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FACEBOOK GOES PUBLIC
WHAT NOW?

             A perspective on Facebook in 2012
                   from Publicis Modem London
FACEBOOK IS A BUSINESS
THAT COLLECTS USER DATA TO
SELL TO ADVERTISERS
        “If you are not paying for it, you're not the customer;
                               you're the product being sold”
                        — blue_beetle, 26.08.10, metafilter.com
BETWEEN APRIL AND JUNE,
THE COMPANY WILL GO PUBLIC
                         “The deal […] could raise as much as $10 billion
     and value the social network between $75 billion and $100 billion”
      — The Wall Street Journal, 28.01.12, Facebook readies IPO filing
SO HOW IS FACEBOOK
CURRENTLY PERFORMING?
WITH MORE THAN 845 MILLION
USERS, FACEBOOK IS THE
DOMINANT SOCIAL PLATFORM
                                                           845m
                                               680m
                                  550m
                      431m
         305m


        Sept. 2009   Mar. 2010   Sept. 2010   Mar. 2011   Dec. 2011
IN 2011, FACEBOOK GENERATED
$3.7 BILLION IN REVENUE
AND $1 BILLION IN PROFIT
                        — Facebook S-1’s filling, 01.02.11,
          Facebook IPO: what we've learned from its S-1 filing
AND FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS,                $3,711m

REVENUE HAS BEEN
GROWING RAPIDLY           $1,974m



                  $777m
          $272m
  $153m
  2007    2008    2009     2010           2011

                            — Facebook S-1’s filling
Advertising
                        85%


FACEBOOK GENERATES
REVENUE IN TWO WAYS:
ADVERTISING AND FB CREDITS

           Credits
            15%


                                   — Facebook S-1’s filling
DESPITE STRONG ADVERTISING
REVENUE, FACEBOOK HAS ROOM
TO GROW IN THE GLOBAL MARKET
         In 2010, Brands spent $64 billion in digital advertising
                               - ZenithOptimedia, 03.10.11,
               ZenithOptimedia Adspend Forecast Update Oct
IN 2010, FACEBOOK OWNED
3% OF THE PIE WHEREAS                                Google


GOOGLE OWNED 46%
                            The rest                  46%
                             36%




                AOL                      Yahoo
                2%                        9%
                 Facebook
                    3%
                      Microsoft
                         4%            — Daren Herman, 29.11.11,
                                           Total Digital Revenues
HOW CAN FACEBOOK INCREASE
ITS SHARE OF THE PIE?
TWO WAYS TO GROW REVENUE:
1.  ADD MORE USERS
2.  INCREASE REVENUE PER USER
ADDING MORE USERS
WILL BE A CHALLENGE

 “[Facebook] user growth had slowed in the U.S. and Canada… a deeper look…
                        shows its growth is also slowing in Europe and Asia....”
                                                — The Tennessean, 12.02.12,
                                       Facebook sees its growth slowing down
SO FACEBOOK MUST FOCUS
ON INCREASING AVERAGE
REVENUE PER USER


          2009   2010                    2011

                   — Based on Facebook S-1’s filling
FACEBOOK IS WELL BEHIND
GOOGLE WHEN IT COMES TO
REVENUE PER USER
      “Google generates 6X more revenue per user than Facebook”
                                  — Business Insider, 05.01.12,
                       Here's How Much A Unique Visitor Is Worth
“IT TOOK FACEBOOK
ALMOST 800 MINUTES OF USER
TIME TO GET $1 IN REVENUE”
                   — The Globe and Mail, 02.02.12,
             Why Facebook may not be a growth story
HOW CAN FACEBOOK INCREASE
AVERAGE REVENUE PER USER?
ENSURE THAT EVERY USER
IS LOCKED-IN

"Lock-in is the point at which users are so invested in their technology that even if
          competitors might offer better services, it’s not worth making the switch”
                                                              — Eli Pariser, 06.11
                            The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
BY ENSURING LOCK-IN, USER
TIME SPENT INCREASES AND
SO DOES THEIR DATA PROFILE
TIME SPENT, DATA AND
EFFECTIVENESS ARE THE KEYS
TO ATTRACTING BRAND SPEND
    “From the point of view of the online advertiser, the question is simple.
           Which company can deliver the most return on a dollar spent?”
                                                      — Eli Pariser, 06.11
                    The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
INCREASED TIME SPENT
MEANS SELLING MORE ADS

