1.
The Roots of Modern Nationalism
and the Populist Backlash
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes Aspen Ministers Forum, June, 2018

2.
IS POPULISM JUST A PRODUCT OF THE ECONOMY?
July 16, 2018 2

3.
July 16, 2018 3
Europeans Favorable to Populist Parties are Slightly Less
Positive About the Economy But Not All Are Negative
Source: Survey of eight Western European countries conducted Oct. 30-Dec. 20, 2017.
The current economic situation in our country is good
87%
82
77
75
25
15
88%
88
87
91
36
18
Denmark
Netherlands
Germany
Sweden
France
Italy
Among those with a favorable view of __
Among those with an unfavorable view of __
Danish People’s Party
Party for Freedom
Alternative for Germany
Sweden Democrats
National Front
League

4.
In the U.S. Republicans Were Quite Negative About the
Economy Before Trump’s Election, But Not Now
4
Note: Data before February 2004 from Gallup.
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.
% who rate national economic conditions as excellent or good
July 16, 2018

5.
However, There is a Nostalgia for the Past: Those Who View
Populist Parties Favorably Are More Likely to Say Life Is Worse
Today Than It Was 50 Years Ago
5
Life in our country today is worse than it was 50 years ago for people like me
Note: All differences shown are statistically significant.
Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes survey.
July 16, 2018

6.
6
Similarly in the U.S., in 2016 the GOP Thought ‘the Past Was Better’
Source: Survey conducted June 27-July 9, 2017.
Life in America is ___ than it was 50 years ago for people like you?
36% 37
44% 41
18
44
68
40
52
35
24
41
Aug ’16 July ‘17 Aug ’16 July ‘17Aug ’16 July ‘17
Total Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem
16% 18 20 2010 13
Better
Worse
July 16, 2018
Same

7.
IS POPULISM SIMPLY TRADITIONAL NATIONALISM?
July 16, 2018 7

8.
8
Note: Figures may not add to subtotals indicated due to rounding.
Source: Survey conducted April-August 2017 in 15 countries.
National pride European pride
Very proud Very proud Nat/Euro Diff
Austria 43% 28% +15
Belgium 37 34 +3
Denmark 48 35 +13
Finland 59 45 +14
France 41 31 +10
Germany 32 25 +7
Ireland 53 33 +20
Italy 45 28 +17
Netherlands 39 31 +8
Norway 61 45 +16
Portugal 69 56 +13
Spain 54 48 +6
Sweden 51 43 +8
Switzerland 41 27 +14
United Kingdom 38 20 +18
MEDIAN 45 33 +12
Western Europeans Are More Likely to Say They Are ‘Very
Proud’ of Their National Identity Than European Identity
% who say very proud to be a national of their country compared with very proud to be European
July 16, 2018

9.
A Third to a Half of Europeans Are
Wary of Global Engagement However You Define It
July 16, 2018 9
% who say …
Note: In U.S., question asked whether the U.S. plays a “less important and powerful role as a world leader.”
Source: U.S. survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.

10.
People on the Political Right Are More Likely to Want Their
Country to Focus on Domestic Problems
July 16, 2018 10
Source; Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
Note: Statistically significant differences in bold.
Our country should deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with their own problems
as best they can
Left Center Right
Right-left
Diff
% % %
France 48 57 72 +24
Netherlands 30 55 54 +24
UK 34 56 57 +23
Germany 21 47 40 +19
Italy 61 64 79 +18
Spain 35 34 53 +18
Sweden 33 45 50 +17
Greece 77 83 88 +11
Poland 64 63 66 +2
Hungary 77 81 74 -3

