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Beware Agile is manipulating you

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Slides of the presentation done in XP days benelux 2014,
We are not a rational device, hopefully agile is playing on our irrationality (for the best?)
Let’s play some quizzes, and discover some psychological surveys conducted by major psychologists, that illustrate how we can be “predictability irrational”. You will get some insights about how Agile is playing with it, how the agile practices are activating our irrational behaviors.

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Beware Agile is manipulating you

  1. 1. BEWARE AGILE IS MANIPULATING YOU!!! Introduction to behavioral economy & its Pierre Hervouet application in Agile @agilelebanon #XPDAYSBENE
  2. 2. Before : Financial Controler Since 2009: Agilitator Pierre Hervouet 2009 2001 @agilelebanon
  3. 3. | 3 Agenda  Quizz  Evidence of the Agile practices?  System 1 & System 2  Conclusion
  4. 4. | 4 Quiz
  5. 5. | 5 Quiz / #1 The longest line A B
  6. 6. | 6 Quiz / #2
  7. 7. | 7 Quiz / #3 Mental Calculation If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 shirts, how long would it take 100 machines to make 100 shirts?
  8. 8. | 8 Quiz / #4 Who is Mark? Mark is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but with little interest in people, the world or reality. He spend most part of his free time by reading books. He has a docile and reserved personality . He has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail. Is Mark more likely to a be librarian or a farmer?
  9. 9. | 9 Quiz / #5 Mental Calculation A bat and ball cost 11 Euros, The bat costs 10 euros more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
  10. 10. | 10 Quiz / #6 Mental Calculation In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for a patch to cover half of the lake?
  11. 11. | 11 Quiz / #7 Joe A) Joe seemed to have a good marriage. He killed his wife to get the life insurance. B) Joe seemed to have a good marriage. He killed his wife. What is the most likely sentence?
  12. 12. | 12 Quiz / #8 Hitler A- Adolf Hitler was born in 1892 B- Adolf Hitler was born in 1887 Which one of these two sentences is correct?
  13. 13. | 13 INTRODUCTION
  14. 14. A B
  15. 15. A B
  16. 16. | 16
  17. 17. | 17
  18. 18. | 18
  19. 19. | 19
  20. 20. | 20 Evidence of Agile practices Persona Bionicles Hum Hum The ancor Ikea Effect All of us are dishonest
  21. 21. | 21 Quiz / #3 Mental Calculation Answer: 5 minutes If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 shirts, how long would it take 100 machines to make 100 shirts?
  22. 22. ROKIA
  23. 23. “the death of one is a tragedy the death of millions is a statistic”
  24. 24. Would you like to help Rokia? Zambia 1,000,000 don’t have access to drinking water. We need your help
  25. 25. Would you like to help Rokia? • Rokia is 6 years old • She lives in a small village in Zambia • She doesn’t have access to drinking water, which is making her regularly sick • Rokia needs your help!
  26. 26. Radiologist
  27. 27. End-users
  28. 28. DAVID HELLENE JOHN DAMIEN STEPHANIE CAROLINE ERIK FREDERIC
  29. 29. ROKIA Asking help one particular person, Rokia is more effective than asking for help for a general cause (thousands who do need have access to drinking water) «The identifiable Victim effect »: Rokia has a story | 29 Individual engages emotionally people Having the patient’s photo near the Xray, increases the level of incident findings by 80% Agile Practices: Persona Users story Client proxy Iteration review
  30. 30. | 30 Quiz / #4 Who is Mark? Answer: Farmer Don’t forget demographic Mark is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but with little interest in people, the world or reality. He spend most part of his free time by reading books. He has a docile and reserved personality . He has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail. Is Mark more likely to a be librarian or a farmer?
  31. 31. BIONICLES EXPERIENCE
  32. 32. + + + 3.0$ 2.7$ 2.4$ … 0.3$
  33. 33. 4 = 1.2$ Meaningful Sisyphus Consultant
  34. 34. ET CEUX QUI AIME LES LEGOS?
  35. 35. | 36 BIONICLE EXPERIMENT The neo classical economic theory about motivation says that: We are like laboratory mice in maze looking for tangible rewards such as food…but even mice are looking for meaning. Under estimation of the economic effect of the motivation related to meaning (intrinsic motivation). The impact of demotivation due to the loss of meaning, is more important for those who like their job. Agile Practices: Product Vision Iteration Vision Iteration review
