The future growth of cardiff and region 1


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The future growth of cardiff and region 1

  1. 1. The future growth of Cardiff and region: towards a sustainable urban extension Professor John Punter CPLAN CPLAN Innovation and Engagement Seminar: 8 December 2010
  2. 2. <ul><li>‘ to realise a plan, the effort is 50 per cent technical and 50 per cent political’ </li></ul><ul><li>David Mackay, MBM Barcelona </li></ul><ul><li>(quoted by Mark Pearson UDQ 113 p37) </li></ul>
  3. 3. Content <ul><li>Want to explore the future direction of Cardiff’s growth </li></ul><ul><li>Want to set out the scale of the housing problem and implications for inter-generational inequity </li></ul><ul><li>Will argue that a half century of plans have identified the problem and fudged the solution </li></ul><ul><li>Refute notion that we can export our housing to regenerate the Valleys </li></ul><ul><li>Refute notion that green-field development is inherently unsustainable </li></ul><ul><li>Make the case that positive planning can create a long term sustainable solution for city and the region </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasise the need to create a planning process and political consensus to underpin this </li></ul>
  4. 4. Housing numbers, types, locations
  5. 5. Cardiff’s dilemma part of a UK-wide crisis <ul><li>Housing supply lags behind household formation (240k pa req) </li></ul><ul><li>Housebuilders under-supply the market: social supply inadequate </li></ul><ul><li>Affordability crisis and 4.5 m wait for social housing </li></ul><ul><li>Many LPAs reducing housing allocations in face of NIMBYism </li></ul><ul><li>Social exclusion intensifying: first time buyers pay 10-12x income </li></ul><ul><li>Current recession </li></ul><ul><li>exacerbating crisis </li></ul><ul><li>LPAs cannot fund </li></ul><ul><li>infrastructure to plan </li></ul><ul><li>ahead or reduce </li></ul><ul><li>externalities </li></ul><ul><li>National crisis: national </li></ul><ul><li>complacency </li></ul><ul><li>Nimbyism and inter- </li></ul><ul><li>generational equity </li></ul>UK housebuilding 1951-2010
  6. 6. Cardiff’s 2009 LDP: an all-brownfield ‘solution’ <ul><li>27,442 homes required: 1,750 pa </li></ul><ul><li>Plan saw 79% apartments, 90% on brownfield land </li></ul><ul><li>Effectively no 3/4 bed housing: >50% demand </li></ul><ul><li>16% affordable needed: 10% anticipated (306pa) </li></ul><ul><li>9,756 on waiting list now: few will ever be accommodated </li></ul><ul><li>‘ the evidence does not support the contention that the brownfield only strategy will deliver the number of houses and the amount of employment land required. Nor will it deliver family or affordable homes or the range or type of employment land and premises </li></ul><ul><li>(Inspector’s Letter to Council 26-2-2010 para 82) </li></ul><ul><li>Planners warned Councillors that plan needed suburban allocation </li></ul><ul><li>Inspector noted insufficient employment land </li></ul><ul><li>Over concentrated and problematic sites </li></ul><ul><li>Transport provision not plan-led </li></ul><ul><li>Flood risk in S &E Cardiff affects employment sites </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>11% Wales household increase to 2033 </li></ul><ul><li>Surprising 42% increase in Cardiff to 2033 </li></ul><ul><li>59k increase in households 2006-2026 not 27k (LDP) </li></ul><ul><li>So need 2,950 units pa not 1,750 </li></ul><ul><li>Demands a long term, strategic, greenfield solution </li></ul><ul><li>Households decreasing in size: 2.36 pp/hh  2.23 </li></ul><ul><li>69% increase in single persons: 55% in single parents </li></ul><ul><li>So significant apartment emphasis: ca 36% for 1-2 beds </li></ul><ul><li>But 87% supply 1-2 beds (almost all apartments) 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>44% need 3bed and 23% 4bed: 1355 pa: 17% supply </li></ul><ul><li>Inequitable, discriminatory, inflexible, unsustainable </li></ul>New growth projections increase the targets WAG Statistical Directorate: 2008-2033 (2008 database)
  8. 8. Planning history
  9. 9. Buchanan’s alternatives for Cardiff’s growth 1966-2000: A city of 500,000 3 of his 6 prescient models of growth
  10. 10. 1977 Structure Plan emphasised NE growth: 3000 homes short Plans recognise the problem: Do not implement the solution 1983 Structure Plan prioritised Bay but retained Cardiff Gate + WIBP
  11. 11. Poorly planned: poor public transport: coarse grain of uses: car-oriented; poor walkability: disconnected green space: low biodiversity: ‘anyplace’ housebuilder layouts/designs Pontprennau CC Local Plan 1996
  12. 12. 2001 UDP: NE and NW growth: 5000 homes short Note proposal to restore rail link to Creigiau and Church Village Note greenbelt protection given to St Fagans
  13. 13. Deposit Plan 2009: withdrawn March 2010 Note ‘white land’: not protected: not allocated pre 2021
  14. 14. Obvious development options: or export all the family housing!
