Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
I N N OVAT I O N
F O R R E A L
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk University of Cambridge 11 Nov 2017
2nd Int Conf on Business...
I N N OVAT I O N
Not axiomatic for everyone and a frightener
“If it your problem were simple,
someone would have solved it...
OLD WORLD TO NEW
Local to Globalised & Cooperative
Slow & Disconnected >> Fast & Networked
Linear & Well Behaved >> Comple...
???
Wisdom
Understanding
Sustainability
???
PROGRESSIVE CHANGE
Simplicity
&
Order
Complexity
&
Chaos
Quantum
Mechanics
Qua...
NEW PARTNERS
Logical
Precise
Consistent
Considered
Rapid Recall
Vast Capacity
Fast processing
Expanding utility
Growing Me...
Beyond Human ABILITYWithout micro-Electronics our civilisation would cease to exist
HUMAN SPEED
Bonding the gold I/O micro-wiring
machine speed
Essential to meet the needs of humanity
SILICON VALLEY
The greatest concentration of technology
and start up companies on the planet
Took over 100 years to build
...
resources
No country/company is an island
On the path to sustainability; no company or country has direct
access to all th...
A g e I n v e r s i o n
A new trend underway, and it has only just started
20s / 30s
30s / 40s
>50
Age
Wisdom
Rewards
Seni...
A g e I n v e r s i o n
A new trend underway, and it has only just started
20/30s
30/40
>50
Emergent State
New Innovators
...
Ax i o ms
The only human that likes change
is a wet baby
Ax i o ms
Niccolò Machiavelli (1469 – 1527)
There is nothing more difficult to take in hand,
more perilous to conduct, or m...
Ax i o ms
Luck is everything
Good timing is always vital
Reliable financing an essential
We are betting on teams not tech
...
I N c rE m e nta l
A certain need and a safe step at a time
Forebears:
Railways
Telegraph
Wireless
Telephone
Repeaters
Tel...
Big screen
Soft keys
High price
No market
demand &
all alone
Customers
didn’t know
they needed
/wanted it!
Not a mobile
ph...
N OT G ETT I N G IT
Hidden need, fashion, brand, badge, cache +++
Doh
!!
Steve Balmer Microsoft Scoffs at the iPone:
-No r...
I N N OVAT I O N O R
EVO L UT I O N ???
Innovation >> Evolution >> Innovation…
Innovation EvolutionInnovation
RISK
REWARD
P I R A C Y
And gifts form the GODs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c0CVItMhoQ
The board at Xerox Scoff at “The Mouse”
Ste...
P I R A C Y
And gifts form the GODs
AND
SO
STARTED
A
PROUD
TRADITION
IN
APPLE
INNOvators
now
queue
up
to
give
to
Apple
R EA I L ITY
IDEA R&D
DEMO
MODEL
FUNDING
GETTING
TO MARKET
Break
Even
Income
Invested
Money
Time
Worth
Money
Time
Potentia...
D U M B &
D U M B E R
• No proven market demand
• No proven business case
• No investment case
• No risk assessment
• +++
...
The Heilmeier Catechism (modified by PC):
• What are you trying to do?
• Articulate your objectives as simply as possible.
...
There is a near endless ‘galaxy of tools’ available
TO O LS & P RO C ESS
p e r s o n a l E x p e r i e n c e s
Unlikely to be in any book - they are real life choices
“I have never had a manageme...
M a n a g e m e n t r e a l i t y
You are travelling at speed with incomplete vision
• Spec changes
• Mission creep
• Team...
Appropriateness
Don’t use a sledge hammer to crack a walnut
Yo u m i g h t u s e P R I N C E
o r s o m e o t h e r f o r m...
s i t u a t i o n a w a r e n e s s
Remain flexible, adaptable and ready to change
C o m m u n i c a t i o n i s k e y
Might seem obvious/trivial but turns out to be difficult
• Never assume that people ar...
CO M P L EX R EA L ITY
Formalisation methods cannot overcome scale
S o m e p r o j e c t s a r e
n o w s o l a r g e a n d...
REAL Experiences
Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today
TAT 81980 project start
1986 cable into service - Retire...
REAL Experiences
Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today
TAT 81980 project start
1986 cable into service - Retire...
Day 1 situation
Connect UK - France - USA optically
TAT 81980 no technology available, only a
statement of intent and a bu...
TAT 81980 all we had was an analogue
legacy of discrete technologies +++
Day 1 situation
Connect UK - France - USA optical...
THE Biggest challenges
D e l e g a t i o n - p ro b l e m s o l v i n g - o r c h e s t ra t i o n
TAT 8Pe r f e c t i o n...
i t b e c a m e
A w h o l l y c o n n e c t e d p l a n e t
Internet
Science Network
Financial Network
Telephone Network
E...
i t b e c a m eA new global mega-industry
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q61DHtgFqa0
1998 Project start
1999 Started trading - Sold 2002
The first on-line travel agent in the EU - £0 - £1Bn in 4 years
Origin...
1995 Project start
1996 Started trading - Closed 2003
An ‘idea - to market incubator’ in Silicon Valley
People came to us ...
2012 Project start
2015 Project Abandoned
A new acoustic solution to sniper spotting
Snipers kill people in war zones - mo...
A I & i n n ovat i o n
A primary tool of discovery and understanding
Analytics:
Medical
Security
Big Data
Political
Networ...
R o b ot s t u d e n t
Learning from a master of the art
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6UxmpbSQGU
Robot/AI student and ...
R o b ot s t u d e n t
Learning from a master of the art
CALIBRATION
Some will scoff at such apparently
simple achievement...
“When people are overwhelmed by big problems and fear - it is not our
job to add to the fear and panic - but to help craft...
I must keep an
open mind !
I think and do
different!
I’m thinking of doing a
startup…. I work in an
old established
compan...
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.biz
For more presentations, papers,
videos, on this topic and
supporting topics GOTO
www.cochran...
INNOVATION FOR REAL
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

