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Forecasting Presentation - Town of Cary

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Financial forecasting presentation, presented by Town of Cary Budget Director Scott Fogleman during Winter 2012 NCLGBA Conference

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Forecasting Presentation - Town of Cary

  1. 1. Forecasting in Cary R T H C A N O R O , L Y I R N A A C 1871 TOWN Of CARY
  2. 2. Forecasting in Cary1) Quick tour of Cary2) Summary of our growth patterns3) General Fund Forecast4) Utility Fund Forecast 2 TOWN Of CARY
  3. 3. First Thought When You Hear Town of Cary?3 TOWN Of CARY
  4. 4. Cary?• Containment Area for Relocated Yankees• Known for beige colors and lack of signs• Fast Growing• Town? That’s a City!• We now have chickens! 4 TOWN Of CARY
  5. 5. Cary, North Carolina TOWN Of CARY
  6. 6. RDU RTP Our Town MorrisvilleWestern Wake Expressway Raleigh Apex Holly Springs TOWN Of CARY
  7. 7. Cary 1900 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 TOWN Of CARY
  8. 8. Cary 1949 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 TOWN Of CARY
  9. 9. Cary 1960 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 TOWN Of CARY
  10. 10. Cary 1970 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 TOWN Of CARY
  11. 11. Cary 1980 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 TOWN Of CARY
  12. 12. Cary 1990 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 TOWN Of CARY
  13. 13. Cary 1995 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 TOWN Of CARY
  14. 14. Cary 2000 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 TOWN Of CARY
  15. 15. Cary 2005 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 TOWN Of CARY
  16. 16. Cary 2010 TownLimits: 1900- 2010 10/15/2010 TOWN Of CARY
  17. 17. Town of Cary Decennial Census Average Increase Per Year Population Increase % Increase Year 1940 1,141 1950 1,496 355 31% 3.1% 1960 3,356 1,860 124% 12.4% 1970 7,640 4,284 128% 12.8% 1980 21,763 14,123 185% 18.5% 1990 43,858 22,095 102% 10.2% 2000 94,536 50,678 116% 11.6%2010 Est. 141,271 46,735 49% 4.9% TOWN Of CARY
  18. 18. _____________________________________________________________________________________ TOWN Of CARY ___________________________________________________________________ TOWN Of CARY
  19. 19. Town of Cary Decennial Census Results Average Increase Per Year in TheYear Population Increase % Increase Prior Decade1940 1,1411950 1,496 355 31% 3.1%1960 3,356 1,860 124% 12.4%1970 7,640 4,284 128% 12.8%1980 21,763 14,123 185% 18.5%1990 43,858 22,095 102% 10.2%2000 94,536 50,678 116% 11.6%2010 135,234 40,698 43% 4.3%2012 142,257 2.6% TOWN Of CARY
  20. 20. Town of Cary Decennial Census Results Average Increase Per Year in TheYear Population Increase % Increase Prior Decade1940 1,1411950 1,496 355 31% 3.1%1960 3,356 1,860 124% 12.4%1970 7,640 4,284 128% 12.8%1980 21,763 14,123 185% 18.5%1990 43,858 22,095 102% 10.2%2000 94,536 50,678 116% 11.6%2010 135,234 40,698 43% 4.3%2012 142,257 2.6% TOWN Of CARY
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  35. 35. Adopted Capital Appropriation Summary General Capital Adopted CIB 90 Genl Govt 80 Parks 70 Fire 60 Transportation Dollars in Millions 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 1996 2003 2010 Fiscal Year _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2012 BudgetWorksession #1Capital Docs[Capital Summaries.xls]NEW Rev Est UTIL CAP Report TOWN Of CARY
  36. 36. Adopted Capital Appropriation Summary General Capital Adopted CIB 90 Genl Govt 80 Parks 70 Fire 60 Transportation Dollars in Millions 50 FY1990 to FY1998 40 total of $54M or avg. of $6M per 30 year 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 1996 2003 2010 Fiscal Year _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2012 BudgetWorksession #1Capital Docs[Capital Summaries.xls]NEW Rev Est UTIL CAP Report TOWN Of CARY
  37. 37. Adopted Capital Appropriation Summary General Capital Adopted CIB 90 Genl Govt FY1999 to FY2009 80 total of $482M or Parks avg. of $44M per 70 year Fire 60 Transportation Dollars in Millions 50 FY1990 to FY1998 40 total of $54M or avg. of $6M per 30 year 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 1996 2003 2010 Fiscal Year _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2012 BudgetWorksession #1Capital Docs[Capital Summaries.xls]NEW Rev Est UTIL CAP Report TOWN Of CARY
  38. 38. General Capital Proportion of Debt Funding Funding Portion Breakdown for General Capital Adopted Budget Cash Debt 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2011 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2012 BudgetWorksession #1Capital Docs[Capital Summaries.xls]NEW Rev Est UTIL CAP Report
