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Scenarios To Strategy


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Scenarios to strategy was presented to New South Wales public library staff by Oliver Freeman and Richard Watson as past of the New South Wales Public Library research project on developing scenarios for the future of New South Wales public libraries, 28 July 2009

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Scenarios To Strategy

  1. 1. Introduced by Oliver
  2. 2. Human Nature Human Nature
  3. 3. Global Financial Crisis
  4. 4. 3 Burning Issues Globalisation Technological Change
  5. 5. Social Networks
  6. 6. Environmental Change
  7. 7. The Scenario Quest Process Social Change
  8. 8. Impact of generational change Generational Change
  9. 9. The Scenario Quest Process Introduced by Oliver
  10. 10. Scenario Learning <ul><li>Collective </li></ul><ul><li>Reflexive </li></ul><ul><li>Experiential </li></ul><ul><li>Systemic </li></ul>
  11. 11. Learning to be Strategic STEP 3 Scenario Logics STEP 2 Learning to Generate Scenarios INSPECT Environmental Influences Critical Uncertainties Scenario Narratives Scenario Learning Logic Plausible Scenarios Strategy Testing Strategic Designs Strategic Challenges Question Design 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 STEP 1 Learning to Identify and Focus Issues Framing Question Key Factor Analysis Issues Identification
  12. 12. <ul><ul><ul><li>… . represented by the Scenario QUEST™ Foresight Methodology </li></ul></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Scenario Practice <ul><li>Learn about the key issues we face </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the influences changing our world </li></ul><ul><li>Create alternative futures relevant to the issues and responding to the influences </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the strategic implications of these futures </li></ul><ul><li>Create adaptive and generative strategies for today </li></ul>
  14. 14. The Public Library Framing Questions <ul><li>What professional skills & attitudes will public library staff in NSW be demonstrating in 2030 in order to be successful in the alternative futures in which they might operate? </li></ul><ul><li>Where will the leadership and funding that drives this success come from? </li></ul>
  16. 16. NSW Public Libraries Public Libraries as an Organisational System
  17. 17. Environment NSPECT NSW Public Libraries
  18. 18. NSW Public Libraries NATURAL SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL TECHNOLOGICAL The Environment as a set of Interacting Influences
  20. 20. Four Draft Scenarios Introduced by Richard
  21. 22. Scenario 1 Overview <ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Mood: survivalist </li></ul><ul><li>Present day link: going backwards </li></ul><ul><li>Physical books: valued </li></ul><ul><li>Libraries: re-discovered </li></ul>Silent Spring <ul><li>Shock Influences </li></ul><ul><li>climate change </li></ul><ul><li>resource shortages </li></ul><ul><li>drift away from digital </li></ul><ul><li>technology rejected/restrained </li></ul><ul><li>Consequent Scenario </li></ul><ul><li>slower and more sustainable </li></ul><ul><li>re-balancing, switching things off </li></ul><ul><li>shift to local living </li></ul><ul><li>renaissance of physical books </li></ul><ul><li>need for safe community spaces </li></ul>
  22. 23. Scenario 2 Overview <ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Mood: harmonious </li></ul><ul><li>Present day link: long boom </li></ul><ul><li>Physical books: declining </li></ul><ul><li>Libraries: third spaces </li></ul>Rise of the Creative Class <ul><li>Shock Influences </li></ul><ul><li>high rate of technology change </li></ul><ul><li>shift to digital living </li></ul><ul><li>declining attention spans </li></ul><ul><li>too much information </li></ul><ul><li>underlying anxiety </li></ul><ul><li>Consequent Scenario </li></ul><ul><li>expansion of library services </li></ul><ul><li>urban/rural divide </li></ul><ul><li>format instability </li></ul><ul><li>library polarisation </li></ul>
  23. 24. Scenario 3 Overview <ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Mood: bewilderment </li></ul><ul><li>Present day link: acceleration </li></ul><ul><li>Physical books: leisure use </li></ul><ul><li>Libraries: silver lining </li></ul>Future Shock <ul><li>Shock Influences </li></ul><ul><li>resource shortages </li></ul><ul><li>price spikes </li></ul><ul><li>information overload </li></ul><ul><li>generational divides </li></ul><ul><li>Consequent Scenario </li></ul><ul><li>shortages of everything </li></ul><ul><li>internet brownouts </li></ul><ul><li>anxiety & uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>media mayhem </li></ul>
  24. 25. Scenario 4 Overview <ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Mood: ambivalent </li></ul><ul><li>Present day link: digitalisation </li></ul><ul><li>Physical books: dying </li></ul><ul><li>Libraries: low use </li></ul>Being Digital <ul><li>Shock Influences </li></ul><ul><li>digitalisation & virtualisation </li></ul><ul><li>ubiquitous connectivity </li></ul><ul><li>e-government </li></ul><ul><li>Consequent Scenario </li></ul><ul><li>fast paced </li></ul><ul><li>rise of the BRICs </li></ul><ul><li>GRIN technologies </li></ul><ul><li>e-everything </li></ul><ul><li>convenience rules! </li></ul>
  25. 26. The Strategic Domains Introduced by Oliver
  26. 27. 2 The Strategic Domains
  27. 28. Professional Development Resourcing Leadership & Influence Resources Branding & Identity Community engagement The Strategic Domains Governance & Regulation
  28. 29. Strategic Implications Introduced by Richard
  29. 30. Strategies within a Strategic Domain Strategy A Strategy B Strategy D Strategy C Strategy E Strategy F
  30. 31. Strategic Options Introduced by Oliver
  31. 32. Strategies by Domain Across the Scenarios Strategy A No Brainer Strategy B Risky Strategy D Keep Safe Strategy C No Brainer Strategy E Risky Strategy F Risky
  32. 33. Challenges for Today Introduced by Richard and Oliver
  33. 34. 8 Transformations 3 What should our high level prioritised objectives look like for the Plan period? Allan Tweet! “ I wonder what we should be doing now….? ”
  34. 35. The Last Word Everyone!