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DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
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DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
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DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
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DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
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DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
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DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
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DAC Beachcroft report: Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward

  1. Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward
  2. Foreword. We are all aware of the significant changes in customer behaviour in recent years. Influenced by the growth of online retail and subdued discretionary spending, this has had a profound impact on retail industry, the result of which we can see in towns and cities across the UK. Consumers’ desire for the ultimate ‘leisure experience’ joining shopping, eating out and entertainment has driven strong growth in consumer leisure spending. Our publication Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward, seeks to understand the changing face of leisure and retail property as we move to more mixed use places throughout the country. The overall picture of the sector is positive, with a strong year-on-year consumer spending growth. The expansion of food and beverage (F&B), cinema and health and fitness (H&F) operators has been unprecedented over the last decade. Nonetheless, this report highlights the challenges the industry is facing, with increasing costs and staff shortages being the most prominent. Some F&B operators are also facing difficulties due to over- expansion, and the declining quality of service and experience. However, there is a general belief that these problems are not industry-wide. Additionally, technological advancements have an increasingly crucial role in the leisure environment, improving operational efficiency and the quality of customer service. The introduction of food delivery services has turned out to be a real disruptor for the restaurant sector. Leisure too, has now become an inherent part of retail real estate; however, successful integration of a shopping and leisure offer is not an easy task to achieve. Landlords and asset management professionals need to have a good understanding of demographic and behavioural profile of consumers in the catchment area, in order to create the appropriate offer. Also, a higher degree of creativity and flexibility is needed regarding leasing and approaches to valuations. Through market analysis and consultation with leisure and property experts, this report is essential reading for anyone that seeks to understand the evolving face of leisure and retail sector, and the speed with which these changes are happening. Mark Williams President, Revo Director, The Hark Group
  3. Evolution of the leisure experience; looking forward Researched and written by: Tom Whittington, Savills Richard Barron, Aspect Market Research Savills Belvedere 12 Booth Street Manchester M2 4AW Aspect Market Research 54-56 Bridge Street Manchester M3 3BW Sponsors: Revo Charter House 13-15 Carteret Street Westminster London, SW1H 9DJ +44 (0)20 7222 1122 revocommunity.org DAC Beachcroft 100 Fetter Lane London EC4A 1BN +44 (0) 20 7242 1011 dacbeachcroft.com Design by Sian Mullarkey, Revo. Revo wishes to thank members of the steering group for their support throughout this research: Sarah Fox, Hammerson / Marc Ward, Azzurri Group / Kannika Mall, M&G / Adam Blaker, Leon Restaurants / Davinder Jhamat, Revo / Zuzanna Baranowska, Revo. Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily the views of DAC Beachcroft. No liability is accepted to users or third parties for the use of the contents or any errors or inaccuracies therein. Professional advice should always be obtained before applying the information to particular circumstances. For further details, please go to www. dacbeachcroft.com/eng/gb/about/privacy-policy. By reading this publication you accept that you had read, understood and agree to the terms of this disclaimer. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers, Revo and DAC Beachcroft. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed.
  4. 2 List of contents. 03 Executive summary 05 Introduction 07 Market dynamics and change Market size and current floorspace usage Market saturation concerns Future growth prospects 21 The consumer context Importance of different leisure journeys Visitation and spend Brand loyalty 29 The role of technology Technology for consumer experience Technology for operational benefits F&B and delivery 36 Looking forward: considerations and responses Space and location Lease structures and rental levels Flexibility of approach 43 Appendix Methodology Definitions/Glossary
  5. 3 4 Amid changing customer behaviour, the role of leisure and in particular food and beverage (F&B) in the retail environment has evolved significantly in recent years. The inflow of contradictory news on the performance and the possible future of the sector has created a rather confusing picture. This research explores the broad spectrum of issues concerning the leisure market, from the change in consumers’ behaviour, impact of technology to the implications for the property industry. The report provides an insight into the current state of the market and future developments. Expansion of leisure Spending levels across retail, F&B and non-food leisure continue to grow year-on-year, and are forecast to grow across all sectors by around 4% annually for the next 10 years (with a slower growth in 2018-2019). The expansion of cinema, health & fitness (H&F) and F&B operators has been unprecedented over the last decade. Restaurants, cafés & takeaways have seen the sharpest increase in the number of units of all leisure sectors. The number of restaurant units in occupation has increased by over 70% since 2010, while cafés & takeaways have seen growth of over 50%. Spending in restaurants was £80.4 billion in 2017, forecast to increase to £93.6 billion by 2030. The H&F market is also expected to continue its rapid growth. The number of facilities grew by 5% year on year between 2016 and 2017, with the total market value experiencing over 6% growth during this period, reaching £4.7 billion. Operators are still expanding aggressively and the boutique market is likely to see serious expansion into the regional cities in the coming years. The competitive socialising sector is on the rise, with a large number of independents operators. However, the sector remains fragmented and focused on regional cities and London. Both the existing leisure supply and growth are significantly weighted to high street locations, accounting for 80% of all leisure floorspace. Much of this growth has been made possible through change of use of units rather than new development. London dominates in terms of a higher proportion of space devoted to leisure, frequency of visits and higher spending, compared with the rest of the country. Challenges ahead Despite this strong growth, leisure operators are facing certain challenges, in particular some sectors within F&B. Increasing sourcing, operating and property costs, staff shortages and economic uncertainty are expected to constrict growth. With the leisure sector being heavily reliant on an EU workforce, Brexit is a major challenge for leisure industry. Despite several high-profile F&B Company Voluntary Arrangements (CVAs) in 2018, operators’ view is that this is a consolidation and correction of the market. While the market does have issues with micro- saturation in the casual dining sector, operators do not believe that saturation is industry-wide. Many casual dining operators missed a chance to reinvigorate their offer. Rather than investing in the experience, they cut costs leading to declining quality of experience. This, combined with the increase in prices in 2017 led to a significant drop in the perceived value of some casual dining offers. The quality of experience and excellent customer service remain the key to success. Keeping up with the consumer The link between retail and leisure time is stronger than ever with consumers constantly switching between the need for convenience or pleasure. The convenience, experience and service are three most important factors in consumer engagement with leisure. Executive Summary. Brand loyalty is becoming polarised within different leisure sectors. For the F&B sector it is a challenge. The more mature and varied the offer becomes, the more consumers expect in return. The pressure to pull in returning customers is forcing the industry to become more efficient and of higher quality, which is good for the customer experience. However, as consumers are eager to try out new brands and formats, operators cannot rely just on loyalty. For the F&B operators, it is important to note that 20% of consumers make up half of eating occasions and this is often led by the Millennial group. While Millennials might lead the way with some brands, having family appeal is a key target for the sector. Technology a key in improving operational efficiency Technology is increasingly important throughout retail and especially in leisure. It is being used to increase convenience, enrich the experience and deliver improved customer service. The most significant enabler of tech is undoubtedly the smartphone. Without the advancement of this technology online bookings, social media engagement, mobile payments and delivery services would never have been able to play as significant a role. Technological developments provide the operators the means for improving operational efficiency, which in the casual dining sector in particular might prove essential for businesses that have over-stretched their operations or gone into competitive locations. Improved operational efficiency is also of relevance to landlords who want to ensure their occupiers have sustainable, viable spaces. A real game changer: food delivery The introduction of food delivery services such as Deliveroo and Uber Eats is one of the most impactful developments for the restaurant sector in recent years, affecting operators and consumers. Operators recognise that there are challenges that require them to change their business models and operations or be left behind. The UK delivery market was worth a total of £6.7 billion in 2017 and is forecast to grow even further, with predicted revenues of £7.5 billion for 2018. For landlords the growth in this sector is likely to result in new occupants rethinking their space and configuration requirements, and appropriate access for drivers. Property perspective Leisure is an enabler for retail, increasing the duration of retail trips as well as opening different parts of the trading day. Greater synergy between leisure and retail has the potential to create more engaging and memorable consumer experiences effectively driving footfall, repeat visitation and spending. The evolving place of leisure in consumers’ lives will affect landlords in different ways. The key to the future considerations is the flexibility of approach. That is the right operator, right location, right adjacencies and right lease structure. Flexibility on rents, space, location and offer is not always easy to implement. It requires close asset management, creativity and often a step away from traditional occupier portfolios, leases, approach to valuation and rents. The rise from the independent sector is the positive story of leisure that we expect to see make its mark over the next few years and with it is the opportunity to revitalise schemes, and provide a point of difference.
