets Excess Earnings Capitalization Residual Value ! =
  25. 25. Royalty Method (Relief-from-Royalty, Profit Split) Sales ./. Cost of Sales ./. SG&A Operating Profit ./. Tax NOPLAT ./. Changes WC ./. CapEx Free Cash Flow Royalty Income <ul><li>Basic Assumption </li></ul><ul><li>Availability of comparable licensing </li></ul><ul><li>transactions and detailed data </li></ul>Saving of Royalty Payments Business Value Capitalization <ul><li>Approach => hybrid </li></ul><ul><li>Applying Market Transactions </li></ul><ul><li>Applying profit split analysis </li></ul>Comments Analysis of Royalty Savings <ul><li>Application </li></ul><ul><li>Risk of underestimating value </li></ul><ul><li>Royalty Income </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of market transactions </li></ul><ul><li>Favourable or unfavourable contract </li></ul>
  26. 26. Project Future Cash Flows - Application of Lifecycle Analysis Typical Life Cycle- models D A T A Plausibility check of data Modelling Price Volume 1 Research Studies Benchmarks Analysis of Products Analysis of Technology 2 3 4 5 Business Plan business industry
  27. 27. Determination of Capitalization Rate Januar 1, 200X Goodwill Market Value of Equity Debt Intangible Assets X Cost of Equity X Cost of Debt (after Tax) Asset specific Risik high low Rate of Return on individual Asset Weighted Average Cost of Capital Asset Specific Risk Premium = + / - Weighted Average Rate of Return on total Assets Weighted Average Cost of Capital = Working Capital Tangible Fixed Assets
  28. 28. WACC to WARA – Example Weighted Average Cost of Capital to Weighted Average Return on Assets
  29. 29. Determination of Weighted Average Cost of Capital – WACC (1-t) = Tax shield
  30. 30. Definition of Cost of Equity Application of Capital Asset Pricing Model Risikfree Rate i Market Risik Premium (r m – i) ß (Measure for Systematic Risik) Cost of Equity r E + .
  31. 31. Industry Specific ß-Factors
  32. 32. Tax Amortisation Benefit (TAB) Maximum Amount to be Payed for an Asset Tax Deductability of Purchased Asset: Net Present Value of future tax benefits based on depreciation/amortisation of purchase price Incremental Income + Residual Value + Relief-from- Royalty + Market Approach - Cost Approach (+/-) Purchase Price Allocation Asset Deal – Share Deal?
  33. 33. Tax Amortisation Benefit - Basics Fair Value = NPV (FCF) + TAB TAB = t * NPV (Depreciation) Depreciation = Fair Value / n TAB = NPV (Fair Value / n) Fair Value = NPV (FCF) + NPV (Fair Value / n)
  34. 34. Tax Amortisation Benefit - Calculation with (1) (2) (3) (4)
  35. 35. Reasonableness of Valuation Results 4
  36. 36. Plausibility Check of Valuation Results 30 40 50 60 80 70 90 100 80 40 115 15 Value Mio. € Tangible fixed assets Working Capital Patent and Trademark Portfolio Estimate of business value 350 Value of goodwill Business Value Going Concern Other Intanbible Assets
  37. 37. Case Study Packaging Solution Appemdix
  38. 38. Basic Data Case Study
  39. 39. Business Plan „Packaging Solution“ Remaining Useful Life of Patent: 7 Years (2013)
  40. 40. Balance Sheet „Packaging Solution“ December 31, 2006 (Mio. EUR) Goodwill Patents Trademarks Other Intangible Assets E N T I T Y E N T I T Y Market Value of Equity Market Value of Debt to be determined Equity : Ratio of Peer Group 60 : 40 Working Capital 75 Tangible Fixed Assets 100
  41. 41. General Assumptions Market Research Annual Growth Rate after 2009 about 2% Background Mature market, very long lifecycle Technology Research Expectation of new technology after 2013
  42. 42. Application of Income approach Case Study
  43. 43. Analysis of Free Cash Flows of Business Unit Sales ./. Cost of Sales ./. SG&A Operating Profit ./. Tax NOPLAT ./. Changes WC ./. CapEx Free Cash Flow Market potential Market Share <ul><li>Incremental Income Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Revenues </li></ul><ul><li>Decreased Costs </li></ul>Industry Structue Competitive Advantages Business Value Capitalization <ul><li>Royalty Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Relief-from-Royalty </li></ul><ul><li>Profit split </li></ul><ul><li>Royalty Income </li></ul>Residual Value / Excess Earnings IP Valuation Models Financial Impact of (Un-) Protected Technology on Free Cash Flows Other Approaches
  44. 44. Calculation of Weighted Average Cost of Capital
