Page 1 of 5
Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume
The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 73.42 points, or 0.79%, dur...
Page 2 of 5
News
Economic News
 Emir issues amended decree to form SCEAI – Qatar‟s Emir
HH Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Than...
Page 3 of 5
Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Most Acti...
Page 4 of 5
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QE Index continued its upward move last week, breachi...
Contacts
Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui
Head of Trading Head of Sales Head of Research Manag...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Weekly Market Report

215 views

Published on

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
215
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Weekly Market Report

  1. 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 73.42 points, or 0.79%, during the week, to close at 9,372.75 points. Market capitalization rose by 0.63% to reach QR515.4 billion (bn) as compared to QR512.2bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed companies, 24 companies ended the week higher, 16 fell and 2 remained unchanged. Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS) was the best performing stock with a gain of 3.18%; the stock is up 22.43% year-to-date (YTD). United Development Company (UDCD) was the top decliner, down 3.68%; the stock is still up 25.00% YTD. Qatar lifts 2013 GDP growth forecast to 5.3%. According to a report released by the General Secretariat for Development Planning (GSDP), Qatar's real GDP growth in 2013 is forecasted to increase to 5.3% from the earlier 4.8%. The GSDP cited changes to Qatar‟s expected output of oil & gas in 2013 as the key driver behind this increase. Further, the report indicated that 4.5% growth is predicted for 2014. We note that the QNB Group continues to forecast real GDP growth of 6.5% and 6.8% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Qatari earnings season set to start. For the benefit of readers, we highlight second quarter 2013 (2Q2013) estimates for key QE companies. For Industries Qatar (IQCD), we forecast earnings per share (EPS) of QR3.57 versus QR4.21 for 1Q2013, a decline of 15.3% quarter-over- quarter (QoQ), but a growth of 1.4% year-over-year (YoY). For Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS), we expect EPS of QR3.47, an increase of 72.9% (flat YoY). For Qatar Gas Transport Co. (Nakilat or QGTS), we forecast EPS of QR0.38, up 20.0% QoQ (up 4.1% YoY). For Milaha (QNNS), we predict EPS of QR1.85, down 38.4% QoQ (up 35.0% YoY). For the banking sector, we expect a mixed bag of results. For Masraf Al Rayan (MARK), we forecast EPS of QR0.56 versus QR0.53, a growth of 4.3% QoQ (up 12.3% YoY). For Doha Bank (DHBK), we forecast EPS of QR1.43, a decline of 6.7% QoQ (up 5.4% YoY). For Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK), we forecast EPS of QR1.42, a growth of 15.1% QoQ (down 4.0% YoY). For Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK), we forecast EPS of QR1.19, a decline of 2.4% QoQ (up 9.9% YoY). Equity trading value during the week decreased by 24.67% to reach QR972.2 million (mn), as compared to QR1,290.7mn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 42.82% of the total equity trading value. Equity trading volume decreased by 31.03% to reach 19.5mn shares, as against 28.3mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions fell by 18.16% to reach 12,377 transactions versus 15,124 transactions in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 32.63% of the total volume. Foreign institutions remained bearish for the week with overall net selling of QR70.1mn (including T-bills) versus. net selling QR100.0mn in the prior week. Foreign individuals bought QR17.0mn (including T-Bills) versus net selling of QR15.5mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR69.2mn versus net buying of QR142.6mn in the prior week. Qatari individuals remained sellers with net selling of QR16.3mn as compared to QR27.1mn in the prior week. Market Indicators Week ended July 04, 2013 Week ended June 27, 2013 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 972.2 1,290.7 (24.7) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 515,421.9 512,210.4 0.6 Volume (mn) 19.5 28.3 (31.0) Number of Transactions 12,377 15,124 (18.2) Companies Traded 41 40 2.5 Market Breadth 24:16 21:19 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 