PotashCorp - Credit Suisse Global Chemical and Agriculture Conference - Sep 18, 2013


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PotashCorp - Credit Suisse Global Chemical and Agriculture Conference - Sep 18, 2013

  1. 1. PotashCorp.com Credit Suisse Conference September 2013 Wayne Brownlee Executive Vice-President & CFO
  2. 2. This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward- looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Forward-looking Statements Slide#2
  3. 3. PotashCorp Overview Slide#3 World’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity; #1 in potash, #3 in nitrogen and phosphate. Global leader in potash; nutrient with highest margins and significant barriers to entry. Canadian potash operations and strategic investments position us to benefit from growth markets. Focused world-class nitrogen and phosphate businesses help provide earnings stability.
  4. 4. • Strong cash flow • Cash flow from operating activities of $3.2B in 2012 • Record six-month cash flow from operating activities in first-half 2013 ($1.9B) • Well positioned potash business • Low-cost supplier to key markets • Potential to significantly grow sales volume and reduce per-tonne operating costs • 88 percent complete CDN $8.3B potash expansion program (~CDN $1B remaining) • Significantly lower per-tonne expansion cost relative to many competitor projects • Strong balance sheet affords good flexibility • Low leverage relative to historical levels (Net debt to EBITDA) • Access to $3.5B liquidity (commercial paper/credit facility) at low borrowing rates • Proven track record of returning capital to shareholders • Dividend increase of 950 percent since January 2011 • Recently announced $2B share repurchase authorization PotashCorp Highlights Slide#4
  5. 5. The Fundamentals
  6. 6. Source: Fertecon, CRU, AMEC PotashCorp Limited Number of Producers; High Costs to Entry Relative to Other Nutrients Potash Maintains Unique Structural Characteristics 1 Estimated time and cost for a conventional greenfield mine in Saskatchewan 2 Ammonia/urea complex 3 Phosphate rock mine, sulfuric acid plant, phosphoric acid plant and DAP/MAP granulation plant 4 Includes rail, utility systems, port facilities and, if applicable, cost of deposit Slide#6
  7. 7. Crop Production Challenges Remain in 2013 Continued Pressure on Crop Yields and Productivity US corn/soybean conditions weakened in mid-August, supporting crop prices. FSU crop production and exports expected to increase in 2013. Expect high yield variability due to volatile weather and low soil fertility. Expect increase in Brazilian soybean acreage, but reduction in corn acreage due to adverse planting weather. Lower global sugar prices partially offset by a weaker Real. Good summer growing conditions helped European crop recover from slow start. Regional drought and floods likely to impact China‟s crop production. Expect record corn imports and large wheat imports in 2013. Good monsoon rains support crop prospects in most regions of India. Government recently proposed $20 billion annual food subsidy program. Good moisture for rice and corn in most of Thailand and Philippines. Moisture conditions reported as adequate for Indonesia‟s oil palm. Favorable crop prospects for most regions of Canada.