  “We now see that keeping traffic within Facebook via Fanning and Facebook
                           Application campaigns can reduce CPCs by 45%”

                                                    — TGB Digital, 01.12,
          Here's Facebook's Q4 Ad Performance In A Set Of Delightful Charts
WHEREAS INCREASED DATA
MEANS SELLING BETTER ADS

"As a business strategy, the Internet giants’ formula is simple: The more personally
    relevant their information offerings are, the more ads they can sell, and the
                              more likely you are to buy the products they’re offering”
                                                                — Eli Pariser, 06.11
                              The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
“THE FIGHT BETWEEN
GOOGLE AND FACEBOOK
HINGES ON WHICH CAN ACHIEVE
LOCK-IN FOR THE MOST USERS”
                                           — Eli Pariser, 06.11
         The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
FACEBOOK USED 3 APPROACHES
TO BUILD LOCK-IN FROM
THE BEGINNING
1. DEFINE USER’S IDENTITY
& CONNECT PEOPLE
TO PEOPLE


         2004   2006   2004   2005
2. ALLOW ANYONE TO CREATE
WITHIN THE PLATFORM



                2006
         2007
3. BECOME THE SOCIAL LAYER
THAT CONNECTS THE WEB



          2009   2006
SPREADING
                                                        THE SOCIAL LAYER




                                                    3
    FACEBOOK




                              GATHERING
                             THIRD PARTIES




    BUILDING
                        2
DIGITAL IDENTITY




1
         2004                      2007                          2009
    Facebook launched       Facebook launched              Facebook launched
        the Profile         platform applications            the Like button
IN 2011, FACEBOOK RELEASED
NEW PRODUCTS THAT
CONTINUE THIS STRATEGY
#1. 	
  
THE TIMELINE
A NEW DIGITAL IDENTITY
FOR EVERY USER
     “The next five years, the next era is going to be defined by the apps
                      and the depth of engagement that is now possible”

                                           — Mark Zuckerberg, f8 2011
THE TIMELINE RE-ARRANGES
YOUR PROFILE INFORMATION
1. COVER




2. STORIES   3. APPS
USERS CAN NOW ADD SPECIFIC
APPS TO THEIR TIMELINE
Facebook Goes Public. What now?
TIMELINE ALLOWS FACEBOOK
TO KNOW YOUR DETAILED
DIGITAL HISTORY, NOT JUST
YOUR CURRENT PROFILE
#2. 	
  
THE OPEN GRAPH
A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN HOW
SOCIAL EXPERIENCES WORK
             “All your stories, all your apps and a new
                          way to express who you are”
                        — Mark Zuckerberg, f8 2011
FACEBOOK KNEW WHAT YOU LIKE

    “Sharing content to Facebook meant clicking the "Like" button, cutting
                            and pasting a link into the status update box”
                                          — Read Write Web, 14.12.11,
                                  Top trends of 2011: Frictionless sharing
NOW WITH OPEN GRAPH,
FACEBOOK KNOWS WHAT YOU DO
 “Anytime you're reading news from a social news app or listening to music from a
   social music app, Facebook automatically shares it to your Facebook Timeline”
                                                  — Read Write Web, 14.12.11,
                                          Top trends of 2011: Frictionless sharing
BRANDS NEED TO
GO BEYOND THE LIKE…
                       “We want 100K fans”
                 — A common request, 2011
…AND THINK ABOUT ACTIONS

