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WHO CARES
2030
Peter Cochrane OBE
petercochrane.com
• All countries and care systems are struggling
• There are no ideal/perfect health solutions
• We have no metrics by whic...
Sudden
Death
Terminal
Illness
Organ
Failure
Frailty
Long
Term
Decline
Functionality
Increasing Lifespan
Productive
Years
F...
10 Game Changers
In just 11 years 2019 - 2030
What is the % likelihood of ‘X’ being
available in this 2030 time frame…
1) Quantum CoMputing
What is the likelihood of ‘X’ being available in
this time frame - as a % for each category
IFF > 100...
2) Patient centric 90%
Challenge ?
O r a n e w c a r e p a r t n e r s h i p !
D r s a n d P a t i e n t s w i l l
b u i l d t h e u l t i m a t ...
MD Programmer Security Researcher Analyst
~ 3
~ 2
~ 1
~ 0 . 3
~ 0 . 1
THE DATA TSUNAMI
M o s t o f w h a t w e u n d e r s...
5
TYPE 1
Reactive
Task Specific
Very Limited
Largely Pattern Matching
Human Programmers: Chess, cards,
dominoes data, spee...
5
TYPE 1
Reactive
Task Specific
Very Limited
Largely Pattern Matching
Human Programmers: Chess, cards,
dominoes data, spee...
3) ROBOT SURGERYA u t o n o m o u s a n d g l o b a l l y n e t w o r k e d
W h e n o n e r o b o t
d i s c o v e r s o r ...
new possiBiliTiesA u t o n o m y f r o m t h e m i c r o t o t h e m a c r o
A u t o n o m o u s / c o n t r o l l e d
4) nanoBots
85% 5%
100%5) SENSOR NETS
6 ) A R & V RTech is easy but humans !
Ipswich Hospital +
Ambulance Service
BTLabs 1995
Remote Endoscope
Positioning/Viewi...
Tele-skills: teaching, training, coaching, support, transfer !
We might just have to
wait for a generation to
retire before we see
t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s
adopted
70%
N E W V ...
7) printed Parts
High precision, greater success rate,
better quality, lower cost
50%
Trachea
Vertebral Disc
Breathing Lung
NEW FOR OLD ?
8 ) S T E M C E L L S
...many die or become disabled
through secondary infections...
Burns, Joints, Nervous System, Dement...
RAPID HEAL
P r o g n o s i s
Hospital
Prime Centre
of Expertise
& Capability
Medical Centre
Prime Point of Local
Capability
Home Base...
6) DIY care?
Sensor tec hnolo gies a vailable
to all…
Low cost and affordable devices 90%
Linked PRODUCTS
Monitoring the in:out and effect…
40%
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.biz
10) DIFM to DIYEncourage those who can to J DI
T h r e e s t o r i e s o f D I Y c a r e
60%...
6 July 2015
Crash @
25mph
My WifeLife changing accident
Ultra-Sound bone growth stimulation
treatment at home + extensive
...
6 July 2015
Crash @
25mph
My WifeLife changing accident
TERMINUSConnecting to all the world
TV
HBO
Radio
Music
YouTube
Social Nets
Communities
Communications
Conferencing
Employm...
N I C EBlood Pressure
At age 70years
Routine check up 152/76 Heart Rate 74
Long term @ rest 128/69 Heart Rate 58
Short ter...
We all do !
Who Cares ?
Some will be
more capable
than others and
will the drive care
into the new
DIY era
Sharing solutio...
Thank You
1995
petercochrane.com
Who cares 2030 Cambridge - Top 10 Changes to Come!
Who cares 2030 Cambridge - Top 10 Changes to Come!
Who cares 2030 Cambridge - Top 10 Changes to Come!
Who cares 2030 Cambridge - Top 10 Changes to Come!
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Who cares 2030 Cambridge - Top 10 Changes to Come!