  8. 8. Source: IPNI, Bloomberg, Industry Publications, PotashCorp * Based on long-term yield trials 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Malaysia Oil Palm US Corn Brazil Soybean India Wheat China Rice Sep-13 5-Year Average Fertilizer Cost as Percentage of Crop Revenue* 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Malaysia Oil Palm US Corn Brazil Soybean India Wheat China Rice Yield Attributed to Fertilizer* - Percent Significant Economic Incentive for Increased Fertilizer Usage Fertilizer Impact on Crop Yield and Return
  9. 9. Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F Million Tonnes KCl Long-term Potash Demand Growth Potential Slower Demand Periods Have Historically Been Followed by Robust Growth 6.5% CAGR 5.3% CAGR POT Sales Volume CAGR: 7% POT Sales Volume CAGR: 15% Slide#9 North America: The need to address declining potassium soil levels provides growth potential for this traditionally stable market Latin America: Additional acreage and increased fertilizer intensity expected to support strong future demand Other Asia: Acreage expansion opportunity for potash-intensive oil palm remains high in Indonesia China: An increasing reliance on grain imports and low potassium levels expected to support future demand growth India: The requirement to address lagging crop yields and quality issues is expected to drive a more proactive approach to crop fertility Africa and Other: Significant medium to long- term growth prospects given arable land expansion potential and nutrient deficient soils
  10. 10. PotashCorp: Well Positioned in Potash
  11. 11. 42% PotashCorp Rest of World Source: Fertecon, CRU, Company Reports, PotashCorp Best Positioned to Respond to Future Potash Demand Growth PotashCorp’s Sales Growth Opportunity Percentage of New Global Operational Capability (2012-2016F)* * Based on public filings and PotashCorp‟s estimates of global operational capability PotashCorp Volume Growth Potential 0 5 10 15 20 2013E Production* 2015E Operational Capability Million Tonnes Slide#11 * Based on July 26, 2013 guidance
  12. 12. 47.7% PotashCorp Other Canpotex Members Source: Company Reports, PotashCorp Anticipate Increasing Canpotex Entitlement and New Brunswick Capacity PotashCorp’s Sales Growth Opportunity Percentage of Canpotex Entitlement (First-half 2013) PotashCorp Other Canpotex Members Estimated Percentage of Canpotex Entitlement (2015E)* * Canpotex allocation anticipated to grow beyond second-half 2013 entitlement between 2013-2015 with remaining PotashCorp allocation runs and PotashCorp „sestimates for other producers Slide#12 53% - 56%
  13. 13. Source: PotashCorp, Company Reports Competitor Greenfield Projects1 PotashCorp‟s CAPEX Spending Largely Complete; Competitors Facing Rising Costs PotashCorp’s Capacity and Cost Opportunity 88% 12% Completed Remaining PotashCorp Potash Projects Estimated Capital Spending (2002-2015)* 0 5 10 15 20 Original Estimate Current Estimate Billions - US$ 129% Increase 1 Greenfield projects include: K+S (Legacy) ; Eurochem (Volgograd); Vale (Rio Colorado) 2 Estimate based on publically available project cost disclosure from current project developer or, in certain cases, previous project developer 3 Estimate based on publically available comments in presentations or transcripts from current project developer 2 3 * As at June 30, 2013 Slide#13
  14. 14. US$ Per Tonne Potential To Significantly Reduce Cost of Production Moving Forward PotashCorp Cost of Production Opportunity Source: PotashCorp Potential to reduce costs by ~25% • Potential volume improvement: New capability expected to provide opportunity to reduce per-tonne fixed costs with rising operating rates • Potential production optimization: Improvements in cost given greatest percentage of new capacity to come online at lower costs mines • Potential cost optimization: Canpotex run costs and brine inflow issues at New Brunswick abate as new capability comes on-line 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2013 Cash Cost Estimate* Potential Post-expansion Cash Cost** * Based on July 26, 2013 guidance ** Estimated based on operating rates of ~85%+ Slide#14
  15. 15. Competitively Positioned To Most Key Markets PotashCorp Delivered Cost Opportunity Source: OMS • Canpotex offshore advantage: World-class transportation and distribution infrastructure, including specialized, fast- turn rail to West Coast export terminals and long-term, cost-effective ocean vessel arrangements. Shorter relative sailing times to China and Southeast Asia. • PotashCorp domestic/offshore advantage: Proximity to Canada/US markets via rail provides delivered cost advantage over most offshore producers. World-class domestic logistics and distribution system provides ability to deliver to inland warehouses in timely and cost-effective manner to meet just-in-time customer needs. New Brunswick facility provides shorter relative sailing times to Latin America. China India Brazil Malaysia Vancouver 17 30 28 22 Saint John 35 26 16 32 Israel* 24 10 23 16 Jordan* 24 10 23 16 Germany 37 22 19 28 Russia 38 23 21 30 Ocean Freight Sailing Days * Based on equity ownership position – 28% of APC (Jordan); 14% of ICL (Israel) Slide#15
