App Stores - Analytics and Trends

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App Stores - Analytics and Trends

  1. 1. NMDS, November 7th, 2013 APP STORES - ANALYTICS AND TRENDS @anders_lykke / @prioridata WWW.PRIORIDATA.COM
  2. 2. AGENDA ABOUT APP STORE ANALYTICS   Who am I?   Who is Priori Data?   What is App Store Analytics?   App Economy – Size, Growth and Characteristics   The Challenge   App Architecture – breaking the app store down to relevant markets   Case-Study: Sudoku Games   Invitation to participate in BETA APPENDIX   Fastest Growing Consumer Trends in the App Stores   Globally   For Sweden   Size of the Scandinavian App Markets 2  
  3. 3. WHO AM I? Anders, Sales and a lot of other stuff…
  4. 4. 4  
  5. 5. APPS MAKE MY LIFE EASIER 6  
  6. 6. 7  
  7. 7.   Consumers download apps to solve problems and/or to enrich their lives   We are monitoring consumer trends in the app economy 8  
  8. 8. WHAT IS PRIORI DATA?
  9. 9. ABOUT PRIORI   Priori is a Berlin based app store analytics provider   Formally launched in June 2013 by acquiring the rights to a historical database and on-going data feed   Access to ~80% of all global apps, as well as 2.5 years of historical data   We leverage this data in two ways:   We publish a series of Market Intelligence Reports (pdf – most are free)   Do consulting work on Custom Data Projects 10  
  10. 10. SOME BIG PLAYERS IN THE INUSTRY
  11. 11. WHAT IS APP STORE ANALYTICS?
  12. 12. OUR PROCESS We retrieve and store publicly available Collection Structuring & Processing information We estimate download and revenue for every app (regression model + data Enrichment Delivery exchange with developers) We convert this data into information and insights on consumer trends 13  
  13. 13. OUR DATABASE Maintaining app information for: 2,000,000+ apps every app, every price change, every version 30 countries local content, local monetization, local leaders MEASURING 100,000 new apps per month 6bn downloads per month 15mm user comments per month 250,000 publishers from hobby developers to public companies 3 platforms Google Play, iOS (iPhone, iPad), Windows Phone MONITORING 50 categories 550 app sub-categories 120 game sub-categories 14  
  14. 14. APP ECONOMY SIZE AND GROWTH
  15. 15. PUBLISHER LEVEL INFORMATION (as of Oct. 8th) The App Store:   258.081 publishers (about 7k new each month)   3.8 apps per publisher on avg.   7.171 downloads/month per publisher on avg. Google Play:   269.803 publishers (about 11k new each month)   3.7 apps per publisher on avg.   13.574 downloads/month per publisher on avg. 16  
  16. 16. NUMBER OF APPS AND MONETIZATION   Ca. 1 million apps (on both GP and iOS)   iOS: 600k free / 400k paid ($332.5m revenue/month)   Android: 800k free / 200k paid ($32m revenue/month)   In-app purchase is a growing trend on both platforms:   On iOS 11% of apps have in-app purchase (IAP present in 60% of downloaded apps in September)   On GP: 5.2% of apps have in-app purchase (IAP present in 28% of downloaded apps in September)   …4bn vs 2bn downloads per month 17  
  17. 17. $80 BN APP STORE REVENUE BY 2017 80   70   60   50   40   $bn  total  rev.   30   $bn  rev  IAP   20   10   0   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   Source:  Gartner,  2013  
  18. 18. KEY OBSERVATIONS ON THE APP ECONOMY   It is young   It is growing at unprecedented speed   2 very dominant distribution platforms (Gartner says 90% of downloads this year)   Difficult to obtain information on the market   Everybody wants in 19  