INNOVATION FOR REAL

562 views

Published on

Until relatively recently our world was disconnected, stable, and slow to change. We saw linear innovation and commerce mostly resulting in well behaved and predictable outcomes. But all that has changed! Non-linearities introduced by networked technologies, people and organisations accelerated innovation, markets & change with emergent behaviours rapidly becoming the new norm. In turn, management, market & economic practices have seen adaptability adopted as a vital tool.

So rapid has been the rate of progress; no country, no matter how big, has all the materials, facilities, people, and innovation skills to meet demand. Our future therefore relies on the globalisation of everything including AI, robotics, production and innovation including human intellect and skills.

Published in: Business
  • Be the first to comment

INNOVATION FOR REAL

  1. 1. I N N OVAT I O N F O R R E A L Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk University of Cambridge 11 Nov 2017 2nd Int Conf on Business & Social Sciences
  2. 2. I N N OVAT I O N Not axiomatic for everyone and a frightener “If it your problem were simple, someone would have solved it a long time ago” “Be prepared to consider and employ the radical, the new, and even the crazy”
  3. 3. OLD WORLD TO NEW Local to Globalised & Cooperative Slow & Disconnected >> Fast & Networked Linear & Well Behaved >> Complex & Chaotic Narrow Opportunity Space >> Anything Goes! Innovative change is generally irreversible without a big human price to pay Progress happens a Byte at a time and is now visibly accelerating
  4. 4. ??? Wisdom Understanding Sustainability ??? PROGRESSIVE CHANGE Simplicity & Order Complexity & Chaos Quantum Mechanics Quantum Dynamics Newtonian Mechanics Linear Thinking Non-Linear Creativity Non-Linear Discovery Isolation Ignorance Superstition Belief Systems Trial & Error Discovery Accident Chance Technology begets more technology and more dependency
  5. 5. NEW PARTNERS Logical Precise Consistent Considered Rapid Recall Vast Capacity Fast processing Expanding utility Growing Memory Variable Linearity Memory unlimited Evolution accelerating Robots & AI are biggest advance in human capacity ever We need new ways of thinking and problem solving to survive & progress Essential tools for a new and different era A u g m e n t i n g intelligences
  6. 6. Beyond Human ABILITYWithout micro-Electronics our civilisation would cease to exist
  7. 7. HUMAN SPEED Bonding the gold I/O micro-wiring
  8. 8. machine speed Essential to meet the needs of humanity
  9. 9. SILICON VALLEY The greatest concentration of technology and start up companies on the planet Took over 100 years to build All efforts to emulate have failed It is an ecology that evolved for decades Sustainable ecologies can’t be built top down We can prime ecologies but can’t control them The best we can do is feed and steer them! Now is the time for a globally distributed and networked version of Silicon Valley!
  10. 10. resources No country/company is an island On the path to sustainability; no company or country has direct access to all the physical, metaphysical, and people resources required to achieve their market, national or global ambitions and responsibilities We have no choice but to globalise and to share and this includes R&D and innovation
  11. 11. A g e I n v e r s i o n A new trend underway, and it has only just started 20s / 30s 30s / 40s >50 Age Wisdom Rewards Seniority Influence Authority Knowledge Experience Responsibility Dominant State Today
  12. 12. A g e I n v e r s i o n A new trend underway, and it has only just started 20/30s 30/40 >50 Emergent State New Innovators Tech StartsAge Wisdom Knowledge Experience Rewards Seniority Influence Authority Knowledge Responsibility
  13. 13. Ax i o ms The only human that likes change is a wet baby
