7 August Daily technical trader


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7 August Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index shed around 70 points (-0.53%) to settle near the 13,100.0 level. The index failed to make further headway above 13,200.0 and retreated, as traders opted to book profits. Meanwhile, the index has its immediate support near 13,080.0. We believe as long as the index stays above this level, the upmove remains intact, and it has a possibility of proceeding ahead. However, any decline below 13,080.0 may result in a pullback. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Rebound CBQK bounced back yesterday after witnessing selling pressure over the past few days. Moreover, the stock cleared the resistances of QR67.30 and the descending trendline, which had restricted its bullish move earlier. Further, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence and is moving up toward the mid-line. We believe a follow-through above the 21-day moving average would signal a further advance. However, any dip below QR67.30 may pull the stock down. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index snapped its three-day winning streak and fell around 8 points on the back of profit booking. The index momentarily moved above the 4,500.0 level, but failed to hold onto its gains and reversed. However, the bulls need not worry until the index trades above the 4,445.0 level. A decline below this level may drag the index down. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are providing mixed signals, thus supporting our neutral outlook. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back IQCD has been trading along the ascending trendline over the past few days, finally breaching the resistance of QR173.90. We believe, based on the current higher push and increased participation, the stock may be ready for an upmove to test its next resistance of QR175.50. The RSI has shown a bullish divergence, while the MACD is showing signs of recovery, indicating a likely higher move. However, any retreat below QR173.90 may drag the stock. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term –Upmove MARK cleared QR54.0 on Tuesday and continued to build onto its gains, which is a positive sign. Moreover, the stock did not weaken even after market turbulence, indicating strength. We believe the stock has now set the stage for a higher move toward QR55.80. However, any dip below QR54.0 may drag the stock to test its moving averages. Meanwhile, the RSI in the buy zone, is suggesting that the stock may have a possibility of a further rise. Milaha: Short-Term – Rebound QNNS breached the resistance of the ascending triangle at QR92.0 after consolidating below it over the past few days. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish candlestick on daily charts, indicating a likely higher move. Thus, traders could consider buying the stock at the current level for a target of QR93.0 (which is also in proximity to the 55-day moving average) with a strict stop loss of QR92.0. Meanwhile, the RSI and the MACD lines are moving up.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,103.45 UP UP 13,079.52 12,939.80 13,195.88 13,350.54 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,489.26 UP UP 4,444.86 4,375.30 4,528.58 4,638.81 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 54.30 UP UP 54.00 52.50 55.80 57.30 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 67.50 UP FLAT 67.30 66.50 68.30 69.50 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 57.00 DOWN DOWN 56.50 55.50 57.40 58.90 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 111.50 UP UP 109.50 107.00 111.90 115.10 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.00 UP UP 85.00 83.00 86.10 87.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 91.30 UP UP 91.00 88.90 92.40 94.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.30 FLAT FLAT 21.99 21.80 22.35 22.60 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 122.90 UP UP 121.50 118.20 124.00 128.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 188.00 UP UP 187.80 185.00 190.00 194.80 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 174.00 DOWN DOWN 173.90 172.30 175.50 178.30 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 183.00 DOWN DOWN 182.00 180.00 184.00 186.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 118.00 UP UP 115.00 111.90 118.10 119.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 54.00 UP DOWN 52.40 51.00 54.20 56.20 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 39.05 DOWN DOWN 38.40 37.50 39.20 39.70 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 29.90 UP UP 29.90 29.30 30.61 31.93 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 128.90 DOWN DOWN 126.00 123.70 129.70 131.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.62 UP UP 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.78 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 24.80 UP UP 24.45 24.12 25.30 25.90 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 92.60 DOWN DOWN 92.00 91.30 93.00 94.50