  45. 45. Calculation of Discount Factors 1 1,0908 1 1,0908 1 1,0908 2 1 1,0908 3 1 1,0908 4 1 1,0908 5 1 1,0908 6 1 1,0908 7 Weighted Average Cost of Capital 9,08% Discount Factor
  46. 46. Royalty Analysis Sales ./. Cost of Sales ./. SG&A Operating Profit ./. Tax NOPLAT ./. Changes WC ./. CapEx Free Cash Flow Royalty Income <ul><li>Basic Assumption </li></ul><ul><li>Availability of comparable licensing </li></ul><ul><li>transactions and detailed data </li></ul>Saving of Royalty Payments Business Value Capitalization <ul><li>Approach => hybrid </li></ul><ul><li>Applying Market Transactions </li></ul><ul><li>Applying profit split analysis </li></ul>Comments Analysis of Royalty Savings <ul><li>Application </li></ul><ul><li>Risk of underestimating value </li></ul><ul><li>Royalty Income </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of market transactions </li></ul><ul><li>Favourable or unfavourable contract </li></ul>
  47. 47. Estimation of Royalty Rates Royalty-Rate Royalty Source Research Medical Device 03-Dec-03 Licensee: CH Licensee Business: Licensor: Massachusetts Technology Licensor Business: Academia Royalty Rate, % (low range): 1.50 Royalty Rate, % (high range): 2.00 Upfront Fee:   Licensed Property: This Agreement is made and entered into this day of , 1993. The Licensor hereby grants to LICENSEE the right and license to make, have made, use, lease and sell the LICENSED PRODUCTS and to practice the LICENSED PROCESSES in the TERRITORY for the FIELD OF USE. Technology relates to Case, &quot;&quot;. &quot;PRODUCT AREA&quot; shall mean:.    Compensation Detail: Royalty: For LICENSED PRODUCTS and LICENSED PROCESSES which do not contain substantial technical contribution, improvement, or change developed by LICENSEE, Running Royalties in an amount equal to Two Percent (2%) of the NET SALES of the LICENSED PRODUCTS leased or sold by LICENSEE and/or its SUBLICENSEE(S). For LICENSED PRODUCTS and LICENSED PROCESSES containing a substantial technical contribution, improvement, or change developed by LICENSEE, Running Royalties in an amount equal to One and One-Half Percent (1.5%) of the NET SALES of the LICENSED PRODUCTS leased or sold by SUBLICENSEE(S), or Twelve Percent (12%) of gross revenue received by LICENSEE from SUBLICENSEE(S), whichever of the two above referenced means of calculating sublicensing revenue yields a smaller number. Source: Form S-1 External Sources EY Sources <ul><li>Anhaltspunkte für die Bestimmung des Lizenzsatzes in den einzelnen Industriezweigen können daraus entnommen werden, daß z. B. im allgemeinen </li></ul><ul><ul><li>in der Elektroindustrie ein Lizenzsatz von 1/2 - 5% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in der Maschinen- und Werkzeugindustrie ein Lizenzsatz von 1/3 - 10% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in der chemischen Industrie ein Lizenzsatz von 2 - 5% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>auf pharmazeutischem Gebiet ein Lizenzsatz von 2 - 10% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>vom Umsatz üblich ist. </li></ul><ul><li>(11) Für den Fall besonders hoher Umsätze kann die nachfolgende, bei Umsätzen über 3 Millionen M einsetzende Staffel als Anhalt für eine Ermäßigung des Lizenzsatzes dienen, wobei jedoch im Einzelfall zu berücksichtigen ist, ob und in welcher Höhe in den verschiedenen Industriezweigen solche Ermäßigungen des Lizenzsatzes bei freien Erfindungen üblich sind. Bei einem Gesamtumsatz </li></ul><ul><li>[ Nach Rückfrage zur Euroumstellung beim Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit wurde am 14. November 2002 folgende Antwort gegeben: &quot;Die Vergütungsrichtlinie ist nicht auf Euro-Beträge umgestellt worden. Insoweit ist darauf hinzuweisen, dass es sich bei dieser Richtlinie nicht um ein Gesetz handelt. DM-Beträge müssen daher entsprechend dem offiziellen Umrechnungskurs auf Euro-Beträge umgerechnet werden.&quot; ] </li></ul><ul><ul><li>von 0-3 Millionen DM keine Ermäßigung des Lizenzsatzes, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>von 3-5 Millionen DM 10% ige Ermäßigung des Lizenzsatzes für den 3 Millionen DM übersteigenden Umsatz, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>von 5-10 Millionen DM 20% ige Ermäßigung des Lizenzsatzes für den 5 Millionen DM übersteigenden Umsatz, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>von 10-20 Millionen DM 30% ige Ermäßigung des Lizenzsatzes für den 10 Millionen DM übersteigenden Umsatz, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>von 20-30 Millionen DM ….. </li></ul></ul>Benchmarks Literature Examples
