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Revenue & Expenditure Forecasting - Winter 2014 NCLGBA Conference

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Revenue & Expenditure Forecasting - Winter 2014 NCLGBA Conference, presented December 11, 2014

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Revenue & Expenditure Forecasting - Winter 2014 NCLGBA Conference

  1. 1. Revenue and Expenditures Forecasting and Tracking 101 Kenneth Hunter, MPA 2014 Winter NCLGBA Conference
  2. 2. Politics of Forecasting • Who initiates? • What is their objective? • How does this bias results? • What’s the solution? – Where’s budget v. finance?
  3. 3. Hunter’s Fundamentals of Forecasting • Forecasting is an ESTIMATE! • Data & evidence matter • Multiple perspectives are key • Present analysis, never sell it
  4. 4. Building a Forecast • Acquire dataset • Identify known variables • Tie past to present, then to future • Build a range • Update/revise regularly • Remain honest
  5. 5. High End Low End Applied
  6. 6. Evaluation • You know much less than you think • Building compromised consensus • Validity matters • Respond to ACTUAL changes
  7. 7. Applied Examples • Expenditures (end of year) • Payroll (next year w/adjustment) • Revenue (end of year, forward to future years)

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