13,390.69 0.8 1.0 18.4 All Share Index 2,370.30 0.7 0.9 17.7 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,277.01 1.4 1.8 16.8 Industrials 3,113.10 0.4 0.4 18.5 Transportation 1,699.47 1.9 1.9 26.8 Real Estate 1,823.37 (1.9) (1.2) 13.1 Insurance 2,213.01 (1.5) (0.9) 12.7 Telecoms 1,274.25 0.3 0.1 19.6 Consumer 5,510.55 0.7 0.3 18.0 Al Rayan Islamic Index 2,799.29 (0.3) (0.1) 12.5 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 9,372.17 0.8 1.0 12.1 267.00 141,534.8 11.9 1.7 4.9 Dubai 2,264.14 1.9 1.9 39.5 370.10 58,372.27 14.6 0.9 3.7 Abu Dhabi 3,562.69 0.6 0.3 35.4 372.73 102,736.6 10.7 1.3 4.9 Saudi Arabia* 7,668.58 2.2 2.3 12.8 6,396.03 402,997.1# 16.3 2.0 3.6 Kuwait 7,962.50 0.6 2.4 34.2 638.98 108,562.8 21.7 1.3 3.7 Oman 6,440.84 1.7 1.6 11.8 81.11 22,517.6 10.6 1.6 4.3 Bahrain 1,191.32 0.2 0.3 11.8 6.25 21,250.0 8.7 0.8 4.1 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( # Saudi Arabia figures as of July 3, 2013)) 9,275.56 9,330.54 9,368.60 9,367.54 9,372.17 0 3,000,000 6,000,000 9,220 9,300 9,380 30-Jun 1-Jul 2-Jul 3-Jul 4-Jul Volume QE Index 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% SaudiArabia Dubai Oman Qatar AbuDhabi Kuwait Bahrain
  2. 2. Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  Emir issues amended decree to form SCEAI – Qatar‟s Emir HH Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani has issued an amended Emiri decree to establish the Supreme Council for Economic Affairs & Investment (SCEAI). Meanwhile, he also issued an Emiri decision restructuring the board of directors of Qatar Investment Authority (QIA). He has named HE Sheikh Abdullah bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani as Vice-Chairman of the QIA. Furthermore, Ahmed Al-Sayed, Managing Director of Qatar Holdings is appointed as Executive Chairman of the QIA. (Bloomberg, Gulf-Times.com, Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Ministry to launch economic surveys – Qatar‟s Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics is set to launch a set of annual economic surveys for 2013. These surveys will cover all large establishments and a sample of small establishments of various economic sectors including public, mixed, private, domestic and foreign. (Peninsula Qatar)  Qatar lifts 2013 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% in 2013 – According to a report released by the General Secretariat for Development Planning (GSDP), Qatar's real GDP growth in 2013 is forecasted to increase to 5.3% from the earlier 4.8%, citing changes to its expected output of oil & gas. Further, the report indicated that 4.5% growth is predicted for 2014. The report said the country‟s pipeline gas production will rise in 2013 and unscheduled shutdowns, which limited the energy output in 2012, are unlikely to be repeated. The report also said that in 2014, upstream oil & gas is expected to reduce as output from maturing oil fields tapers off and gas production hits installed-capacity limits. The GSDP said the Qatar government's fiscal surplus is expected to drop to 4.7% of GDP in 2014 from an upwardly revised 8.1% in 2013. The GSDP also said that the overall surplus is expected to narrow down in 2014 in the wake of the substantial increases in capital spending needed to keep Qatar's infrastructure projects on track. The inflation is expected to be at 3.6% in both 2013 and 2014, up from 1.8% in 2012. Meanwhile, according to a report released by the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS), Qatar‟s GDP at constant prices (inflation-adjusted GDP) is estimated at QR88.4bn in 1Q2013, which shows an increase of 6.2% YoY (+1.6% QoQ). The report showed that the constant price gross value added (GVA) of the Mining & Quarrying sector in 1Q2013 has been estimated at QR37.6bn, indicating an increase of 0.8% YoY. The report also showed that the GVA estimate of non-mining & quarrying sectors, totaled QR50.9bn, showing 10.6% YoY increase in 1Q2013. (Peninsula Qatar, GulfBase.com)  QCB issues QR4bn T-bills – Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has issued treasury bills worth QR4bn on July 2, 2013. Total bids fell to QR6.2bn for all three maturities combined versus QR11.1bn in June 2013. According to the data published by the QCB, yield on 91-day T-bills remained unchanged at 0.82%, while yield for 182-day T-bills went down to 0.97% from 0.98% and for 273-day notes, it went down to 1.01% from 1.04%. (QSA)  Qatar’s PPI in 1Q2013 