  6. 5 6 The purpose of this project is to inform the industry of the issues surrounding the increased presence of leisure within retail real estate, and how this should be best managed going forwards to maximise the opportunities it presents. The societal changes in behaviour and the impact of new technology are the key drivers of the profound change in retail and leisure industries. Operators are trying to keep up with the fast changing consumer behaviour, in particular the dissonance between convenience and pleasure; tackle rising costs and grasp new tech developments in order to increase operational efficiency and deliver good customer experience. These are also major challenges for landlords trying to deliver the best possible occupier mix and develop strategy for their portfolios. To address these issues, the report has been divided into four key considerations: • the current market and its dynamics • the consumer context • the role of technology • key implications for landlords Above all, the report assesses the importance of emerging trends in the coming years, which have implications on F&B operators, landlords and consumer expectations of a leisure offering. Throughout this paper, the term leisure includes the full range of non-retail property. This includes non-F&B related property usage. However, in reality the majority of the leisure sector is dominated by F&B. There is also a significant proportion of activity in leisure that is not related to F&B although this is primarily cinemas and H&F along with other non-F&B related activities. The report provides an in-depth analysis of the market and consultations with industry stakeholders. The detailed methodology and glossary are outlined in the appendix. The current market and its dynamics. The consumer context. The role of technology. Key implications for landlords. Introduction.
  7. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Retail goods Leisure services Restaurant £2,400 £2,600 £2,800 £3,000 £3,200 £0 £50bn £100bn 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Restaurant spend (£bn) Restaurant spend (£) per household 7 8 In 2018, weekly commentary never passes without some mention of Brexit, market saturation, or consumer confidence and the negative impact these issues are expected to have in consumer markets. Yet leisure has enjoyed significant growth across all sectors while the fortunes of retail has been much more varied. The report starts with an overview of the leisure market with an examination of the market size and usage, where the recent growth has been and what locations are most significant in providing the leisure experience. Given the current rhetoric around CVAs and saturation in the F&B market, some context has been provided on how significant a problem this is, before speculating on where the growth is likely to come from in the next few years. Marketdynamics. Spending levels across retail, F&B and leisure continue to grow year-on-year. Average spending is forecast to grow across all sectors by around 4% annually for the next 10 years, with an expected slowdown in 2018 and 2019, largely due to consumer uncertainties over Brexit. However, by 2020 spending growth is expected to recover and stabilise. Spending in restaurants1 was £80.4 billion in 2017 with an average spend per household of £2,916. This is forecast to increase to a total market spend of £93.6 billion by 2030 when average household spend will reach £3,062. Restaurant spend has proven to be resistant to economic downturns compared with other consumer markets, especially retail. Market size and usage. Source: Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics/Pitney Bowes Spend y-o-y growth Restaurant spend 1 All F&B
  8. 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 155 157 159 161 163 165 167 169 171 173 175 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 GBO(£m) Admissions(millions) Admissions (m) Gross box office (£m) 109 Cinemas remain the most important non-F&B leisure offer and continue to show growth despite the rise of alternative content providers such as online streaming services. Gross box office (GBO) value was £1.29 billion in 2017, an increase of £347 million from 2009. You’ve almost got a cinema operator for every type of scheme. Historically you had multiplex operators and arthouse operators with nothing in between. Now there’s something for everyone. That’s the same in terms of ticket price for the customer and size of site for the developer… There is a wide range. Leisure operator Cinema admissions tend to fluctuate according to which films are released and especially the number of blockbuster films in a particular year. Blockbusters are particularly important for the larger multiplex operators which rely on larger volumes of admissions than the boutique operators and will fill as many screens as possible with these titles when released. There were 170 million admissions in 2017 which is 4 million fewer than in 2009. Admissions per person fell from 2.71 visits per annum to 2.57 between 2011 and 2016. However, despite the declining trend, revenues have held up well – increased ticket prices and concession spend have compensated for the drop in admission numbers. Source: Dodona Gross box office vs Admissions Other areas of leisure have seen significant expansion. H&F is showing strong growth, especially in the regions. There were 6,728 fitness facilities in the UK in 2017; 5% up compared to 2016. The total market value is estimated at £4.7 billion, a rise of 6.3% year-on-year. Much of the growth has been from the budget operators, however boutique outfits with a premium niche offer often from strong footfall or worker locations are also seeing substantial growth. In London and some other major cities, concepts combining eating/drinking and ‘play’ are emerging. These feature some form of group challenge and have been termed ‘competitive socialising’. Concepts include formats such as breakout, darts, table tennis and axe throwing. While there are a large number of independent operators in this space, no single brand or format has been identified as able to disrupt the market and see substantial growth outside of the major cities. One sub-sector that has a potential to become a disruptor is trampoline concepts. This sector has tended to be focused on industrial units. However, there is now a move to locate these in more prime space and shopping centres. Operationally this remains highly fragmented as there are 72 different brands in 156 locations nationally. In terms of leisure floorspace, there has been steady increase over the past five years. What is quite striking is the amount of leisure that is on the high street rather than in formal schemes or shopping centres. In 2018, there was a total of 120,833 leisure units in occupation. Of these, 65% are on the high street. The next highest location type is town centre shopping centres (20%), followed by retail and shopping parks (11%). The overwhelming majority of leisure units are therefore based in town centres. However, the high street element is fragmented. With as many as 4,761 high streets, there are an average of 16 leisure units per each high street, compared to 24 leisure units in each town centre shopping centre. Looking at the cinema market there’s probably only been one or two multiplexes that have closed in the last 30 years. They don’t like to give up. Ashley Blake, CEO, Otium Real Estate Ltd.
  9. No. of schemes No. of leisure units High street 4,761 78,193 In town leisure 36 347 Town centre shopping centre 990 23,773 Other shopping centres 122 1,230 Regional mall 14 2,744 Out of town leisure schemes 125 1,426 Retail and shopping parks 1,069 13,120 High street 116,028,100 In town leisure 1,910,600 Town centre shopping centres 9,785,800 Other shopping centres 438,000 Regional malls 1,767,900 Out of town leisure 8,726,200 Retail and shopping parks 7,770,100 14% 83% 8% 14% 12% 64% 12% 25% 92% 14% 26% 19% 67% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% High street In town leisure Town centre shopping centres Other shopping centres Regional mall Out of town leisure schemes Retail & shopping parks 2010 2018 26% 82% 14% 31% 6% 78% 15% 36% 92% 20% 43% 19% 82% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2018 High street In town leisure Town centre shopping centres Other shopping centres Regional malls Out of town leisure schemes Retail & shopping parks 12% 83% 7% 12% 13% 63% 12% 22% 92% 14% 25% 19% 65% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2018 High street In town leisure Town centre shopping centres Other shopping centres Regional malls Out of town leisure schemes Retail & shopping parks 1211 In terms of volume of space, the high street dwarfs the other location types in terms of leisure use; 116 million sq ft is occupied by leisure, representing a 17% increase of leisure floorspace on the high street in the past five years. Town centre shopping centres have 9.8 million sq ft occupied by leisure. These two location types alone account for 86% of leisure floorspace in the UK. In contrast, regional malls which have a higher concentration but from only 14 locations, account for 1.7 million sq ft of leisure floorspace; 1% of the UK total. In terms of leisure units as a proportion of total retail and leisure space, in town leisure sees the highest share with 92% of units being leisure, followed by out of town leisure schemes (67%). The share of leisure in tenant mix has increased in recent years across all type of locations. However, the growth has been most significant on high streets (from 14% to 25%) and shopping centres (from 14% to 26%). Leisure floorspace by location type Source: Savills/Geolytix Number of leisure units Source: Savills/GOAD There is a higher proportion of space dedicated to leisure in London compared with the rest of the country. This is unsurprising given the social culture in the capital, with the majority of new brands tending to launch in London before rolling out to the regions. 36% of high street units in London are occupied by leisure, compared with 22% in the rest of the UK. Significantly, a higher proportion of leisure units in London has also been recorded in out- of-town leisure schemes - 82% compared with 65% for the rest of the UK, as well as in other shopping centres - 43% versus 25%. Source: Savills/Geolytix Leisure as proportion of retail and leisure units London Not London Source: Savills/Geolytix Source: Savills/Geolytix
