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QNBFS Daily Market Report October 31, 2018


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The QSE Index declined 0.3% to close at 10,163.4.

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QNBFS Daily Market Report October 31, 2018

  1. 1. Page 1 of 9 QSE Intra-Day Movement Qatar Commentary The QSE Index declined 0.3% to close at 10,163.4. Losses were led by the Real Estate and Transportation indices, falling 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively. Top losers were Salam International Investment Limited and Gulf International Services, falling 7.2% and 3.8%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Widam Food Company gained 3.7%, while Qatar Islamic Insurance Group was up 3.6%. GCC Commentary Saudi Arabia: The TASI Index fell 0.2% to close at 7,833.0. Losses were led by the Food & Staples Ret. and Telecom. Serv. indices, falling 1.8% and 1.0%, respectively. Saudi Industrial Export Co. declined 7.8%, while Alahli Takaful Co. was down 3.5%. Dubai: The DFM General Index gained 1.1% to close at 2,743.5. The Real Estate & Const. index rose 1.6%, while the Transportation index gained 1.3%. Khaleeji Commercial Bank rose 6.4%, while Emaar Properties was up 2.9%. Abu Dhabi: The ADX General index fell 0.3% to close at 4,855.9. The Industrial index declined 4.5%, while the Investment & Financial Serv. index fell 0.5%. Reem Investments and RAK Co. for White Cement. were down 10.0% each. Kuwait: The Kuwait Main Market Index rose marginally to close at 4,699.1. The Telecommunications index gained 0.8%, while Insurance index rose 0.3%. Al-Mal Investment Company gained 11.6%, while Manazel Holding was up 9.6%. Oman: The MSM 30 Index fell 0.2% to close at 4,420.7. The Services index declined 0.5%, while the Financial index fell marginally. Al Batinah Power fell 4.2%, while Al Anwar Holding was down 1.9%. Bahrain: The BHB Index fell 0.2% to close at 1,312.9. The Industrial index declined 1.7%, while the Commercial Banks index fell 0.1%. Zain Bahrain declined 2.4%, while Aluminium Bahrain was down 1.7%. QSE Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Widam Food Company 70.10 3.7 55.5 12.2 Qatar Islamic Insurance Group 54.40 3.6 1.6 (1.0) Qatar International Islamic Bank 62.40 3.1 548.4 14.3 Qatar Islamic Bank 149.50 2.5 134.7 54.1 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev. 7.51 1.5 324.5 (16.6) QSE Top Volume Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Qatar First Bank 4.34 (0.5) 1,269.4 (33.5) Qatar International Islamic Bank 62.40 3.1 548.4 14.3 Vodafone Qatar 8.25 (0.6) 487.7 2.9 Masraf Al Rayan 37.84 (0.2) 480.3 0.2 Ezdan Holding Group 10.50 (2.3) 427.8 (13.1) Market Indicators 30 Oct 18 29 Oct 18 %Chg. Value Traded (QR mn) 224.9 231.5 (2.9) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 567,631.5 572,725.4 (0.9) Volume (mn) 6.6 4.7 42.1 Number of Transactions 3,871 2,803 38.1 Companies Traded 41 42 (2.4) Market Breadth 12:24 20:20 – Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E Total Return 17,906.80 (0.3) 0.1 25.3 15.1 All Share Index 2,985.88 (0.7) (0.3) 21.7 15.1 Banks 3,670.42 (0.7) 0.2 36.8 13.8 Industrials 3,345.27 (0.8) (0.8) 27.7 15.9 Transportation 2,134.00 (1.1) (1.3) 20.7 12.5 Real Estate 1,877.61 (1.4) (1.1) (2.0) 17.0 Insurance 3,056.94 (0.6) (0.4) (12.1) 18.2 Telecoms 936.68 (0.2) (1.2) (14.8) 38.0 Consumer 6,983.09 0.2 0.4 40.7 13.8 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,877.30 (0.0) 0.3 13.3 15.2 GCC Top Gainers ## Exchange Close # 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Southern Province Cement Saudi Arabia 32.90 3.9 214.0 (32.0) Saudi Cement Co. Saudi Arabia 38.30 3.5 237.3 (19.2) Abu Dhabi Commer. Bank Abu Dhabi 7.97 3.5 3,456.0 17.2 Emaar Properties Dubai 4.90 2.9 7,918.1 (25.1) VIVA Kuwait Telecom Co. Kuwait 0.74 2.8 187.6 (7.4) GCC Top Losers ## Exchange Close # 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Nat. Industrialization Co Saudi Arabia 17.20 (3.2) 5,065.1 4.9 DP World Dubai 18.34 (2.7) 223.7 (26.6) QNB Group Qatar 185.00 (2.6) 210.0 46.8 Arab National Bank Saudi Arabia 32.45 (2.4) 317.9 31.4 Advanced Petrochem. Co. Saudi Arabia 48.80 (2.2) 192.7 6.3 Source: Bloomberg (# in Local Currency) (## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the S&P GCC Composite Large Mid Cap Index) QSE Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Salam International Inv. Ltd. 4.62 (7.2) 81.0 (32.9) Gulf International Services 18.33 (3.8) 290.7 3.6 Dlala Brokerage & Inv. Holding 10.10 (3.4) 41.0 (31.3) Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 16.00 (3.2) 0.6 (36.0) QNB Group 185.00 (2.6) 210.0 46.8 QSE Top Value Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD% QNB Group 185.00 (2.6) 39,851.5 46.8 Qatar International Islamic Bank 62.40 3.1 33,830.6 14.3 Qatar Islamic Bank 149.50 2.5 20,312.6 54.1 Masraf Al Rayan 37.84 (0.2) 18,199.3 0.2 Industries Qatar 139.50 (0.4) 13,505.6 43.8 Source: Bloomberg (* in QR) Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD% Exch. Val. Traded ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar* 10,163.41 (0.3) 0.1 3.6 19.2 61.76 155,928.4 15.1 1.5 4.3 Dubai 2,743.54 1.1 0.3 (3.2) (18.6) 43.12 98,324.9 7.3 1.0 6.4 Abu Dhabi 4,855.94 (0.3) (0.5) (1.6) 10.4 35.44 132,539.8 12.9 1.4 5.0 Saudi Arabia 7,832.98 (0.2) (0.0) (2.1) 8.4 844.40 498,001.5 16.2 1.7 3.6 Kuwait 4,699.10 0.0 0.0 (0.8) (2.7) 42.54 32,146.0 14.5 0.9 4.4 Oman 4,420.67 (0.2) (0.7) (2.7) (13.3) 5.96 19,099.7 10.2 0.8 6.2 Bahrain 1,312.90 (0.2) (0.2) (1.9) (1.4) 10.21 20,317.0 8.9 0.8 6.2 Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Stock Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Market and Dubai Financial Market (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) 10,150 10,200 10,250 10,300 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