rose 4.3% QoQ – According to the data released by the Qatar Statistics Authority (QSA), the Producer Price Index (PPI) for 1Q2013 stood at 177.6, showing an increase of 4.3% QoQ. In the “mining” group, the PPI has increased by 4.8%, primarily due to the overall price rise seen in crude oil & natural gas. The PPI for “manufacturing” group increased by 1.8% QoQ due to rising prices in iron & steel products (11.0% QoQ), basic chemicals (3.6%) and cement products (0.2%). On the other hand, a slight reduction has been noticed in grain mill products, beverages and refined petroleum products. The data also showed that the PPI for “electricity & water” showed an increase of 6.4% QoQ, affected by price rise of 11.1% QoQ in water. On a YoY basis, QSA said the PPI for 1Q2013 has shown overall price stability as it registered a marginal increase of 0.1%. (QSA)  Al Sada: Qatar’s petrochem exports to hit 23mn tons by 2020 – The Minister of Energy & Industry HE Dr Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada said Qatar‟s chemical and petrochemical industry‟s investments will further increase the sector‟s export portfolio to 23mn tons per year by 2020. This growth will position Qatar among the top exporters in the globe. (Peninsula Qatar)  Settlement cycle change to boost QE bond market – The Qatar Exchange (QE) Program Manager Roger Warnock said the proposed change in the settlement cycle from T+3 to T+1 for government securities will spur the debt market in Qatar. (Peninsula Qatar)  Qatar Rail project to benefit local private sector – According to a report by Qatar Rail, when implemented, the Doha Metro will provide numerous investment opportunities for the country‟s private sector in construction, operations and maintenance. The project will boost private sector activities in the national GDP by 0.7%. Overall, the country‟s nominal GDP will see an increase of 0.3% in view of the investment opportunities in the mega project. Further, the rail project is expected to create thousands of job opportunities for nationals in particular. (Gulf-Times.com) Market & Corporate News  QGTS’ JV gets $662.4mn refinancing to expand fleet – The Qatar Gas Transport Company (QGTS) said its JV with Angelicoussis Shipping Group Ltd, “Maran Nakilat Company” has obtained $662.4mn in refinancing to expand its fleet of LNG carriers. Maran Nakilat has signed an Islamic refinancing agreement with the Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) and Barwa Bank. This refinancing will help Maran Nakilat to expand its LNG fleet the current four vessels to six, which are expected to be delivered in early 2014. Meanwhile, QGTS has increased its ownership stake in Maran Nakilat. (Bloomberg)  CBQK receives BRSA regulatory approval to acquire Alternatifbank – The Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK) has received the regulatory approval from the Banking Regulation & Supervision Agency (BRSA) for the acquisition of 70.84% shareholding in Alternatifbank from AnadoluEndustri Holding. The final transactions related to the share transfer will be conducted subject to the approval from the Capital Markets Board. (QE)  Fitch: Ooredoo's Myanmar license credit neutral – Fitch said Ooredoo‟s newly awarded Myanmar's license should have no impact on its rating. Ooredoo has won a license in the Myanmar government's recent bid process to build and operate mobile networks in the country. (AME Info)  Ooredoo announces date to pay interest to bondholders – Ooredoo‟s subsidiary, Qtel International Finance Limited (QIFL) will pay interest payments to its global medium term note (GMTN) holders on July 31, 2013. Ooredoo will pay $11.3mn to its $500mn note-holders due on January 31, 2043 and $9.7mn to its $500mn note-holders due on January 31, 2028. (ADX)
  3. 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 3.2% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Qatar Electricity and Water Medicare Group Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) QNB Group Commercial Bank of Qatar -3.7% -3.2% -2.3% -1.3% -1.3% -4.5% -3.0% -1.5% 0.0% United Development Al Ahli Bank Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Qatar Insurance Dlala Holding 238.1 179.0 60.9 53.1 46.