  10. - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Restaurants Cafés & takeaways Pubs, bars & clubs Fitness Cinemas Traditional D2 New D2* Other leisure 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 *Unofficial planning category covering emerging leisure formats including those designed for competitive socialising. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% High street In town leisure Town centre shopping centres Other shopping centres Regional mall Out of town leisure schemes Retail & shopping parks 2013 to 2014 2014 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017 2017 to 2018 13 14 Restaurants, cafés & takeaways have seen the sharpest increases in the number of units of all leisure sectors. There are 4,325 restaurant units in occupation in 2018 compared with just 2,527 in 2010. Cafés & takeaways occupy 9,161 units in 2018 compared with 5,877 in 2010. The number of restaurants, cafés & takeaways openings may well be understated – market data tends not to capture small niche operators, of which there are many – especially in London. The H&F sector shows a long-term growth trend too. There has been some fluctuation in number of units for this sector. A dip in 2016 may reflect changes in operators’ business models and a polarisation between budget and premium offers. The number of cinema units has almost doubled since 2010 – growth has been driven, in part, by an increasing Source: Savills/GOAD Growth in leisure units by sector number of smaller auditoriums and a move towards more indulgent, premium offers. Change of use to leisure provision has steadied from its peak level in 2013/14, often from an A1 or A3 conversion1 . This period showed average change of use to leisure of 9% during a period of significant expansion in the sector. Change of use has run at around 2-3% year-on-year since. While in the peak period of 2013/2014, the in-town leisure saw the highest rate of conversions (15%); the largest amount of change of use units in 2018 was in town centre shopping centres. 1 For explanation on use classes, please check the appendix. Change of use from non-leisure to leisure (% total leisure provision) Source: Savills/GOAD
  11. 15 16 Market saturation concerns in the F&B sector. Even if you are the best operator in a scheme there comes a point where you still lose business. There’s a balancing act where, if there’s too much it’s not good for anyone, but there can be just the right amount for everyone. Restaurant operator The early part of 2018 saw a number of restaurant operators falling into economic difficulties and it is therefore important to consider the significance of the issue. Famous brands such as Jamie’s Italian, Carluccio’s, Prezzo, Strada and Byron have all announced closures and restructuring. Some have entered voluntary agreements with their creditors in order to keep trading and there are whispers of more on the horizon. This has led some to question whether there is simply too much supply in the market and that we have reached the point of saturation within the industry with too many restaurants chasing too few consumers. One regional shopping centre had 10 restaurants next to their cinema complex – a good tenant mix and all trading well. Then they added another ten restaurants, five burger restaurants and five Italians and it was too much. Marc Ward, Group Head of Acquisitions, Azzurri Group According to operators, the market is not fatally wounded. They see the difficulties being experienced by some as a consolidation and correction of the market; there are issues with micro-saturation (saturation in specific locations). However, operators do not believe that saturation is industry-wide. Some locations, such as smaller towns where dining out is restricted mainly to weekends, cannot support the number of operators. Most of metropolitan and city locations are generally holding up well, however even these may suffer local saturation issues. There is also over-supply of certain types of restaurant offer. Some of the problems have been caused by the way some brands have managed their expansion. Private equity backed groups have often adopted a strategy of rapid growth, as incremental gains of adding extra sites was seen as the best way to offer shareholders return on investment. However, in seeking to grow as fast as possible, many companies were loaded with debt funding thereby increasing the exposure of the businesses to any economic shocks. The ’race for space’ that ensued meant that bidding wars have taken place for some locations, resulting in some operators taking on sites that are less profitable than their original core estate. The sector is changing very quickly and significant operators are struggling. It will be interesting to see who will come out of the ashes. We have reached a bit of a tipping point where businesses are slowing or stopping their roll out. It might mean more independent operators have more of a chance. There’s a lot of property on the market at the moment from major operators because some have over extended themselves. Restaurant operator Casual dining is said to be at the core of the problem. Yet, fewer than 10% of 56,000 restaurants in the UK are branded casual dining. Additionally, there are 100,000 pubs, takeaways and cafés, all vying for a share of the consumer pound. Consumers have proven increasingly willing to spend on eating out at the same time as they have limited spending on grocery and comparison goods shopping, but sometimes supply has outstripped the ever-increasing demand for a good restaurant offer from consumers. Despite mixed fortunes in retail since the downturn, the restaurant market and in particular the ‘casual dining’ market has seen considerable growth over the last half decade; 1,500 restaurants opened in the UK during the 12 months to October 2017 (a 4% increase y-o-y), with branded restaurants increasing 55% in the past decade. Restaurant spend has increased, with spend on dining out estimated to be £580 more per household than five years ago in the strongest regions. The next five years, however, are expected to see household spend growth slow and the longer trend shows that consumers are still spending less on eating out than back in 2008. It will be another decade before household restaurant spend is at pre- recession levels. Nevertheless, the total pool of available consumer restaurant spending surpassed pre-recession levels in 2015 to over £81 billion and will exceed £85 billion by 2020 and £91 billion by 2026. Therefore, while household restaurant spend levels growth is slowing, overall market capacity continues to grow rapidly.
  12. 79% 19% 78% 14% 73% 17% 72% 15% 70% 23% 62% 27% 50% 9% 37% 19% An increase in the cost of raw materials Business rates Increased staff costs Fall of pound Increased costs of imported goods Decreased staff availability The impact of terrorism Rising rental values Already had an effect on business Anticipate having an effect in the next six months 1817 Consumers are taking an increasingly flexible approach to how they structure their lives, blurring boundaries between day parts and combining activities that were previously separated. This flexibility is reflected in a desire for convenience – restaurants’ offer should match consumers’ expectations. Increasingly, diners want more personalisation and unique experiences, which opens the door to smaller independent operators who are more able to tailor the offer; the quality of customer service being the number one factor behind repeat visits. With hindsight, many casual dining operators missed a chance to reinvigorate their offer. Rapid expansion led to standardisation of the offer as a means to facilitate growth. Rather than investing in the experience, many casual dining operators cut costs leading to declining quality of experience. At the same time, prices started to creep up – 69% of restaurant businesses increased their prices in 2017. Once customers started to feel that they were paying premium rates for an `average’ experience, the perceived value of some casual dining offers dropped significantly. Some brands haven’t done the basics – you have to refurbish, change the menu to keep it fresh and up to date, you have to have a situation where people think they are getting value for money in terms of food quality and service quality. Marc Ward, Group Head of Acquisitions, Azzurri Group Taking the example of Jamie’s Italian, it believes that its fundamental business model is sound. Once it has restructured its estate, it will focus on improving the overall experience for customers, making sure that it lives by the values that their original business succeeded with. There are casual dining brands that have continued to thrive. Nando’s is one example of a business that continues to meet a need within the market. Pizza Express is celebrating over 50 years in business and is in a healthy state. Turtle Bay have had a measured approach to expansion with 20 new locations in three years, avoiding brutally expensive leases and they are performing well. These brands attribute their success to remaining close to the customer - continually listening to them and making small changes that ensure the experiences remain relevant and valued. Ultimately, if casual dining brands can return to the core values and practices that made them a success, while learning the lessons of over-expansion, there seems little to prevent them prospering once again. We should remember too that CVAs are not a new phenomenon in the restaurant sector and have previously been used by CDC and Ed’s Easy Diner. These operators are still operating successful businesses following consolidation. With consumers often switching between seeking value and indulgence, the biggest challenges often sit within the squeezed middle tier, where the market is highly competitive and some brands lack clear distinction. Marry this with food and wage inflation, and retention of staff, it isn’t difficult to see that there are challenges ahead for some operators. David Bell, Head of UK Leisure, Savills Future growth prospects. There’s a lot of property on the market at the moment from major operators because some have over extended themselves. Costs are going up – rates, rent, the minimum wage – have all hit everyone at the same time so a lot are going to go out of business amidst a lot of competition. Restaurant operator Headwinds anticipated by operators in the F&B sector Source: CGA Business Confidence Survey, Q4 17 The growth, which will continue, will be subdued by certain issues and challenges, such as rising costs. Some sectors, especially restaurants, will be operating in a difficult environment in the short term, with rising costs being the main challenge. Property costs, both initial fit-out and ongoing rents, have been rising. Fit-out costs have been increasing as restaurants tried to deliver differentiation in venue experiences. F&B operators have sought out prime locations with relatively higher rents. Food costs have also been rising partly due to price increases from suppliers but also due to rising transportation costs. Rate revaluations have started to bite, with many operators experiencing significant increases in the level of rates they pay. One or two of our sites’ rates have quadrupled – that kind of increase is hard to stomach in any business. Anyone not doing 5% like-for-like is going backwards because of the cost increase. Restaurant operator Rising labour costs is another factor that is having a negative effect. There is a shortage of skilled labour, especially chefs, which is increasing demand for staff as vacancies become harder to fill. This in turn is pushing up wages as potential staff have a greater choice. The decision to leave the EU in 2019 has created some specific issues for the industry. The fall in the value of Sterling has had an impact on food prices as well as the availability of labour. UK is now less attractive financially for EU workers. Some may also feel less welcome in the UK or do not want the uncertainty of status that has arisen as a consequence of the referendum.