“This new expressive language means you will be able to add whatever verb you so
    choose. You can start to use words like read, watch, listen, buy and more in the
                               stories that get shown to friends of your "engagers.””
                                                                — AdAge, 23.09.11,
                                 Facebook Just Shifted From Scale to Engagement
— Facebook f8, 2011
WHAT ROLE DO PEOPLE
PLAY IN YOUR STORY?
    “With all content increasingly filtered through social networks, it's what
               people do with advertising rather than what they say about it
                     that will make all the difference this year. Guaranteed”
                                                         — AdAge, 16.01.12,
      Why Marketers Must Think in Verbs or Face Increasing Irrelevance
THE GUARDIAN
ON FACEBOOK
ACTION: ”READ”
OBJECT: “ARTICLES”
FORD
ON FORD.COM
ACTION: ”CUSTOMISE”
OBJECT: “CARS”
HOW DO THE OPEN GRAPH AND
TIMELINE INCREASE REVENUE
PER USER?
APPS ENHANCE
FACEBOOK’S DATA SET
  “At best, if a company knows which articles you read or what mood you’re in, it can
    serve up ads related to your interests. But at worst, it can make decisions on that
         basis that negatively affect your life. After you visit a page about Third World
backpacking, an insurance company with access to your Web history might decide to
                    increase your premium, law professor Jonathan Zittrain suggests.”
                                                                  — Eli Pariser, 06.11
                                The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
FACEBOOK KNOWS
WHO YOU ARE, WHAT YOU LIKE
& WHAT YOU ARE DOING (ONLINE)
AND THE CLOSER USERS ARE TO
FACEBOOK, THE MORE TARGETED
THEY CAN BE FOR BRANDS
For Valentine’s Day, Facebook Data Team shared the top coupling and de-coupling
                                      songs played by users via the Spotify App
                                              — Huffington Post, 13.02.12,
  Facebook Breakup Songs: Data Team Reveals Top Spotify Songs For Breakups,
                                                          New Relationships
IMPROVED TARGETING
IMPROVES EFFICIENCY

             “Facebook Sponsored Stories Ads Have 46% Higher CTR”
                                            — TGB Digital, 16.01.12,
     Here's Facebook's Q4 Ad Performance In A Set Of Delightful Charts
TIMELINE AND OPEN GRAPH
BUILD ON FACEBOOK’S LOCK-IN
STRATEGY
SPREADING
                                                        THE SOCIAL LAYER




                                                    3
    FACEBOOK




                              GATHERING
                             THIRD PARTIES




    BUILDING
DIGITAL IDENTITY
                        2                           + OPEN GRAPH new




1
+ TIMELINE new

         2004                      2007                          2009
    Facebook launched       Facebook launched              Facebook launched
        the Profile         platform applications            the Like button
WHAT NEXT?
9 “WHAT IF’S?” FROM US
#1. 	
  
WHAT IF ALL BRAND PAGES
BECOME BRAND TIMELINES? 	
  
Brands currently use pages to act as social hubs for specific experiences.
                        Pages become the place where brands highlight different
                            applications that they have developed for their users.
With Timeline, brands will be able to create a more custom-experience within
     the existing template. Multiple pages are yet to be considered, however
            Launch Announcement Expected at Feb. 29 Marketer Conference
                                                               — AdAge, 15.02.2012,
                                   Facebook to Release Timeline for Brands This Month
#2. 	
  
WHAT IF YOU COULD TARGET
ADS BASED ON A USERS
DETAILED HISTORY? 	
  
Actions-Based Ad Targeting: Brands can target a number of things using Facebook’s
existing ad platform – demographic, location, listed interests, etc. But what if you could
                     target a person’s historic actions? The applications that they use?
                           The music that they listen to? The news that they read? Etc.
                               BlackBerry could target all users who read an article
                                          about Power Problems with a specific ads
#3. 	
  
WHAT IF FACEBOOK SOLD ADS
BASED ON PLATFORM USAGE
ON OTHER SITES? 	
  
The Facebook Platform is used across hundreds of thousands of websites – from
 “Like’ buttons to Facebook logins. Facebook keeps this data and can develop robust
         profiles of what their users are looking at, sharing and buying across the web.
      Facebook could start to target advertising based on web-actions, not just within
Facebook – for example, target a New York Times reader or Trip Advisor user without
                                                   having to work directly with the brand
#4. 	
  
WHAT IF THE STREAM
PREDICTED FUTURE ACTIONS? 	
  
The ‘Future Stream’ – As Facebook Graph Rank becomes more action focused,
  historic user patterns could help predict future ones. For example, if you go to the
same pub each week or cook the same meals, Facebook could alert your friends to
                                     ‘things you might be doing’ in the next few days.
#5. 	
  
WHAT IF FACEBOOK
CREATES ITS OWN PRODUCT
RECOMMENDATION ENGINE? 	
  
“Products you may want’ – Facebook already has a ‘People you may know’ and
‘Recommended Pages’ product. Why not use a users content consumption habits,
friend networks and application profiles to develop a product-recommendation tool
  similar to Amazon? With social graph data, the recommendations would combine
                                  friend habits along with individual user interests.
#6. 	
  
