Economic Outlook November 2009

396 views

Published on

Published in: Economy & Finance, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
396
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
62
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
8
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Economic Outlook November 2009

  1. 1. p r a c sy s . Economic Outlook November 2009 Update Michael Chappell Director p r a c sy s .
  2. 2. Michael Chappell 2  Economist of 24 years experience  Founder and Director of Pracsys Economics  Research program on urban economics p r a c sy s .
  3. 3. Pracsys 3  Offices in Perth, Sydney, Brisbane  Policy advisor to government  Investment advice to commercial resource, commercial, resource retail, infrastructure companies www.innovation4cities.com.au www.pracsys.com.au www p r a c sy s .
  4. 4. Outline 4  What just happened?  What will happen next?  The good news  The bad news  The Joondalup news  Megatrends for cities p r a c sy s .
  5. 5. 5 Part 1 – Economic Update Nov 09 p r a c sy s .
  6. 6. Ok, so what just happened? 6 p r a c sy s .
  7. 7. Private & Public Sector Activity 7 A straight swap? Saving Spe d g Spending p r a c sy s .
  8. 8. Big Government Debt 8 p r a c sy s .
  9. 9. World Industrial Production 9 p r a c sy s .
  10. 10. Commodities 10 p r a c sy s .
  11. 11. 11 Part 2 – WA: the Lucky State p r a c sy s .
  12. 12. Some good things….. 12 Export markets rebounding…. p r a c sy s .
  13. 13. WA Commodity Prices 13 Commodity prices yp rising… p r a c sy s .
  14. 14. Inflation 14 Inflation falling… g p r a c sy s .
  15. 15. Wages 15 Labour costs ok… …but look p r a c sy s .
  16. 16. and other good things…. 16  Resource exploration increasing  Non-residential construction booming (federal and g( state infrastructure spend) p r a c sy s .
  17. 17. Some bad things…. 17  Residential property market stalled (due more to finance shortage than land shortage - project LVRs)  Home mortgages stretched (it ain’t 2007 anymore)  Financial services flat  Retail flat (rents down, savings up, unemployment up, residual pessimism) id l i i )  Banks have written off $13 billion bad debts p r a c sy s .
  18. 18. The Joondalup News 18  Retail/consumer services economy  Historical growth fuelled by residential construction g y  Small export economy  Underdone for strategic infrastructure U d d f t t i i f t t  Little knowledge infrastructure (smart growth?)  Big daily exodus of workers p r a c sy s .
  19. 19. The Joondalup News 19  Designated a Primary Centre  Focal point for future infrastructure investment p  Look to Commonwealth funding  Heaps of basic infrastructure investment (20 year H fb i i f t t i t t history & amenity potential)  Accessible to major employment centres p r a c sy s .
  20. 20. Quick Summary 20  Recovery will be patchy  Economic exposure to Asia positive p p  Still too much private debt  Banks B k gun-shy h  Retail and residential construction to remain weak for two-three years  Joondalup must position for strategic infrastructure p p g growth – more export and knowledge industries p r a c sy s .
  21. 21. Newsflash!! 21  Economists are fully employed www.innovation4cities.com.au www.pracsys.com.au www pracsys com au p r a c sy s .
  22. 22. 22 PART 2 – City Megatrends p r a c sy s .
  23. 23. Megatrends – Abundance to Scarcity 23  Food  Water  Transport  Energy gy  Finance p r a c sy s .
  24. 24. Food 24  Access t protein will shape cities i f t A to t i ill h iti in future  Protein comes from beef, pork, chicken ,p ,  Most feed for livestock comes from fishmeal  Fishmeal is nearly gone! Food Conversion Ratio Critical for cities: Beef 12:1 secure local food production Pork 8:1 c ose population us g close to popu at o using renewable inputs Chicken 6:1 (aquaculture, grains..) Fish 1:1 p r a c sy s . World Food Organisation, 2007
  25. 25. Water 25  Most drinking water goes on lower order uses  Reuse, recycle, repurpose  Innovation in decentralised capture storage and capture, use of water will reshape cities Critical for cities: Diversification of water sources improved sources, reuse across all user types and zero liquids discharge from industrial estates p r a c sy s .
  26. 26. Energy 26  Fossil fuels for power generation in decline  Decentralised power generation from renewables is rising – but peak load capacity is weak  We need better portable storage (eg: nonobatteries vs NiMeHi) and fixed storage (vanadium flow batteries) Critical for cities: power storage innovation has lagged (car companies?) and new efficient technologies are needed p r a c sy s .
  27. 27. Transport 27  Urban sprawl has separated people from city amenities and jobs (particularly smart jobs)  Car use has grown based on cheap fuel  Public transit systems work best serving dense urban agglomerations Critical for cities: private transport based on renewable energy and public transport serving dense, diverse activity centres p r a c sy s .

×