  13. 19 20 In short, the challenges outlined above make the sector landscape difficult, although once they have been surmounted the outlook is much more optimistic. Nevertheless, some operators will need to show good year- on-year growth, possibly ahead of the market, to maintain their profitability at current levels. I think we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg. Food costs are going through the roof, Brexit is a disaster, cost inflation and recruitment is getting harder and sales are down. Morgan Davies, CEO, Barburrito There has to be a stabilisation of the relationship. There has to be a clear out of restaurants. The strong will survive and the ones that survive will do very well. Those that went on the expansion plan, saying they will open 20 restaurants but opened 23 took their eyes off it. Leisure operator While there are undoubtedly headwinds in the F&B industry, it is not all bad news. The frequency of eating out is at a four- year high. Across all age ranges, people are expecting their food and drink spend to rise, with 31% of 18 to 34-year-olds expect to spend more. In terms of economic uncertainty, consumers become more value conscious. That is not to say that they are only price driven; however, they are more discerning about the overall experience they receive. Those operators that are seen to offer value in its broadest sense should prosper. The ‘grab and go’ market looks set to expand further as it offers a good blend of value and convenience. While 2017 and the early part of 2018 have seen a lot of site closures, it was also a period when a lot of investment was made by brands. Burger King is expecting to open 14 new sites a year – a demonstration of confidence by its private equity backers. Azzurri has continued to trade well and is continuing to expand the Zizzi and ASK brands. This can be taken as evidence that, despite over-expansion in some areas, the underlying business fundamentals are good. Nando’s is progressing well with its fit-out program. Its investment in sites combined with highly effective social media marketing is leading to increased sales, especially in the regions. Wet led brands like Living Ventures, New World Trading Co. and Revolución de Cuba are all planning expansion. For landlords, there is still demand for prime locations. In other locations, rises in rents are likely to be more challenging. This presents opportunities for brands like Turtle Bay and Franco Manca that prioritise opening in this type of location. Menu changes take account of increasingly health conscious eating looks set to become more popular – especially vegan and vegetarian options. Fundamentally, many branded concepts are sound and will be able to attract customers on their menu and pricing. There is also still activity from smaller restaurant operators looking to expand and making the transition from independents to small brands (e.g. Rudy’s Pizza, Mowgli and Bundabust), or from street food stalls to restaurant locations (Panchos Burrito and North Soul). There are many foodie entrepreneurs across the country creating new concepts that rock the boat for traditional casual dining, following new trends and offering value and great service to customers. While several finance-backed restaurant groups are currently reaching its brand’s own critical mass, the next line of small operators is in waiting and we anticipate that in five years’ time the challenges of 2018 will appear to be a blip in an otherwise positive story. In other leisure sectors growth will vary according to the different sub-market. Cinema operators remain open to opportunities. However, in reality these are relatively rare and are on schemes that require restaurant provision to make the schemes viable to develop and therefore closely tied to the fortunes in that market. The boutique cinema operators are active and benefit from needing smaller footprints but typically seek more aspirational markets. The H&F market is expected to continue its rapid growth. Operators are still expanding aggressively and the boutique market is likely to see serious expansion into the regional cities in the coming years. However, most H&F expansion is likely to be in high street locations and is more influenced by high footfall than other leisure offers. Competitive socialising is getting a lot of media attention at present, with some very original concepts around virtual reality, axe-throwing, table tennis, rock climbing, urban golf and team ‘break out’ challenges. However, these are typically niche operations that will pop up in large urban centres which are unlikely to grow exponentially in the next few years. Landlords are likely to experiment with some of these concepts to fill awkward space and to provide interest to consumers who are constantly looking for fresh experiences.
  14. 2221 Consumer tastes in some areas of leisure are changing rapidly, yet in others remain much as they have in the past few decades. Understanding consumers’ habits is critical to the future of the sector. While leisure has helped support many retail locations it is clear that what works in one location may not work in another. Central to the consumer context is how consumer confidence impacts on leisure experiences differently to retail and yet the interaction with retail and leisure continues to become more blended. While consumer confidence has fluctuated creating a challenging environment for retail, leisure has surpassed expectation and remained resilient. If anything, the last decade has proven that the UK consumer is dynamic and has altered how they have used their earnings and spent their retail and leisure time. The retail and leisure market to a large degree has adapted in line with these changes and is in a much stronger position to shoulder further economic shocks in the next decade than at the beginning of the global financial crisis. Fundamentally, any retail or leisure strategy needs to look past any specific shock to economic recovery and consider the long-term trends; the consumer desire for leisure experiences and eating out remains unabated. The frequency in which we visit different kinds of leisure places and how much we spend on leisure experiences depends very much on the leisure, retail, work, or other social journeys that we are on. Theconsumercontext. Case study: Rise of street food market halls Food market halls are becoming increasingly popular and provide a very effective bridge for street food operators wanting to take more permanent space without the need for committing to long leases. These schemes really tap into increasing consumer demand for quality, quick and tasty food from around the world in a very sociable environment and an opportunity to interact directly with entrepreneurial vendors who are passionate about their food. The developer of Altrincham Market took an unloved market scheme in a struggling North West town and created an incredibly popular and vibrant eating and drinking scheme that has helped to revitalise the fortunes of both the market and the town centre. On Altrincham’s success, Mackie Mayor was developed in redundant Smithfield Market in Manchester’s Northern Quarter. Ten operators service ‘up-market street food’ in a great environment. The significance of this scheme is that it was opened late-2017, just as there were cracks appearing in some of the city centre’s casual dining market. Mackie’s demonstrates that opportunities exist in many markets that are already well provided for and that saturation is often a micro-location concern.
  15. EXPERIENTIAL COMPARISON INDULGENT OCCASIONAL PREMIUM DESTINATION FUNCTIONAL CONVENIENCE ESSENTIAL FREQUENT VALUE LOCAL Health clubs Hotels Department stores Branded restaurants Museums Fashion Ski slope Multiplex Bowling Homewares Bingo Independent restaurants Cafes Leisure centres Grocery Boutique cinemas Retail services Gyms DIY Pubs Destination Community Convenience Experience INCREASED RELATIONSHIP BETW EEN RETAILAND LEISURE 2423 What continues to drive consumer visits to stores and shopping centres is the notion of a retail trip as a leisure pastime. One clear consequence of changes in the last decade, is that shopping has become polarised between what we need and what we want. There are many different retail and leisure journeys, and consumers’ expectations of experience or functionality vary according to the priority at a given time. Importance of different leisure journeys. Shopping centres need to be aware they are being increasingly exposed to a mix of reasons why people will be there other than for shopping. It is important especially for fast food rather than casual dining. If I go to a shopping centre for a morning it will involve a few hours shopping, then inevitably sitting down for a meal; fast food is more immediate and whilst you are on the move. Restaurant operator The most significant link between retail and leisure is with regards to F&B. It has been increasingly heralded by retail landlords as an essential means to increasing footfall and extending dwell times and is equally down to the recognition that many retail journeys are in fact a form of leisure trip. Consumers are attracted by experience and convenience. A strong leisure component to the retail experience pulls shoppers in from further afield who in turn will choose to stay longer, spend more money and importantly come back. Without the retail element of shopping centres what will happen? People won’t go there just to eat; it will be for another activity too. With Amazon and online retailers becoming more popular will shopping centre increase or decrease in popularity? They keep evolving so landlords will have to also in order to last the course. Restaurant operator For everyday functional shopping or leisure trips, convenience is key and goods purchased are typically essential and bought frequently, with ‘value’ being important both in terms of price point and service experience. For destination trips, time is less critical than the overall experience received, which allows for browsing and comparison of goods, services, or experiences. Visitation is less frequent and consumers are typically prepared to purchase higher-end goods or spend more on eating out. Applying this principal to different leisure sectors there is a strong relationship with convenient functional trips when visiting grocery stores, retail services (e.g. banks) and leisure centres; the rise of the convenience grocery market in recent years shows how consumers are less willing to travel to a large store if they can purchase essentials more locally. For coffee shops and gyms, the choice of location is likely to be dictated by the supply being in close proximity to the demand. By comparison, specialist shopping trips, such as for fashion goods or department stores, tend to require a longer time commitment and travel distance and will often be linked to visiting restaurants, or other leisure uses. The divide is not always clear by a specific sector. Branded restaurants tend to locate where there is a regional catchment, such as large retail or leisure schemes, city centres that also have a large employment base, or close to other big leisure draws like museums, music/theatre venues, or ski slopes. By contrast independent restaurants predominantly serve a local audience. In addition, with increased constraints on our time, there is a blending of ‘day parts’, with closer ties between our work, social and home lives. Leisure operators are adapting their offer to capture consumers where it is most convenient for them. For H&F this is around high footfall employment locations, or transport hubs; for restaurants and pubs this might include boosting the breakfast offer, or for cinemas providing alternative uses to their venues outside of peak times. Whatever the time of day, situation or location, the three most important things to the consumer that embody every leisure visit are convenience, experience and service. These are closely intertwined factors, however, if any of them fail then the chance of a repeat visit is significantly reduced. Polarisation of consumer journeys Source: Savills Different retail and leisure journeys by sector Source: Savills After a cinema visit, 22% of audiences go for a meal and/or drink, 14% visit a fast food restaurant or café and 9% go shopping. UK Cinema Association
