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Cascade Effects in Container Shipping -Implication for Regional and Feeder Ports

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Cascade Effects in Container Shipping
    Implication for Regional and Feeder Ports

                                            Portek International Limited
                                                    Larry Lam, Chairman




The contents of this document are copyrighted and proprietary, and may not be reproduced without the permission of Portek International Limited
Cascade Effects in Container Shipping -Implication for Regional and Feeder Ports
What we do

 Portek is both a
 provider of equipment, services
  and solutions to ports worldwide,
  & an
 operator of medium sized ports.
What we do
• As provider to ports:
  – Modernize Port Equipment – upgrading
    equipment from PX to PPX, turnkey
  – Quick deployment of cranes to meet
    surge in traffic; sale or lease
  – Crane accidents recovery & repairs
  – Port IT & Automation modules
  – Traffic studies, marketing program to
    attract traffic, simulations
Cascade Effects in Container Shipping -Implication for Regional and Feeder Ports
What we do
• As port operator:
  – T009 & T300 (Jakarta, Indonesia)
  – Bejaia Mediterranean Terminal
    (Algeria)
  – Valetta Gateway Terminal (Malta)
  – Port of Libreville & Port Gentil ( Gabon)

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Cascade Effects in Container Shipping -Implication for Regional and Feeder Ports