  39. 39. General Capital Projects and FundingGoal StatementUpdate Council and receive direction regarding general capitalprojects (transportation, fire, PRCR, general government,downtown) and available funding options for FY2013 andbeyond including usage of the 2003 street and park bondauthority.Steps1) Historical revenue and appropriation summary2) Today’s capital planning approach3) Time is right for another look to determine where we go next4) Options for Council consideration5) Feedback and direction from Council TOWN Of CARY
  40. 40. 2003 Bond Referendum Summary TOWN Of CARY
  41. 41. 2003 Bond Referendum SummaryApril 8, 2003 April 8, 2013 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved} TOWN Of CARY
  42. 42. 2003 Bond Referendum SummaryApril 8, 2003 April 8, 2013 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved} TOWN Of CARY
  43. 43. 2003 Bond Referendum SummaryApril 8, 2003 April 8, 2013 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved} Town of Cary Transportation 2003 GO $130M Referendum Status Summary $130,000,000 $120,000,000 $110,000,000 $100,000,000 In Whole Dollars $90,000,000 Remainder = $53.1M $80,000,000 $70,000,000 $60,000,000 Total Appropriated = $76.9M $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $0 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2013 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2012 FY 2011 Fiscal Year TOWN Of CARY
  44. 44. 2003 Bond Referendum SummaryApril 8, 2003 April 8, 2013 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved} Town of Cary Transportation 2003 GO $130M Referendum Status Summary $130,000,000 $120,000,000 $110,000,000 $100,000,000 In Whole Dollars $90,000,000 Remainder = $53.1M $80,000,000 $70,000,000 $60,000,000 Total Appropriated = $76.9M $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 Streetscapes = $34.3M of Total $10,000,000 $0 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2013 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2012 FY 2011 Fiscal Year TOWN Of CARY
  45. 45. 2003 Bond Referendum SummaryApril 8, 2003 April 8, 2013 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved} Town of Cary PRCR 2003 GO $30M Referendum Status Summary $30,000,000 $25,000,000 Remainder = $7.6M In Whole Dollars $20,000,000 Total Appropriated = $22.4M $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0 FY 2003 FY 2005 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2010 FY 2012 FY 2004 FY 2006 FY 2009 FY 2013 FY 2011 Fiscal Year TOWN Of CARY
  46. 46. 2003 Bond Referendum SummaryApril 8, 2003 April 8, 2013 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved} Town of Cary PRCR 2003 GO $30M Referendum Status Summary $30,000,000 $25,000,000 Remainder = $7.6M In Whole Dollars $20,000,000 Total Appropriated = $22.4M $15,000,000 $10,000,000 Aquatics = $13.5M of Total $5,000,000 $0 FY 2003 FY 2005 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2010 FY 2012 FY 2004 FY 2006 FY 2009 FY 2013 FY 2011 Fiscal Year TOWN Of CARY
  47. 47. How Much Might New Debt Service Cost ? R:addrvBUDOFFCERetreat2012[MMD History.xls]10-Year MMD TOWN Of CARY
  48. 48. How Much Might New Debt Service Cost ? 10-Year Municipal Market Data (MMD) Benchmark Tax-Exempt Interest Rate Since January 19917%6%5%4%3%2%1%0% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 1991 1997 2000 2002 2007 2011 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ R:addrvBUDOFFCERetreat2012[MMD History.xls]10-Year MMD TOWN Of CARY
  49. 49. Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates TOWN Of CARY R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  50. 50. Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing at Various Interest Rates $2.5 Annual Debt Service Payment $M (Includes Principal and Interest) $2.0 $1.5 1.6 3% Total = $26.3M $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 2013 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2031 TOWN Of CARY R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  51. 51. Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing at Various Interest Rates $2.5 Annual Debt Service Payment $M (Includes Principal and Interest) $2.0 $1.5 1.6 1.4 3% Total = $26.3M $1.0 2% Total = $24.2M $0.5 $0.0 2013 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2031 TOWN Of CARY R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  52. 52. Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing at Various Interest Rates $2.5 Annual Debt Service Payment $M (Includes Principal and Interest) $2.0 $1.5 1.6 1.4 3% Total = $26.3M 1.2 $1.0 2% Total = $24.2M $0.5 1% Total = $22.1M $0.0 2013 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2031 TOWN Of CARY R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  53. 53. Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing at Various Interest Rates $2.5 Annual Debt Service Payment $M (Includes Principal and Interest) $2.0 1.8 4% Total = $28.4M $1.5 1.6 1.4 3% Total = $26.3M 1.2 $1.0 2% Total = $24.2M $0.5 1% Total = $22.1M $0.0 2013 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2031 TOWN Of CARY R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  54. 54. Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing at Various Interest Rates $2.5 Annual Debt Service Payment $M (Includes Principal and Interest) $2.0 5% Total = $30.5M 2.0 1.8 4% Total = $28.4M $1.5 1.6 1.4 3% Total = $26.3M 1.2 $1.0 2% Total = $24.2M $0.5 1% Total = $22.1M $0.0 2013 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2031 TOWN Of CARY R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  55. 55. Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing at Various Interest Rates $2.5 Annual Debt Service Payment $M (Includes Principal and Interest) $2.0 5% Total = $30.5M 2.0 1.8 4% Total = $28.4M $1.5 1.6 1.4 3% Total = $26.3M 1.2 $1.0 Effectively, for each 1% increment in the interest 2% Total = $24.2M rate, the first year of debt service is $100K more expensive for each $10M borrowed, so for the $20M $0.5 ($10M x 2) in this example, the difference between 1% Total = $22.1M each increment is $200K ($100K x 2). If $100M ($10M x 10) were borrowed, the increment in the 1st year of debt service would be $1M ($100K x 10). $0.0 2013 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2031 TOWN Of CARY R:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  56. 56. General Fund Forecast Key Variables• Tax Base• Sales tax• Investment Earnings• Other revenues• Baseline expenditure growth rate• Operating Impacts of Capital• Debt service % (ceiling of 15%)• Maintain Fund balance (6 months)• Operating margin in cents on tax rate TOWN Of CARY
  57. 57. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
  58. 58. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt Service % Scenarios 21% 20% 19% 18% Annual Debt Service Percentage 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Already Issued As of FY12 1% 0% FY 2000 FY 2002 FY 2004 FY 2006 FY 2008 FY 2010 FY 2012 FY 2014 FY 2016 FY 2018 FY 2020 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
  59. 59. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt Service % Scenarios 21% 20% 19% 18% Annual Debt Service Percentage 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% Already Issued As of FY12 5% + DS to Hold at 12% 4% 3% 2% Already Issued As of FY12 1% 0% FY 2000 FY 2002 FY 2004 FY 2006 FY 2008 FY 2010 FY 2012 FY 2014 FY 2016 FY 2018 FY 2020 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
  60. 60. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt Service % Scenarios 21% 20% 19% 18% Annual Debt Service Percentage 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% Already Issued As of FY12 10% + DS to 15% Gradually 9% 8% 7% 6% Already Issued As of FY12 5% + DS to Hold at 12% 4% 3% 2% Already Issued As of FY12 1% 0% FY 2000 FY 2002 FY 2004 FY 2006 FY 2008 FY 2010 FY 2012 FY 2014 FY 2016 FY 2018 FY 2020 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
  61. 61. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt Service % Scenarios 21% 20% 19% 18% Annual Debt Service Percentage 17% 16% 15% Already Issued As of FY12 14% + DS to 15% Right Away 13% 12% 11% Already Issued As of FY12 10% + DS to 15% Gradually 9% 8% 7% 6% Already Issued As of FY12 5% + DS to Hold at 12% 4% 3% 2% Already Issued As of FY12 1% 0% FY 2000 FY 2002 FY 2004 FY 2006 FY 2008 FY 2010 FY 2012 FY 2014 FY 2016 FY 2018 FY 2020 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
  62. 62. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt Service % Scenarios 21% 20% 19% Already Issued As of FY12 18% + DS to 20% Gradually Annual Debt Service Percentage 17% 16% 15% Already Issued As of FY12 14% + DS to 15% Right Away 13% 12% 11% Already Issued As of FY12 10% + DS to 15% Gradually 9% 8% 7% 6% Already Issued As of FY12 5% + DS to Hold at 12% 4% 3% 2% Already Issued As of FY12 1% 0% FY 2000 FY 2002 FY 2004 FY 2006 FY 2008 FY 2010 FY 2012 FY 2014 FY 2016 FY 2018 FY 2020 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
  63. 63. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios 300 250 Debt Balance in Millions 200 150 100 50 61 Existing Debt Balance - FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  64. 64. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios 300 250 Debt Balance in Millions 200 150 100 89 New Capacity if DS to Hold at 12% 50 61 Existing Debt Balance - FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  65. 65. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios 300 250 Debt Balance in Millions 200 150 150 New Capacity if DS to 15% Gradually 100 89 New Capacity if DS to Hold at 12% 50 61 Existing Debt Balance - FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  66. 66. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios 300 250 Debt Balance in Millions New Capacity If DS 200 to 15% Right Away 150 150 New Capacity if DS to 15% Gradually 100 89 New Capacity if DS to Hold at 12% 50 61 Existing Debt Balance - FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  67. 67. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios 300 274 New Capacity if DS to 20% Gradually 250 Debt Balance in Millions New Capacity If DS 200 to 15% Right Away 150 150 New Capacity if DS to 15% Gradually 100 89 New Capacity if DS to Hold at 12% 50 61 Existing Debt Balance - FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydow n Sensitivity