  16. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 London Rest of the UK Local high street Local shopping centre City/large town centre Out of town mall Retail park Leisure scheme £23 £24 £27 £29 £31 £27 £16 £17 £20 £21 £22 £21 £0 £5 £10 £15 £20 £25 £30 £35 London Rest of the UK Local high street Local shopping centre City/large town centre Out of town mall Retail park Leisure scheme 25 26 The importance of a diverse F&B offer on the overall attractiveness of a retail location is most highly rated among young people. Generation Z (16-24 year olds) and Generation Y (25-34 year olds) rated choice of restaurants as 6.1 and 6.4 out of 10 respectively (where 10 is very important) in determining where to shop for fashion, compared to an average of 4.9 across all age groups.    This trend is even more pronounced in London, where the importance of F&B offer in choosing where to shop was rated as 7.2 by Generation Y and 6.2 by Generation Z. Across all age groups, the average importance rating was also highest in London at 6.1, followed by 5.0 in both Yorkshire & the Humber and the North East.      Consumer visitation and spend2 . The less frequently a consumer shops, the more likely they are to visit a F&B operator on that trip. An average of 73.2% of consumers who shop every two weeks visit a food outlet, dropping to just 31.9% for those who shop at least once a week. Frequency of eating out while shopping also varies by geography and age group, and is highest among younger consumers. 17.8% of Generation Z eat out while shopping once a week, compared to 11.1% for the Baby Boomer+ group (55+ years). Again, this disparity is more prominent in London, where 27.8% of Generation Z and 8.9% of Baby Boomer+ visit a restaurant while shopping once a week. In terms of locations that people visit for leisure experiences, consumers visit the local high street most often followed by local shopping centres and town centres. Many of these trips will be driven, in part, by convenience. Out-of-town regional malls are more of a destination so their visitation is much lower than the high street. The most pronounced difference between the capital and rest of the country is with visitation to regional malls and leisure schemes. London consumers, on average, visit these locations twice as frequently as the rest of the country. The culture of casual dining in particular has been long embedded in Central London on the back of both a constant stream of affluent white-collar workers aged 25-34 with few family commitments, and a thriving tourism economy. Outside of London, town centre shopping centres and leisure schemes have been the primary access that diners have had to these brands. In both cases dining would often only form part of the overall evening’s entertainment, either being tied with a visit to the cinema, or other drinking establishments. Increasingly the visit would be also closely related to place of work, a shopping trip or other social engagement, which points to the increasing importance of non-leisure specific properties fulfilling the demand for leisure experiences. Frequency of eating out weekly is at a 4 year high for 18-44 year olds. CGA Average visitation per month Source: Savills/GlobalData 2 The findings in this chapter are based on GlobalData survey conducted in 2017 from 8,000 consumers. However, while there is a difference with London there are still high levels of visitation to leisure schemes and shopping centres across the country for leisure experiences. This possibly reflects similar drivers for visiting these easily accessed locations and a need for convenience that is universal. Certainly, the UK appetite for dining out is catching up with London, first with the major city centres and affluent market towns, but gradually many casual dining brands will find success in smaller less affluent locations. Much in the way that the coffee revolution has become embedded in the fabric of UK society, we foresee casual dining to be much more prevalent a dining format across the country. F&B spend varies by location type with the broad profile between London and the rest of the UK being similar. However, actual spend levels in London are ahead of the rest of the UK with an average of £7.30 more spent per visit than the rest of the country. The differences are closely tied to the overall leisure experience being made with F&B experiences in convenience driven centres and high streets related to more affordable quick service restaurants and coffee shops, while in more leisure orientated destinations spend is often linked directly with a casual dining offer. There are differences in F&B spending between London and rest of UK for different age groups. 25-34-year-old Londoners spend £8.70 more in local shopping centres. Millennial/family demographics spend £6 more in large centres and malls in London and £3.50 more in retail parks. 45-55-year- old consumers in London spend on average £10 more in retail parks than consumers outside the capital. However, London does not have higher spending in all categories. Older consumers appear to have stronger spending habits outside of London, with 55-64 year olds spending less in London in local high street and shopping centres, and leisure schemes, while 65+ year consumers outside London spend more in shopping centres and leisure schemes. This is likely to be related to the affluence of older people that live in London. Average F&B spend by location type Source: Savills/GlobalData
  17. -£6.00 -£4.00 -£2.00 £0.00 £2.00 £4.00 £6.00 £8.00 £10.00 £12.00 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Local high street Local shopping centre City/large town centre Out of town mall Retail park Leisure scheme Almost all the time (90% - 100% of the time) Most of the time (60% - 90% of the time) Sometimes (30% - 60% of the time) Rarely (5% - 30% of the time) Almost never (less than 5% of the time) Local high street Local shopping centre City/large town centre Out of town mall Retail park Leisure scheme £0.00 £5.00 £10.00 £15.00 £20.00 £25.00 £30.00 £35.00 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 27 28 In terms of the frequency of visits, the general trend is similar across all location types and is perhaps surprising that the most frequent visitors to F&B spend more on average than those that only visit F&B outlet occasionally. This points to first, that if 50% of visits are made by 20% of consumers and second, this group spends more than less frequent consumers, it is fundamental to figure out how to best capture this group and how to ensure they remain brand loyal. Difference in F&B visit spend between London and rest of the country Source: Savills/GlobalData Restaurant spend by frequency when visiting retail or leisure scheme Source: Savills/GlobalData Brand loyalty is becoming polarised within different leisure sectors. For cinema and H&F, consumers remain loyal to their preferred brands and locations. For the F&B sector, however, it is a challenge. The more mature and varied the offer becomes, the more consumers expect in return and the more pressure there is on operators to pull in returning customers and hold market share. This is forcing the industry to become more efficient and of higher quality, which is good for the customer experience and yet consumers show signs of becoming increasingly brand agnostic and are often looking for a new or a better experience. Brand loyalty. The number of brands visited has increased from 2.4 in April 2014 to 2.9 by October 2017. In London this trend is higher; 51% of all branded outlets that London consumers visit every six months are brands that they have not visited previously4 . This indicates both the increase in supply and the eagerness of consumers to try out new brands and formats. It is also important that operators do not confuse habit with loyalty – repeat customers may be driven by other factors such as convenience and so are still prone to defection as new offers emerge. It is important to note that 20% of consumers make up half of eating occasions and this is often led by the Millennial group that is often on the top of the agenda as the most important consumer group for F&B growth, particularly in London. While Millennials might lead the way with some brands, having family appeal and attracting the UK’s largest consumer group, is a key target for the sector. As the market has grown more families are being drawn to the sector and there has become an increased expectation for experience, value, quality and adventure in order to differentiate the brands. Loyalty can still be retained by brands with an affordable and reliable concept. Pizza Express and Nando’s success is as much to do with consistency of product and service and a clean and fresh environment, which particularly suits families who want to know what to expect before they arrive. In delivering these requirements, casual dining has in effect made it more attractive and affordable for families to dine out. However, there is a further challenge for operators in drawing in customers who have an ever-increasing choice of places to eat. The average number of meals had out per month has fallen from 10 to 9 and 53% of business leaders predict a fall in visit frequency5 . This means that there are fewer available visits to capture, by a larger supply of locations. In the short term at least, F&B operators are going to have to work much harder for their market share through operational efficiency and often through the adoption of technology and more streamlined marketing. 4 Source: CGA 5 Source: MCA/CGA Number of brands visited each month Source: CGA
  18. 3029 Futurologists speculate that almost all new developments that impact on business and consumers will be based on some form of technology. The role of technology. It is clear that tech plays an increasing role in the consumer experience, whether in getting them in the front door, servicing or entertaining them while inside, or helping them to share their experiences with others. Tom Whittington, Director Retail Research, Savills Technology is increasingly important not just in retail but also in leisure. There are a wide range of technologies that have been launched or are in development – from basic apps through to robotic chefs. At present, few technological developments can be described as truly disruptive for the leisure industry. Rather, there is a broad range of uses for tech that are providing incremental benefits. The most significant enabler of tech is undoubtedly the smartphone. Without the advancement of this technology online bookings, social media engagement, mobile payments and delivery services would never have been able to play as significant a role. Existing technology can be characterised as falling into one of two categories: • Tech that enhances the customer experience • Tech that provides operational benefits For landlords the significance of tech is around how consumers can be drawn to, engaged and serviced within their schemes and how operators, through increased efficiencies, can have more sustainable businesses and provide robust occupational and rental incomes. As yet few technological developments will significantly alter the future need for property configurations or store sizes, with the obvious exception of delivery apps. Case study: VR Star, Cabot Circus, Bristol VR Star offer driving simulators, shoot em’ ups and other arcade games in a VR setting. Opened in Bristol in March 2018 its first 6 weeks saw 4,000 visitors each paying £30 per hour. The brand has four more venues planned in Cardiff, Manchester, Leeds and Swindon, with a total of 60 locations planned. As a destination they have taken a ‘low footfall’ unit at Cabot’s helping optimise space utilisation for the landlord. Other VR providers like DNA-VR, VR Champions, and Limitless VR in London offer group games, challenges and puzzles for up to six players. Tech is being used to increase convenience, enrich the experience and deliver improved service. Consumers are seeking ‘on demand’ experiences – “when, where and how I want it”. This is leading to operators adopting technology to deliver experiences that reduce ‘friction’ while the process in making the offer flexible enough to respond to consumer demands and with sufficient appeal to create a differentiated offer. For F&B, simplifying the booking, ordering and payment process through tech is a key benefit. Technology for customer experience. Delivery and technology go hand in hand. It’s a high impact area and it’s important to get it right. It goes back to the convenience aspect, whether it’s paying via phone, the EPOS system on the till all to speed up payment so you don’t have to queue as long. All of this is relevant to us today more so in F&B than retail, where customers are looking for a quick convenience led transaction. Restaurant operator Efficiency and convenience of experience. Booking and ordering via smartphones can significantly enhance the overall experience of time poor consumers. Just under a third of consumers under 35 years of age will book a table in advance. Significantly, 72% of these people will use the restaurant’s own website to book and 52% will access the site using a mobile device 1 . F&B operators are benefiting from the use of technology in the ordering process. McDonald’s reported a 5% uplift in sales following the addition of customer ordering kiosks. Table top tech in casual dining brands increases average spend by £2.60 per person and delivers 20% more sales of starters and dessert. However, some casual dining brands are limiting the ability to order across the menu (especially main courses) to retain some degree of social interaction with their staff. Functionality to enable payment has been added to restaurant apps. Wagamama and MasterCard have introduced payment on demand via the Wagamamago app. They claim that using the app for payment saves diners 12 minutes in total, both for the bill and then for a card payment machine to be available. Tablets on tables are also being used for payment – total dining time is reduced by 31% and speeding up the payment process leads to increased customer satisfaction. It also allows operators to turn covers more quickly thereby generating increased revenue. This technology is significant in that all good operators need to now account for an element of mobile connectivity. 90% of restaurant brands already have contactless payment. However, with 40% already allowing for this to be made using a mobile device and a further 21% planning to implement this functionality in 2018, the connection between a restaurant space and their consumers, wherever they might be located, is becoming more integrated. 1 Source: CGA