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Health care systems worldwide are unable to fully service the needs of aging populations, their accelerating demands and expectations driven by rapid technological advance. This situation is further exacerbated by outmoded operational/management models with constraints dating back to the 1950s.

No amount of money or people will rectify this situation with even the richest and highest spending nations have discovered. So what is the answer? To a large part, health care systems have to migrate form Do It For Me to DIY aided and abetted by low cost medical/health technology for the home, on-line AI, and medical professional help.

“Such a move would allow health services to focus on the serious and what they are good at instead of administering pills, potions and band aids”

In this presentation we look at the next phase of ‘big change’ technologies and practices from Quantum Computing, AI through to the DIY scene in the 2019 - 2030 timeframe and award % likelihood scores for reasonably widespread adoption at a professional/patient level.

Published in: Technology
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Who cares 2030 Cambridge - Top 10 Changes to Come!

  1. 1. WHO CARES 2030 Peter Cochrane OBE petercochrane.com
  2. 2. • All countries and care systems are struggling • There are no ideal/perfect health solutions • We have no metrics by which to judge • Political twiddling is not the way • Patient hype/expectation is on the up • Technology is offering more and more • 1950/60s models/thinking will not work AXIOMS & RealitIES Death is now seen as an unnatural act across the West
  3. 3. Sudden Death Terminal Illness Organ Failure Frailty Long Term Decline Functionality Increasing Lifespan Productive Years Failure and Dependency Models Work - sort of ! New Model(s) Required ChallengeH e a l t h c a r e l a n d s c a p e 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
  4. 4. 10 Game Changers In just 11 years 2019 - 2030 What is the % likelihood of ‘X’ being available in this 2030 time frame…
  5. 5. 1) Quantum CoMputing What is the likelihood of ‘X’ being available in this time frame - as a % for each category IFF > 100 Qbits @ a low error probability For the first time we will be able to understand: - Complexity - Chemistry - Biology - Life And decode: - Complex Drug Interactions - Treatment Combinatorics - Protein Folding - Bio Signalling - Stem Cells - Immunity 40%
  6. 6. 2) Patient centric 90%
  7. 7. Challenge ? O r a n e w c a r e p a r t n e r s h i p ! D r s a n d P a t i e n t s w i l l b u i l d t h e u l t i m a t e s e a r c h t r e e s ! A n d t h i s w i l l s e e A I l e a r n i n g / d i s c o v e r i n g n e w r e l a t i o n s h i p s
  8. 8. MD Programmer Security Researcher Analyst ~ 3 ~ 2 ~ 1 ~ 0 . 3 ~ 0 . 1 THE DATA TSUNAMI M o s t o f w h a t w e u n d e r s t a n d i s w r o n g Tr u e f o r m o s t p r o f e s s i o n a l s a n d p a r t n e r s h i p s w i t h A I a n e w n e c e s s i t y ! K n o w l e d g e / D a t a H a l f L i f e
  9. 9. 5 TYPE 1 Reactive Task Specific Very Limited Largely Pattern Matching Human Programmers: Chess, cards, dominoes data, speech, pictures, characters, behaviours, movements+ Narrow Cognition Largely Programmed by AI alone: Subsume the networked knowledge of previous and current generations TYPE 3 Reasoning Multi-Task Ability Broadly Applicable TYPE 2 Learning Task Specific Broadly Applicable Memory and Analysis Initial Human AI Program That Then Adapts: Recognises highly complex/ large scale non-linear relationships A I L A D D E R Progress & Categories Full Awareness May be categorised as a ‘being’: With a wide range of sensory units networked to other machines TYPE 4 Self-Aware
