Summer/Fall 2013 Economic Update

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"Summer/Fall 2013 Economic Update" webinar slides presented September 12, 2013, by Kenneth Hunter on behalf of American Society for Public Administration (ASPA)

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Summer/Fall 2013 Economic Update

  1. 1. Summer/Fall 2013 Economic Overview Presented By Kenneth Hunter, MPA ABFM Executive Committee Editor, Line Item September 12, 2013
  2. 2. Evaluating the Economy
  3. 3. Sources for Information
  4. 4. Understanding Productivity
  5. 5. 2013q2, 1.6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2005q1 2005q2 2005q3 2005q4 2006q1 2006q2 2006q3 2006q4 2007q1 2007q2 2007q3 2007q4 2008q1 2008q2 2008q3 2008q4 2009q1 2009q2 2009q3 2009q4 2010q1 2010q2 2010q3 2010q4 2011q1 2011q2 2011q3 2011q4 2012q1 2012q2 2012q3 2012q4 2013q1 2013q2 Annualized US Chained GDP Growth, 2005-Present 1980-2005 Average, 3.2%
  6. 6. 1.7% 2.0% 3.6% 1.3% 1.6% -0.6% -0.5% 2.1% 0.0% 2.5% 3.4% -5.4% -5.5% -5.7% 5.9% 5.8% 6.3% 1.7% 1.4% 3.4% 0.4% 1.7% 1.2% 2.6% -0.4% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment Intellectual property products Residential Change in private inventories Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services Govt. expenditures & gross investment Federal National defense Nondefense State and local Annual Growth Rate, Elements of Chained US GDP, 2005-Present
  7. 7. 3.7% 0.9% -0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 5.6% 7.8% -1.2% -0.4% -0.8% 0.0% 0.7% -1.7% 1.4% 3.8% 6.2% 0.2% 3.3% -2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 0.3% 3.8% -1.2% 3.2% 3.1% 1.9% -3.2% 3.4% 2.0% 2.5% -1.6% 0.7% 1.0% 2.2% 0.2% 2.8% -0.6% 2.9% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Canada Chile China Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Russian Federation Slovak Republic South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States Euro area (17 countries) G20 2012 Chained GDP Growth
  8. 8. 44,785 43,848 40,102 41,455 22,211 6,091 26,600 42,176 23,060 38,282 36,249 41,231 25,071 22,124 37,783 43,579 29,830 33,139 35,207 30,800 91,377 18,321 43,146 32,150 65,638 22,167 25,230 23,622 25,323 27,609 32,081 43,176 53,733 18,078 36,892 49,614 36,369 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile China Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Russian Federation Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States OECD Total 2012 GDP Per Capita ($US)
  9. 9. 5.9% 5.8% 1.9% 6.3% 5.0% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 6.6% 6.0% 7.7% 9.6% 5.6% -0.7% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6% 6.6% 1.8% 5.5% 8.8% 3.3% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Exports of goods and services Exports of goods Foods, feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Durable goods Nondurable goods Capital goods, except automotive Civilian aircraft, engines, and parts Other Automotive vehicles, engines, and parts Consumer goods, except automotive Durable goods Nondurable goods Other Exports of services Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts Travel Passenger fares Other transportation Royalties and license fees Other private services Other Annual Growth Rate, Chained Values of US Exports, 2005-Present
  10. 10. July 2008, 5.4% July 2013, 1.8% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Jan… Apr… Jul… Oct… Jan… Apr… Jul… Oct… Jan… Apr… Jul… Oct… Jan… Apr… Jul… Oct… Jan… Apr… Jul… Oct… Jan… Apr… Jul… Oct… Jan… Apr… Jul… Oct… Jan… Apr… Jul… 1-Yr Change in Chained CPI, All Items, January 2006-Present
  11. 11. The “market” certainly recovered! Where’s the “Wealth”?
