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The next digital disruptions
Lee Rainie
Pew Research Center
Director Internet, Science and Technology Research
Presented to: Future of the Net
Milan, Italy
October 5, 2015
The Next Digital Disruptions
Networked Individualism
The move to looser, far-flung networks
Personal networks are:
More important – trust
Differently composed – segmented, layered
Mediators and feedback providers
Three digital technology revolutions in
the past generation
1) In U.S. - 89% use the internet (46% in 2000)
70% - broadband @ home (3% in 2000)
Italy – 7-in-10 use internet (38% in 2007)
2) In U.S. - 92% use cell phone (53% in 2000)
68% -- smartphone (35% in 2011)
Italy – More than 90% use cell phones
60% - smartphones
3) In U.S. 65% use social networking sites (3% in 2005)
Italy – more than 60% use social networking
A few basics on the Triple Revolution in U.S.
and Italy - % of adults
October 5, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 7
www.pewresearch.org
www.pewresearch.org
www.pewresearch.org
The Next Digital Disruptions
Future disruptions
Digital Life in 2025
The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ —
less visible, yet more deeply embedded in
people’s lives for good and ill
Upsides: enhanced health, education, convenience,
productivity, safety, and vastly more useful
information and self-awareness.
Downsides: privacy challenges, over-hyped
expectations, and tech complexity.
The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025
Theme 1) There will be a global,
immersive, invisible, ambient networked
computing environment built through
growth of smart sensors, cameras,
software, databases, and artificial
intelligence.
Theme 2) There will be smart agent and
augmented-reality enhancements to the
real-world input that people perceive
through the use of portable / wearable /
implantable technologies.
Theme 3) Social and business
encounters and personal and business
enrichment will be shaped by
virtual reality and telepresence.
Theme 4) There will tagging, databasing,
and intelligent analytical mapping of the
physical and social realms.
Darksides
Theme 1) The nature of work will change in
unprecedented ways as robots and
artificial intelligence assume greater
roles in job functions
Theme 2) Privacy will be more at risk and
something perhaps only the
privileged will enjoy.
Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves
and have-nots may expand, resulting in
resentment and possible violence.
http://vis4.net/blog/posts/mapping-internet-and-population/
Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’
Human nature isn’t changing; there’s laziness, bullying,
stalking, stupidity, pornography, dirty tricks, crime, and
those who practice them have new capacity to make
life miserable for others.
Theme 5) Humans and their organizations
may not respond quickly enough to
challenges presented by complex
networks.
Grazie mille!

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The Next Digital Disruptions

  • 1. The next digital disruptions Lee Rainie Pew Research Center Director Internet, Science and Technology Research Presented to: Future of the Net Milan, Italy October 5, 2015
  • 3. Networked Individualism The move to looser, far-flung networks
  • 4. Personal networks are: More important – trust Differently composed – segmented, layered Mediators and feedback providers
  • 5. Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation
  • 6. 1) In U.S. - 89% use the internet (46% in 2000) 70% - broadband @ home (3% in 2000) Italy – 7-in-10 use internet (38% in 2007) 2) In U.S. - 92% use cell phone (53% in 2000) 68% -- smartphone (35% in 2011) Italy – More than 90% use cell phones 60% - smartphones 3) In U.S. 65% use social networking sites (3% in 2005) Italy – more than 60% use social networking A few basics on the Triple Revolution in U.S. and Italy - % of adults
  • 7. October 5, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 7
  • 13. Digital Life in 2025 The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill
  • 14. Upsides: enhanced health, education, convenience, productivity, safety, and vastly more useful information and self-awareness. Downsides: privacy challenges, over-hyped expectations, and tech complexity. The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025
  • 15. Theme 1) There will be a global, immersive, invisible, ambient networked computing environment built through growth of smart sensors, cameras, software, databases, and artificial intelligence.
  • 16. Theme 2) There will be smart agent and augmented-reality enhancements to the real-world input that people perceive through the use of portable / wearable / implantable technologies.
  • 17. Theme 3) Social and business encounters and personal and business enrichment will be shaped by virtual reality and telepresence.
  • 18. Theme 4) There will tagging, databasing, and intelligent analytical mapping of the physical and social realms.
  • 20. Theme 1) The nature of work will change in unprecedented ways as robots and artificial intelligence assume greater roles in job functions
  • 21. Theme 2) Privacy will be more at risk and something perhaps only the privileged will enjoy.
  • 22. Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves and have-nots may expand, resulting in resentment and possible violence. http://vis4.net/blog/posts/mapping-internet-and-population/
  • 23. Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing; there’s laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, dirty tricks, crime, and those who practice them have new capacity to make life miserable for others.
  • 24. Theme 5) Humans and their organizations may not respond quickly enough to challenges presented by complex networks.

Editor's Notes

  1.   Title: The Next Digital Disruptions Subject: Lee Rainie, Director of Internet, Science and Technology research at the Pew Research Center in the U.S., will discuss three technology revolutions of the past decade and how a fourth revolution is now underway. He will cover global trends in adoption of 1) the internet and broadband; 2) mobile connectivity; and 3) social media and then will discuss how the “Internet of Things” will affect people and businesses in the next decade.