  15. 15. Cardiff LDP 2009:Constraints Map: flood risk constrains options
  16. 16. Regional issues
  17. 17. Must work in ways that spread prosperity a coherent and low carbon way..key settlements as employment hubs with distinct identity..targeted affordable housing Wales Spatial Plan 2004/2008: spreading prosperity: regenerate the Valleys through exporting housing?
  18. 18. SEWSPG allocations to 2021 <ul><li>Households % regional growth </li></ul><ul><li>Blaenau Gwent 4,280 3.9 </li></ul><ul><li>Caerphilly 11,450 10.5 </li></ul><ul><li>Cardiff 26,070 23.9 </li></ul><ul><li>Merthyr Tydfil 4,900 4.5 </li></ul><ul><li>RhonddaCTaff 17,300 15.9 </li></ul><ul><li>Vale of Glamorgan 9,940 9.1 </li></ul>
  19. 19. Rhonnda Cynon Taff LDP 2010 14,750 houses allocated 800 800 1275 1700 500 800 Llanharan Llantrisant Beddau Creigiau Llantwit Fadre WIBP Church Village
  20. 20. Church Village/Beddau: car dominated sprawl: New by-pass: long term plans for rail link to Pontyclun
  21. 21. Llantrisant: drive-in ‘Edge City’: identity? low carbon?
  22. 22. Caerphilly LDP 2006-2021 8,625 homes 1673 dwellings 3127 dwellings Valleys take the overspill but car commuting still 87%
  23. 23. 400 600 400 2950 500 300 1500 400 800 373 674 140 Northern Valleys: major housing allocations in current LDPs
  24. 24. Importance of in-commuting to Cardiff: 2005/2007 Vale 17k: 5k out RCT 14k: 4k out C’philly 10k: 2k out 10% by rail 87% by car (63% drivers) Unsustainable
  25. 25. LDP 2014-2033 Options
  26. 26. Cardiff must respond properly to its housing needs Seeks economic growth: needs sustainable suburbs Cardiff LDP Delivery Agreement <ul><li>Delivery Agreement approved 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>First public conference held </li></ul><ul><li>Assembling evidence base April 2010-February 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>Preferred Strategy October 2010-June 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>( vision and objectives : strategic options: strategic sites) </li></ul><ul><li>5. Pre-Deposit consultation November-December 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>6. Deposit of proposals January-November 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>7. Alternative sites consultation March-April 2013 </li></ul><ul><li>8. Submission of LDP (incl SAR, CIS etc) to WAG August 2013 </li></ul><ul><li>9. Independent examination January-March 2014 </li></ul><ul><li>10. Inspector’s Report August 2014 </li></ul><ul><li>11. Adoption October 2014, then annual monitoring reports </li></ul><ul><li>Assembly elections May 2011: Local elections May 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>Political sensitivities and opportunism </li></ul>
  27. 27. Alternative sites consultation 2009 : landowner/developer ambitions : Two long-standing large scale options in NE and NW, but latter offers longer term solution
  28. 28. North East Cardiff: Redrow/part WAG land ca 4000 homes
  29. 29. Protects Lisvane, reservoirs, streams Green buffers on M4 and Nant Glandulas Potential energy efficiency homes (WAG) Traditional ‘high streets’: live work units Extensive employment area Mixed housing types: walkable services Public transport? No bus-rail integration?