  16. 16. PotashCorp: Well Positioned in Nitrogen
  17. 17. Source: PotashCorp, Green Markets Year-over-Year* Realized Price Change Portfolio of Products Provides Less Exposure to More Volatile Urea Market PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile 36% 21% 43% Ammonia Urea Solutions/NA/AN 2013 YTD* Nitrogen Product Mix (Sales Volume) -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Ammonia Solutions/NA/AN Urea Percentage Change * Represents first-six month period of respective year Slide#17
  18. 18. Source: PotashCorp Ammonia Capacity* New Ammonia Capacity Adds Margin Growth Potential PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2012 2013F 2015 Trinidad Augusta Lima Geismar Million Tonnes * All estimated capacity amounts as at beginning of year Highlights • Geismar Expansion: New capacity brought on-stream in early 2013, expected to add approximately ~$100M of incremental gross margin in 2013 • Lima Expansion: $190 million expansion anticipated to add additional ammonia (+88K st/year) and urea capacity (+80K st/year) by late 2015. New capacity at Lima also anticipated to help grow higher-margin DEF sales potential and supply lower cost ammonia to Aurora Slide#18
  19. 19. PotashCorp: Well Positioned in Phosphate
  20. 20. Source: PotashCorp, Company Reports 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q2-09 Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13 Fertilizer Feed & Industrial PotashCorp Average Realized Sales Price Industrial and Feed Products Enhance Stability in Phosphate PotashCorp Phosphate Profile 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% PotashCorp* Mosaic** Agrium CF Feed & Industrial Fertilizer Phosphate Product Mix (Sales Volume) US$/tonne * Based on 2013 YTD sales volumes ** Mosaic‟s percentage based on feed sales volume relative to total phosphate sales volume as publicly disclosed for the most recent four fiscal quarters Slide#20
  21. 21. Source: PotashCorp Gross Margin Contribution by Product Category Optimizing Gross Margin Opportunities PotashCorp Phosphate Profile 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Fertilizer Feed & Industrial 2012 YTD* 2013 YTD* US$ - Millions Highlights • Rock Costs: Improved mining conditions, production and opportunity projects are expected to result in lower costs through balance of 2013 • Sulfur Costs: Sourcing optimization opportunities expected to reduce total delivered costs to sites • Ammonia Costs: • Shifting more production from solid fertilizer to higher-margin products, where possible • Lima expansion anticipated to provide competitive delivered cost supply to Aurora * Represents first-six months of respective year Slide#21
  22. 22. PotashCorp: Creating Shareholder Value
  23. 23. Strong Cash Flow + Reduced Capital Spending = Greater Financial Flexibility PotashCorp’s Opportunity 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cash Provided by Operating Activities Capital Spending US$ Millions Source: PotashCorp * As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010; 2003 to 2009 information is presented on a previous Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, information for 2003 to 2009 may not be comparable to 2010 , 2011 and 2012. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F US$ Millions ** Excluding capitalized interest, major repairs and maintenance and Lima expansion Annual Cash Provided by Operating Activities* PotashCorp Capital Spending** Slide#23
  24. 24. Utilizing Strong Cash Flow to Enhance Long-term Shareholder Returns PotashCorp’s Opportunity $0.03 $0.35 $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 Q4-10 Q2-11 Q4-11 Q2-12 Q4-12 Q2-13 Dividend* per Share – US$ * Dividends declared each quarter ** $0.10 per share dividend adjusted for 3 for 1 stock split; rounded to nearest cent. Source: PotashCorp $2 Billion Share Repurchase Program Announced July 24, 2013 (5% of outstanding shares through July 2014) 4.4% 2.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% POT AGU MOS CF IPI Percent Yield Slide#24 As at September 12, 2013
  25. 25. PotashCorp’s Potential Slide#25 Well Positioned Company 2013F Production 2013E Operational… 2014E Operational… 2015E Operational… 2013F Potential Post-expansion 2013F 2014F 2015F Post Expansion ~$1.5B ~$0.9B $0.35 per share* 1 Capability to significantly grow potash sales volumes 2 Potential to reduce potash per-tonne cash costs 3 Declining Capex allows for free cash flow potential 4 Stable, sustained dividend ~$1.2B $0.6-$0.8B * As at September 16, 2013
  26. 26. There‟s more online: PotashCorp.com Visit us online Facebook.com/PotashCorp Find us on Facebook Twitter.com/PotashCorp Follow us on Twitter Thank you
  27. 27. Try Our Overview Site: www.potashcorp.com/overview Looking For More Industry and Company Information? Explore our Key Markets… Find Data on Key Crops… Learn about our Company