WHAT IF FACEBOOK STARTED
PAYING USERS TO MARKET
PRODUCTS?	
  
Facebook currently 'piggybacks' on their users actions (via Sponsored Stories) by
providing targeted executions to their friends - why not actively incentivise influential
                                             users to recommend different products?
                   Though the social graph, Facebook can analyse what categories,
                           topics and products their users already carry influence in
                       — Paraphrased from Dan Haggard & his 'Trend Setter' idea,
         The Social Network, the End of Intimacy, and the Birth of Hacker Sensibility
#7. 	
  
WHAT IF FACEBOOK CREDITS
BECOME THE DOMINANT
DIGITAL CURRENCY? 	
  
Facebook Credits + NFC = True Mobile Wallet – as more and more mobile
 devices are NFC-enabled, more retailers will provide terminals that allow for
          quick, tap payments. If Facebook continues to be a popular mobile
      application, credits could become the easiest way to pay for purchases
                                                             — Image credit
#8. 	
  
WHAT IF FACEBOOK MADE
A ‘PAUSE SHARING’ BUTTON? 	
  
Turn off ‘frictionless sharing’ – with every application auto-publishing user actions
  and a second-by-second Ticker updating, users may quickly tire of having all their
   actions shared. Why not give users a clear ‘switch’ to turn their sharing on or off?
                                        — Techland, Harry McCracken, 03.10.2011,
                           Facebook’s open graph needs new approches to privacy
#9. 	
  
WHAT IF FACEBOOK EXTENDS
ITS AD NETWORK TO OTHER
WEBSITES?	
  
Extending Ads Network – Facebook is the most popular social network
                      website and has one of the biggest set of data.
            Facebook could extend its ads network to other websites,
                                               services and devices
WHAT DO YOU THINK
FACEBOOK COULD DO NEXT?

            Let us know on Twitter by using #fbwhatif
                                @PublicisModemUK
THANKS FOR READING
– Tyler Turnbull,                    – Damien Le Castrec,
Joint Head of Planning               Planner
  tyler.turnbull@publicismodem.com     damien.lecastrec@publicismodem.com
  @tyturnbull                          @damienlc
  http://gplus.to/tyturnbull           http://gplus.to/damienlc
THANKS FOR THEIR INSPIRATION
_

    blue_beetle, 26.08.10, metafilter.com
    The Wall Street Journal, 28.01.12, Facebook readies IPO filing
    Daren Herman, 29.11.11, Total Digital Revenues
    The Tennessean, 12.02.12, Facebook sees its growth slowing down
    Business Insider, 05.01.12, Here's How Much A Unique Visitor Is Worth
    The Globe and Mail, 02.02.12, Why Facebook may not be a growth story
    Eli Pariser, 06.11, The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
    TGB Digital, 01.12, Here's Facebook's Q4 Ad Performance In A Set Of Delightful
     Charts
    Mark Zuckerberg, f8 2011
    Read Write Web, 14.12.11, Top trends of 2011: Frictionless sharing
    AdAge, 23.09.11, Facebook Just Shifted From Scale to Engagement
    AdAge, 16.01.12, Why Marketers Must Think in Verbs or Face Increasing Irrelevance
    Mashable, 29.09.2011, Why Facebook Timeline Will Be Huge for Brands
    Dan Haggard & his 'Trend Setter' idea, The Social Network, the End of Intimacy, and
     the Birth of Hacker Sensibility
    Techland, Harry McCracken, 03.10.2011, Facebook’s open graph needs new
     approches to privacy
ABOUT PUBLICIS MODEM
_

  Publicis Modem is a full service digital agency within the Publicis Worldwide
  network offering strategy, creative, analytics, user experience, multi-platform (web,
  mobile, social, gaming) development, paid media, search, social media and eCRM
  services.

  With more than 1,500 people deployed across 30 countries around the world,
  Publicis Modem is one of the largest and most global digital agencies in the world,
  enabling us to serve Fortune 500 brands on a global basis including LG
  Electronics, RBS, Visa, Sanofi and General Mills.

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Facebook Goes Public. What now?