  30. 30. Earl of Plymouth Estates Estate owns ca 80% of land within M4/PDR Old style car dependence Needs re-planning North West Cardiff: 2008 proposals: Phase 1 3,500 homes
  31. 31. A sustainable urban extension?
  32. 32. The landscape/ecology considerations The transportation conundrum The city and sub-regional connections
  33. 33. Biodiversity concerns to shape site planning Source: CC Biodiversity Action Plan
  34. 34. Sustainability principles <ul><li>Rapid transit served, regionally linked </li></ul><ul><li>Link medium-high density sub-centres </li></ul><ul><li>Walkable/cyclable local communities </li></ul><ul><li>Compact development: 50-100 du/ha </li></ul><ul><li>Mixed housing tenure/types/affordability </li></ul><ul><li>Low carbon homes: renewable energy </li></ul><ul><li>Integral CHP/waste recycling </li></ul><ul><li>Integral, accessible employment </li></ul><ul><li>Generous green frame, biodiverse </li></ul><ul><li>linear park system </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainable drainage systems </li></ul><ul><li>A public-private-community partnership </li></ul><ul><li>Participative ‘Enquiry by Design’ process </li></ul><ul><li>A Sustainable Design Code </li></ul><ul><li>A national sustainable exemplar for Wales </li></ul><ul><li>A single landowner to provide continuity, commitment and quality over 20 years </li></ul>Hanham Hall: Barratts: Code 6
  35. 35. LDP Preferred Strategy 2008
  36. 36. Precedents
  37. 37. Participative process and mixed use/tenure scheme Original scheme: old style Enquiry by Design, masterplan, code Dwellings 3,700 6,400 Retail 700m2 13,320 sm Business zero 70,850 m Open space 52% 28% Precedents: 1: Upton, Northampton
  38. 38. Upton
  39. 39. Precedent 2: Newcastle’s northern extension : shows the importance of testing alternative models with multiple criteria: linear solution (left) gave very high accessibility but required major investment in a new transit line: the cellular scheme (right) uses existing Metro stations, invades the greenbelt, but uses higher densities close to stations.
  40. 40. New sustainable suburb of Vauban, Freiburg, Germany 5,000 people, 600 jobs at 50 du/ha gross: 4 storeys maximum: no mass house builders Tram based: 65% walk/cycle: CHP supply / low energy throughout: Council Cttee + Agencies + Forum manage the development 3: Freiburg: continental exemplar
  41. 41. Conclusions
  42. 42. Conclusions <ul><li>Must ensure the LDP process develops a credible strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Publicly debate all the strategic growth options incl. post 2026 </li></ul><ul><li>Build cross-party political consensus about long term housing </li></ul><ul><li>needs and the way of addressing it </li></ul><ul><li>Address social sustainability alongside countryside conservation </li></ul><ul><li>Develop the sustainability criteria to underpin the planning process: </li></ul><ul><li>the design policies to underpin the strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Establish the public private partnership to drive the scheme, to ensure </li></ul><ul><li>affordability and energy efficiency, and set up funding </li></ul><ul><li>Ensure the provision of public transport infrastructure to provide access </li></ul><ul><li>to jobs and services and protect adjacent suburbs </li></ul><ul><li>Develop the design/development team , masterplan, code (?) and </li></ul><ul><li>competitive processes to deliver sustainable extension(s) </li></ul><ul><li>A ‘world class city’ needs world class suburbs </li></ul>
  43. 43. Provision of affordable housing has declined as a proportion of market housing
  44. 45. Connecting through Wales International Business Park to Creigiau and Beddau to serve RCT Jct 32M4 Jct 32 M4
  45. 46. SEWTA transport plans £ 65m pa funding cannot deliver quality network 77,000 in-commuters 2006 Rapid increase from Vale/RCT