  2. 2. Page 2 of 9 Qatar Market Commentary  The QSE Index declined 0.3% to close at 10,163.4. The Real Estate and Transportation indices led the losses. The index fell on the back of selling pressure from Qatari shareholders despite buying support from GCC and non-Qatari shareholders.  Salam International Investment Limited and Gulf International Services were the top losers, falling 7.2% and 3.8%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Widam Food Company gained 3.7%, while Qatar Islamic Insurance Group was up 3.6%.  Volume of shares traded on Tuesday rose by 42.1% to 6.6mn from 4.7mn on Monday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average of 6mn, volume for the day was 10.9% higher. Qatar First Bank and Qatar International Islamic Bank were the most active stocks, contributing 19.1% and 8.3% to the total volume, respectively. Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (* as a % of traded value) Earnings Releases and Global Economic Data Earnings Releases Company Market Currency Revenue (mn) 3Q2018 % Change YoY Operating Profit (mn) 3Q2018 % Change YoY Net Profit (mn) 3Q2018 % Change YoY Lazurde Company for Jewelry Saudi Arabia SR 481.1 20.3% 15.8 47.0% 3.7 637.5% Saudi Cement Co. Saudi Arabia SR 239.6 -4.2% 80.6 -14.0% 75.4 -13.7% Bawan Co. Saudi Arabia SR 443.8 -12.5% 5.0 -82.8% -4.1 N/A Eastern Province Cement Co. Saudi Arabia SR 122.0 0.0% 7.0 -61.1% 9.0 -35.7% Arabian Scandinavian Insurance Dubai AED – – – – 12.5 109.8% Source: Company data, DFM, ADX, MSM, TASI, BHB. Global Economic Data Date Market Source Indicator Period Actual Consensus Previous 10/30 EU European Commission Economic Confidence October 109.8 110.0 110.9 10/30 EU European Commission Business Climate Indicator October 1.01 1.16 1.21 10/30 EU European Commission Industrial Confidence October 3.0 3.9 4.7 10/30 EU European Commission Services Confidence October 13.6 14.0 14.7 10/30 EU Eurostat GDP SA QoQ 3Q2018 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 10/30 EU Eurostat GDP SA YoY 3Q2018 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 10/30 EU European Commission Consumer Confidence October -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 10/30 Germany German Federal Statistical Office CPI MoM October 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 10/30 Germany German Federal Statistical Office CPI YoY October 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 10/30 France INSEE National Statistics Office GDP QoQ 3Q2018 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 10/30 France INSEE National Statistics Office GDP YoY 3Q2018 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 10/30 France INSEE National Statistics Office Consumer Spending MoM September -1.7% -0.4% 0.8% 10/30 France INSEE National Statistics Office Consumer Spending YoY September -1.5% 0.6% 1.3% 10/30 Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs Jobless Rate September 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% Source: Bloomberg (s.a. = seasonally adjusted; n.s.a. = non-seasonally adjusted; w.d.a. = working day adjusted) Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR) Qatari Individuals 21.81% 49.00% (61,155,351.59) Qatari Institutions 20.97% 14.96% 13,504,571.73 Qatari 42.78% 63.96% (47,650,779.86) GCC Individuals 1.65% 0.89% 1,716,753.78 GCC Institutions 2.79% 2.27% 1,159,848.19 GCC 4.44% 3.16% 2,876,601.97 Non-Qatari Individuals 9.78% 8.82% 2,153,196.00 Non-Qatari Institutions 43.00% 24.05% 42,620,981.89 Non-Qatari 52.78% 32.87% 44,774,177.89
  3. 3. Page 3 of 9 News Qatar  Qatari Amir issues law allowing foreign ownership of property – Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani issues law in which foreigners can own and benefit from property in areas the Cabinet will specify, QNA reported. Qatar pledges $3bn to spur interest in New Free Zones. (Bloomberg)  QNNS' bottom line rises 7.3% YoY and surges QoQ in 3Q2018, in-line with our estimate – Qatar Navigation's (QNNS) net profit rose 7.3% YoY (+174.0% QoQ) to QR102.4mn in 3Q2018, in line with our estimate of QR104.1mn (variation of -1.7%). The QoQ surge was due to less impairments on vessels as QNNS’ EBIT was flat at QR55.6mn. The company's operating revenue came in at QR556.6mn in 3Q2018, which represents an increase of 9.1% YoY (flat QoQ). QNNS, which also goes by the name Milaha, reported 10.1% YoY increase in net profit to QR399.5mn in 9M2018. The company’s operating revenue stood at QR1.8bn in 9M2018, up 9.3% YoY. Milaha Maritime & Logistics’ operating revenue increased by QR21mn, while net profit declined by QR55mn, mainly due to QR43mn in vessel impairments taken in its container shipping unit in the third quarter. Milaha Gas & Petrochem’s operating revenue remained flat compared with the same period last year, while net profit declined by QR135mn mainly due to vessel impairments recorded during the first half of 2018. Milaha Offshore’s operating revenue increased by QR32mn mainly due to increase in vessel utilization, while the bottom line increased by QR67mn due to a decline in impairment charges in 2018 versus the same period last year. Milaha Capital’s net profit increased by QR168mn on the back of higher dividend income and higher financial portfolio trading returns. The company stated it will conduct an investor conference call on November 5 to further discuss its results. (QNBFS Research, QSE,  MCCS' net profit declines 50.7% YoY and 28.7% QoQ in 3Q2018 – Mannai Corporation's (MCCS) net profit declined 50.7% YoY (- 28.7% QoQ) to QR54.4mn in 3Q2018. The company's revenue came in at QR2,514.8mn in 3Q2018, which represents an increase of 18.5% YoY. However, on QoQ basis, revenue fell 5.8%. MCCS reported net profit of QR221.4mn (-20.0% YoY) on revenue of QR7.7bn (+73.1% YoY) in 9M2018. The company’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for the nine month period ended September 30, 2018 rose 32.6% YoY to QR670.6mn. Profit before finance costs increased by 12% in the nine-month period, the net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 20.0% YoY, mainly due to increase in finance costs relating to acquisition funding and higher interest rates. In continuation of the group’s strategy of diversifying its earnings, the group is in the process of acquiring the remaining 3.4% stake in GFI before the end of the year. (QSE,  ZHCD posts 0.2% YoY increase but 50.4% QoQ decline in net profit in 3Q2018 – Zad Holding Company's (ZHCD) net profit rose 0.2% YoY (but declined 50.4% on QoQ basis) to QR32.2mn in 3Q2018. The