11.
July 16, 2018 11
Which statement best describes your views about the future of the European Union?
And, Supporters of Populist Parties Are Generally More
Supportive of Returning Some Powers to National Governments
National
govts should transfer
more powers to EU
Division of power
should remain the
same
Some powers should
be returned to national
govts
France % % %
Socialist Party (PS) 38 31 28
Republicans (LR) 34 17 43
National Front (FN) 31 24 39
Germany
CDU/CSU 29 29 35
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 27 38 34
Greens 36 29 33
Greece
SYRIZA 8 17 68
New Democracy (ND) 12 25 56
Italy
Forza Italia (FI) 24 36 37
Democratic Party (PD) 23 42 28
Five Star Movement (M5S) 22 24 51
Netherlands
VVD 16 33 50
Democrats 66 26 32 41
Note: Bolded figures indicate the top view in each party.
Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

12.
July 16, 2018 12
Which statement best describes your views about the future of the European Union?
Supporters of Populist Parties Are Generally More Supportive of
Returning Some Powers to National Governments
National
govts should transfer
more powers to EU
Division of power
should remain the
same
Some powers should
be returned to
national govts
Poland % % %
Civic Platform (PO) 22 52 19
Law and Justice (PiS) 6 35 48
Spain
People’s Party (PP) 27 40 26
PSOE 28 29 37
Ciudadanos 33 30 34
Podemos 28 21 44
Sweden
Swedish Social Democratic Party (SAP)
16 43 40
Moderate Party 10 42 45
UK
Labour 11 37 49
Conservative 4 16 77
UKIP 1 5 93
Note: Bolded figures indicate the top view in each party.
Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

13.
13
In the U.S., Republicans, Before the 2016 Election, Said the U.S.
Was Less Important on the World Stage Than a Decade Ago
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted April 25–May 1, 2018.
31%
21%
45
15
19
27
35
46
19
65
49
29
May 2018
April 2016
May 2018
April 2016
May 2018
April 2016
More important Less important
Among Rep/Lean Rep ...
Among Dem/Lean Dem ...
Total
Compared with 10 years ago, U.S. plays ___ role as a world leader…
July 16, 2018

14.
July 16, 2018 14
The U.S. should …
In 2016, Trump Backers Wanted
the U.S. to Focus on America’s Problems
Note: Based on registered voters.
Source: Survey conducted Oct 20-25, 2016
41%
56
25
54%
40
70
All voters
Clinton supporters
Trump supporters
Help other countries
deal with problems
Deal with own problems

15.
IS POPULISM JUST ETHNOCENTRISM?
July 16, 2018 15

16.
58%
50
49
47
47
47
46
45
44
42
36
31
26
23
20
38%
48
46
49
49
48
52
51
51
53
61
67
69
75
75
Norway
Switzerland
Finland
Austria
Italy
Portugal
United Kingdom
Germany
Denmark
Ireland
France
Netherlands
Sweden
Belgium
Spain
Western Europeans Are Split Over
Whether Their Culture is Superior to Others
Disagree Agree
July 16, 2018 16
% who agree/disagree, “Our people are not perfect but our culture is superior to others”
Source: Survey conducted April-August 2017 in 15 countries.

17.
Nativist Views of National Identity Are Prevalent in Many Nations
% who say being born in the country/having ancestry in the country is important to truly be a
national of the country
Important to be born in the
country
Important to have family
background in the country
81%
68
66
59
58
57
53
51
49
48
48
41
41
36
22
Portugal
Italy
Spain
Ireland
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Austria
Finland
Belgium
France
Germany
Netherlands
Norway
Denmark
Sweden
80%
75
64
61
59
58
57
53
51
49
42
40
38
35
21
Portugal
Italy
Ireland
Switzerland
Spain
United Kingdom
Austria
France
Finland
Germany
Belgium
Norway
Netherlands
Denmark
Sweden
July 16, 2018 17
Source: Survey conducted April-August 2017 in 15 European countries