  • 1. Cascade Effects in Container Shipping Implication for Regional and Feeder Ports Portek International Limited Larry Lam, Chairman The contents of this document are copyrighted and proprietary, and may not be reproduced without the permission of Portek International Limited
  • 3. What we do Portek is both a provider of equipment, services and solutions to ports worldwide, & an operator of medium sized ports.
  • 4. What we do • As provider to ports: – Modernize Port Equipment – upgrading equipment from PX to PPX, turnkey – Quick deployment of cranes to meet surge in traffic; sale or lease – Crane accidents recovery & repairs – Port IT & Automation modules – Traffic studies, marketing program to attract traffic, simulations
  • 6. What we do • As port operator: – T009 & T300 (Jakarta, Indonesia) – Bejaia Mediterranean Terminal (Algeria) – Valetta Gateway Terminal (Malta) – Port of Libreville & Port Gentil ( Gabon)
  • 10. The Trend 12,500 7,200 4,500 3,000 1980 1990 2000 2006 Maximum Vessel Size
  • 11. The Trend • By end of 2007, there were 188 Vessels of greater than 10 000 TEUs on order • By 2011, Post Panamax Vessels will contribute 50% of all container slots
  • 12. Definitions • Mid Panamax MPX ~ 2000 – 3500 TEUs • Large Panamax LPX ~ 3500+ – 4500 TEUs • Post Panamax PPX ~ 4500+ – 6000 TEUs • Large Post Panamax LPPX ~ 6000+ – 8000 TEUs • Super Post Panamax SPPX (Mega Ships) ~ 8000+ – 12500 TEUs
  • 14. Cascade Effects • Cascade effect: big ships displacing small ships across all ship sizes
  • 15. World Container Fleet Supply • Order book of 6.9 million TEU with an average ship size of 4,500 TEU. • Existing world fleet is only 11.8 TEU, with an average ship size of less than 3,000 TEU.
  • 16. LPPX/ SPPX 7,000 – 12,500TEUs Displacing LPX/ SPX 4,000 – 6,000TEUs Displacing Small Vessels 2,000 – 4,000TEUs Displacing Smaller Vessels 1,000 – 2,000TEUs
  • 17. Cascade Patterns (1) Deployment of Megaships
  • 18. Cascade Patterns (2) Routes for LPX/PPX
  • 19. Cascade Patterns (2) New (Shuttle) Services for LPX/PPX
  • 20. Cascade Patterns (3) Routes for MPX
  • 21. Shipping Economics And Implications for regional and feeder shipping
  • 22. Shipping Economics • Shipping Economics : driven by need to fill the vessel to achieve low unit slot cost
  • 23. What are the implications? • More consolidation, M&A in the regional and feeder trades? • Slot sharing, gradual exit of smaller ships? • Increase in fuel cost will further accentuate the cost difference • Ship call frequency decrease due to larger ships and bigger loads • Reduced port calls, as port with low load factor will be dropped out
  • 24. Impact on Ports Implications for regional and feeder ports
  • 25. Regional Ports & Feeder Ports • Regional ports are ports serving Intra-continent of Intra-regional trades such as Intra-Asia trades, SE Asia Trades • Feeder ports are mainly those that feed or receive cargo to and from a regional port or a major hub port
  • 26. Challenges for Regional and Feeder Ports • Questions confronting regional and feeder ports: – Are the (displaced) big ships coming to your port? – Are you pushed further into the feeder trades? – Which ports can be winners and which may be bypassed?
  • 27. The Future of Regional Ports 2,500 TEU ships 5,000 TEU ships Some regional ports may emerge as the regional hubs, and attract more transshipment traffic
  • 28. The Future of Feeder Ports 600 – 1,200 TEU ships 2,500 TEU ships Feeder ports who cannot service larger ships will be marginalized, they may dropped as a port of call, will see reduced frequency, and connectivity
  • 29. Advantage = US$ 8 / TEU / day savings in slot cost = US$ 48 for a voyage of 6 days
  • 30. Winners and Losers • For South East Asia: – Tg Priok (Jakarta)? – Manila, Laem Chabang? – Port Klang? – Cai Mep Port? With throughput in Vietnam growing at 25% a year, will Cai Mep be a winner?
  • 31. River Ports VS. Sea Ports • Cascade effect will tilt the balance in favour of sea ports: – Ho Chi Minh VS. Cai Mep – Bangkok VS. Laem Chabang – Ports along Yangtze VS. coastal ports (Yangshan, Ningbo, etc.)
  • 32. Winners and Losers • For Indian subcontinent/ Arabian Sea: – Will Nhava Sheva emerge as a major port of calls for Post Panamax vessels? – Karachi, Bandar Abbas
  • 33. Challenges What can regional and feeder ports do?
  • 34. Challenges • Insufficient cargo volume for new size of ships • Physical infrastructural constraints • Equipment constraints • IT & communication system constraints • Administrative issues – bureaucratic red tape, labour management issues, custom inspection, adopt best practices
  • 35. Cargo Volume Constraints • There must be sufficient cargo or load factor for the ship to justify making a call. • Regional Ports must: – Expand its hinterland; seize initiatives to be a gateway port for the country, and neighboring countries. – Attracting transshipment traffic – Stimulate a more balanced trade
  • 37. Physical Infrastructural Constraints • Draft: – Regional ports : 13 – 15 m – Feeder ports : 10 – 12 m • Sufficient turning radius • Berth Length: – Regional ports: 300 – 330 m – Feeder ports : 200 – 250 m
  • 38. Physical Infrastructural Constraints • Yard space: – The more usual constraint – A lot of yard space needed for an exchange of 2,000 to 3,000 boxes
  • 39. Equipment Constraints • Panamax Quay Crane – Lift Height (26 m 30 – 32 m) – Outreach (12 – 13 rows 14 – 15 rows) – Crane speeds – possible to increase incrementally
  • 40. Equipment Constraints • Panamax Quay Crane – Drive change – improve reliability, parts absolescence – General refurbishment – better cabin ergonomics, greater safety as in braking systems, etc. – Twin lift 2 X 20’ can be incorporated without major change in operating procedures
  • 41. Quay crane modification & drive change in Penang, Malaysia
  • 43. QC Drive change in PSA, Singapore
  • 44. RTG speed increase in Penang, Malaysia
  • 45. Equipment Constraints • Yard Equipment – RTG height of 1 over 4 (or 1 over 3) to 1over 5 or 1over 6 – Yard space is at a premium – Straddle carriers of 1 over 2 configuration are being phased out in favour of 1 over 3
  • 47. IT & Communication Systems • The port IT system must be able to cope with an exchange of 3,000 to 4,000 moves per ship within a 24 hour period
  • 49. Review of Operational procedures
  • 50. Radio Data Terminals for accurate real time information
  • 51. GPS Satellites Fixed GPS (reference) Send Error Correction Data Mobile GPS Position Determination Systems
  • 52. Optical Character Recognition Systems CYLU4236936
  • 53. Administrative Issues • Streamlining customs procedure and documentation flow – many ports in developing countries have time consuming custom inspection, and complicated documentation, resulting in a dwell time of containers
  • 54. Administrative Issues • Dealing with Bureaucracy - state owned ports slow to respond to customer needs, cumbersome procurement process, not able to gear up quickly to handle increased traffic • Labour issues - Some unionized labour force continuing with outdated work practices, resist changes and new technology
  • 56. Conclusion: Mega Hub and Regional Port • Big ships reinforce the hub and spoke pattern of shipping, favoring mega hub ports • Some regional ports will be winners and emerge as regional hubs. Many will be bypassed
  • 57. Conclusion: Feeder Ports and Feeder Shipping • Feeder ports face pressure as feeder vessels scale up. Failure to cope means: high freight costs, low connectivity and becoming less relevant • Further shake-out in regional and feeder shipping through mergers and acquisitions. Smaller ships of less than 1000 TEU size will retreat to marginal or niche routes or to domestic, inter-island routes