  19. 19. THE CHALLENGE
  20. 20.   There is an app for everything but only around 40 native app store categories for developers to place their app in and for consumers to browse   Each native app store category is crowded with highly differentiated apps   We think there is a real opportunity to make smarter decisions if you can identify the actual market of an individual app. 21  
  21. 21. APP ARCHITECTURE & SUB-CATEGORIES
  22. 22. WHAT IT IS   AppArchitecture is Priori’s proprietary app taxonomy, or classification system   We mine app titles and descriptions to identify “clusters” of apps using natural language processing algorithms   This process is done dynamically each month across our database, and supplemented by manual review   The end result: a “sub-category” designation for ~90% of the apps in our database 23  
  23. 23. 35-40 750 Categories Sub-Categories   Thus a Sudoku Game is no longer just an app belonging to the the Puzzle Games Category (iOS). It can now be analyzed against all other apps in the ”Sudoku & Crosswords” Sub-Category . Full  list  of  Sub-­‐Categories:   www.prioridata.com/technology/apparchitecture/     24  
  24. 24. FALL 2013 – Article by Priori
  25. 25. A Tool: Sub-Category Tracker
  26. 26. Priori Sub-Category Tracker Sudoku  &  Crossword  Puzzle  Sub-­‐Category Apple iTunes Store / August 2013 (Data Collection 09  Aug. – 09 Sep. 2013) 27  
  27. 27.   Sudoku & Crossword Puzzle apps are logic-based puzzle games, largely belonging to the iTunes store native category “Puzzle Games”.   Sudoku & Crossword Puzzle is the 56th largest Priori sub-category in terms of global August 2013 downloads, the 151th largest in terms of apps, 73rd in terms of active users and 178th in terms of publishers. It is comprised of: 1,676  apps   964  publishers   7.8M  monthly  downloads   39M  acNve  users   28  
  28. 28.   We want to know more about the performance, opportunities, and competitive landscape in this sub-category. For instance:   Trend: How has this sub-category performed in the near-term?   Size: How big is it across geographies?   Growth: How fast is it growing across geographies?   Structure: What does the market structure look like across geographies?   Top 3: Who are the top players in each geography? 29  
  29. 29. MONTH OVER MONTH GROWTH COMPARISON: Sudoku & Crosswords VS Puzzle Games VS iOS
  30. 30. Trend Size Growth   Structure Top 3 GLOBAL MONTH-OVER-MONTH GROWTH COMPARISON 50% 46.6% 25.9% 25% 12.1% 3.3% 0% 6.0% 7.8% 0.1% -25.4% -25% -25.5% June July Global Performance August 31  
  31. 31. SHARE OF DOWNLOADS BY COUNTRY Is the Market large enough to Enter?
  32. 32. Trend Size Growth   Structure Top 3 Share of Downloads by Country Current Month Downloads in Country / Global Current Month Downloads Size and Growth By Country 33  
  33. 33. Trend Size Growth   Structure Top 3 Share of Sub-Category by Country Current Month Downloads in Country / Global Current Month Downloads Size and Growth By Country 34  
  34. 34. MONTH OVER MONTH GROWTH BY COUNTRY - Are the Market Dynamics in my Favor?
  35. 35. Trend Size Growth   Structure Top 3 Growth by Country (Current Month Downloads – Prior Month Downloads) / Prior Month Downloads Size and Growth By Country 36  
  36. 36. Trend Size Growth   Structure Top 3 Growth by Country (Current Month Downloads – Prior Month Downloads) / Prior Month Downloads Size and Growth By Country 37  
  37. 37. DOWNLOAD DISTRUBUTION – TIERS 1-3 How many Installs can I expect?