  14. 14. Ax i o ms Niccolò Machiavelli (1469 – 1527) There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead introduction of a new order of things. …the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order… …only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new… …they fear their adversaries…and the incredulity of mankind, who do not truly believe in anything new until they have experienced it.
  15. 15. Ax i o ms Luck is everything Good timing is always vital Reliable financing an essential We are betting on teams not tech Never sell something that cannot be done You need a great supporting network of people Unless you know them well; never trust financial minds Capable & diverse people that can work together are prime Routes to market, partners and suppliers need to be in place early Be prepared to eat, sleep, live, die, marry the project and the product! Commitment is ⧣ 1 Focus on the achievable Be prepared to compromise
  16. 16. I N c rE m e nta l A certain need and a safe step at a time Forebears: Railways Telegraph Wireless Telephone Repeaters Television Computers RADAR SONAR Instrumentation Internet …Mobility By Far The DOMINANT MODE
  17. 17. Big screen Soft keys High price No market demand & all alone Customers didn’t know they needed /wanted it! Not a mobile phone; a total communication entertainment computing environment I N N OVAT I O N O R EVO L UT I O N ??? Evolution >> Innovation Very risky starting strategy/gamble breaking all the rules of the game at the time…and non-obvious… …an act of faith or desperation ???
  18. 18. N OT G ETT I N G IT Hidden need, fashion, brand, badge, cache +++ Doh !! Steve Balmer Microsoft Scoffs at the iPone: -No real keys -$500 an insane price https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U
  19. 19. I N N OVAT I O N O R EVO L UT I O N ??? Innovation >> Evolution >> Innovation… Innovation EvolutionInnovation RISK REWARD
  20. 20. P I R A C Y And gifts form the GODs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c0CVItMhoQ The board at Xerox Scoff at “The Mouse” Steve Jobs pays a visit to PARC
  21. 21. P I R A C Y And gifts form the GODs AND SO STARTED A PROUD TRADITION IN APPLE INNOvators now queue up to give to Apple
  22. 22. R EA I L ITY IDEA R&D DEMO MODEL FUNDING GETTING TO MARKET Break Even Income Invested Money Time Worth Money Time Potential Worth Events Markers Sequence $$$$ Time Value Worth Energy Risk Market Fashion Competition Game Changers
  23. 23. D U M B & D U M B E R • No proven market demand • No proven business case • No investment case • No risk assessment • +++ Managers & Management
  24. 24. The Heilmeier Catechism (modified by PC): • What are you trying to do? • Articulate your objectives as simply as possible. • How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practice? • What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful? • Who cares? • If you are successful, what difference will it make? • What are the risks? • What are the opportunities? • What are the mid-term and final checks and balances • How do you define/measure success? www.darpa.mil/work-with-us/heilmeier-catechism methodologies Never guarantee success, at best mitigate risk
  25. 25. There is a near endless ‘galaxy of tools’ available TO O LS & P RO C ESS
  26. 26. p e r s o n a l E x p e r i e n c e s Unlikely to be in any book - they are real life choices “I have never had a management role where I haven’t had to assume the role as leader, champion and arbiter”
  27. 27. M a n a g e m e n t r e a l i t y You are travelling at speed with incomplete vision • Spec changes • Mission creep • Team changes • Supplier failures • Fickle customer • Budget squeezes • Market pressures • Deadline changes • Competing needs • Transient support • Technology change • Order scale change • Management changes • Shareholder demands • Strategic internal/customer changes • Political and government changes • Legal and environmental rulings • Competing product offerings • New price point negotiated • Internal conflict of interest • Unforeseen M&A activity • New features demanded • Budget/people squeezes • Operating arena change • Deliverables delayed • Hidden agendas • ++++