  68. 68. Value of One Cent on the Tax Rate Used to Define Operating Margin Actual Value Through FY2012 Projections Through 2020 Annual Revenue of 1 Cent on the $3.0 $2.5 Tax Rate ($ Millions) $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 TOWN Of CARYR:addrvBUDOFFCEFY 2013 BudgetA-Models[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]General Fund Summary
  69. 69. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents 18Tax Equivalent of Additional Margin Needed 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Baseline Forecast Including No 2 New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020 0 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2011 TOWN Of CARY
  70. 70. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents 18Tax Equivalent of Additional Margin Needed 16 14 12 10 8 6 To CoverAlready Issued As of FY12 + DS to Hold at 12% @ 3.7 more cents by 2020 4 Baseline Forecast Including No 2 New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020 0 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2011 TOWN Of CARY
  71. 71. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents 18Tax Equivalent of Additional Margin Needed 16 14 12 10 To CoverAlready Issued As of FY12 + DS to 15% Gradually @ 6.2 more cents by 2020 8 6 To CoverAlready Issued As of FY12 + DS to Hold at 12% @ 3.7 more cents by 2020 4 Baseline Forecast Including No 2 New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020 0 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2011 TOWN Of CARY
  72. 72. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents 18Tax Equivalent of Additional Margin Needed 16 14 To CoverAlready Issued As of FY12 + DS to 15% Right Away @ 12 7 cents more by 2020 10 To CoverAlready Issued As of FY12 + DS to 15% Gradually @ 8 6.2 more cents by 2020 6 To CoverAlready Issued As of FY12 + DS to Hold at 12% @ 3.7 more cents by 2020 4 Baseline Forecast Including No 2 New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020 0 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2011 TOWN Of CARY
  73. 73. Various Debt Capacity Scenarios Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents 18Tax Equivalent of Additional Margin Needed To CoverAlready Issued As of 16 FY12 + DS to 20% Gradually @ 10.8 more cents by 2020 14 To CoverAlready Issued As of FY12 + DS to 15% Right Away @ 12 7 cents more by 2020 10 To CoverAlready Issued As of FY12 + DS to 15% Gradually @ 8 6.2 more cents by 2020 6 To CoverAlready Issued As of FY12 + DS to Hold at 12% @ 3.7 more cents by 2020 4 Baseline Forecast Including No 2 New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020 0 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2011 TOWN Of CARY
  74. 74. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80M TOWN Of CARY
  75. 75. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80M TOWN Of CARY
  76. 76. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80M TOWN Of CARY
  77. 77. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80M TOWN Of CARY
  78. 78. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80MFire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M TOWN Of CARY
  79. 79. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80M2 Cents Tax Increase in FY2014Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M TOWN Of CARY
  80. 80. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80M2 Cents Tax Increase in FY20142 Cents More in FY2016Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M TOWN Of CARY
  81. 81. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80MAll three approved by votersNovember 6, 2012Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M TOWN Of CARY
  82. 82. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80MAll three approved by votersNovember 6, 2012Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7MVote 80/20 TOWN Of CARY
  83. 83. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80MAll three approved by votersNovember 6, 2012Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7MVote 80/20 Vote 69/31 TOWN Of CARY
  84. 84. 2012 Bond Referendum Total $80MAll three approved by votersNovember 6, 2012Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7MVote 80/20 Vote 69/31 Vote 70/30 TOWN Of CARY

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