  19. 90% 48% 40% 35% 27% 23% 18% 6% 21% 21% 22% 33% 28% 23% 4% 32% 39% 42% 41% 49% 59% Contactless payments Ability for consumers to split bills Pay via phone Technology to place orders More ways to pay Pay via app Order via app Already implemented Planning on implementing in 2018 Not implemented/not planning on implementing in 2018 31 32 29% of consumers have used a mobile device to either order or pay for food or drink. CGA Social media. The importance of social media as a tool for communication with consumers is widely recognised. Brands have been able to use social media listening to gain feedback on their offer as well as using direct interactions with customers. With customers so keen to share their experiences on social media or be influenced by it, a positive experience is equivalent to free marketing. As a consequence, many operators are investing heavily in it. The rise of ‘Instagram culture’ is presenting opportunities to attract customers directly. Social media, especially Instagram, is an important means of sharing experiences. 52% of 18-34-year-olds have uploaded images of a meal or drink to social media. The challenge for operators is to ensure their food and drink is presented in an appealing manner while highlighting key brand messages. The appearance of uploaded food images is being taken very seriously by some outlets - Ikoyi London has lighting set up to highlight the food on the table, thereby optimising picture quality. Dirty Bones encourages its customers to upload images and has even developed an ‘Instagram kit’ to help diners take the perfect picture of their food. There are countless interesting developments like this across the globe, however it is very much in an experimentation phase. Technology provides an opportunity in making customer ordering easier and more user friendly. What advancements in technology have you already implemented or are you planning on implementing in 2018? Source: CGA * The chart does not show all the options Entertainment experiences and Virtual Reality. For leisure operators, technology provides a means of attracting consumers out of their home for a superior experience in their venue, with affordability of new technology often being a barrier to in-home adoption. There is a wide range of tech designed to enhance the customer experience. Tech is being used to add a modern spin to traditional activities and plays an important role in many competitive socialising outfits. Bounce describes itself as Europe’s largest ‘Social Ping Pong Club ‘, where people can dine, drink and play table tennis. The tables use ‘wonderball’ technology so that they become interactive surfaces allowing a range of games to be played as well as controlling the experience. Flyte Club uses tech in a similar manner to enhance and socialise the game of darts. Clubs such as Rebel Bingo and Bongo’s Bingo use technology to fuse playing bingo with a nightclub atmosphere of live music and dancing. Tech is also playing a key role in enhancing existing customer experiences. 4D cinema takes three-dimensional projection and adds movement to the environment – typically using moving seats. 5D cinema adds live special effects such as smoke and water mist. Interactive tables are being used to enhance the dining experience. Inamo London has interactive tables so diners can select lighting effects to change the ambience and suit their mood. They can also use the table to play games, find out local neighbourhood information or watch a live feed ‘chef cam’ that brings them action from the kitchen direct to their table. VR is widely anticipated as the next big disruptor for the leisure and entertainment industry. Improvements in the technology used to deliver VR are making highly realistic and immersive experiences possible. However, this tech remains at a cost that is too high for most private consumers. This price barrier presents leisure operators with an opportunity to lure consumers out of their homes and into their venues. While the quality of VR continues to improve, there is still limited adoption of it within the market. At their Westgate Oxford cinema, Curzon have curated special VR events for an invited audience who are encouraged to socialise and share the VR experience afterwards. Odeon opened its first VR- Imax at the Trafford Centre in Manchester in late 2017. There are several ‘fully immersive’ VR arcades open in the UK, including DNA-VR, VR Champions, and Limitless VR in London, VR Star in Bristol and Virtual X in Birmingham. These operations typically offer multiple games, ‘escape rooms’ and experiences for up to six players. There are more operations planned, however, ownership is fragmented with no clear brands to date. Like much of the competitive socialising sector, VR-arcades have destination appeal, do not typically need to be in prime locations and can take units that might be compromised for other leisure (or retail) uses. This presents an opportunity for landlords who want to improve the appeal to their schemes and optimise use of space. VR has been slow to develop over two decades, during which time there have been several technological revolutions that have been far more significant. While gaining some traction VR is not yet a disruptor and as such seems limited to niche applications across the leisure market for the near future. VR is on everyone’s radar. We’ve been to Japan and looked at VR and some of it is fantastic. But it’s an experience not a game. So, as an adult, you’d look at it and think it was a cool experience, but given that the ending is always the same why would you do it again? Laurence Keen, CFO, Hollywood Bowl
  20. 3433 With limited store portfolio growth in the short term and other headwinds compounding already tight margins, operational efficiency is key to the sustainability and growth of leisure operators, particularly in F&B. Technology is becoming increasingly accessible, allowing operators to adopt sophisticated business management systems that can deliver real improvements in terms of: • loyalty, promotions and marketing • customer feedback • enhanced asset utilisation • delivery logistics Some of these developments are making a real difference to operational efficiency, which is key to long term sustainability of businesses and should therefore also be on the radar of landlords. In particular, the data captured by operators could also be invaluable to landlords who could use the intelligence gathered to better understand the demographics, footfall and spend profiles of their schemes at different points in the day. Loyalty and promotions. With the current consumer obsession with mobile apps it is no surprise that leisure operators are keen to use these to engage more with their customers, and improve loyalty and frequency. Branded apps for booking, ordering or paying are helping some brands to increase footfall. It is no longer necessary to develop entirely bespoke branded apps as there are companies providing this facility more affordably. Como is a provider of branded mobile apps that integrate loyalty and promotions. This enables operators to engage with customers across multiple communication channels. They claim an impressive 48% uplift in purchase frequency and 41% increase in monthly spend for customers using their solutions. Improving customer satisfaction and experience. Technology is enabling businesses to engage more closely with their customers. Operators often rely on customer comments on review sites as a means of feedback and promotion of their business and consumers are quick to select an experience based on these reviews. However, review and booking websites can lack transparency when listing choices to consumers and may be determined by the amount an operator is willing to pay, as well as often only highlighting the best and worst experiences. Technology for operational benefits. Increasingly, technological solutions are allowing restaurants to capture customer views in the moment. These views are likely to be more honest and reflective of the actual experience. For example, Yumpingo have developed a solution that is in capturing consumer data at point of sale. The upshot for the operator is twofold: • First, they can build up an operational profile for the manager or business leaders on what is working or failing. The operator can spot common issues and measure their improvements over time. Harvester has stated that using this app they have captured an average 2,200 dish reviews and 3,500 service reviews per month per venue, which provides them with an unprecedented level of information they can act upon. • Secondly, by capturing customer contact data at the point of sale and with their preferences, they can understand better the demographic of their visitors, tailor marketing campaigns and have the potential to personalise a visit when a customer returns. Enhanced asset utilisation. Managing demand can be a challenge for leisure operators. Leisure units that are groaning under the weight of customers at peak periods are often nearly empty at other day parts. Smoothing out demand throughout the day has clear benefits in terms of allocating resources and utilising space effectively. Hollywood Bowl runs 58 bowling centres that typically occupy 30,000 sq ft of space. It has invested heavily in CRM systems so it now has sufficient data to introduce dynamic pricing – prices vary according to the number of people wanting to bowl at a particular time. This demand-led approach allows for more accurate pricing by matching actual demand with availability. Another benefit of dynamic pricing and serum data is in the area of promotions; targeting customers on the basis of their previous behaviour. On average, consumers go bowling less than twice a year – targeted promotions with prices designed to appeal to individual customers are driving visit frequency upwards. The introduction of food delivery services such as Deliveroo and Uber Eats is one of the most impactful developments for the restaurant sector in recent years, effecting consumers and operators in very different ways. For consumers there are significant benefits to be able to access a vast array of hot food outlets, while for operators there are both potential benefits and exceptional challenges in fulfilling this demand. There is little doubt that this technology is proving to be a remarkable market disruptor. The UK delivery market was worth a total of £6.7 billion in 2017 and is forecast to grow even further with predicted revenues of £7.5 billion for 2018; Deliveroo alone saw its sales increase by 600% in 2016. According to Pragma, 54% of the UK population have used a delivery platform when ordering a takeaway in the past 12 months – 83% in London. Millennials are particularly heavy users of delivery services (sometimes ordering two to three times a week) and this group tends to be relatively insensitive to price. Delivery services are bringing something new to the market that goes beyond traditional delivery. They are offering a full logistics service from ordering through to fulfilment, which is something that has been tried in the past by restaurant operators but with limited success. Both Pizza Express and Wagamama have tried to introduce their own delivery services, only to withdraw them when the F&B and delivery. logistics proved too challenging. 3POS have developed their own tech infrastructure that provides a consumer-friendly app and order management system at an affordable development cost to the operator. However, as restaurants have to provide their own delivery mechanism many restaurants will lack the critical mass of orders to justify hiring their own drivers. The benefits to operators include extended trading hours during the whole week, increased sales potential and a new customer base. Many Grab and Go operators in London that would previously have closed after working hours are now able to sustain evening trade. pre 1999 Ad-hoc delivery from local takeaway 1999 Domino’s launches online ordering 1999 Domino’s launches online ordering 2001 JustEat launches as ‘menu aggregator’ 2011 Domino’s launches delivery app 2013 Deliveroo launches in UK 2016 Uber Eats launches in UK 2018 Deliveroo YOY revenue growth of 600% We’re making a conscious decision to have restaurants with two accesses. Having a busy restaurant and a queue of cyclists coming out the door doesn’t work well with our customers. We want the eat in experience to be perfect. Restaurant operator