  • 1. FACEBOOK GOES PUBLIC WHAT NOW? A perspective on Facebook in 2012 from Publicis Modem London
  • 2. FACEBOOK IS A BUSINESS THAT COLLECTS USER DATA TO SELL TO ADVERTISERS “If you are not paying for it, you're not the customer; you're the product being sold” — blue_beetle, 26.08.10, metafilter.com
  • 3. BETWEEN APRIL AND JUNE, THE COMPANY WILL GO PUBLIC “The deal […] could raise as much as $10 billion and value the social network between $75 billion and $100 billion” — The Wall Street Journal, 28.01.12, Facebook readies IPO filing
  • 4. SO HOW IS FACEBOOK CURRENTLY PERFORMING?
  • 5. WITH MORE THAN 845 MILLION USERS, FACEBOOK IS THE DOMINANT SOCIAL PLATFORM 845m 680m 550m 431m 305m Sept. 2009 Mar. 2010 Sept. 2010 Mar. 2011 Dec. 2011
  • 6. IN 2011, FACEBOOK GENERATED $3.7 BILLION IN REVENUE AND $1 BILLION IN PROFIT — Facebook S-1’s filling, 01.02.11, Facebook IPO: what we've learned from its S-1 filing
  • 7. AND FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS, $3,711m REVENUE HAS BEEN GROWING RAPIDLY $1,974m $777m $272m $153m 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 — Facebook S-1’s filling
  • 8. Advertising 85% FACEBOOK GENERATES REVENUE IN TWO WAYS: ADVERTISING AND FB CREDITS Credits 15% — Facebook S-1’s filling
  • 9. DESPITE STRONG ADVERTISING REVENUE, FACEBOOK HAS ROOM TO GROW IN THE GLOBAL MARKET In 2010, Brands spent $64 billion in digital advertising - ZenithOptimedia, 03.10.11, ZenithOptimedia Adspend Forecast Update Oct
  • 10. IN 2010, FACEBOOK OWNED 3% OF THE PIE WHEREAS Google GOOGLE OWNED 46% The rest 46% 36% AOL Yahoo 2% 9% Facebook 3% Microsoft 4% — Daren Herman, 29.11.11, Total Digital Revenues
  • 11. HOW CAN FACEBOOK INCREASE ITS SHARE OF THE PIE?
  • 12. TWO WAYS TO GROW REVENUE: 1.  ADD MORE USERS 2.  INCREASE REVENUE PER USER
  • 13. ADDING MORE USERS WILL BE A CHALLENGE “[Facebook] user growth had slowed in the U.S. and Canada… a deeper look… shows its growth is also slowing in Europe and Asia....” — The Tennessean, 12.02.12, Facebook sees its growth slowing down
  • 14. SO FACEBOOK MUST FOCUS ON INCREASING AVERAGE REVENUE PER USER 2009 2010 2011 — Based on Facebook S-1’s filling
  • 15. FACEBOOK IS WELL BEHIND GOOGLE WHEN IT COMES TO REVENUE PER USER “Google generates 6X more revenue per user than Facebook” — Business Insider, 05.01.12, Here's How Much A Unique Visitor Is Worth
  • 16. “IT TOOK FACEBOOK ALMOST 800 MINUTES OF USER TIME TO GET $1 IN REVENUE” — The Globe and Mail, 02.02.12, Why Facebook may not be a growth story
  • 17. HOW CAN FACEBOOK INCREASE AVERAGE REVENUE PER USER?
  • 18. ENSURE THAT EVERY USER IS LOCKED-IN "Lock-in is the point at which users are so invested in their technology that even if competitors might offer better services, it’s not worth making the switch” — Eli Pariser, 06.11 The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
  • 19. BY ENSURING LOCK-IN, USER TIME SPENT INCREASES AND SO DOES THEIR DATA PROFILE
  • 20. TIME SPENT, DATA AND EFFECTIVENESS ARE THE KEYS TO ATTRACTING BRAND SPEND “From the point of view of the online advertiser, the question is simple. Which company can deliver the most return on a dollar spent?” — Eli Pariser, 06.11 The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
  • 21. INCREASED TIME SPENT MEANS SELLING MORE ADS “We now see that keeping traffic within Facebook via Fanning and Facebook Application campaigns can reduce CPCs by 45%” — TGB Digital, 01.12, Here's Facebook's Q4 Ad Performance In A Set Of Delightful Charts
  • 22. WHEREAS INCREASED DATA MEANS SELLING BETTER ADS "As a business strategy, the Internet giants’ formula is simple: The more personally relevant their information offerings are, the more ads they can sell, and the more likely you are to buy the products they’re offering” — Eli Pariser, 06.11 The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
  • 23. “THE FIGHT BETWEEN GOOGLE AND FACEBOOK HINGES ON WHICH CAN ACHIEVE LOCK-IN FOR THE MOST USERS” — Eli Pariser, 06.11 The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
  • 24. FACEBOOK USED 3 APPROACHES TO BUILD LOCK-IN FROM THE BEGINNING
  • 25. 1. DEFINE USER’S IDENTITY & CONNECT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE 2004 2006 2004 2005
  • 26. 2. ALLOW ANYONE TO CREATE WITHIN THE PLATFORM 2006 2007
  • 27. 3. BECOME THE SOCIAL LAYER THAT CONNECTS THE WEB 2009 2006
  • 28. SPREADING THE SOCIAL LAYER 3 FACEBOOK GATHERING THIRD PARTIES BUILDING 2 DIGITAL IDENTITY 1 2004 2007 2009 Facebook launched Facebook launched Facebook launched the Profile platform applications the Like button
  • 29. IN 2011, FACEBOOK RELEASED NEW PRODUCTS THAT CONTINUE THIS STRATEGY