  38. 38. Trend Size Growth   Structure Top 3 Download Distribution Market Structure By Country 39  
  39. 39. Trend Size Growth   Structure Top 3 Download Distribution Market Structure By Country 40  
  40. 40. Trend Size Growth   Structure Top 3 Download Distribution Tier Apps #1 - #3 Apps #4 - #10 Apps #11 - #25 % of Downloads Switzerland United Arab Emirates Avg. Downloads Per App 116,326 5,900 1,628 91% 6% 2% Avg. Downloads Per App 64,539 2,243 297 79% 11% 7% Avg. Downloads Per App 83,237 5,616 1,580 56% 22% 17% Avg. Downloads Per App 13,030 2,544 783 % of Downloads Sweden 6% % of Downloads Spain 8% % of Downloads South Korea 81% % of Downloads Russia 52% 25% 19% Avg. Downloads Per App 14,139 3,417 1,039 % of Downloads 60% 22% 15% 824 221 Avg. Downloads Market Structure By Country 4,580 Per App 41  
  41. 41. TOP 3 PLAYERS BY COUNTRY
  42. 42. Trend Size Growth   Structure Top 3 TOP APPS Rank Finger Arts Big Bad Sudoku Book Bad Weasel, LLC 101 미니게임즈 베스트 컬렉션 Nordcurrent 2 로직 스퀘어(Logic Square) Dev Square ▻Sudoku Finger Arts 101-in-1 Games Anthology Nordcurrent 2 ▻Sudoku Finger Arts 3 Numberama 2 Okroshka Lab 1 2 3 ▻Sudoku 101-in-1 Games Anthology Sudoku :) Finger Arts Nordcurrent TicBits Ltd 1 ▻Sudoku Finger Arts 2 101-in-1 Games Anthology Nordcurrent 3 Sudoku :) TicBits Ltd 1 United Arab Emirates ▻Sudoku 1 Switzerland 2 3 Sweden Nordcurrent 1 Spain 101-in-1 Games Anthology 3 South Korea Publisher 1 Russia Title ▻Sudoku Finger Arts 2 Cross Match Sticks S.H. InfoTech 3 Sudoku Free Optime Software LLC Top 3 By Country 43  
  43. 43. FINAL THOUGHTS   Managing the success of an app is no easy task and this is no definitive source   Defining your market based on the nature of your product (your app) and understanding consumer trends around it could be key   Who do you benchmark against?   Investors want to know about the market you are targeting   Are there any emerging consumer trends you should tap into? (please see Appendix for suggestions) 44  
  44. 44. BETA INTEREST LIST SIGN-UP   Interested in participating in the BETA around the SubCategories? (expected launch around 1st of December 2013).   Please use this link to sign up: https://docs.google.com/a/prioridata.com/forms/d/1xCBG8Hfz2ijax4hnwGlblxD-6Nc5XfZmO-BIRAVros/ viewform ”This  is  an  awesome  tool  for  developers  to  decide  on  which  market  to  target  their  promo7ons  to  and   also  to  maybe  iden7fy  markets  for  which  they  should  be  localizing  their  apps.”  –  Gurinder,  Hashcube   . 45  
  45. 45. Thank you! PRIORI DATA GMBH Markgrafenstrasse 36 10117 Berlin, Germany PHONE: +1-650-614-1681 EMAIL: ANDERS@PRIORIDATA.COM / INFO@PRIORIDATA.COM WWW.PRIORIDATA.COM
  46. 46. Appendix: Fastest Growing (m/o/m) Consumer trends in the App Stores (Sub-Categories). Global + Sweden
  47. 47. iOS Top 10 Fast Growing Global – all Sub-Categories
  48. 48. iOS Top 10 Fast Growing Global – Gaming SubCategories
  49. 49. iOS Top 10 Fast Growing Sweden – All Note:  For  Sweden  we  discarded  any  Sub-­‐Categories  with  less  than  2k  in-­‐month   downloads  
  50. 50. iOS Top 10 Fast Growing Sweden – Gaming SubCategories Note:  For  Sweden  we  discarded  any  Sub-­‐Categories  with  less  than  2k  in-­‐month   downloads  
  51. 51. Android Top 10 Fast Growing Global – all SubCategories
  52. 52. Android Top 10 Fast Growing Global – Gaming SubCategories
  53. 53. Android Top 10 Fast Growing Sweden – All Note:  For  Sweden  we  discarded  any  Sub-­‐Categories  with  less  than  2k  in-­‐month   downloads  
  54. 54. Android Top 10 Fast Growing Sweden – Gaming Sub-Categories Note:  For  Sweden  we  discarded  any  Sub-­‐Categories  with  less  than  2k  in-­‐month   downloads  
  55. 55. In Month Downloads in Scandinavia (September) Country   Android   Growth   (m/o/m)   iOS   Growth   (m/o/m)   Sweden   21,262m   (0.6%)   -­‐10.8%   18.28m   (1.0%)   15.6%   Denmark   11,13m   (0.3%)   -­‐8.1%   13.63m   (0.7%)   13.3%   Norway   7,31m   (0.2%)   -­‐9.2%   10.62m   (0.6%)   26.8%   56  

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