  36. 36. | 37 Quiz / #5 Mental Calculation A bat and ball cost 11 Euros, The bat costs 10 euros more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? Answer: 0.5 Euro
  37. 37. BIONICLE & “HUM, HUM” EXPERIENCES “HUM, HUM” EXPERIMENT
  38. 38. EXPERIMENT SDFJLKGJSFIOUFDASFD JLKJLKJLKJIBJKGASSDF MDFGJAQXLMKLPBSK MCADZERSYBFLFNHS JJAQPWCGVZSFTYELM DHSMKLPBSKMASFDG VZSFTYELMNHS JJAQ PKFLWHZJJAQPWVZSF TYSKMASFCGVZSFTYE NHSQPLMHHSCZXERY • Find the 10 sequences of SS • Digressive payments 0.55$-0.50$-0.45$-…..
  39. 39. 3 CONDITIONS DE L’ETUDE BIONICLE & “HUM, HUM” EXPERIENCES HUM HUM ! INDIFFERENCE SHREDDER PAPER
  40. 40. 9.0 6.3 6.8 Hum Hum Shredder Indifference Feuille = 15cts Feuille = 30cts
  41. 41. | 42 «HUM HUM» EXPERIMENT: MOTIVATION Importance of acknowledgment Do you want to demotivate your team?: Ignore their achievements Indifference leads to the same effect as the paper shredder! From an economical point of view, the cost of acknowledgement is very low Agile practices: • Celebration • Iteration Review
  42. 42. | 43 Quiz / #6 Mental Calculation In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for a patch to cover half of the lake? Answer: 47 days
  43. 43. | 44 The Anchor
  44. 44. Differences between the « Bob’s » estimations et the « Chris’s » estimations
  45. 45. The Anchor When a figure is introduced it becomes the point | 49 of reference Particularly when we don’t have a clear idea about the value The comparison inside the same category is constant Agile Practice: Planning poker
  46. 46. | 50 Quiz / #7 Joe A) Joe seemed to have a good marriage. He killed his wife to get the life insurance. B) Joe seemed to have a good marriage. He killed his wife. Answer: What is the most likely sentence? B
  47. 47. | 51 LE’AFNFCECRTAGE
  48. 48. ORIGAMI EXPERIMENT • Amateur Creator • Professionals • Non- Creator
  49. 49. $0.23 $0.05 $0.27 Amateurs => Amateurs Non Creators => Amateurs Non creator => Prof.
  50. 50. | 54 IKEA EFFECT • We over evaluate what we make • Usually we are not conscious of this factor • The client engagement in the product design can activate the IKEA effect Agile Practices: Involvement of the customers…can activate the IKEA Effect Frequent delivery & feed-back mitigate the IKEA effect
  51. 51. | 55 Quiz / #8 Hitler Adolf Hitler was born in 1892 Adolf Hitler was born in 1887 Which one of these two Answer: sentences is correct? 1889 Just to check the influence of the typography ;-)
  52. 52. | 56 We are all Dishonest L’ANCRAGE You are all Dishonest
  53. 53. | 57 We are all dishonest • Find the pair of numbers with the sum = 10 • Calculate your results • Go to the shredder • Give the result • Get the money
  54. 54. | 58 We are all dishonest Lot of people are cheating Influencing factors  Social proof (+ & -)  Remember regularly the reason to be honest (signing the rules before, remembering the 10 commandments) (-) Agile Practices:  Capability to rationalize our behavior (+) Team rules Stand up meeting Information radiator
  55. 55. | 59 The two systems System 1 Fast Low energy consumption Difficult to rewire Learn by practice Usually in control Emotional System 2 Slow High energy consumption Fast to learn Learn by theory Believe he is in control Logical
  56. 56. Daniel Kahneman
  57. 57. SYSTEM 1 • Fast • Instinctive • Emotional • Low energy consumption • Difficult to rewire • Learn by experience • Is the real person controlling SYSTEM 2 • Slow • Analytical • Logical • High energy consumption • Learn quickly • Theoretical learning • Thinks that he is controlling
  58. 58. | 62 Conclusions Experiment Doubt Measure Feed-back
  59. 59. | 63 Agent économique rationnel Couts $ Bénéfices $
  60. 60. | 64 Conclusions • We are not rational economical agent • Many decisions are unconsciously irrational • We have lot of cognitive biases • We have naturally a good ability for comparison and finding patterns • In facing complexity , we have a tendency to choose the easiest path (System 1 )
  61. 61. | 65 Conclusions • When it is too easy :doubt • Rely on empirical evidence • Experiment , prototype, measure • PDCA • … Be AGILE
  62. 62. | 66 & the confirmation bias?
  63. 63. Credits • https://class.coursera.org/behavioralecon-002
  64. 64. | 69 Questions?
  65. 65. | 70 THANK YOU

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