23 February Daily technical trader


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23 February Daily technical trader

  1. 1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index continued its strong rally and moved higher around 50 points (0.42%) closing at its highest level in the last five years. The index momentarily moved above the 11,900.0 level, but later retreated due to profit-booking and closed at 11,872.40. The index has been relentlessly tagging new 52-week highs and is in uptrend mode. We believe the index may continue its bullish run and advance toward the 11,900.0-11,915.0 levels until it trades above 11,832.0. The QERI Index continued its uptrend and eventually surpassed the 3,382.68 level, tagging an all-time high. We believe the index may continue its upward momentum and tag new highs until it trades above 3,382.68. However, any dip below 3,382.68 may result in consolidation and halt its further upmove. Meanwhile, the bullishness in the RSI is intact in the overbought territory, while the MACD is widening away from the signal line in a bullish manner. VFQS managed to move above the QR12.40 level on the back of large volumes. The stock has been in consolidation mode since topping the rally near QR12.66 over the past few days. We believe if the stock manages to hold onto QR12.40 a continued rise toward QR12.66 seems possible. However, any dip below the QR12.40 level may drag the stock to test the QR12.15 level. Thus, short-term traders may accumulate at the current level for a target of QR12.66. Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Upmove Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Downmove Doha Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QEWS moved higher around 0.94% on the back of relatively higher volumes. However, the stock faces its next hurdle at QR194.30, which it needs to surpass in order to gain further momentum. We believe if the stock manages to move above this level, it may spark additional buying interest which may push it toward QR196.0. Meanwhile, both the RSI and the MACD lines are providing bullish signals, thus supporting our bullish outlook for the stock. MERS penetrated below the support of QR154.90 after holding on to this level on Wednesday, which is a negative sign. We believe the stock may move lower and test QR153.70. Any weakness below this level may pull the stock further down and test QR151.0. Meanwhile, the RSI is declining from the overbought territory, while the MACD is stalling from the rising mode indicating a likely correction. However, if the stock manages to regain QR154.90 it may attract buyers. DHBK continued its upmove and tagged another new 52-week high moving above the QR67.0 and QR67.50 levels. The stock is in upmove mode and is showing no imminent trend reversal signs. Moreover, the RSI is showing strength in the overbought territory, while the MACD is pointing higher indicating continuation of this upmove. We believe the stock may continue to advance and tag new 52-week high until it trades above the QR67.50 level. Page 1 of 2
  2. 2. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Short Term Support Long Term First Resistance Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,872.40 UP UP 11,832.00 11,754.45 11,915.72 12,000.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,385.85 UP UP 3,382.68 3,350.00 3,400.00 3,430.00 Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 39.05 UP UP 38.00 36.55 40.00 41.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 75.00 UP UP 74.00 73.50 75.00 75.40 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 67.80 UP UP 67.00 66.50 68.50 69.30 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 81.40 UP UP 80.20 79.40 82.20 83.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 74.20 UP UP 73.30 72.80 74.50 75.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 66.50 UP UP 65.50 64.00 66.80 67.50 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 29.20 DOWN DOWN 28.50 28.00 29.95 30.10 Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 51.00 UP DOWN 49.30 48.10 51.00 51.90 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)* 154.50 UP UP 153.70 151.00 154.90 159.00 Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 194.00 UP UP 192.40 190.00 195.00 197.70 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 193.90 UP UP 192.00 190.00 194.30 196.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 81.70 UP UP 81.00 79.90 82.50 84.60 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 41.55 DOWN DOWN 41.00 39.50 43.45 44.50 Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 32.60 UP UP 32.00 31.60 32.85 33.50 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.75 DOWN DOWN 22.38 22.00 22.84 23.10 Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 152.60 UP UP 149.00 145.90 153.00 155.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 12.46 UP UP 12.15 12.09 12.80 13.00 Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.11 UP UP 22.00 21.83 22.50 22.80 Milaha (QNNS QD) 99.80 UP UP 99.00 98.00 101.27 103.48 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Industrials Real Estate Telecom Transportat *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Sales Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2