company's operating revenue came in at QR314.8mn in 3Q2018, which represents an increase of 17.6% YoY (+19.7% QoQ). In 9M2018, ZHCD’s net profit increased marginally to QR147.0mn as compared to QR146.9mn in 9M2017. Operating revenue rose 9.6% YoY to QR869.7mn in 9M2018. EPS remained flat YoY at QR6.20 in 9M2018. (QSE,  The Commercial Bank to finance 65% of Qamco subscription for Qatari customers – The Commercial Bank has announced that it will finance subscriptions to the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of 273,425,880 shares in Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company (Qamco). The IPO, representing 49% of Qamco’s issued share capital, remains open between October 30 and November 12 at an offer price of QR10.1 per share (QR10 nominal value plus QR0.1 offering and listing costs). The Commercial Bank is offering tailored financing of up to 65% of the total value of the Qamco shares, which customers wish to purchase to help them take full advantage of this opportunity. This financing is being offered at zero percent interest until the allocation of surplus shares of the IPO is complete. The minimum number of shares that may be applied for is 50 shares. Larger numbers of shares may be applied for in multiples of 50 up to a maximum of 11,160,200 shares. (  Doha Bank records ‘significant’ interest in QR2.73bn Qamco IPO subscriptions – Doha Bank has already recorded ‘significant’ interest from eligible Qataris in the QR2.73bn Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company (Qamco). “The bank expects more subscribers to come in through the doors before the end of the subscription period,” Doha Bank’s CEO, R Seetharaman said. Doha Bank is offering up to 65% finance to all Qataris and eligible Qatari members of the family subscribing to shares in the Qamco IPO. “We have provided dedicated staff and resources in anticipation of continuing demand across Doha Bank’s domestic network, supporting both the subscription application process and staff to advice on financial solutions,” he said. The IPO subscribers can seek up to 65% finance for the subscription amount from Doha Bank until November 11, 2018, and is subject to the bank’s terms and conditions. The IPO is only open within Qatar to Qatari nationals and selected Qatari institutions. In addition, adult family members and legal guardians can apply to subscribe for shares on behalf of their children and minors. Doha Bank is one of the receiving banks for the IPO and will receive subscriptions from both existing customers and non-customers at all of its branches in Qatar. (  QFZA approves second package of free zone regulations – The Qatar Free Zones Authority’s (QFZA) Board of Directors have approved the second package of the free zone regulations and reviewed progress made so far on the zones infrastructure projects, investment attracting activities and internal processes. The meeting was chaired by HE the Minister of State and Chairman of the Board, Ahmed bin Mohamed Al-Sayed. The regulations approved by the Board of Directors included regulations related to land rents, building permits and planning regulations, and licensing fees and asset leases. The approved regulations will make it easier for local and foreign investors to identify their business activities and submit their applications, according to the Qatar Free Zones Authority. QFZA has invited local and foreign investors interested in investing in Qatar Free Zones to consult the regulations on the authority's website (, or contact the Business Development and
  4. 4. Page 4 of 9 Investors Affairs Department of the Authority at At its previous meeting in July this year, QFZA’s Board of Directors had approved the first package of licensing regulations and registration system of companies in free zones in the country. Also, during the International Products Exhibition and Conference 2018 (IPEC), QFZA announced that it will publish all details and laws relating to free zones before the end of November 2018. (  Amir issues law establishing workers' support and insurance fund – HH the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani has issued Law No 17 of 2018 establishing the Workers' Support and Insurance Fund. The Amir also issued Law No 16 of 2018 regulating the non-Qatari ownership and use of properties, the official QNA reported. According to the provisions of Law No 17 of 2018, a fund under the name ‘Workers’ ‘Support and Insurance Fund’ shall be established with a legal entity. The fund aims to support, ensure and provide care for workers, guarantee their rights and provide a healthy and safe working environment for them. The purpose of the new fund is to pay the workers ‘benefits, which are settled by the labor dispute settlement committees, in order to avoid actions that may take time and affect workers’ ability to fulfill their obligations towards their families or third parties. The fund ensures the rapid payment of financial benefits at the end of the service and the facilitation of the worker's return to his country. The fund benefits both the private sector and domestic workers. The fund will refer to the employer by legal means to recover the amounts owed to him and disburse to the employee. The fund also supports, and sponsors workers by providing a safe and healthy work environment and housing by contributing to the provision of decent housing for workers, and establishment of playgrounds, entertainment venues and social activities. (Gulf-  Qatari insurers making good progress in implementing new IFRS standards – Insurance firms in Qatar are making good progress in preparing to implement changes that will ensure compliance with the new reporting standards such as IFRS 17 and IFRS 9, according to KPMG in Qatar. KPMG in Qatar’s partner and insurance Lead, Yacoub Hobeika said, “Globally, it is clear that insurance firms are making good progress in preparing to implement changes that will ensure compliance with the new reporting standards. In Qatar and the wider region, insurers are currently exploring the impacts of the changes they will have to make and how best to do this. Although implementation can be complex and costly, the