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QNBFS Daily Technical Trader - Qatar April 20, 2016

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Even though the QSE Index closed in the
green, its movement is confined in the
ranging box. That been said, the Index is
tilted upwards on the intraday chart,
which is positive.

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QNBFS Daily Technical Trader - Qatar April 20, 2016

  1. 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 5 Daily Technical Trader – Qatar Wednesday, 20 April 2016 Today’s Coverage Ticker Price Target QIGD 51.00 54.00 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 10,297.39 0.64 9.5 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 10,400 10,500 10,700 Support 10,250 10,100 10,000 QSE Index Commentary Overview: Even though the QSE Index closed in the green, its movement is confined in the ranging box. That been said, the Index is tilted upwards on the intraday chart, which is positive. Expected Resistance Level: 10,400 Expected Support Level: 10,250 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 19 Apr 18 Apr %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 476.3 285.5 66.8 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 549.4 546.5 0.5 Volume (mn) 15.5 8.6 80.2 Number of Trans. 6,944 4,660 49.0 Companies Traded 38 43 -11.6 Market Breadth 24:12 17:23 – QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 16,660.49 0.6 59.2 All Share Index 2,871.60 0.7 61.6 Banks 2,741.62 -0.4 48.3 Industrials 3,148.78 0.5 56.1 Transportation 2,566.63 0.8 63.1 Real Estate 2,634.32 3.8 68.8 Insurance 4,499.37 -1.2 51.8 Telecoms 1,168.53 0.7 61.0 Consumer Goods 6,737.44 1.3 65.5 Al Rayan Islamic 4,067.51 1.3 63.8 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI WDAM 66.60 9.9 76.8 QCFS 38.70 8.7 76.1 NLCS 20.01 5.9 76.1 MRDS 15.35 0.9 72.2 ERES 19.21 5.5 70.6 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  2. 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 5 QIGD Price % Ch. Volume Last 51.00 3.45 307,778 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 52.00 54.00 57.00 Support 50.00 49.00 46.80 Commentary Overview: We sent a sell recommendation on the name on the 5 th of this month. It reached our first target at QR52.40 (name dropped almost 11% from our recommended selling price at the time). It should be noted that we remain with that view, unless the name breaks above the QR52.00. That break away might start a bounce upwards. Expected Target Price: QR54.00 – QR57.00 Only a price breakaway above QR52.00 triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR49.00 (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  3. 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 5 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 10,297.39 10,150.13 10,192.80 10,219.17 10,261.84 10,304.51 10,330.88 10,373.55 10,129.13 9,943.45 10,731.13 Total Return 16,660.49 16,422.23 16,491.27 16,533.93 16,602.97 16,672.01 16,714.67 16,783.71 16,134.00 15,652.55 16,778.44 All Share 2,871.60 2,842.00 2,850.48 2,855.72 2,864.20 2,872.68 2,877.92 2,886.40 2,766.89 2,683.48 2,877.43 Al Rayan Islamic 4,067.51 3,989.89 4,014.38 4,029.51 4,054.00 4,078.49 4,093.62 4,118.11 3,821.24 3,692.70 4,051.21 Banks & Financials Services MARK 34.75 34.42 34.55 34.63 34.77 34.90 34.98 35.12 35.39 35.20 39.17 CBQK 38.20 37.47 37.81 38.02 38.37 38.71 38.92 39.27 42.46 42.82 48.78 DHBK 36.60 36.30 36.43 36.52 36.65 36.78 36.87 37.00 38.57 39.94 45.32 QIBK 100.00 98.73 99.34 99.72 100.33 100.94 101.32 101.93 101.31 100.87 107.18 QIIK 64.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 68.31 65.72 70.71 Insurance QATI 83.80 82.13 82.63 82.94 83.43 83.93 84.24 84.73 80.43 74.63 77.70 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 116.10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 108.21 108.06 137.87 Industrials IQCD 105.30 104.23 104.58 104.79 105.13 105.48 105.69 106.03 106.14 104.03 115.34 QEWS 208.50 206.83 207.60 208.07 208.83 209.60 210.07 210.83 200.30 200.56 207.38 GISS 35.75 35.05 35.32 35.48 35.75 36.02 36.18 36.45 35.55 41.02 53.02 QIGD 51.00 48.60 49.63 50.27 51.30 52.33 52.97 54.00 43.18 38.22 42.63 Real Estate BRES 34.30 33.83 33.99 34.08 34.23 34.39 34.48 34.63 35.90 36.24 40.89 UDCD 19.00 18.71 18.88 18.98 19.14 19.31 19.41 19.57 20.23 19.87 21.96 ERES 19.21 17.55 18.04 18.35 18.84 19.33 19.64 20.13 16.73 15.79 17.03 MRDS 15.35 14.92 15.11 15.23 15.42 15.61 15.73 15.92 12.85 12.72 14.32 Telecommunication ORDS 91.00 90.07 90.37 90.56 90.87 91.17 91.36 91.67 88.72 81.26 78.79 VFQS 12.58 12.24 12.37 12.45 12.58 12.71 12.79 12.92 11.67 11.52 12.97 Transportation QGTS 23.40 22.99 23.13 23.22 23.35 23.49 23.58 23.71 23.29 22.75 22.85 QNNS 91.90 90.03 90.57 90.90 91.43 91.97 92.30 92.83 92.99 92.55 95.03 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
  4. 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 5 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  5. 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 5 Contacts: Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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