  21. 35 36 However, there remain many operation challenges to incorporating a delivery service to the offer, including: • Cannibalisation. Many local operators are concerned that they now compete with operators from further afield. • Costs. Deliveroo charges restaurant operators commission of 25% to 30% of the order value. This significantly impacts the return for each item sold and while some operators are seeing a significant increase in volume, operational efficiency is reduced. • High demand for kitchen space during peak hours. A further challenge is meeting demand, especially at peak periods. Some units are operating well in excess of the original intended capacity. This creates problems for some operators so that they have to ‘switch off’ delivery to avoid harming the eat-in customer experience. Wagamama have introduced a separate counter and waiting area for deliveries. Others are considering separate entrances for delivery when planning future premises. • Quality of dining experience. Customers complain of long waiting times in restaurants while the operator fulfils takeaway orders, or the restaurant ambiance is reduced by an influx of delivery drivers. • Lack of transparency with feedback. A perceived lack of transparency does not help allay operators concerns. Deliveroo has been criticised by operators for not sharing the customer data they collect, which prevents operators making improvements to their offer or learning what made or broke an experience. Overall, the sentiment within the industry towards delivery is either positive, or resigned acceptance. Operators recognise that there are challenges that require them to change their business model and operations or be left behind. Whatever shape the future business models of delivery operators take, it seems certain that delivery is here to stay. Those F&B operators with the ability to flex and adapt to meet the challenges posed by delivery look likely to prosper from the opportunities that it presents. For landlords, the growth in this sector is likely to result in new occupants rethinking their space and configuration requirements and appropriate access for drivers. Delivery is growing quickly and it is absolutely, 100% cannibalising restaurant sales. Whatever way you look at it; it is taking margin out of restaurants. A lot of places I’m talking to tell me they are flat in terms of sales growth because of delivery, and delivery might be 10- 15% of their business. Morgan Davies, CEO, Barburrito The evolving place of leisure in customers’ lives will affect different centres in different ways. The leisure industry is so diverse that there is not one approach that fits all. However, in the quest to match the right operator, in the right location, with the right lease structure, what is common for both landlord and operator is the need for flexibility, a response to changing customer requirements and to customer feedback. Looking forward: considerations and responses.
  22. 37 38 Case study: 12th Street, Milton Keynes When leisure specialist, Otium Real Estate bought 12th Street in Milton Keynes (previously known as the Theatre District) in July 2016, the scheme was in a poor physical state, had high voids and lacked a clear identity, as it failed to adjust to an evolving market. The scheme is nearing the end of a major transformation following some imaginative thinking around identity, variety and a letting strategy that focuses on affordable rents and space optimisation. To date, Otium have refurbished the scheme completely and done seven different non-F&B leisure lettings before doing a restaurant letting, including urban golf, a desert parlour, escape rooms, a microbrewery, a virtual reality/gaming centre and kids play operator, several of which are not interested in prime ground floor space and need large floor plates. The occupier mix provides a clear point of difference with other leisure schemes in Milton Keynes and has increased footfall and sales throughout the scheme with the new occupiers acting as ‘mini-anchor’ occupiers. Existing occupiers are now extending leases and reinvesting in their space. Otium bought the scheme at rent levels that allows it to offer sensible sustainable lease arrangements to its occupiers. While clearly not a model feasible in all locations, this demonstrates that occupational demand can be found in surprising places when the opportunity, location and affordability are right. The relationship between retail and leisure will become increasingly symbiotic, with mixed use increasingly important. Leisure can extend the duration of retail trips, as well as opening different parts of the trading day. New leisure openings can create a sense of novelty and buzz and introduce the new experiences that customers are looking for. Greater synergy between leisure and retail has the potential to develop even more memorable and engaging places and deliver further improvements in footfall and repeat visits. Cinemas have been at the centre of urban regeneration projects for some time, often local authority backed, creating a night time economy and drawing in new visitors. They are not though the solution for all and success means understanding how much leisure any one area can support. Large format cinemas have worked well as scheme anchors, with a business model of five or more supporting F&B outlets. In some instances, lower rents are paid by cinema operators, with a consequent impact on rental income. F&B operators may have paid higher rents to make the proposition more viable, but this may not be sustainable in the future. However, in the current climate many F&B operators are more cautious about opening new sites. This situation does increase the appeal of boutique cinema operators and it is expected that this format will continue to expand as a consequence. Space and location. Case study: Westgate, Oxford Counter to challenges in both the retail and F&B markets, Landsec’s Westgate opened its doors in late-2017. The scheme is a classic example of a prime city centre shopping centre with a comprehensive fashion led retail mix anchored by John Lewis and complimented by a strong food & beverage offering of 30 F&B vendors and a boutique cinema. The scheme stands out for the quality of the F&B offer. Westgate Social on the lower ground floor offers a shopping centre food court environment, except none of the usual fast food brands are present and instead there is an array of quick service street food style operations, flanked by Junkyard Golf. The rooftop terrace has ten casual dining and bar brands that have been selected to provide minimal overlap in terms of offer and anchored by Curzon cinema. The real point of difference is the outward looking vista over the rooftops and spires of Oxford, which is unique in the UK. Westgate’s leisure offer is a fantastic and prominent example of a scheme developed during a period of significant sector challenges and with its target market of affluent resident, tourist and student populations in mind. It would be difficult however to replicate the scale of offer in many other places in the UK.
  23. 39 40 The H&F sector has shown rapid growth at both the premium and economy ends of the market. The gym business model has seen a diversification from large standalone units that require a dedicated trip. Smaller units in higher footfall locations are seeing growth. They offer scope for no-frills gyms for budget operators – such as easyGym – and also the more inclusive, intimate space for higher end customers seeking a more indulgent experience, such as F45 Training. Creating communities and socialising is part of the offer from new gyms that is supported by smaller sized units, less than 5,000 sq ft. Given this, they can occupy spaces previously used for retail. And while they want footfall, they do not necessarily need prime ground floor locations. Smaller gyms need relatively fewer members to be viable. The last five years have seen very strong growth in the gym market. Memberships went up again last year so despite all the bluster about Brexit and disposable income, the total income gym membership went up and revenues went up number gyms went up, quite incredible that the sector keeps going from strength to strength. Ashley Blake, CEO, Otium Real Estate Ltd. Other leisure operators, including several high-profile F&B brands, are also finding non primary locations more appealing. They have made a conscious decision to trade off the reduced footfall of such locations against lower rental charges. This allows them to invest more in the overall experience; in this creating value that drives repeat visits. Several competitive socialising brands are also using these locations, with consequently lower rents. They view themselves as a destination in their own right; proximity to a high footfall location is enough. If you look at some of the brands that have done well, like Loungers and Turtle Bay, they turned their back on those prime rents, they said, ‘I’m never going to pay those rents. I would rather do a slightly less turnover around the corner where you can’t see me and pay half the rent. I’ll do 30% less turnover than you, because I’m not in this high-profile situation but I’ll pay less than half the rent of you. And overall, I’ll make more profit.’ And those are the ones that are doing well now. David Bell and Carlene Hughes, Savills I think the days of upward only rent reviews are numbered given where the market is. I would welcome leases linked to CPI or RPI. From an operating business point of view, I will be increasingly looking for that, I think landlords might welcome them too. We have a few leases that are inflation linked and make it easier to budget. Restaurant operator The demand for space in recent years has often outstripped supply, especially in prime locations that are suitable and affordable for operators. Competition for space has led to some instances where F&B operators are paying rents equivalent to retail. However, in the new challenges facing the market, both landlord and operator are looking at what adjustments are required to secure a sustainable future. The case studies in Milton Keynes and Oxford, both show in their different ways, successful responses to a changing environment. A wider range of lease structures are another likely response, to reflect the different needs of different operators, and evolved through closer co-operation between landlord and occupier. The re-evaluation of the existing leasing model might be another response in a challenging environment. There needs to be alternative approaches. It should not be surprising that operators run into difficulties when the market becomes saturated or other costs increase, if they had expanded quickly almost regardless of cost. Private equity firms have been criticised for the tranche of CVAs in 2018, however, these companies have also provided the footing for growing the casual dining sector, which enriched environment. The competition and upward pressure on rental levels has led to some leisure occupiers paying high rental values. In some cases, the unsustainable rents might need adjustment. Lease structures and rental levels. For conventional lease agreement there is some increasing use of rent reviews that incorporate some form of index linking. Occupiers find that linking rents to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Retail Price Index (RPI) provides them with a greater ability to forecast in the medium term. Usually these linked rents are based on a “collar and cap” arrangement. In general, rent reviews take place every five years during a tenancy.