  10. 10. 5 TYPE 1 Reactive Task Specific Very Limited Largely Pattern Matching Human Programmers: Chess, cards, dominoes data, speech, pictures, characters, behaviours, movements+ Narrow Cognition Largely Programmed by AI alone: Subsume the networked knowledge of previous and current generations TYPE 3 Reasoning Multi-Task Ability Broadly Applicable TYPE 2 Learning Task Specific Broadly Applicable Memory and Analysis Initial Human AI Program That Then Adapts: Recognises highly complex/ large scale non-linear relationships A I L A D D E R Progress & Categories Full Awareness May be categorised as a ‘being’: With a wide range of sensory units networked to other machines TYPE 4 Self-Aware ~ 70yrs to become a solid & deployable technology 2027 Robotic embodiment, extensive sensors & actuators plus entity networking rapidly raises the game 2017 Google Alpha GO p r o p e l s A I i n t o a n autonomous future of learning & doing 2024 AI-Human cooperation see exponential innovation & progress of AI capabilities
  11. 11. 3) ROBOT SURGERYA u t o n o m o u s a n d g l o b a l l y n e t w o r k e d W h e n o n e r o b o t d i s c o v e r s o r l e a r n s s o m e t h i n g , s o d o e s t h e e n t i r e n e t w o r k 90%
  12. 12. new possiBiliTiesA u t o n o m y f r o m t h e m i c r o t o t h e m a c r o
  13. 13. A u t o n o m o u s / c o n t r o l l e d 4) nanoBots 85% 5%
  14. 14. 100%5) SENSOR NETS
  15. 15. 6 ) A R & V RTech is easy but humans ! Ipswich Hospital + Ambulance Service BTLabs 1995 Remote Endoscope Positioning/Viewing Remote Surgery 70% Precursor HUD to Google Glass
  16. 16. Tele-skills: teaching, training, coaching, support, transfer !
  17. 17. We might just have to wait for a generation to retire before we see t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s adopted 70% N E W V i s ua l i s at i o nAn inside-outside view in real time !
  18. 18. 7) printed Parts High precision, greater success rate, better quality, lower cost 50%
  19. 19. Trachea Vertebral Disc Breathing Lung NEW FOR OLD ?
  20. 20. 8 ) S T E M C E L L S ...many die or become disabled through secondary infections... Burns, Joints, Nervous System, Dementia +++… 60%
  21. 21. RAPID HEAL
  22. 22. P r o g n o s i s Hospital Prime Centre of Expertise & Capability Medical Centre Prime Point of Local Capability Home Based Measurements Monitoring Medication Technology Push - Patient Pull M i g r a t i n g c e n t r e o f g r a v i t y
  23. 23. 6) DIY care? Sensor tec hnolo gies a vailable to all… Low cost and affordable devices 90%
  24. 24. Linked PRODUCTS Monitoring the in:out and effect… 40%
  25. 25. cochrane.org.uk ca-global.biz 10) DIFM to DIYEncourage those who can to J DI T h r e e s t o r i e s o f D I Y c a r e 60% D I F M = D o I t F o r M e
  26. 26. 6 July 2015 Crash @ 25mph My WifeLife changing accident Ultra-Sound bone growth stimulation treatment at home + extensive physiotherapy privately
  27. 27. 6 July 2015 Crash @ 25mph My WifeLife changing accident
  28. 28. TERMINUSConnecting to all the world TV HBO Radio Music YouTube Social Nets Communities Communications Conferencing Employment
 Education Shopping Working +++ Tablet £200 - £400 Mechanical Arm and Holster £250 Speech Software £100 Loudspeakers gives the illusion of speech from the head to promote eye contact
  29. 29. N I C EBlood Pressure At age 70years Routine check up 152/76 Heart Rate 74 Long term @ rest 128/69 Heart Rate 58 Short term @ gym 161/91 Heart Rate 125 Treatment Rejected by by patient as unrequired
  30. 30. We all do ! Who Cares ? Some will be more capable than others and will the drive care into the new DIY era Sharing solutions, technology, knowledge will change the risk/legal landscape !
  31. 31. Thank You 1995 petercochrane.com

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