  28. 28. Appropriateness Don’t use a sledge hammer to crack a walnut Yo u m i g h t u s e P R I N C E o r s o m e o t h e r f o r m a l m e t h o d t o b u i l d a n a i rc r a f t b u t n o t t o b u y a p e n c i l ! !
  29. 29. s i t u a t i o n a w a r e n e s s Remain flexible, adaptable and ready to change
  30. 30. C o m m u n i c a t i o n i s k e y Might seem obvious/trivial but turns out to be difficult • Never assume that people are telling you the full detail/facts/truth • Never assume that people understand what you said and meant • Targets are generally achieved/met by people bending the truth • In general 3 - 5 KPIs extol the truth but >10 illicit falsehoods • KPIs are very often achieved by people fiddling the numbers • If 10 people are in a meeting then it is 10 different meetings • Finance/sales/marketing, seldom have the correct numbers • Personnel are there to observe you and not help and assist
  31. 31. CO M P L EX R EA L ITY Formalisation methods cannot overcome scale S o m e p r o j e c t s a r e n o w s o l a r g e a n d c o m p l e x t h e y cannot be organised and orchestrated by hum an mi nds…. …i t is t he machines t h a t d o a l l t h i s , a n d i n t h e e x t r e m e , a m a c h i n e m a y b e t h e u l t i m a t e m a n a g e r and organiser…
  32. 32. REAL Experiences Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today TAT 81980 project start 1986 cable into service - Retired 2002 Connecting UK - France - USA by the first transatlantic cable Artificial Ocean Quarry & Trawls A fleet of 6 ships Anchors & Chains L a y i n g E q u i p m e n t Monitoring Systems Recovery Equipment Shipboard Equipment Accelerated Life Test Submarine Cable Test Measurement Systems Laboratories Clean Rooms C h i p D e s i g n Circuit Design System Design Chip Fabrication Optical Fibre Test Power Feed Design Surge/Failure Testing Soft Failure Monitoring Undersea Repair Strategy Cost ~ £350M People ~ 3000 Countries = 4 Companies = 7 Sea depth < 4.5 km Cable Span ~ 67000 km Capacity = 2 x 280Mbit/s Repeater span 41 - 65 km Optical = 1.3 𝜇m 0.25dB/km
  33. 33. REAL Experiences Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today TAT 81980 project start 1986 cable into service - Retired 2002 Connecting UK - France - USA by the first transatlantic cable Artificial Ocean Quarry & Trawls A fleet of 6 ships Anchors & Chains L a y i n g E q u i p m e n t Monitoring Systems Recovery Equipment Shipboard Equipment Accelerated Life Test Submarine Cable Test Measurement Systems Laboratories Clean Rooms C h i p D e s i g n Circuit Design System Design Chip Fabrication Optical Fibre Test Power Feed Design Surge/Failure Testing Soft Failure Monitoring Undersea Repair Strategy Cost ~ £350M People ~ 3000 Countries = 4 Companies = 7 Sea depth < 4.5 km Cable Span ~ 67000 km Capacity = 2 x 280Mbit/s Repeater span 41 - 65 km Optical = 1.3 𝜇m 0.25dB/km No Proven Business Case DOH !
  34. 34. Day 1 situation Connect UK - France - USA optically TAT 81980 no technology available, only a statement of intent and a budget !!!
  35. 35. TAT 81980 all we had was an analogue legacy of discrete technologies +++ Day 1 situation Connect UK - France - USA optically
  36. 36. THE Biggest challenges D e l e g a t i o n - p ro b l e m s o l v i n g - o r c h e s t ra t i o n TAT 8Pe r f e c t i o n - t h e e n e m y o f p r o g r e s s People - the biggest asset/nightmare
  37. 37. i t b e c a m e A w h o l l y c o n n e c t e d p l a n e t Internet Science Network Financial Network Telephone Network Engineering Network Primary Wealth Manager Logistics Control Network +++++ Nervous System of The Planet
  38. 38. i t b e c a m eA new global mega-industry https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q61DHtgFqa0