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 QNB Group Industries Qatar Masraf Al Rayan United Development Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.3 0.0 1.3 2.5 3.8 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) United Development Masraf Al Rayan QNB Group Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 33.17% 34.28% 25.96% 21.25% 13.47% 12.31% 27.40% 32.17% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 869 600 816 653 53 (53) (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  4. 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index continued its upward move last week, breaching its two resistances of 9,310.0 and 9,354.0. This is seen as a major development for the index. Moreover, the index closed above the 9,354.0 level – a positive sign for the buyers, which indicates that the uptrend is still intact. Going forward, the 9,400.0 level remains to be the next immediate target for the index, which if breached, may spark additional buying interest and lead to a test of the 9,500.0 level. The only sign of concern remains the relatively low volumes as compared to last week .We believe the index may continue to trade higher till the time it holds and closes above the 9,300.0 psychological level. However, traders are advised to keep a close watch on both the levels at 9,400.0 on the upside and 9,300.0 on the downside for any trend reversal or breakout signals. Any sustained weakness below the 9,300.0 level may pull the index to test the 9,200.0 level, followed by support at 9,100.0. Meanwhile, both momentum indicators are mixed with the RSI stalling, while the MACD is moving along the signal line. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  5. 5. Contacts Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Trading Head of Sales Head of Research Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (July 04) % Change 5- Day % Change Monthly Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 162.50 2.20 3.24 113,706 13.4 2.5 3.7 Qatar Islamic Bank 68.50 0.15 0.59 16,186 14.2 1.5 5.5 Commercial Bank of Qatar 70.90 2.01 1.72 17,544 8.6 1.3 8.5 Doha Bank 47.30 0.32 0.85 12,221 8.1 1.2 8.8 Al Ahli Bank 55.20 (3.16) (3.16) 7,015 13.5 2.2 5.4 Qatar International Islamic Bank 54.00 1.31 0.19 8,174 11.9 1.7 6.5 Masraf Al Rayan 27.75 0.18 0.54 20,813 13.4 2.3 3.6 Al Khaliji Bank 16.90 1.50 0.00 6,084 11.7 1.1 5.9 National Leasing 37.10 (0.67) 0.00 1,836 8.9 1.4 5.4 Dlala Holding 26.60 (1.30) (0.56) 591 23.0 2.5 N/M Qatar & Oman Investment 13.70 1.41 0.07 432 21.9 1.4 3.7 Islamic Holding Group 43.40 0.70 0.70 174 27.9 4.2 2.6 Banking and Financial Services 204,773 Zad Holding 60.00 0.67 0.67 785 7.4 0.6 6.7 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 15.91 0.13 (1.00) 184 N/A 1.0 N/M Salam International Investment 13.00 0.00 0.00 1,486 21.8 0.9 5.4 Medicare Group 43.55 2.96 2.96 1,226 26.6 1.6 4.1 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 55.40 0.73 0.73 316 27.7 2.4 3.6 Qatar Fuel 253.90 0.75 0.36 16,496 14.3 3.1 3.9 Qatar Meat and Livestock 63.20 (0.47) (0.32) 1,138 15.1 3.9 6.3 Al Meera Consumer Goods 135.20 (0.15) (1.02) 2,704 17.6 2.3 5.9 Consumer Goods and Services 24,334 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 51.40 0.78 (4.81) 2,035 10.4 1.7 5.8 Qatar National Cement 100.10 1.11 (3.75) 4,915 11.5 2.2 6.0 Industries Qatar 158.30 (0.13) 0.44 95,772 10.5 3.4 4.9 Qatari Investors Group 27.00 0.00 0.56 3,357 19.6 1.7 2.8 Qatar Electricity and Water 162.10 3.18 2.01 16,210 12.0 3.3 4.5 Mannai Corp. 89.00 1.14 1.14 4,060 8.6 1.9 5.4 Aamal 14.34 (0.55) (0.49) 8,604 14.0 1.3 N/M Gulf International Services 41.85 0.48 1.82 6,222 12.2 2.4 3.6 Industrials 141,175 Qatar Insurance 60.20 (1.31) (1.31) 7,732 9.7 1.4 3.3 Doha Insurance 25.90 (0.38) 1.37 667 11.0 1.4 3.5 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 46.60 (2.31) 0.00 2,686 14.7 1.0 1.9 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 44.00 (1.12) (1.12) 751 10.1 1.3 1.9 Qatar Islamic Insurance 61.40 (1.29) (1.29) 921 15.6 3.9 5.7 Insurance 12,757 United Development 22.25 (3.68) (3.26) 7,503 9.4 0.7 4.5 Barwa Real Estate 26.60 (0.75) 0.19 10,351 12.6 0.8 5.6 Ezdan Real Estate 17.40 (0.51) (0.51) 46,153 N/A 1.7 0.7 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 11.35 0.09 0.27 1,135 20.8 1.0 5.3 Real Estate 65,142 Qatar Telecom 121.10 0.50 0.25 38,791 12.3 1.6 4.1 Vodafone Qatar 9.00 (0.66) (1.10) 7,609 N/A 1.2 N/M Telecoms 46,399 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 73.00 1.53 1.39 8,360 9.3 0.8 5.1 Gulf Warehousing 42.00 0.60 2.07 1,998 22.9 2.7 N/M Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 18.72 2.35 2.30 10,483 13.5 6.1 5.3 Transportation 20,841 Qatar Exchange 515,422

×