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1 July Daily technical trader


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1 July Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Down The QE Index continued its losing spree as it fell 1.5% on Monday to close at 11,488.87. The index opened at 11,663, above its support of 11,646, but bears prevailed as the index broke two supports during the day. Both the momentum indicators as well as the moving averages suggest the short-term trend is bearish. The index is likely to continue on the downside with support seen at 11,453 and then at 11,338. On the upside, 11,562 is seen as the resistance zone. Nakilat: Short-Term – Downmove QGTS broke its support level of QR21.0 and dropped 3.81% to close at QR20.20. The fall was on relatively high volumes. Further, QGTS closed at the lowest point of the day, suggesting the stock can fall further from its current levels. The MACD is diverging away from the signal line on the negative side, while the RSI trending lower. The stock is likely to test its support of QR19.60 in the near-term, below which it can fall to QR19.0. QE Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Downmove The QERI index continued its downmove and closed 0.8% down at 3,798.84. The index opened below its Monday’s close, but managed to hold above its support of 3,692 level. However, the sentiment still appears bearish as RSI moved further down into the oversold zone, while MACD also edged lower. Further, the 21-day moving average has gone below the 55-day moving average. Thus, in the absence of any visible reversal sign, the index may move down toward 3,692. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Downmove DHBK made a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on Monday, as it declined 2.34% to close at 54.20, The RSI is making lower highs pattern, which is another negative signal, while the MACD is also trending lower. The stock is likely to continue its downtrend and test the support level of QR53.90. Once this level is broken, the stock could fall to QR53.0. However, investors should exercise caution if the stock moves above the QR57.0 level. Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Downmove QEWS could not capitalize on the bullish move of Sunday and fell 2.3% yesterday to close at QR172.90. A bearish piercing candlestick pattern has formed, indicating a build-up of bearish sentiment. The RSI is about to touch the 30 level, while the MACD continues its downward move. The stock can move toward QR169 on the downside, after which the next support is at QR166.30. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Downmove GISS slipped below both its 21-day and 55-day moving averages on Monday, as it closed at QR92.10. The MACD has given a negative crossover, dropping below the signal line, while the RSI is trending lower. The stock is likely to fall further toward its support of QR90, after which QR88 is the next support zone for the stock. However, investors should exercise caution if GISS moves back above the 55- day moving average (currently at QR92.85) on a closing basis.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,488.87 DOWN DOWN 11,453.00 11,338.41 11,561.56 11,646.44 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,798.84 DOWN DOWN 3,692.56 3,498.31 3,873.14 3,974.62 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 45.50 DOWN UP 44.15 43.50 47.20 48.50 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 61.90 DOWN DOWN 61.58 60.92 62.17 62.50 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 54.20 DOWN DOWN 53.90 53.00 54.50 55.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 82.10 DOWN UP 81.70 80.20 83.50 86.90 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 73.00 DOWN DOWN 72.50 71.50 74.40 75.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 80.00 FLAT UP 79.00 77.28 80.00 81.40 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 19.65 DOWN DOWN 19.30 19.00 19.90 20.00 Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 76.00 DOWN DOWN 73.00 67.50 78.10 79.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 169.20 FLAT DOWN 164.00 161.00 175.00 179.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 169.00 DOWN DOWN 167.80 166.80 169.50 173.90 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 172.90 FLAT DOWN 169.00 166.30 172.91 176.27 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 92.10 FLAT FLAT 92.00 90.00 93.00 95.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 49.90 DOWN DOWN 50.00 48.40 54.40 56.00 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 35.50 DOWN UP 34.80 34.60 36.50 37.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.50 DOWN DOWN 22.00 21.69 22.80 23.09 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 118.90 DOWN DOWN 117.70 110.50 123.70 124.37 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 15.70 DOWN UP 14.03 13.50 16.89 17.70 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 20.20 DOWN DOWN 19.60 19.00 20.83 20.98 Milaha (QNNS QD) 86.90 DOWN DOWN 85.00 83.80 87.30 88.00