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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index snapped its four-day winning streak and shed around
129 points (-0.97%) on the back of profit-booking. The index
witnessed a gap-up opening and went very close to test 13,400.0, but
took a U-turn and retraced below 13,200.0. On the downside, the
index has an immediate support near 13,080.0. We believe the
current upmove remains intact until it stays above 13,080.0.
However, any dip below this level may result in a pullback.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Pullback
IQCD breached both the supports of QR180.0 and QR178.30 after
moving sideways over the past few days, which is a negative sign.
The stock has been facing stiff resistance at the ascending trendline
and is moving along it over the past few days. Moreover, the stock
developed a bearish Marubozu candlestick pattern, indicating it may
move further down to test QR175.50. However, a close above
QR178.30 may halt its downmove.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index halted its fourth consecutive day of profits and ended
the session in red with a cut of -1.08%, as traders opted to book
profits. The index made a strong start to the day and momentarily
moved above 4,500.0, but it was unable to hold onto its gains and
declined below the important support near 4,445.0. Meanwhile, the
index needs to reclaim 4,445.0 in order to proceed toward 4,500.0.
Any failure to move above 4,445.0 may test the 4,400.0 level.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pullback
QIBK developed a Doji candlestick pattern on Thursday and declined
further yesterday, confirming the reversal in its trend, which was
bullish until now. Moreover, the stock penetrated below both the
supports of QR107.0 and QR104.50 in a single swoop, indicating
weakness. With the RSI sliding down, we believe the stock may drift
further and test QR102.0, followed by QR100.0. However, if the stock
manages to move above QR104.50, it may attract buyers.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Uptrend
UDCD moved above QR26.45 and surged 5.29%, tagging a new 52-
week high. Notably, volumes were also high on the upmove,
indicating rising optimism among traders. With both the indicators
being bullish, the preferred direction of UDCD seems to be on the
upside. We believe the stock may continue its bullish momentum and
may record new highs. However, traders may need to keep a close
watch on QR27.20 for any reversal signs.
Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Pullback
KCBK failed to make any further headway above the 55-day moving
average and declined to dip below the support of QR22.35. Moreover,
the stock developed a bearish candlestick pattern on daily charts,
indicating a continuation of this pullback. We believe the stock may
decline further to test QR21.87. However, a close above QR22.35
may provide some relief. Meanwhile, both the indicators are pointing
lower, indicating the stock may likely move down.
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
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DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,155.58 UP UP 13,079.52 13,000.00 13,195.88 13,350.54
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,426.01 UP UP 4,400.00 4,350.00 4,444.85 4,528.58
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 54.80 UP UP 54.00 52.60 55.80 57.30
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.00 UP UP 69.50 68.30 70.70 71.80
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 59.30 UP DOWN 59.30 58.10 60.00 61.30
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 104.00 UP UP 102.00 100.00 104.50 107.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 86.90 UP UP 86.10 85.00 88.00 88.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 88.50 UP UP 87.30 86.50 90.00 91.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 22.10 UP DOWN 21.87 21.60 22.35 22.60
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 98.40 UP UP 96.50 95.00 99.00 100.00
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 182.50 UP UP 181.60 180.00 183.00 185.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 177.50 UP DOWN 175.50 173.00 178.30 180.00
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 185.80 UP DOWN 184.00 182.00 187.00 188.90
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 115.00 UP UP 111.90 109.00 116.00 119.50
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.20 DOWN DOWN 54.40 52.40 56.10 57.00
Real Estate Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 44.25 UP UP 43.80 43.20 45.00 45.75
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 27.85 UP UP 27.20 26.45 28.50 29.35
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 134.50 UP DOWN 133.90 132.00 136.00 138.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.70 UP UP 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.78
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 23.65 FLAT UP 23.60 23.00 24.12 24.45
Milaha (QNNS QD) 98.50 UP UP 98.30 96.50 99.00 100.10