benefits will be significant, enabling insurers to take a fresh look at their strategies and financial and actuarial processes.” IFRS 17 is the new Insurance Standard focusing on insurance liability reporting while IFRS 9 is the Financial Instruments Standard, which impacts the valuation of insurers’ assets for accounting purposes. Large insurers have stepped up their preparations for IFRS 17 and IFRS 9, but smaller insurers have fallen further behind in preparing, according to a new report, ‘In it to win it’ by KPMG International. Sixty-seven percent of large insurers (with premiums over $10bn) surveyed are in the design or implementation phase for IFRS 17, with almost as many, 64%, in a similar place with respect to IFRS 9. (  HIA completes first phase of ‘Smart Airport’ initiative – Hamad International Airport (HIA) has successfully completed the first major phase of its ‘Smart Airport’ program, which will enable home carrier Qatar Airways to process more than 25% of its passengers using self-service check-in and bag-drop facilities. In partnership with SITA and CCM, HIA has successfully commissioned 62 next-generation self-service check-in kiosks and 12 self-service bag drops including future biometric technology capability. (  Deals worth QR333.8mn signed on first two days of the ongoing Milipol Qatar 2018 exhibition – A number of contracts worth QR333.8mn were signed on the first two days of the ongoing Milipol Qatar 2018 exhibition at the Doha Exhibition and Convention Center (DECC), QNA reported. Milipol Qatar’s President, Major General Nasser bin Fahad Al-Thani said that an agreement for intense cooperation was signed between GIE Milipol’s Chairman Yann Jounot and Comexposium Center’s President, Renaud Hamaide. “The agreement for partnership between Milipol Qatar and Milipol Paris is until 2026,” Major General Nasser Al-Thani said. (  Qatar’s population growth stabilizing, says minister – Qatar’s population growth rates are gradually stabilizing, HE the Minister of Development Planning and Statistics, Saleh Mohamed Salem Al-Nabit, Chairman of Permanent Population Committee (PPC) said. Speaking at Qatar Population Day organized by the PPC, the minister said that the improvement of the workforce structure in terms of skills and balance between nationalities and an increase in economic activity will lead to a more balanced demographic composition and a more sustainable growth rate. The minister highlighted that the event comes after a year since the launch of the Qatar Second Population Policy 2017-2022, which saw many achievements in terms of manpower and paying attention to foreign labor. (Gulf- International  US consumer confidence at 18-year high; house price gains slow – US consumer confidence rose to an 18-year high in October, driven largely by a robust labor market, bolstering expectations that strong economic growth would continue through early 2019. However, a weakening housing market and tightening financial market conditions are casting a shadow on the economic expansion that is in its ninth year, the second longest on record. Home price gains slowed further in August, other data showed, another sign that higher mortgage rates were weighing on housing demand. The Conference Board stated its consumer confidence index reading rose to 137.9 this month, the highest since September 2000, from a downwardly revised 135.3 in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecasted the consumer index slipping to 136.0 from the previously reported 138.4 in September. Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved, despite a sharp stock market sell-off and jump in US Treasury yields, which have tightened financial market conditions. The stock market’s S&P 500 index has dropped more than 8% this month. The Conference Board survey puts more emphasis on the labor market. The survey’s so-called labor market differential, derived from data about respondents saying jobs are scarce or plentiful, was the most favorable since
  5. 5. Page 5 of 9 January 2001. This measure closely correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department’s employment report. Economists said it raised the possibility that the unemployment rate could drop further from a near 49-year low of 3.7%. The government will publish its October employment report on November 02. Consumer confidence at multi-year highs bodes well for spending in the upcoming holiday season. More consumers planned to buy automobiles and houses over the next six months, but the share of those intending to purchase major appliances slipped. (Reuters)  CBI: UK’s retail sales growth slows sharply in October – British retail sales growth slowed more than expected this month as consumers retrenched after a summer shopping spree driven by warm weather and the soccer World Cup, an industry survey showed. The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) monthly retail sales gauge fell to +5 in October from September’s +23, its weakest level since April. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a much smaller decline to +20. (Reuters)  Mood sours as Eurozone economic growth slows, while Italy stagnates – The Eurozone economy grew less than expected in the third quarter as the public mood turned darker, with signs of distress in Italy highlighting concerns that the bloc’s third- ranked state is becoming one of its weakest links. Data from October 30, suggesting the slowdown has further to run, will make uncomfortable reading for the European Central Bank (ECB) as it moves toward ending in December the program of asset purchases it introduced in 2015 to boost inflation and economic growth. Economists said the quarterly growth dip to 0.2% from 0.4% in the second quarter was unlikely to change those plans, though it might push back the date of the ECB’s first post-stimulus hike in interest rates. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.4% rise in the 19 countries sharing the Euro. The 0.2% reported was the lowest growth pace in more than four years. Eurostat does not provide national data in its flash estimates, but figures from Italy’s statistics agency ISTAT showed growth there stagnated in the third quarter, as the government pursues a war of words with Brussels over a 2019 budget draft that breaks EU rules. (Reuters)  Germany’s jobless total falls, employment hits record high – Germany’s jobless total fell in October and employment hit a record high in September, data showed on October 30, underlining the strength of a labor market that is supporting a consumer-led upswing in Europe’s largest economy. The Federal Labor Office stated the seasonally adjusted jobless total fell by 11,000 to 2.292mn, slightly below the predicted drop of 12,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%, the lowest since German reunification in 1990. In a politically risky push to fill a record number of job vacancies and stabilize the public pension system, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition parties earlier this month agreed on a new immigration law to attract more skilled workers from countries outside the European Union (EU). In a further positive sign, seasonally adjusted employment as measured by the International Labor Organization climbed by 557,000 on the year to a record of 45.0mn in September, separate Federal Statistics Office data showed. Household spending has become an important growth driver in Germany as record-high employment, increased job security, above-inflation pay hikes and low borrowing costs all help open shoppers’ wallets. (Reuters)  Japan’s October industrial output falls as trade friction weighs – Japan’s industrial output fell more than expected in September as a series of typhoons and earthquakes disrupted production and a trade war between the US and China weighed on exports, clouding the country’s economic outlook. The 1.1% decline in output was more than the median estimate for a 0.3% decline and follows a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Japan exports a large volume of electronic parts and equipment to China, which are used to make goods destined for the US, so Japan’s economic growth could weaken if the US and China remain at loggerheads over trade. Output fell in September due to a 2.5% decline in production of cars and car parts, data from the trade ministry showed. Production of robots and machines used to make flat panel displays also fell 1.4%. Inventories of electronic parts, which are used in smart phones, jumped 9.6% in September, the fastest increase in six months. Economists have expressed concern that high inventories of electronic parts are a sign of weak demand, which could cause manufacturers of such goods to cut future production. Manufacturers surveyed by the trade ministry expect output to rise 6.0% in October, but decline 0.8% in November. (Reuters)  China’s October official services PMI falls to 53.9 – Growth in China’s services industry cooled in October, an official survey showed, in a sign that activity is slowing in a key part of the world’s second largest economy. The official non- manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 53.9 from 54.9 in September, but still well above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. The services sector accounts for more than half of China’s economy, with rising wages giving Chinese consumers more spending power. The composite PMI, which covers both manufacturing and services activity, slipped to 53.1 in October, from September’s 54.1. (Reuters) Regional  ALAWWAL posts 22.6% YoY decrease but 10.8% QoQ rise in net profit to SR281mn in 3Q2018 – Alawwal Bank (ALAWWAL) recorded net profit of SR281mn in 3Q2018, registering decrease of 22.6% YoY. However, on QoQ basis net profit rose 10.8%. Total operating profit fell 5.7% YoY to SR886.2mn in 3Q2017. Total revenue for special commissions/investments fell 2.6% YoY to SR952.6mn in 3Q2017. Total assets stood at SR84.1bn at the end of September 30, 2018 as compared to SR101.5bn at the end of September 30, 2017. Loans and advances stood at SR59.0bn (-14.2% YoY), while customer deposits stood at SR65.3bn (-19.5% YoY) at the end of September 30, 2018. EPS came in at SR0.72 in 9M2018 as compared to SR0.88 in 9M2017. (Tadawul)  Inflation to ease in Saudi Arabia in 2019 as VAT impact wears off – Inflation in Saudi Arabia will ease next year, as the effects of fuel subsidy cuts and VAT implementation wears off. Inflation in the Kingdom is forecasted to average 2.6% in 2018, falling to 2.2% in 2019, up from deflation of 0.9% recorded in 2017, Fitch Solutions, a unit of Fitch Ratings, stated in a report. “In 2019, we expect a more pronounced deceleration in price growth as the base effects of subsidy cuts and VAT fall off. This view is also underpinned by our expectation for the Saudi
  6. 6. Page 6 of 9 government to shift away from fiscal consolidation next year, which means that any further subsidy cuts or tax hikes are unlikely to prove substantial or to have a major impact on inflation,” Fitch stated. Saudi Arabia, along with its GCC peers, had to tighten purse strings in the wake of a three-year oil price slum that saw the crude benchmark fall from its mid-2014 peak of $115 per barrel to less than $30 per barrel in the first quarter of 2016. Subsidy reforms and VAT at 5% will continue to put upward pressure on prices in the near-term, particularly in the transport and food and beverages segments. Both sectors have seen price increases at an average of 10.4% and 6.2% YoY, respectively, in the first nine months of this year, Fitch stated. (  Ma’aden looking for overseas investments, plans to shift funding to Sukuk, bonds – Saudi Arabian Mining Co (Ma’aden) is actively looking for investment opportunities overseas that would complement and strengthen its business inside the Kingdom, the company’s CEO said. Ma’aden, which mines gold and copper and has in recent years expanded into the production of aluminum and phosphates, is a key to Saudi Arabia’s plan to diversify its economy away from hydrocarbons. The government aims to more than triple mining’s contribution to the nation’s economic output by 2030. The company, which is 65% owned by the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund, is looking for joint ventures and acquisitions in Latin America, India and other countries to boost its operations in phosphate fertilizers and base metals. Maaden also plans to shift its financing strategy over the medium term away from bank loans, which have been its main source of financing, to the bond market, including Sukuk issues. (Reuters)  Saudi Arabia’s recovery gains pace with higher consumer spending – Latest macroeconomic indicators from Saudi Arabia point to a sustained recovery in the economy supported by improving consumer spending, corporate and banking sector earnings and gains in government revenues, according to analysts. A recent analysis from Arqaam Capital showed that the Kingdom witnessed strong consumer spending numbers (up 9% YoY) in the third quarter of this year, more than expected after a weak first half of 2018. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted a real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2018, with non-oil growth strengthening to 2.3%. The pickup in GDP growth follows a negative growth of 0.9% in 2017. GDP growth is expected to pick up further over the medium-term as the reforms take hold and oil output increases. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 4.6% of GDP in 2018 from an estimated 9.3% last year. Higher exported oil, domestic energy, and non- oil revenues more than offset additional capital spending, compensatory payments to households through the citizens’ accounts, and the cost of the January Royal Decree, which introduced monthly allowances for public sector workers, retirees, students, and those on social benefits through end- 2018 (1.8% of GDP). Latest data showed aggregate consumer spending as indicated by point of sales (POS) and ATM withdrawals registered a 16% YoY growth in September and 9% in the third quarter of 2018 compared to 5% in the second quarter over the first quarter. (  Alkhabeer to list property trust on market – Saudi Arabia’s Alkhabeer Capital (Alkhabeer) plans to list a property trust on the stock exchange, the company stated. The Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority earlier this month approved Alkhabeer’s request to list the real estate investment trust (REIT) units. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock exchange has witnessed a flurry of REIT activity this year, with eight listings in the first half of 2018, according to a PWC report. The exchange began listing REITs in 2016, in a move that allows investors to access the local real estate market through the purchase of existing and developed property. The trusts are securities which trade on stock markets but invest directly in properties and distribute profits as dividends. The value of the assets exceeds $266.60mn and the initial public offering size is valued at $63.18mn it stated. The fund invests in seven income- producing real estate assets in Riyadh, Jeddah and Tabuk. (Reuters)  Saudi Arabia to waive $6bn debts of poorer countries – Saudi Arabia plans to waive more than $6bn of debt owed to the Kingdom by poorer countries, a cabinet statement stated. It did not name the countries, but said it was part of a larger UN development initiative. (Reuters)  Publicis Groupe keeping Saudi Arabian business for now – Communications giant, Publicis Groupe will continue to work for Saudi Arabia while “monitoring the situation”, Chairman Maurice Levy said, despite Riyadh’s acknowledgement that dissident Jamal Khashoggi was the victim of a premeditated murder at its Istanbul consulate. The French group’s Qorvis Communications business has a long-standing contract to handle public relations and government affairs for Saudi Arabia. (Reuters)  Saudi Aramco, Total Satorp JV refinery plans work in 2020 – Satorp in Jubail, Saudi Arabia, plans maintenance at units including crude processor, hydrotreater, and coker, according to David Marion, the venture’s VP for manufacturing. The refinery had completed work on train 1 units in January-February; the plant has duplicate units in each of its two trains so it can continue processing at 50% capacity when conducting maintenance, according to Marion. The facility has a capacity of 450,000 bpd; Satorp will expand its capacity during the next maintenance period to 460,000-480,000 bpd. The JV between both Saudi Aramco and Total is still choosing the date for maintenance and Satorp will likely conduct the work in late- 2020. The new IMO ship-fuel regulations to take effect in January 2020 will boost refining margins in late-2019 and 2020 by raising demand for fuels lower in sulfur; Satorp may also plan to work later in 2020 to avoid missing the period of good margins. (Bloomberg)  Lockheed Martin sees fewer than 1000 new US jobs from Saudi Arabian Deal – Lockheed Martin has forecasted fewer than 1,000 positions being created by it in the US from the Saudi Arabian arms deal, Reuters reports stated. Lockheed Martin predicts the deal creating nearly 10,000 new jobs in Saudi Arabia, while keeping as much as 18,000 existing US workers busy. (Bloomberg)  UAE’s central bank issues new conditions for retail loan bank transfers – The UAE’s central bank stated that it had amended conditions for the transfer of retail loans from one bank to
  7. 7. Page 7 of 9 another. The banking watchdog stated it had decided to amend the regulation of loans from banks and other services offered to individuals. Banks and finance companies are obliged to reduce the profit over interest ratio and not to increase the repayment period, it stated. (Reuters)  UAE, US discuss financial and banking relations – Chairman of UAE Banks Federation, AbdulAziz Al Ghurair, received a high- level delegation led by US Secretary of the Treasury, Steven T. Mnuchin at a meeting held in Abu Dhabi. Both parties discussed key banking and financial issues of US and UAE bilateral interest, and explored possible ways of collaboration to address them. Al-Ghurair said, “We are pleased to host the Secretary of the Treasury, Steven T. Mnuchin, and the high-level delegation, underlining the willingness and commitment to further the development of bilateral cooperation and enhancement of collaboration as the meeting offers a platform to discuss financial and banking issues of mutual interest. Over the years, there has been extensive collaboration between the US and the