22 April Daily technical trader


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22 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QE Index continued its relentless rally for the fifth consecutive session gaining around 190 points (1.51%) to close at its record high of 12,768.17. The index witnessed a gap-up opening and for the first time breached the 12,600.0 & 12,700.0 levels in a single swoop on the back of large volumes indicating strong buying interest. We believe the index is in bull-run mode and may continue to extend its rally tagging new highs. Meanwhile, both indicators look strong. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Uptrend MARK gained 5.15% and extended its rally tagging fresh new highs. The stock has been accelerating on the upside over the past few days and is registering strong gains. The spike in volumes indicates that the stock may continue its rally and advance further making new highs. Moreover, the bullishness in the RSI is intact while the MACD is growing more bullish indicating that this rally may continue for a longer duration and may not fizzle out soon. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QERI Index extended its jubilation and surged 2.71% hitting a fresh all-time high. The index has been consistently tagging new highs and is registering strong gains over the past few days as the bulls continue to have an upper hand over the bears. This clearly displays the bull market characteristics. Meanwhile, with both the indicators in uptrend mode and showing no immediate trend reversal signs, the index is poised to tag new highs. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Breakout UDCD cleared the resistances of QR23.33 and QR24.00 in a single swoop, tagging a new 52-week high. The recent price action and pick up in volumes suggest that the stock has enough steam to accelerate further and test QR25.29. Any move above this level may spark additional buying interest, which may push the stock to test QR26.20. However, a dip below QR24.00 may result in consolidation. Meanwhile, both indicators support a further higher move. Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Uptrend QIGD surged 9.97% and cleared its resistance of QR64.70 after consolidating below it over the past few days, tagging an all-time high. Notably, volumes were also large on the breakout indicating rising buying interest. Moreover, the stock developed a large bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating a likely continuation of this uptrend. Meanwhile, both indicators are pointing higher indicating that the stock has enough strength to rally further. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Uptrend VFQS surged 9.96% and moved above the QR16.90 level, tagging a new all-time high on the back of large volumes. The stock has been in uptrend mode and is witnessing extraordinary rally over the past few days. We believe the stock is trending strong and may continue to extend this rally making new highs. Moreover, with the RSI holding strongly in the overbought zone and the MACD diverging away in a bullish manner, VFQS’ preferred direction seems to be on the upside.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,768.17 UP UP 12,678.84 12,600.00 12,900.00 13,000.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,243.26 UP UP 4,200.00 4,148.08 4,300.00 4,350.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 51.00 UP UP 50.00 48.50 52.50 54.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 69.90 UP UP 68.40 65.75 70.00 71.50 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 63.10 UP UP 61.50 60.00 63.30 64.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 85.10 UP UP 82.40 80.20 85.50 86.25 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 83.90 UP UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 87.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 77.00 UP UP 76.00 74.80 78.50 80.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.50 UP UP 22.90 21.49 23.50 24.40 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 81.50 UP UP 79.00 77.30 81.70 83.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 182.10 UP UP 180.00 175.00 183.00 185.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 179.90 DOWN DOWN 178.30 175.00 181.40 183.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 182.50 UP UP 180.00 178.20 184.00 188.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 91.90 UP UP 90.00 86.60 93.00 94.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 68.40 UP UP 64.70 61.30 70.00 72.50 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.00 UP UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 24.50 UP UP 24.00 23.33 25.29 26.20 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.50 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 17.99 UP UP 16.90 16.00 19.00 20.50 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.38 UP UP 22.19 21.83 22.45 22.80 Milaha (QNNS QD) 97.00 UP UP 96.50 95.10 98.30 100.10