  • 30. #1.   THE TIMELINE A NEW DIGITAL IDENTITY FOR EVERY USER “The next five years, the next era is going to be defined by the apps and the depth of engagement that is now possible” — Mark Zuckerberg, f8 2011
  • 31. THE TIMELINE RE-ARRANGES YOUR PROFILE INFORMATION
  • 33. USERS CAN NOW ADD SPECIFIC APPS TO THEIR TIMELINE
  • 35. TIMELINE ALLOWS FACEBOOK TO KNOW YOUR DETAILED DIGITAL HISTORY, NOT JUST YOUR CURRENT PROFILE
  • 36. #2.   THE OPEN GRAPH A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN HOW SOCIAL EXPERIENCES WORK “All your stories, all your apps and a new way to express who you are” — Mark Zuckerberg, f8 2011
  • 37. FACEBOOK KNEW WHAT YOU LIKE “Sharing content to Facebook meant clicking the "Like" button, cutting and pasting a link into the status update box” — Read Write Web, 14.12.11, Top trends of 2011: Frictionless sharing
  • 38. NOW WITH OPEN GRAPH, FACEBOOK KNOWS WHAT YOU DO “Anytime you're reading news from a social news app or listening to music from a social music app, Facebook automatically shares it to your Facebook Timeline” — Read Write Web, 14.12.11, Top trends of 2011: Frictionless sharing
  • 39. BRANDS NEED TO GO BEYOND THE LIKE… “We want 100K fans” — A common request, 2011
  • 40. …AND THINK ABOUT ACTIONS “This new expressive language means you will be able to add whatever verb you so choose. You can start to use words like read, watch, listen, buy and more in the stories that get shown to friends of your "engagers.”” — AdAge, 23.09.11, Facebook Just Shifted From Scale to Engagement
  • 42. WHAT ROLE DO PEOPLE PLAY IN YOUR STORY? “With all content increasingly filtered through social networks, it's what people do with advertising rather than what they say about it that will make all the difference this year. Guaranteed” — AdAge, 16.01.12, Why Marketers Must Think in Verbs or Face Increasing Irrelevance
  • 43. THE GUARDIAN ON FACEBOOK ACTION: ”READ” OBJECT: “ARTICLES”
  • 45. HOW DO THE OPEN GRAPH AND TIMELINE INCREASE REVENUE PER USER?
  • 46. APPS ENHANCE FACEBOOK’S DATA SET “At best, if a company knows which articles you read or what mood you’re in, it can serve up ads related to your interests. But at worst, it can make decisions on that basis that negatively affect your life. After you visit a page about Third World backpacking, an insurance company with access to your Web history might decide to increase your premium, law professor Jonathan Zittrain suggests.” — Eli Pariser, 06.11 The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
  • 47. FACEBOOK KNOWS WHO YOU ARE, WHAT YOU LIKE & WHAT YOU ARE DOING (ONLINE)
  • 48. AND THE CLOSER USERS ARE TO FACEBOOK, THE MORE TARGETED THEY CAN BE FOR BRANDS For Valentine’s Day, Facebook Data Team shared the top coupling and de-coupling songs played by users via the Spotify App — Huffington Post, 13.02.12, Facebook Breakup Songs: Data Team Reveals Top Spotify Songs For Breakups, New Relationships
  • 49. IMPROVED TARGETING IMPROVES EFFICIENCY “Facebook Sponsored Stories Ads Have 46% Higher CTR” — TGB Digital, 16.01.12, Here's Facebook's Q4 Ad Performance In A Set Of Delightful Charts
  • 50. TIMELINE AND OPEN GRAPH BUILD ON FACEBOOK’S LOCK-IN STRATEGY
  • 51. SPREADING THE SOCIAL LAYER 3 FACEBOOK GATHERING THIRD PARTIES BUILDING DIGITAL IDENTITY 2 + OPEN GRAPH new 1 + TIMELINE new 2004 2007 2009 Facebook launched Facebook launched Facebook launched the Profile platform applications the Like button
  • 52. WHAT NEXT? 9 “WHAT IF’S?” FROM US
  • 53. #1.   WHAT IF ALL BRAND PAGES BECOME BRAND TIMELINES?  
  • 54. Brands currently use pages to act as social hubs for specific experiences. Pages become the place where brands highlight different applications that they have developed for their users. With Timeline, brands will be able to create a more custom-experience within the existing template. Multiple pages are yet to be considered, however Launch Announcement Expected at Feb. 29 Marketer Conference — AdAge, 15.02.2012, Facebook to Release Timeline for Brands This Month
  • 55. #2.   WHAT IF YOU COULD TARGET ADS BASED ON A USERS DETAILED HISTORY?  
  • 56. Actions-Based Ad Targeting: Brands can target a number of things using Facebook’s existing ad platform – demographic, location, listed interests, etc. But what if you could target a person’s historic actions? The applications that they use? The music that they listen to? The news that they read? Etc. BlackBerry could target all users who read an article about Power Problems with a specific ads
  • 57. #3.   WHAT IF FACEBOOK SOLD ADS BASED ON PLATFORM USAGE ON OTHER SITES?  