  24. 41 42 Turnover rents have become more common for some F&B operators and landlords, with one landlord stating that 90% of their leisure leases are turnover based. With the base rent discounted, but with an element of top-up on reaching performance thresholds, these are favoured by some because they provide a degree of reassurance during the critical first few years of operation and help landlords attract occupiers. They allow landlords to monitor occupier performance regularly and spot emerging issues. We also have a few turnover rents – they can de-risk the store in its early days until we know what it can do. No- one minds if we are generating lots of revenue we are happy to pay more rent and turnover leases are a very good way to do that. Restaurant operator With the leisure market in a state of flux both landlord and occupier seem nervous in many instances about taking long leases. However, changing to shorter leases does not always suit both parties. For landlords there are development costs to recoup, security of income and ultimately valuation concerns, balanced with the flexibility to keep the offer fresh and dynamic. For occupiers, particularly newcomers, there is recovering fit-out costs and insecurity of tenure, against being committed to long leases. Cinemas have significant fit out costs and it is not uncommon for these to exceed £3 million. Consequently, cinema operators want to amortise these costs over as long a period as possible, with 20-25 year leases remaining commonplace. F&B operators will typically spend around £500,000 to £1 million depending on their size and geographic location. They may therefore seek a 15-year tenancy with the intention of recovering their fit-out costs over the first half of that lease. There is the concern among some operators that response may be to reduce lease terms in order to have more control on the occupier mix. While it is not anticipated that the lease duration will change in the short term, both parties will continue to make use of break clauses. Landlords are re-thinking their space and considering the evolution of the centre. In some, this might see a portion of retail and leisure space being repurposed, much in the way that we have seen shops and banks being converted into F&B outlets in recent years. Flexibility is an important part of the solution, but it is not always easy to implement. It requires close asset management, creativity and often a step away from traditional tenant portfolios, leases and approach to valuation and rents. Flexibility of tenant mix can attract footfall throughout all the different parts of the day. There is a growing trend for customers to combine activities traditionally conducted in separate day parts. Extended opening hours will be required so that they can deliver quality experience on demand, at a time of the customers choosing. Leisure has the potential to fill empty units but tactical fixes are likely only to be short term. Sustainable solutions will come through careful consideration of the demographic and behavioural profiles of customers in a particular catchment area. The future is finely tuned. It is unlikely that a single “one size fits all” solution will be found to fill empty space, or that one strategy will be suitable for a portfolio of properties. New types of occupier are being sought, with some elements of a scheme adapted for offices or residential occupiers. Other parts may be converted into curated open spaces in the continual search for different experiences, repeat and new visits. New strategies will evolve in response to careful consideration of the role and purpose of the centre in any community; small or large, local or regional. Flexibility of approach. Asset managers that specialise in leisure are used to that, these covenants are weak, they’re emerging companies. If you’re a good leisure asset manager you know your cinema, bowling and restaurant tenants will be strong covenants, rarely will the facias change. There are other areas of leisure that are interchangeable like trampolines, soft play and gyms have a shorter life cycle. If you have a problem unit like a former nightclub or a casino unit, these are fantastic at plugging that gap and helping to rejuvenate a scheme that hasn’t seen too much footfall in the past. Leisure operator In retail we have witnessed a polarised market where convenience and individuality are becoming increasingly important in defining what happens in the space. This is just as important in leisure. The boom in some sectors is having a strong and positive influence from independents on the back of a young and thriving consumer- come-entrepreneur. From the branded coffee boom, Artisan coffee houses are returning; from the rise in casual dining, ethnic and healthy food is on the rise from independents and street food markets. And the growth in H&F is seeing a number of unique and boutique style gyms. This rise of the independent is one of the positive stories of leisure that will make its mark over the next few years and with it, the opportunity to revitalise schemes and provide a point of difference. Less homogeneous schemes with a higher proportion of independents mean bigger risks for landlords, with challenges to valuation and occupiers perceived to have weaker covenants. However, there are clear signs that the lack of uniform is exactly what appeals to many consumers and that this variety will be the shape of things to come.
  25. 43 44 A mixed methodology was adopted in order to address the project objectives. A detailed secondary desk research using a range of sources was conducted. This was supplemented by a series of one-to-one consultations, mostly face-to-face with a range of key figures within the industry in order to develop the thought leadership strand within the project on attitudes and behaviour both now and going forwards. Savills and Aspect undertook a total of 14 formal consultations took place during January to April 2018, along with many more informal consultations at industry events such as Casual Dining 2018 and The UK Cinema Association 2018 conference. Respondents represented landlords, restaurant operators and leisure operators. As part of the assessment of the leisure market across the UK 7,000 different retail places have been assessed, including 4,761 high streets (town and city centres), 1,126 shopping centres and 1,100 retail/shopping parks and leisure schemes. Within these locations Savills has drawn on Retail Universe data (a database of all retail and leisure brands nationally) for an assessment of past, current and growth of brands by leisure sub-sector. GOAD data have been used to assess planning designations and change of use, as well as to provide an assessment of floorspace usage. Some insights have been gained on how frequently consumers visit restaurants at different kinds of retail and leisure places and how spending levels vary by location from a GlobalData survey conducted in 2017 from 8,000 UK consumers. For this report, data has been extracted from the survey related to frequency of visit and levels of spend related to different kinds of retail and leisure destination. This survey asked consumers about their visits to six location types as follows: • local high street • local shopping centre • city/large town centre • out-of-town mall • retail park • leisure scheme Methodology. A1 Shops which are used for all or any of the following purposes: (a) for the retail sale of goods other than hot food (b) as a post office (c) for the sale of tickets or as a travel agency (d) for the sale of sandwiches or other cold food for consumption off the premises (e) for hairdressing (f) for the direction of funerals (g) for the display of goods for sale (h) for the hiring out of domestic or personal goods or articles (i) for the reception of goods to be washed, cleaned or repaired where the sale, display or service is to visiting members of the public. A2 Financial and professional services with use for the provision of: (a) financial services, or (b) professional services (other than health or medical services), or (c) any other services (including use as a betting office) which it is appropriate to provide in a shopping area, where the services are provided principally to visiting members of the public. A3 Food and drink for the sale of food or drink for consumption on the premises or of hot food for consumption off the premises. A4 Drinking establishments such as public houses, wine bars or other such establishments. A5 Hot food and takeaway for the sale of hot food consumption intended for consumption off the premises. D2 D2 Assembly and leisure - cinemas, music and concert halls, bingo and dance halls (but not night clubs), swimming baths, skating rinks, gymnasiums or area for indoor or outdoor sports and recreations (except for motor sports, or where firearms are used). Non-traditional D2 Unofficial planning category covering emerging leisure formats including those designed for competitive socialising. Competitive socialising Competitive socialising is an emerging part of the leisure industry driven by consumer demand for new, innovative forms of entertainment. The concept of competitive socialising is based upon the combination of socialising and competition, typically within the environment of a bar, or a club. F&B Abbreviation for food and beverage - food and beverage can be defined as the process of preparing, presenting and serving of food and drinks to the customers. While it can include off-premises or outdoor catering we are using the term to food prepared on premises and then either served on premises or delivered to consumers. H&F Abbreviation for health and fitness – any premises that are designed to maintain and enhance the physical and mental health of the individual. In property terms, this will often refer to gyms but there is an emerging sector of general ‘wellness’ centres that may include spaces for meditation, massage and relaxation/ pampering. Definitions.
  26. Revo Charter House, 13-15 Carteret Street Westminster, London SW1H 9DJ hello@revocommunity.org revocommunity.org DAC Beachcroft 100 Fetter Lane, London, EC4A 1BN dacbeachcroft.com
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