  39. 39. 1998 Project start 1999 Started trading - Sold 2002 The first on-line travel agent in the EU - £0 - £1Bn in 4 years Originated from my ABTA lecture in Marbella September 2008 First planning meeting October 2008 Funding of £55M raised in November 2008 First prototype system built December 2008 Open for business and trading in January 2009 Immediate growth @ 35$/ month continuing to 2002 Achieved £1Bn turnover (not valuation) by end of year 2003 REAL Experiences Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today
  40. 40. 1995 Project start 1996 Started trading - Closed 2003 An ‘idea - to market incubator’ in Silicon Valley People came to us with good ideas and technology but without the experience of how to create a product and get it to market. We provided a 'soup to nuts' support infrastructure spanning idea cultivation through to a full IPO. ConceptLabs was a one stop shop for tech and business creatives.We took the pain away by providing money, advice, skills, and management capability to help you build your company Started by me and Rao Machiraju and 12 people out of Apple ATG who were ‘put out to grass’ by Steve Jobs Simple Business Model: ConceptsLabs worked for a share of the companies created – we invested our own money along side theVCs that supported us in this new and, at the time, highly innovative venture. REAL Experiences Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today
  41. 41. 2012 Project start 2015 Project Abandoned A new acoustic solution to sniper spotting Snipers kill people in war zones - more often than not civilians - and for target practice and fun Existing methods had limited range and were easily ‘blinded’ by bombs, gunfire and screams R&D by me and Graham Bank Ex Celestion, NXT Cambridge - a speculative venture Our idea and invention was to create a new form of acoustic, rather than electronic, filtering REAL Experiences Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today We succeeded, published and presented at conferences, but …we couldn’t convince investors We never got past the ‘self funded’ demo model phase….and had to abandon the project….
  42. 42. A I & i n n ovat i o n A primary tool of discovery and understanding Analytics: Medical Security Big Data Political Networks Economic Genomic Proteomic Diplomatic Complexity ++++ We are way past the point where humans can analyse complexity even on a small scale ! Design: Chips Devices Systems Networks Behaviours ++++ Knowledge: Veracity Linking Creation Curation Searching Selection ++++ The machines are starting to innovate at lower levels and where humans cannot!
  43. 43. R o b ot s t u d e n t Learning from a master of the art https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6UxmpbSQGU Robot/AI student and Master compete - Katana to Katana
  44. 44. R o b ot s t u d e n t Learning from a master of the art CALIBRATION Some will scoff at such apparently simple achievements - but humans take hours and hours of practice to get this right.. …robots and AI could not do this 5 years ago, but now they do it in just one pass…and then the get better on every single go…. BIG Takeway Robots & AI can learn and pefect specific abilities 100 - 1000s of times faster than humans
  45. 45. “When people are overwhelmed by big problems and fear - it is not our job to add to the fear and panic - but to help craft a solution with them” “It is easy to train machines and people to deal with the routine, but the novel and the unexpected is much harder and demands the efforts of multidisciplinary, and diverse, teams of people and machines” including AI, Robotics, Computing Engines, Instrumentation & Networks P r o f ess i o n a l i s m Our responsibilities as managers, engineers, scientists
  46. 46. I must keep an open mind ! I think and do different! I’m thinking of doing a startup…. I work in an old established company… F u n d a m e n t a l Think, be different, and make a friend of risk
  47. 47. cochrane.org.uk ca-global.biz For more presentations, papers, videos, on this topic and supporting topics GOTO www.cochrane.org.uk T h a n k y o u !

×