  • 58. The Facebook Platform is used across hundreds of thousands of websites – from “Like’ buttons to Facebook logins. Facebook keeps this data and can develop robust profiles of what their users are looking at, sharing and buying across the web. Facebook could start to target advertising based on web-actions, not just within Facebook – for example, target a New York Times reader or Trip Advisor user without having to work directly with the brand
  • 59. #4.   WHAT IF THE STREAM PREDICTED FUTURE ACTIONS?  
  • 60. The ‘Future Stream’ – As Facebook Graph Rank becomes more action focused, historic user patterns could help predict future ones. For example, if you go to the same pub each week or cook the same meals, Facebook could alert your friends to ‘things you might be doing’ in the next few days.
  • 61. #5.   WHAT IF FACEBOOK CREATES ITS OWN PRODUCT RECOMMENDATION ENGINE?  
  • 62. “Products you may want’ – Facebook already has a ‘People you may know’ and ‘Recommended Pages’ product. Why not use a users content consumption habits, friend networks and application profiles to develop a product-recommendation tool similar to Amazon? With social graph data, the recommendations would combine friend habits along with individual user interests.
  • 63. #6.   WHAT IF FACEBOOK STARTED PAYING USERS TO MARKET PRODUCTS?  
  • 64. Facebook currently 'piggybacks' on their users actions (via Sponsored Stories) by providing targeted executions to their friends - why not actively incentivise influential users to recommend different products? Though the social graph, Facebook can analyse what categories, topics and products their users already carry influence in — Paraphrased from Dan Haggard & his 'Trend Setter' idea, The Social Network, the End of Intimacy, and the Birth of Hacker Sensibility
  • 65. #7.   WHAT IF FACEBOOK CREDITS BECOME THE DOMINANT DIGITAL CURRENCY?  
  • 66. Facebook Credits + NFC = True Mobile Wallet – as more and more mobile devices are NFC-enabled, more retailers will provide terminals that allow for quick, tap payments. If Facebook continues to be a popular mobile application, credits could become the easiest way to pay for purchases — Image credit
  • 67. #8.   WHAT IF FACEBOOK MADE A ‘PAUSE SHARING’ BUTTON?  
  • 68. Turn off ‘frictionless sharing’ – with every application auto-publishing user actions and a second-by-second Ticker updating, users may quickly tire of having all their actions shared. Why not give users a clear ‘switch’ to turn their sharing on or off? — Techland, Harry McCracken, 03.10.2011, Facebook’s open graph needs new approches to privacy
  • 69. #9.   WHAT IF FACEBOOK EXTENDS ITS AD NETWORK TO OTHER WEBSITES?  
  • 70. Extending Ads Network – Facebook is the most popular social network website and has one of the biggest set of data. Facebook could extend its ads network to other websites, services and devices
  • 71. WHAT DO YOU THINK FACEBOOK COULD DO NEXT? Let us know on Twitter by using #fbwhatif @PublicisModemUK
  • 72. THANKS FOR READING – Tyler Turnbull, – Damien Le Castrec, Joint Head of Planning Planner tyler.turnbull@publicismodem.com damien.lecastrec@publicismodem.com @tyturnbull @damienlc http://gplus.to/tyturnbull http://gplus.to/damienlc
  • 73. THANKS FOR THEIR INSPIRATION _   blue_beetle, 26.08.10, metafilter.com   The Wall Street Journal, 28.01.12, Facebook readies IPO filing   Daren Herman, 29.11.11, Total Digital Revenues   The Tennessean, 12.02.12, Facebook sees its growth slowing down   Business Insider, 05.01.12, Here's How Much A Unique Visitor Is Worth   The Globe and Mail, 02.02.12, Why Facebook may not be a growth story   Eli Pariser, 06.11, The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You   TGB Digital, 01.12, Here's Facebook's Q4 Ad Performance In A Set Of Delightful Charts   Mark Zuckerberg, f8 2011   Read Write Web, 14.12.11, Top trends of 2011: Frictionless sharing   AdAge, 23.09.11, Facebook Just Shifted From Scale to Engagement   AdAge, 16.01.12, Why Marketers Must Think in Verbs or Face Increasing Irrelevance   Mashable, 29.09.2011, Why Facebook Timeline Will Be Huge for Brands   Dan Haggard & his 'Trend Setter' idea, The Social Network, the End of Intimacy, and the Birth of Hacker Sensibility   Techland, Harry McCracken, 03.10.2011, Facebook’s open graph needs new approches to privacy
  • 74. ABOUT PUBLICIS MODEM _ Publicis Modem is a full service digital agency within the Publicis Worldwide network offering strategy, creative, analytics, user experience, multi-platform (web, mobile, social, gaming) development, paid media, search, social media and eCRM services. With more than 1,500 people deployed across 30 countries around the world, Publicis Modem is one of the largest and most global digital agencies in the world, enabling us to serve Fortune 500 brands on a global basis including LG Electronics, RBS, Visa, Sanofi and General Mills.

