David Soskin Internet World


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David Soskin Internet World

  1. 1. David Soskin CEO Cheapflights.co.uk 1 st May 2007 Understanding the long tail - why small customers are vital to web success
  2. 2. Agenda: <ul><li>What is the long tail? </li></ul><ul><li>Why vertical and “Web 2.0” search extend the long tail </li></ul><ul><li>Outlook for “long tail” – orientated companies </li></ul>
  3. 3. Acknowledgement to Chris Anderson
  4. 4. The new growth market: Products you can’t find anywhere but online Source: Chris Anderson Typical Blockbuster: 3,000 DVDs Typical Borders Bookstore: 100,000 books
  5. 5. Britannica vs. Wikipedia 7,000,000 64,900 * Source: www.amazon.com & en.wikipedia.org January 15, 2001 1768 Established: Number of articles*
  6. 6. Aggregators Transactional Digital goods Advertising services Communities/ user generated content Information
  7. 7. The long tail: The root calculus <ul><li>“ the lower the costs of selling, the more you can sell. As such, aggregators are a manifestation of the second force, democratizing distribution. They all lower the barrier to market entry, allowing more and more things to cross that bar and get out there to find their audience.” </li></ul><ul><li>Chris Anderson </li></ul>Source: The Long Tail
  8. 8. Crap vs. choice <ul><li>Old economy: crap matters </li></ul><ul><li>New economy: choice matters </li></ul>
  9. 9. Book Sales (USA), 2004 Source: Book Industry Study Group 1,242,185 1,240,998 767 324 64 22 10 Titles 17 1,000,000 or more 665 Million+ Total 513 0 to 49,999 52 50,000 to 99,999 47 100,000 to 249,999 22 250,000 to 499,999 14 500,000 to 999,999 Units (Million) Sales Range
  10. 10. Google: Ultimate long tail company? <ul><li>“ By going to the bottom with self-service, we were able to reach advertisers who fell below the threshold of traditional advertising. And by going all the way to the top, we were able to capture very large and historically underserved businesses as well as a whole new area that never had access to these kinds of online services.” </li></ul>Eric Schmidt, CEO Google Source: The Long Tail
  11. 11. But how good is Google search? <ul><li>“ The ultimate search engine would basically understand everything in the world, and it would always give you the right thing. And we're a long, long ways from that. ” </li></ul><ul><li>- Larry Page, Google Co-Founder </li></ul><ul><li>“ Search as a problem is only about 5% solved ” </li></ul><ul><li>- Udi Manber, CEO of Amazon’s A9.com search engine </li></ul><ul><li>“ It's clear there's a lot of room for improvement, there's no inherent ceiling we're hitting up on. ” </li></ul><ul><li>- Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder </li></ul>
  12. 12. Search can get a lot better… Vertical Search Horizontal Search
  13. 13. Cheapflights Before …
  14. 14. Not much use for Borat …
  15. 15. UK Cheapflights users seeking deals to Kazakhstan April 2006 – March 2007 7,117 clicks
  16. 16. What appeals to Borat?
  17. 17. End Result: Borat is a happy user
  18. 18. Long tail of advertisers Cheapflights Traditional Media
  19. 19. Long tail of advertisers Cheapflights Traditional Media
  20. 20. The Cheapflights long tail … <ul><li>Founded 1967 </li></ul><ul><li>Employees100 </li></ul><ul><li>Specialize in Greece & Cyprus </li></ul>
  21. 21. The Cheapflights long tail … <ul><li>Founded 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Employees18 </li></ul><ul><li>Specialize in Florida; flights, </li></ul><ul><li>holidays & cruise </li></ul>
  22. 22. The Cheapflights long tail … <ul><li>Founded 1966 </li></ul><ul><li>Employees 39 </li></ul><ul><li>Specialize in Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, Slovenia, Serbia and Romania </li></ul>
  23. 23. The Cheapflights long tail
  24. 24. Dohop: A global flight planner
  25. 25. Travel is a natural subject for the long tail – highly fragmented “ Everywhere” Mainly short haul Destinations Scheduled Many charters, specialists Low Cost Online travel agencies State owned/ monopolistic airlines Some charters, specialist Travel Companies Everybody Mainly the very rich Travellers Now Then
  26. 26. Long tail and Web 2.0 Search User Reviews Social Networking
  27. 27. User reviews Then Now <ul><li>Everyone </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Michelin </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rough Guide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hardens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Frommers </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Frommers vs. WAYN <ul><li>HB slide </li></ul>
  29. 29. Trusted Places: example a restaurant in London
  30. 30. The long tail: Social networking <ul><li>Then </li></ul><ul><li>club </li></ul><ul><li>local pub </li></ul><ul><li>street </li></ul><ul><li>school </li></ul><ul><li>charity </li></ul><ul><li>hobby </li></ul><ul><li>sport </li></ul><ul><li>Now </li></ul><ul><li>World </li></ul>Your -
  31. 31. Time spent online <ul><ul><li>More and more people are using the internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>People now spend an extra 1 hour 16 minutes each month online compared with 2001 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>16-24 year olds spend even more time online: 11 hours 20 minutes per month on the internet </li></ul></ul>Source: Ofcom research, April 2006 Hours Year
  32. 32. How to create a thriving long tail business <ul><li>“ 1) Make everything available. </li></ul><ul><li>2) Help me find it.” </li></ul><ul><li>Chris Anderson </li></ul>Source: The Long Tail
  33. 33. Long tail of the internet Web 2.0 Reviews Social networking Blogging Vertical search 2007 2002
  34. 34. Conclusion: <ul><li>“ Long tail” is suited to the internet </li></ul><ul><li>Vertical search is an ideal “long tail” application </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 has accelerated the “long tail” </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding and using the “long tail” represents a significant and growing business opportunity </li></ul>
  35. 35. Thank you Questions, suggestions, feedback or complaints welcome… [email_address]