13 February Daily technical trader


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13 February Daily technical trader

  1. 1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Upswing The QE Index continued its strong rally for the fifth consecutive session and rose around 91 points (0.80%), tagging another new 52week high. Moreover, the index surpassed the 11,400.0-11,450.0 levels for the first time since 2008 in a single swoop. In addition, the index developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating the possibility of a further rise toward the 11,480.0-11,500.0 levels. Meanwhile, the RSI is looking strong in the overbought territory. The QERI Index continued its bullish run and tagged another new alltime high of 3,284.77. However, the index was not able to hold onto its gains and reversed to close at 3,274.30. This action reveals that the index is in need of consolidation as buyers backed away from higher prices. We believe the index may drift lower near the 3,270.24 level before its next upmove. However, the index could continue to advance and tag new highs, if it clings on to the 3,270.24 level. MARK extended its upmove and tagged another all-time high. Moreover, the stock has been registering strong gains over the past few days and is accelerating on the upside. Further, the RSI and the MACD lines are in uptrend mode and are showing no immediate trend reversal signs indicating continued strength in the stock. We believe MARK may continue to move higher and tag new highs. However, any dip below the QR39.0 level may halt its upmove. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upswing Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Breakout Nakilat: Short-Term – Breakout QIBK continued to move higher yesterday tagging another new 52week high. The stock has been gaining strength over the past few days and is in bullish mode. Meanwhile, with the RSI moving strongly in the overbought territory, and the MACD diverging away from the signal line in a bullish manner, indicating QIBK’s preferred direction to be on the upside. We believe the stock may continue to rise toward QR79.70, followed by the QR80.20 level. MERS breached the important resistance of QR149.0 after consolidating below this level for the past few days, which is a positive signal. With volumes also picking up at this level, it appears potential buyers are stepping in. We believe the current higher push has enough steam to test and surpass its next resistance of QR151.50, targeting QR153.68. Both the RSI and the MACD lines are providing bullish signals indicating the possibility of a short-term rally. QGTS surpassed the key resistances of the QR21.07, QR21.44 and QR21.60 levels in a single trading session and tagged a 52-week high. We believe this strong breach of resistances and a recent spike in volumes have bullish implications. Moreover, QGTS developed a long bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating a likely higher move toward QR22.0. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence, while the MACD has crossed the signal line into the positive territory. Page 1 of 2
  2. 2. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Short Term Support Long Term First Resistance Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,452.97 UP UP 11,400.00 11,348.45 11,484.45 11,590.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,274.30 UP UP 3,253.72 3,240.37 3,300.00 3,330.00 Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 39.95 UP UP 39.10 38.00 42.00 43.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 71.60 DOWN UP 70.90 70.00 71.80 72.80 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 65.50 UP UP 64.00 63.30 65.70 66.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 79.40 UP UP 78.80 77.70 79.70 80.20 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 72.50 UP UP 71.50 70.30 73.00 73.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 82.00 UP UP 81.00 80.00 82.50 84.60 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 30.70 UP FLAT 29.95 29.15 31.00 31.45 Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 48.55 DOWN DOWN 47.15 46.00 49.30 50.30 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)* 150.60 UP UP 149.00 148.00 151.50 153.68 Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 177.00 DOWN UP 174.60 173.00 178.30 180.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 182.20 UP UP 180.00 177.20 182.50 184.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 83.80 UP UP 82.50 81.00 84.60 86.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 41.90 DOWN DOWN 41.00 41.00 39.50 44.20 Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 30.70 DOWN FLAT 30.10 29.70 30.85 31.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.61 DOWN DOWN 22.38 22.00 22.84 23.10 Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 146.10 DOWN UP 145.90 144.00 149.00 150.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.01 UP UP 11.60 11.44 12.09 12.15 Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 21.83 UP UP 21.44 21.07 22.00 22.50 Milaha (QNNS QD) 91.90 UP UP 91.30 90.00 92.00 94.50 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Industrials Industrials Real Estate Real Estate Telecom Telecom Transportation Transportat *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Sales Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2