Editor's Notes

  1. Facebook has been able to increase its world-wide advertising revenue from $738 million in 2009 to $3.8 billion in 2011
  2. Facebook has been able to increase its world-wide advertising revenue from $738 million in 2009 to $3.8 billion in 2011
  3. IN 2010, BRANDS SPENT $64 BILLION IN DIGITAL ADVERTISING
  4. GOOGLE GENERATES 6X MORE REVENUE PER USER THAN FACEBOOK
  5. IN 2009, FACEBOOK SET OUT TO BECOME THE SOCIAL LAYER FOR THE ENTIRE WEB.
  6. Image credit: http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?q=facebook+mobile+iphone+nfc&um=1&hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&biw=1126&bih=613&tbm=isch&tbnid=6qJx87nyeIZbJM:&imgrefurl=http://thetechjournal.com/electronics/computer/software/mobile-software-computer/intel-looking-to-deploy-nfc-in-future-smartphone-chips.xhtml&docid=2bvn3Z2s8zVR_M&imgurl=http://cdn.thetechjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/nfc.png&w=431&h=305&ei=W7EiT-7bC4PE0QXMsMifCg&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=820&vpy=291&dur=2004&hovh=189&hovw=267&tx=184&ty=68&sig=105421484171144336703&page=1&tbnh=125&tbnw=186&start=0&ndsp=16&ved=1t:429,r:10,s:0