18.
18
Source: Survey conducted April-August 2017 in 15 countries.
It is important to have been born here in
order to truly be one of us
76
75
74
55
39
66
44
42
35
15
Italy (Northern
League)
Germany (AfD)
France (FN)
Netherlands (PVV)
Sweden (Sweden
Democrats)
Favorable View Unfavorable View
86
78
73
55
40
72
45
48
32
14
Italy (Northern
League)
Germany (AfD)
France (FN)
Netherlands (PVV)
Sweden (Sweden
Democrats)
Favorable View Unfavorable View
It is important to have our country’s family
background to truly be one of us
And, Those Who Back Populist Parties in Europe Are Generally
More Nativist Than Their Fellow Countrymen
July 16, 2018

19.
34%
34
42
40
43
44
44
31
42
41
40
37
48
53
62
52%
48
48
47
47
46
46
46
46
45
45
44
42
33
29
France
Sweden
Switzerland
Belgium
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Portugal
UK
Ireland
Norway
Spain
Austria
Italy
Finland
Western Europeans Are Divided Over Whether Islam is
Compatible With National Culture/Values
Islam is fundamentally
incompatible with country
culture and values
There is no fundamental
contradiction between Islam
and national culture/values
July 16, 2018 19
Source: Survey conducted April-August 2017 in 15 countries.

20.
20
Source: Survey conducted April-August 2017 in 15 countries.
I agree that our people are not perfect but
our culture is superior to others
61
56
48
47
40
44
33
48
24
21
Germany (AfD)
France (FN)
Italy (Northern
League)
Netherlands (PVV)
Sweden (Sweden
Democrats)
Favorable View Unfavorable View
Islam is fundamentally incompatible with
our culture and values
75
63
54
50
39
35
28
52
30
Germany (AfD)
Netherlands (PVV)
France (FN)
Italy (Northern
League)
Sweden (Sweden
Democrats)
Favorable View Unfavorable View
66
And Supporters of Populist Parties Are Generally More Likely to
Believe that Their Culture is Superior and that Islam is
Incompatible with Their Culture and Values
July 16, 2018

21.
21
In the U.S., Republicans Are Far Less Likely Than Democrats
to Have Positive Views of Growing Diversity
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted April 25-May 1, 2018.
58%
47
46
48
70
66
78
Total
Rep/Lean Rep
Dem/Lean Dem
Conserv
Mod/Liberal
Cons/Mod
Liberal
% who say an increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups and nationalities make the
U.S. a better place to live
July 16, 2018

22.
July 16, 2018 22
And the Partisan Divide on Race and Immigration is Growing
Source: Survey conducted June 8-18 and June 27-July 9, 2017.

23.
WHAT MIGHT BE THE ROLE OF THE NEWS MEDIA?
July 16, 2018 23

24.
July 16, 2018 24
In Europe, Populists Are Less Likely than Others to Value the
News Media’s Role in Society
% of adults in each country who say the news media are very important to the functioning of the country’s society
Note: Statistically significant differences in bold. Respondents are classified as holding populist views if they answered: “Most elected officials
don’t care what people like me think” and “Ordinary people would do a better job solving the country’s problems than elected officials.” See
appendix C for details on classification.
Source: Survey of eight Western European countries conducted Oct. 30-Dec. 20, 2017.

25.
July 16, 2018 25
And Those With Populist Views Trust the News Media Far
Less Than Those Who Don’t Have Populist Views
% of adults in each country who trust the news media a lot/somewhat
Note: Statistically significant differences are in bold. Respondents are classified as holding populist views if they answered: “Most elected officials
don’t care what people like me think” and “Ordinary people would do a better job solving the country’s problems than elected officials.” See
Appendix C for details on classification.
Source: Survey of eight Western European countries conducted Oct. 30-Dec. 20, 2017.

26.
26
In the U.S., Liberals and Conservatives Live in Different
Media Worlds
Source: 2014 Political Polarization & Media Habits
July 16, 2018

27.
July 16, 2018 27
All Pew Research Center reports and data are
available online at www.pewresearch.org
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes
@bruceestokes