  12. 12. Are Markets “Stressed”?
  13. 13. Treasury Yields Ticking Upward
  14. 14. Dollar’s Position Helping Exports
  15. 15. Housing Market Slowly Recovering
  16. 16. Mortgage Rates Climbing
  17. 17. Energy Costs Trending Upward
  18. 18. Where do we stand on volatility? Crude Oil Gold S&P 500
  19. 19. How are Individuals Doing? -115,000 848,000 2,006,000 -.5M .M .5M 1.M 1.5M 2.M 2.5M Last 1 Month Since Start of 2013 Since August 2012 Change in US Civilian Employment, August 2013
  20. 20. Published 9/6/2013
  21. 21. 2007-11-01, 23,745,000 2013-08-01, 26,846,000 20M 22M 24M 26M 28M 30M 2005-01-01 2005-03-01 2005-05-01 2005-07-01 2005-09-01 2005-11-01 2006-01-01 2006-03-01 2006-05-01 2006-07-01 2006-09-01 2006-11-01 2007-01-01 2007-03-01 2007-05-01 2007-07-01 2007-09-01 2007-11-01 2008-01-01 2008-03-01 2008-05-01 2008-07-01 2008-09-01 2008-11-01 2009-01-01 2009-03-01 2009-05-01 2009-07-01 2009-09-01 2009-11-01 2010-01-01 2010-03-01 2010-05-01 2010-07-01 2010-09-01 2010-11-01 2011-01-01 2011-03-01 2011-05-01 2011-07-01 2011-09-01 2011-11-01 2012-01-01 2012-03-01 2012-05-01 2012-07-01 2012-09-01 2012-11-01 2013-01-01 2013-03-01 2013-05-01 2013-07-01 Civilian Labor - Part Time - January 2005 to August 2013 2007-11-01, 122,850,000 2013-08-01, 117,324,000 110M 2005-01-01 2005-03-01 2005-05-01 2005-07-01 2005-09-01 2005-11-01 2006-01-01 2006-03-01 2006-05-01 2006-07-01 2006-09-01 2006-11-01 2007-01-01 2007-03-01 2007-05-01 2007-07-01 2007-09-01 2007-11-01 2008-01-01 2008-03-01 2008-05-01 2008-07-01 2008-09-01 2008-11-01 2009-01-01 2009-03-01 2009-05-01 2009-07-01 2009-09-01 2009-11-01 2010-01-01 2010-03-01 2010-05-01 2010-07-01 2010-09-01 2010-11-01 2011-01-01 2011-03-01 2011-05-01 2011-07-01 2011-09-01 2011-11-01 2012-01-01 2012-03-01 2012-05-01 2012-07-01 2012-09-01 2012-11-01 2013-01-01 2013-03-01 2013-05-01 2013-07-01 Civilian Labor - Full Time - January 2005 to August 2013
  22. 22. Unemployment Claims DOWN!
  23. 23. Hiring Resumed (Sort Of)
  24. 24. Hiring Resumed (Sort Of)
  25. 25. The Biggest Shift of All!
  26. 26. Discouragement Still a BIG Issue!
  27. 27. Earnings are Improving
  28. 28. Saez, Emmanuel. Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2012 preliminary estimates). http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf (September 3, 2013) It’s Been a TOUGH Recession!
  29. 29. Gasoline Prices in Perspective
  30. 30. What It Means for Government
  31. 31. Federal Debt Keeps Growing!
  32. 32. How’s the “Fed” Helping?
  33. 33. Revenues, 11.2% Revenues, 2.3% Expenditures, 3.1% Expenditures, - 0.1% Debt Outstanding, 0.0% Debt Outstanding, 3.4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% State Local 1-Yr Change in State & Local Government Revenues & Exependitures, FY 2011 State & Local Condition Better
  34. 34. Local Pensions are Underfunded 100% 93% 90% 88% 87% 86% 88% 84% 80% 78% 74% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Aggregate Actuarial Funding Ratio of Select State & Local Defined-Contribution Plans, FY 2001 to FY 2011
  35. 35. Local Pensions are Underfunded 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% FY 2010 Actuarial Funding Ratios, US State & Local Defined Benefit Plans Group Funding Aggregate, 77.8% Source: Center for Retirement Research, Boston College
  36. 36. Looking forward?
  37. 37. Outlook US GDP Growth 2.3% annualized rate for 3rd Quarter 1.9% growth for 2013 (down from earlier 2.4%) 3.0% growth in 2014 Probability of Fed’s “Taper” ~45% during rest of 2013 ~80% in 2014
  38. 38. Thank You! Kenneth Hunter Kenneth.Hunter@nclgba.org www.ABFM.org

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