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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QE Index closed in the red for the fifth session in a row and
dipped around 54 points (-0.42%). The index momentarily moved
above 12,850.0, but could not hold onto its gains and declined later
penetrating below its immediate support of 12,768.17. However, the
index managed to trim its losses recovering from its intraday low of
12,669.12 to end the volatile day at 12,734.15. We believe the index
may continue to drift lower until it trades below the 12,768.17 level.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove
IQCD moved below its support of QR180.0 yesterday. Moreover, the
stock has been experiencing selling pressure over the past few days
and is in declining mode. We believe the stock may continue to drift
lower and test its next support of QR178.30. Any sustained weakness
below this level may pull the stock further down to test QR175.0.
Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are providing bearish
signals indicating a further downside.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QERI Index extended its losses and moved lower around 12
points. However, the index managed to recoup majority of its losses,
recovering from its intraday low of 4,196.19 to close the session at
4,231.0. Meanwhile, the bears may continue to dominate the bulls
until it trades below 4,247.34 and drag the index lower toward
4,200.0. The index needs to move above 4,247.34 & the 21-day
moving average and sustain above it in order to proceed ahead.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
QEWS continued to drift lower yesterday and penetrated below the
support of the QR182.0 level. Notably, volumes were also large on
the decline which is a negative sign. We believe although the stock is
sitting exactly at its support of QR180.0, it may not cling onto it and
continue to move lower to test the 55-day moving average, followed
by QR178.18. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving further down from the
mid-line, while the MACD is growing more bearish.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Downmove
QGTS after breaching its 21-day moving average on Monday
continued to move lower and dipped below its interim support of
QR23.90, thus confirming its downmove. We believe the stock may
continue to drift lower and test its next support of QR23.40. Any
penetration below QR23.40 may result in a sell-off and the stock may
pull toward QR22.45. However, a close above QR23.90 may provide
some relief. Meanwhile, both the indicators are looking weak.
Milaha: Short-Term – Downmove
QNNS has been experiencing a steady decline over the past few
days and continued to move lower penetrating below the support of
QR95.10. Moreover, with the RSI pointing down and the MACD
drifting away from the signal line in a bearish manner QNNS’
preferred direction seems to be on the downside. We believe the
stock may further decline to test QR92.90. However, if the stock
manages to reclaim QR95.10 it may halt its downmove.
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,734.15 DOWN UP 12,678.84 12,600.00 12,768.17 12,850.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,231.00 DOWN UP 4,211.42 4,148.08 4,247.34 4,301.89
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 49.90 UP UP 48.50 47.00 51.00 51.80
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 67.00 DOWN UP 66.30 65.75 67.80 68.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 63.00 DOWN UP 62.00 60.00 63.30 65.70
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 92.00 UP UP 90.00 89.00 93.90 96.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.50 DOWN UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 87.80
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 75.00 DOWN UP 74.80 72.50 76.00 77.00
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.97 DOWN UP 22.90 22.50 23.23 23.49
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 86.00 DOWN UP 83.00 81.70 86.25 87.00
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 183.00 DOWN UP 183.00 180.00 185.00 187.80
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 179.00 DOWN DOWN 178.30 175.00 180.00 181.40
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 180.00 DOWN UP 180.00 178.18 182.00 184.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 96.70 UP UP 95.00 93.00 97.00 98.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 64.60 DOWN UP 62.40 61.30 66.50 68.40
Real Estate Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.90 UP UP 38.40 37.40 39.20 40.35
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 25.65 FLAT UP 25.29 24.65 26.00 26.45
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 144.60 DOWN FLAT 143.50 141.80 145.00 147.40
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 18.05 DOWN UP 17.99 17.30 18.49 18.75
Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 23.65 DOWN UP 23.40 22.45 23.90 24.20
Milaha (QNNS QD)* 94.30 DOWN DOWN 92.90 91.30 95.10 96.50