UAE to jointly fight the money laundering and terrorist financing menace. By working closely with the US and other international partners, the UAE is demonstrating its commitment to confront, degrade and eradicate terrorism and extremism across the Middle East and worldwide.” He added, “The UAE is a member of MENA-FATF and UAE banks work closely with our regulator, the UAE Central Bank, towards ensuring adherence to FATF Recommendations on combating money laundering and financing of terrorism. Banks in the UAE seek to ensure that they operate in compliance with US and international AML and sanctions requirements and would welcome any additional platforms or means of cooperation with US Treasury to support these objectives, in coordination with our own regulatory authorities.” (  Fewa, Honeywell enter advanced energy management deal – The UAE’s Federal Electricity & Water Authority (Fewa) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Honeywell, a global leader in Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) technologies for buildings, to drive sustainable development and green economy initiatives in the UAE’s Northern Emirates. The collaboration details Fewa’s focus on driving significant energy savings of between 10% and 30% across a range of public sector buildings through the adoption of advanced energy efficiency technologies and to improve the standards of living and achieve sustainable growth by 2021, as stated. Under the terms of the agreement which was signed at Wetex 2018, the organizations will determine a proof of value, focusing particularly on Honeywell’s next generation solutions that enable significant energy savings and adhere to sustainable environmental guidelines. These technologies include building management systems, energy management dashboards and energy performance contracting (EPC). The partnership will support the goals of the UAE Energy Strategy 2050, which is considered the first unified energy strategy in the country based on supply and demand. The strategy aims to increase the contribution of clean energy in the total energy mix from 25% to 50% by 2050 and reduce carbon footprint of power generation by 70%, thus saving AED700bn by 2050. It also seeks to increase consumption efficiency of individuals and corporates by 40%. (  UAE’s FTA budget proposal approved – The UAE’s Federal Tax Authority (FTA)’s held its sixth meeting, chaired by Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Deputy Ruler of Dubai and UAE Minister of Finance. During the meeting, the Board of Directors adopted the FTA’s proposed budget for 2019, in addition to a number of executive decisions regarding the authority’s internal regulations, policies and operations. (  EMIRATES NBD's net profit rises to AED2,638.2mn in 3Q2018 – Emirates NBD Bank (EMIRATES NBD) recorded net profit of AED2,638.2mn in 3Q2018 as compared to AED2,275.6mn in 3Q2017. Net interest income came in at AED2,819.9mn as compared to AED2,359.1mn in 3Q2017. Total operating income came in at AED4,454.2mn as compared to AED3,965.4mn in 3Q2017. Total assets stood at AED492.6bn at the end of September 30, 2018 as compared to AED470.4bn at the end of December 31, 2017. Loans and receivables stood at AED275.3bn, while customers’ deposits stood at AED284.3bn at the end of September 30, 2018. EPS came in at AED0.45 in 3Q2018 as compared to AED0.38 in 3Q2017. (DFM)  EIB's net profit rises to AED171.6mn in 3Q2018 – Emirates Islamic Bank (EIB) recorded net profit of AED171.6mn in 3Q2018 as compared to AED111.7mn in 3Q2017. Net income from financing and investment products came in at AED400.9mn as compared to AED390.9mn in 3Q2017. Total operating income came in at AED622.6mn as compared to AED612.4mn in 3Q2017. Total assets stood at AED59.8bn at the end of September 30, 2018 as compared to AED61.9bn at the end of December 31, 2017. Financing receivables stood at AED36.3bn, while customers’ accounts stood at AED42.4bn at the end of September 30, 2018. EPS came in at AED0.032 in 3Q2018 as compared to AED0.021 in 3Q2017. (DFM)  Dubai-South Korea trade surges to $2.3bn in 1H2018 – Dubai’s trade with South Korea grew 8% from $6.8bn in 2016 to $7.4bn in 2017, standing at $2.37bn during 1H2018, a media report stated. The figures have been revealed during a meeting between Ahmed Mahboob Musabih, director of Dubai Customs, and a South Korean delegation led by the Consul-General in Dubai, Chun Young Wook, in the presence of representatives of a number of South Korean businesses operating in the country, Emirates news agency Wam reported. The meeting occasioned a review of the incentives provided by the Federal Government to stimulate the business sector and domestic economy in general that will ultimately reflect positively on the businesses in the country. Musabih underlined his determination to keep South Korean investors updated on the latest business services provided by Dubai Customs. For his part, the Korean Consul- General reaffirmed confidence in the investment-conducive environment of Dubai, is calling on Korean businesses to invest in the country. (  Dubai Islamic Bank looking at organic, inorganic expansion – Dubai Islamic Bank is always on the lookout for acquisitions, CEO Adnan Chilwan told Bloomberg TV. He added, “There’s always an opportunity for a mega deal in conventional or Islamic banking. It just needs to make commercial sense.” He mentioned that Dubai Islamic Bank has a robust asset quality. (Bloomberg)
