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THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET  EXPERT-SURVEY RESULTS Lee Rainie Director – Pew Internet Project Capital Cabal 3.31.10
2000 46% of adults use internet 5% with broadband at home 50% own a cell phone 0% connect to internet wirelessly <10% use “cloud”  = slow, stationary connections built around  my computer The internet is the change agent  Then   and now 2010 75% of adults use internet 62% have broadband at home 80% own a cell phone 53% connect to internet wirelessly >two-thirds use “cloud” = fast, mobile connections built around  outside servers and storage
Futurism 101 – the technology side ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Futurism 101 – the operating/apps side ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Metaverse Roadmap   http:// www.metaverseroadmap.org /overview/   Augmentation Simulation External Internal Augmented  Reality Lifelogging Mirror  Worlds Virtual Worlds
Survey basics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http:// www.elon.edu /predictions/
Survey basics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http:// www.elon.edu /predictions/
Question strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http:// www.elon.edu /predictions/
The impact of the internet on institutions
The impact of the internet on institutions By 2020, governments, businesses, non-profits …  will primarily retain familiar 20th century models for conduct of relationships  with citizens and consumers online and offline. 26% experts 26% full sample By 2020, innovative forms of online cooperation will result in  significantly more efficient and responsive governments, business, non-profits, and other mainstream institutions. 71% experts 72% full sample
Themes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/google
Will Google make us stupid? By 2020, people’s use of the Internet has not enhanced human intelligence and it could even be lowering the IQs of most people who use it a lot.  Nicholas Carr was right: Google makes us stupid 16% experts 21% full sample By 2020, people’s use of the Internet has enhanced human intelligence; as people are allowed unprecedented access to more information, they become smarter and make better choices.  Nicholas Carr was wrong: Google does not make us stupid 81% experts 76% full sample
Themes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Are hot new gadgets and apps evident now?
Are hot new gadgets evident now? Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue”  and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators.   81% experts 80% full sample The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are  pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise. 16% experts 17% full sample
Themes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is the future of online anonymity?
What is the future of online anonymity? By 2020, Internet users can do a lot of normal online activities anonymously even though the identification systems used on the Internet have been applied to a wider range of activities.  It is still relatively easy for Internet users to create content, communicate, and browse without publicly disclosing who they are.  54% experts 55% full sample By 2020, the identification ID systems used online are tighter and more formal – fingerprints or DNA-scans or retina scans. The use of these systems is the gateway to most of the Internet-enabled activity that users are able to perform such as shopping, communicating, creating content, and browsing.  Anonymous online activity is sharply curtailed. 42% experts 41% full sample
Themes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle?
Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle? In the years between now and 2020,  the Internet will mostly become a technology where intermediary institutions that control the architecture and significant amounts of content will be successful  in gaining the right to manage information and the method by which people access and share it.  29% experts 33% full sample In the years between now and 2020,  the Internet will mostly remain a technology based on the end-to-end principle that was envisioned by the Internet’s founders.  Most disagreements over the way information flows online will be resolved in favor of a minimum number of restrictions over the information available online and the methods by which people access it.  63% experts 61% full sample
Themes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering of knowledge?
Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering of knowledge? By 2020, it will be clear that  the Internet has diminished and endangered reading, writing, and the intelligent rendering of knowledge.   27% experts 32% full sample By 2020, it will be clear that  the Internet has enhanced and improved reading, writing, and the rendering of knowledge.   69% experts 65% full sample
Themes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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The Impact of the Internet on Institutions in the Future

  • 1. THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET EXPERT-SURVEY RESULTS Lee Rainie Director – Pew Internet Project Capital Cabal 3.31.10
  • 2. 2000 46% of adults use internet 5% with broadband at home 50% own a cell phone 0% connect to internet wirelessly <10% use “cloud” = slow, stationary connections built around my computer The internet is the change agent Then and now 2010 75% of adults use internet 62% have broadband at home 80% own a cell phone 53% connect to internet wirelessly >two-thirds use “cloud” = fast, mobile connections built around outside servers and storage
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  • 5. Metaverse Roadmap http:// www.metaverseroadmap.org /overview/ Augmentation Simulation External Internal Augmented Reality Lifelogging Mirror Worlds Virtual Worlds
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  • 9. The impact of the internet on institutions
  • 10. The impact of the internet on institutions By 2020, governments, businesses, non-profits … will primarily retain familiar 20th century models for conduct of relationships with citizens and consumers online and offline. 26% experts 26% full sample By 2020, innovative forms of online cooperation will result in significantly more efficient and responsive governments, business, non-profits, and other mainstream institutions. 71% experts 72% full sample
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  • 13. Will Google make us stupid? By 2020, people’s use of the Internet has not enhanced human intelligence and it could even be lowering the IQs of most people who use it a lot. Nicholas Carr was right: Google makes us stupid 16% experts 21% full sample By 2020, people’s use of the Internet has enhanced human intelligence; as people are allowed unprecedented access to more information, they become smarter and make better choices. Nicholas Carr was wrong: Google does not make us stupid 81% experts 76% full sample
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  • 15. Are hot new gadgets and apps evident now?
  • 16. Are hot new gadgets evident now? Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue” and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators. 81% experts 80% full sample The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise. 16% experts 17% full sample
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  • 18. What is the future of online anonymity?
  • 19. What is the future of online anonymity? By 2020, Internet users can do a lot of normal online activities anonymously even though the identification systems used on the Internet have been applied to a wider range of activities. It is still relatively easy for Internet users to create content, communicate, and browse without publicly disclosing who they are. 54% experts 55% full sample By 2020, the identification ID systems used online are tighter and more formal – fingerprints or DNA-scans or retina scans. The use of these systems is the gateway to most of the Internet-enabled activity that users are able to perform such as shopping, communicating, creating content, and browsing. Anonymous online activity is sharply curtailed. 42% experts 41% full sample
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  • 21. Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle?
  • 22. Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle? In the years between now and 2020, the Internet will mostly become a technology where intermediary institutions that control the architecture and significant amounts of content will be successful in gaining the right to manage information and the method by which people access and share it. 29% experts 33% full sample In the years between now and 2020, the Internet will mostly remain a technology based on the end-to-end principle that was envisioned by the Internet’s founders. Most disagreements over the way information flows online will be resolved in favor of a minimum number of restrictions over the information available online and the methods by which people access it. 63% experts 61% full sample
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  • 24. Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering of knowledge?
  • 25. Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering of knowledge? By 2020, it will be clear that the Internet has diminished and endangered reading, writing, and the intelligent rendering of knowledge. 27% experts 32% full sample By 2020, it will be clear that the Internet has enhanced and improved reading, writing, and the rendering of knowledge. 69% experts 65% full sample
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