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Future of Retail: Alison Key, DAC Beachcroft

  1. MARKET TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER PROPERTY Evolution of the leisure experience Themes
  2. 20 consultations 8,000 consumers 4,800 locations / 80,000 occupiers 8 sub-markets Evolution of the leisure experience Methodology
  3. • Leisure spend growth consistently outpaces retail • Household restaurant spend has levelled but due to increase • Cinema admissions have flat lined, but revenue (GBO) has increased 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Spend yoy growth Retail Goods Leisure services Restaurant 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 155 160 165 170 175 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GBO£m AdmissionsMillions Cinema market admissions and GBO Admissions m Gross box office £m Market dynamics & change Industry growth £2,400 £2,600 £2,800 £3,000 £3,200 £0 £50,000,000,000 £100,000,000,000 Restaurant Spend Restaurant Spend (£) Restaurant Spend (£) Per Household Source: Oxford Economics / Dodona
  4. • 72% of leisure units are on high streets… • But density higher in schemes • 75% of leisure/F&B growth in last 5 years has been from change of use - not new development • Growth in F&B has been well ahead of other sub- sectors • London high street units still ahead of the UK for leisure provision – but the gap is narrowing (36% compared to 22%) • Independent sector covering new ground Market dynamics & change Size & usage 72% 1% 13% 1% 2% 4% 7% Leisure units by location type 2018 High Street In Town Leisure Town Centre Shopping Centres Other Shopping Centres Regional Mall Out Of Town Leisure Schemes Retail & Shopping Parks Source: Savills - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Growth in ‘branded’ leisure units 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
  5. Market dynamics & change Challenges & prospects 79% 78% 73% 72% 70% 62% 50% 37% 19% 14% 17% 15% 23% 27% 9% 19% An increase in the cost of raw materials Business Rates Increased staff costs Fall of pound Increased costs of imported goods Decreased staff availability The impact of terrorism Rising rental values Challenges envisaged by business leader Anticipate having an effect in the next six months Already had an effect on business • Headwinds, saturation & CVAs • Has Casual Dining had its day? • F&B growth anticipated to grow at subdued level outside of key markets • Other markets will grow cautiously where there are good opportunities Source: CGA Business Leaders Survey 2018
  6. Consumer Context Understanding different leisure journeys • Polarisation of leisure experiences… but consumers constantly switch between them • Blending of day parts • Relationship with retail and other uses • Importance of a mixed use offer “After a cinema visit, 22% of audiences go for a meal and/or drink, 14% visit a fast food restaurant of café and 9% go shopping.” UK Cinema Association
  7. • Convenience, Experience, Service • Streamlining and simplifying booking & payment • Social media • Smart phones have been the key enabler • Entertainment experiences & VR Role of technology Consumer experience
  8. • Enhanced asset utilisation • Improved customer satisfaction and experience • Loyalty & promotions Role of technology Operational benefits 18% 23% 27% 35% 40% 48% 90% 23% 28% 33% 22% 21% 21% 6% 59% 49% 41% 42% 39% 32% 4% Order via app Pay via app More ways to pay Technology to place orders Pay via phone Ability for consumers to split bills Contactless payments What advancements in technology have you already implemented or are you planning on implementing in 2018? Already implemented Planning on implementing in 2018 Not implemented/not planning on implementing in 2018 Source: CGA Business Leaders Survey 2018
  9. • A controversial but significant disruptor • UK delivery market worth £1.6bn • 54% of UK pop have used an app when ordering a takeaway (83% London) • There are operational benefits for many… • …But challenges persist too with some operators having reluctant but necessary involvement Role of technology F&B & delivery pre 199 ad-hoc delivery from local takeaway 1999 Domino’s launches online ordering 2001 JustEat launches as ‘menu aggregator’ 2011 Domino’s launches delivery app 2013 Deliveroo launches in UK 2016 Uber Eats launches in UK 2018 Deliveroo YOY revenue growth of 600%
  10. • Relationship between retail & leisure increasingly symbiotic • Greater synergies between retail & leisure should create more engaging and memorable consumer experiences that will be even more effective at driving footfall and repeat visitation • Mixed uses • Some occupiers seeking less prime space Property considerations Space & location
  11. • Leisure industry is so diverse that there is not one simple solution that fits all • Right operator, right location, right adjacencies and right lease structure • Tapping into footfall – wherever it comes from • Importance of independent operators • Less homogeneous schemes may require landlords to take bigger risk on tenants… But this is what consumers want… Property considerations Flexibility of approach
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