  48. 48. Projection of Future Revenues Assumptions Sales Projection Annual Growth Rate after 2009 2% Background Mature market, very long lifecycle, expectation of new technology after 2013 Business Plan Extrapolation
  49. 49. Relief-from-Royalty TAB = Tax Amortisation Benefit
  50. 50. Projection of Future Cash Flows <ul><li>Sales Projection </li></ul><ul><li>Annual Growth Rate 2% </li></ul><ul><li>Operating Profit Margin </li></ul><ul><li>Average of Profit Margin </li></ul><ul><li>2006 – 2008 = 16,6% </li></ul>Business Plan
  51. 51. Relief-from-Royalty – Profit Split Analysis TAB = Tax Amortisation Benefit
  52. 52. Incremental Income Analysis Sales ./. Cost of Sales ./. SG&A Operating Profit ./. Tax NOPLAT ./. Changes WC ./. CapEx Free Cash Flow Market potential Market Share <ul><li>Basic Assumption </li></ul><ul><li>Comparable business unit without </li></ul><ul><li>protected technology is available </li></ul>Industry Structue Competitive Advantages Business Value Capitalization <ul><li>Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Comparison of FCF based on protected </li></ul><ul><li>technology and FCF not applying </li></ul><ul><li>subject asset </li></ul>Comments Analysis Impact of (Un-) Protected Technology on Free Cash Flows <ul><li>Application is limited! </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. cost reductions realized by </li></ul><ul><li>process patents (?) </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. price premium for a product </li></ul><ul><li>feature – caused by patent or </li></ul><ul><li>trademark </li></ul>
  53. 53. Incremental Income Analysis TAB = Tax Amortisation Benefit Application of incremental income analysis is critical! The key issue is to identify the Incremental Income.
  54. 54. Residual Value Method / Excess Earnings (Formula Method) January 1, 200X Asset to be valued E N T I T Y E N T I T Y Market Value of Equity Market Value of Debt Enity Value (Income Approach) ./. Value of all other assets (e.g. Fixed assets, trademarks, Contracts) = Value of asset to be valued Valuation of Core Asset Application is limited - Example Contribution to a joint venture Other interpretations of approach Assump t i ons Risk of overerstimating Working Capital Tangible Fixed Assets Portfolio Proprietary Technology TM 2 TM 1 Intellectual Property Rights Contracts Customer Relationship … Software
  55. 55. Residual Value & Excess Earnings Approach Income of Business Unit Entity Value of Business Unit Capitalization Excess Earnings Approach Residual Value Approach ./. Value of all Other Assets, e.g. Tangible Fixed Assets, Working Capital, Trademarks Residual Value Income of Business Unit ./. Contribution of all Other Assets to Income of Business Unit Return on Assets Return of Assets Excess Earnings Capitalization Residual Value ! =
  56. 56. Calculation of Residual Value TAB = Tax Amortisation Benefit
  57. 57. Residual Value & Excess Earnings Approach Income of Business Unit Entity Value of Business Unit Capitalization Excess Earnings Approach Residual Value Approach ./. Value of all Other Assets, e.g. Tangible Fixed Assets, Working Capital, Trademarks Residual Value Income of Business Unit ./. Contribution of all Other Assets to Income of Business Unit Return on Assets Return of Assets Excess Earnings Capitalization Residual Value ! =
  58. 58. Calculation of Excess Earnings Approach TAB = Tax Amortisation Benefit
  59. 59. Calculation of Income Contribution of Other Assets: Contributory Asset Charges Deduction of Other Assets Using Contributory Asset Charges
  60. 60. Interpretation of Valuation Results
  61. 61. Tax Amortisation Benefit - Modelling
  62. 62. Contact Prof. Dr. Ulrich Moser TAGValuation Erfurt University of Applied Sciences (Germany) WP/StB/CVA Tel.: +962 6 5100600 Fax: +962 6 510-0601 E-Mail: u.c.moser@t-online.de
  63. 63. Contact Khalid Sweiti TAGValuation Manager CPA Amman-Jordan Tel.: +962 6 5100600 Fax: +962 6 510-0601 E-Mail: ksweiti@tagvaluation.com

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