  8. 8. Page 8 of 9  CBI's net profit rises to AED61.2mn in 3Q2018 – Commercial Bank International (CBI) recorded net profit of AED61.2mn in 3Q2018 as compared to AED35.1mn in 3Q2017. Total interest income and income from Islamic financing & investing assets came in at AED224.7mn as compared to AED222.8mn in 3Q2017. Net operating income came in at AED224.7mn as compared to AED214.9mn in 3Q2017. Total assets stood at AED19.4bn at the end of September 30, 2018 as compared to AED20.7bn at the end of December 31, 2017. Loans and advances to customers stood at AED12.3bn, while customers’ deposits stood at AED12.7bn at the end of September 30, 2018. EPS from continuing operations came in at AED0.011 in 3Q2018 as compared to AED0.019 in 3Q2017. (ADX)  UNB's net profit rises to AED434.2mn in 3Q2018 – Union National Bank (UNB) recorded net profit of AED434.2mn in 3Q2018 as compared to AED406mn in 3Q2017. Net interest income came in at AED659.6mn as compared to AED620.8mn in 3Q2017. Operating income came in at AED876.4mn as compared to AED932.4mn in 3Q2017. Total assets stood at AED104.9bn at the end of September 30, 2018 as compared to AED107.5bn at the end of December 31, 2017. Loans and advances measured at amortized cost stood at AED69.2bn, while customers’ deposits stood at AED73.0bn at the end of September 30, 2018. EPS came in at AED0.14 in 3Q2018 as compared to AED0.13 in 3Q2017. (ADX)  Citigroup granted license to set up Citibank’s branch in Abu Dhabi – Citigroup has been granted a license to set up a branch of Citibank at Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGAM), a financial center in Abu Dhabi. The new branch will provide liquidity management to Citibank’s clients looking to establish regional treasury centers in the UAE, as well as offering institutional banking services to its global clients, it stated. (Reuters)  Tabreed gets $408mn in loan facilities to refinance debt – Tabreed, whose biggest shareholder is French utility Engie SA, obtained $408mn in banking facilities to help refinance debt. The facilities will add to a $500mn Sukuk, which the district cooling provider raised this month to refinance $762mn, it stated. It will help improve balance sheet efficiency and a longer debt maturity, providing fresh impetus for the company’s expansion into both existing and new markets, it stated. (Bloomberg)  Kuwait's Emir says economic reforms needed despite higher oil prices – Kuwait needs to push through economic reforms despite higher oil prices, the Gulf state’s ruler said, urging parliament to work with the government to implement measures aimed at diversifying revenues and developing the economy. Kuwait, whose state finances are among the strongest in the region, has been trying to introduce new taxes and reform a lavish welfare system to curb state spending. “I hope that the recent temporary improvement in oil prices does not obstruct this important path, which aims to protect future generations,” Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber al-Sabah told parliament in a speech at the start of its new session. Critics say parliament has long hindered attempts at fiscal discipline. (Reuters)  Oman sells $1.5bn Sukuk with generous investor returns – Oman sold $1.5bn in Sukuk last week but the generous investor returns it had to offer showed that the crisis over the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is raising funding costs across the Gulf region, fund managers said. The bond issue is Oman’s second public debt issuance this year, as the Sultanate borrows internationally to finance a budget deficit caused by a slump in oil prices over the past few years. It follows a $6.5bn conventional bond issue in January, the country’s largest ever debt sale. The bonds offer almost 50 basis points more than Oman’s existing $2bn Sukuk issued last year and due in June 2024. Even accounting for a premium of around 20 basis points over the 2024 notes for the one and a half year maturity extension, the new Sukuk offer investors an extra 30 basis points which fund managers partly ascribed to the Khashoggi fallout. (  Oman sells OMR76.5mn 28 day bills – Oman sold OMR76.5mn of bills due November 28 on October 29. Investors offered to buy 1.09 times the amount of securities sold. The bills were sold at a price of 99.83, having a yield of 2.217% and will settle on October 31. (Bloomberg)  Bahrain’s central bank approves port operator IPO – Bahrain’s central bank has approved an initial public offering (IPO) by APM Terminals Bahrain, a port operator, it stated. The company plans to list shares equivalent to 20% of its issued share capital. APM Terminals stated this month it had appointed Bahrain’s SICO, an asset manager and investment bank, to arrange the IPO. The company will offer 18mn shares, equivalent to 20% of its issued share capital, at BHD0.66 per share, it said in the IPO prospectus published. APM Terminals Bahrain, which has operated in the country for 12 years, is part of the Netherlands-based group APM Terminals, which is itself part of the Maersk Group. The offering will start on November 8 and will remain open until November 24. The company’s shares will start trading on December 9, according to the prospectus. (Reuters)
  9. 9. Contacts Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 9 of 9 Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg (*$ adjusted returns) 45.0 70.0 95.0 120.0 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 QSE Index S&P Pan Arab S&P GCC (0.2%) (0.3%) 0.0% (0.2%) (0.2%) (0.3%) 1.1% (0.5%) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% SaudiArabia Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman AbuDhabi Dubai Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D%* WTD%* YTD%* Gold/Ounce 1,222.87 (0.5) (0.8) (6.2) MSCI World Index 1,997.19 1.1 0.8 (5.1) Silver/Ounce 14.47 0.1 (1.5) (14.6) DJ Industrial 24,874.64 1.8 0.8 0.6 Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) 75.91 (1.8) (2.2) 13.5 S&P 500 2,682.63 1.6 0.9 0.3 Crude Oil (WTI)/Barrel (FM Future) 66.18 (1.3) (2.1) 9.5 NASDAQ 100 7,161.65 1.6 (0.1) 3.7 Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 3.27 1.6 0.0 5.8 STOXX 600 355.53 (0.3) 0.5 (13.8) LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 85.63 (1.3) 0.0 (13.5) DAX 11,287.39 (0.8) 0.4 (17.5) LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 91.00 (0.3) 1.1 (16.1) FTSE 100 7,035.85 (0.6) 0.4 (14.0) Euro 1.13 (0.2) (0.5) (5.5) CAC 40 4,978.53 (0.6) (0.2) (11.5) Yen 113.13 0.7 1.1 0.4 Nikkei 21,457.29 1.1 0.5 (6.0) GBP 1.27 (0.7) (1.0) (6.0) MSCI EM 936.30 0.2 (0.3) (19.2) CHF 0.99 (0.3) (0.8) (3.0) SHANGHAI SE Composite 2,568.05 0.9 (1.5) (27.5) AUD 0.71 0.7 0.2 (9.0) HANG SENG 24,585.53 (0.9) (0.6) (18.2) USD Index 97.01 0.4 0.7 5.3 BSE SENSEX 33,891.13 (0.7) 0.9 (13.7) RUB 65.55 (0.4) (0.3) 13.7 Bovespa 86,885.71 2.8 0.1 1.1 BRL 0.27 0.6 (1.5) (10.4) RTS 1,105.33 (0.7) 0.6 (4.3) 75.6 74.2 73.2