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24 July Daily technical trader


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24 July Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index shed around 69 points (-0.52%) to end the session below the 13,200.0 psychological level. The index witnessed a gap- up opening and momentarily moved above 13,300.0, but failed to hold onto its gains and reversed as the traders opted to book profits. The index needs to clear and sustain above 13,200.0 on a closing basis to set up a rally toward the 13,300.0-13,350.0 levels. On the flip side, any failure to clear 13,200.0 may result in a pullback. Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Pullback QIGD caved under selling pressure and breached both the supports of the 21-day moving average and QR54.0 in a single swoop yesterday. The stock has been moving along the descending trendline over the past few weeks and is underperforming. Moreover, the RSI is in a downtrend mode and is showing no signs of trend reversal. Thus, traders could consider selling the stock at the current level for a target of QR52.40 with a stop loss of QR53.50. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term –Neutral The QERI Index fell around 6 points (-0.14%) to end the day slightly in the red due to profit-booking. The index made a positive start and reached an intraday high of 4,486.29, however took a U-turn and drifted lower as the bears took charge. Meanwhile, the index managed to close above its key support of 4,445.0. We believe if the index stays above this level on a closing basis, it could move higher toward 4,500.0, or else it may further decline to test 4,400.0. Medicare Group: Short-Term – Uptrend MCGS moved above the interim resistance of QR101.30 and gained around 2.48% after moving sideways over the past few days. We believe the stock is trending strong and may continue its positive momentum until it stays above QR101.30. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are providing bullish signals, indicating the stock has enough steam to accelerate further. However, any retreat below QR101.30 may result in consolidation. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Pullback DHBK drifted lower and penetrated below the important supports of QR58.10 and QR57.40, along with the 21-day moving average. The stock has been in a declining mode and has been registering losses since it failed to move above the 55-day moving average. Meanwhile, both the indicators are pointing down, indicating a likely downmove. We believe the stock may continue its pullback and test QR56.50. However, a close above QR57.40 may provide some relief. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove VFQS witnessed a gap-up opening and made further headway yesterday. Notably, volumes were also large on the rise, which is a positive sign. We believe the stock may continue its advance and test QR20.0. Traders must keep a close watch on this level, as any move above this level may spark additional buying interest, pushing the stock higher. Meanwhile, the RSI in the buy zone supports this bullish sentiment. However, a dip below QR19.50 may drag the stock.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,189.56 UP UP 13,079.52 13,000.00 13,195.88 13,350.54 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,446.49 UP UP 4,444.85 4,400.00 4,500.00 4,528.58 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 56.20 UP UP 55.80 54.00 57.30 59.90 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 69.40 UP UP 68.30 67.40 70.00 70.70 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 57.10 DOWN DOWN 56.50 55.80 57.40 58.10 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 105.00 UP UP 104.50 102.00 107.00 109.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.20 UP UP 85.00 83.50 88.00 88.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 89.50 UP UP 88.90 87.30 91.00 92.40 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.47 UP FLAT 22.35 21.87 22.60 23.00 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD)* 103.50 UP UP 101.30 100.00 105.90 107.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 181.00 UP UP 179.00 175.00 181.60 183.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 177.10 UP DOWN 175.50 173.00 178.30 180.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 183.00 FLAT DOWN 182.00 180.00 184.00 187.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 115.30 UP UP 115.00 111.90 119.50 122.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 53.10 DOWN DOWN 52.40 51.00 54.00 55.20 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 44.90 UP UP 43.80 43.20 45.00 45.80 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.90 UP UP 27.20 26.45 28.50 29.35 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 130.50 FLAT DOWN 129.70 128.00 132.00 134.20 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 19.70 UP UP 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.78 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 23.65 FLAT FLAT 23.60 23.00 24.12 24.45 Milaha (QNNS QD) 92.90 DOWN DOWN 92.00 91.30 93.90 95.10