19 June Daily technical trader


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19 June Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index recovered 0.57% on Wednesday to close at 12,591.32, snapping its three-day losing streak. The short-term trend remains negative with the index below its 21-day and 55-day moving averages. The index may witness some recovery after the sharp fall over the past few weeks. If the index can move above the 12,600 level it can proceed toward 12,680. On the flip side, if the index moves below the support of 12,450, it can move toward 12,250. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Upmove GISS gained 2.2% on Wednesday to close at QR92.80, supported by good volumes. As a result, the stock moved above its 55-day moving average. The RSI is moving higher, indicating strength in the upmove, while the MACD is flat. If the stock breaks out of this resistance it can move higher toward the QR95 level. However, investors should exercise caution if the stock slips back below the QR92 level. The support is seen at QR90.0. Qatar Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI index slipped marginally on Wednesday to close at 4,189.39. The MACD and the RSI continue to trend lower, indicating weakness in the index. The index has held on to its support level of 4,148 over the last couple of days, which is a positive sign. The index may recover from here and move toward its 55-day moving average (currently at 4,241). On the flip side, if the index slips below 4,148l, the next support is seen at 4,100 level. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Upmove DHBK recovered sharply on Wednesday, registering its second day of gains. The RSI has bounced back from the oversold zone, while the MACD has converged with the signal line. The stock is likely to continue its uptrend. The stock has short-term resistance at QR61.0, with the next resistance near the QR62.50 level. On the flipside, the stock has support at QR59.0. Investors should exercise caution if the stock slips below this level, as the next support is seen near QR57.50. Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Downtrend KCBK has broken its support and made three large red candlesticks on the charts, indicating weakness in the stock. The MACD is also diverging on the negative side, supporting this view. The 21-day moving average is also about to cross below the 55-day moving average. The stock may further move down toward its strong support level of QR21.0. However, investors should exercise caution if the stock closes above QR22.01, as that would indicate a trend reversal. Qatar Electricity & Water Co: Short-Term – Upmove QEWS recovered on Wednesday to close at QR186.0, moving above its resistance level of QR185.0. The stock is just below its 55-day moving average (at QR186.27). A move above this can take the stock toward its 21-day moving average (currently at QR190.25). However, investors should be cautious if the stock slips back below the QR185 level. On the downside, the next support for QEWS is seen at QR182.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,591.32 DOWN DOWN 12,513.65 12,465.50 12,678.84 12,768.18 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,189.39 DOWN DOWN 4,148.08 4,100.00 4,231.77 4,247.18 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 52.20 DOWN UP 51.80 49.75 52.30 55.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 64.90 DOWN DOWN 64.15 63.60 64.92 65.75 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 60.00 FLAT DOWN 57.40 56.50 61.0 62.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 93.00 DOWN UP 91.50 90.00 93.90 96.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 80.50 DOWN DOWN 78.90 78.30 80.70 83.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 76.90 DOWN UP 76.00 74.10 78.00 79.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 21.74 DOWN DOWN 21.49 21.00 22.01 22.50 Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 84.00 DOWN DOWN 83.00 81.70 85.00 87.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 168.00 DOWN DOWN 164.00 159.00 171.00 175.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 179.80 DOWN DOWN 178.30 175.50 180.00 181.40 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 186.00 FLAT DOWN 182.00 180.00 188.00 192.0 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 92.80 FLAT FLAT 90.00 86.60 93.00 95.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 60.00 DOWN DOWN 59.70 57.80 61.30 62.40 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.85 DOWN UP 38.40 37.40 39.20 39.70 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 24.56 DOWN DOWN 24.50 24.00 24.75 25.30 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 133.10 DOWN DOWN 132.00 130.0 137.50 139.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.60 DOWN UP 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.79 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 23.18 DOWN DOWN 23.00 22.45 23.40 23.90 Milaha (QNNS QD) 91.20 DOWN DOWN 90.00 88.70 91.30 93.00