1. I N N OVAT I O N
F O R R E A L
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk University of Cambridge 11 Nov 2017
2nd Int Conf on Business & Social Sciences

2. I N N OVAT I O N
Not axiomatic for everyone and a frightener
“If it your problem were simple,
someone would have solved it a
long time ago”
“Be prepared to consider and
employ the radical, the new,
and even the crazy”

3. OLD WORLD TO NEW
Local to Globalised & Cooperative
Slow & Disconnected >> Fast & Networked
Linear & Well Behaved >> Complex & Chaotic
Narrow Opportunity Space >> Anything Goes!
Innovative change is generally irreversible without a big human price to pay
Progress happens a Byte at a time and is now visibly accelerating

4. ???
Wisdom
Understanding
Sustainability
???
PROGRESSIVE CHANGE
Simplicity
&
Order
Complexity
&
Chaos
Quantum
Mechanics
Quantum
Dynamics
Newtonian
Mechanics
Linear
Thinking
Non-Linear
Creativity
Non-Linear
Discovery
Isolation
Ignorance
Superstition
Belief Systems
Trial & Error
Discovery
Accident
Chance
Technology begets more technology and more dependency

5. NEW PARTNERS
Logical
Precise
Consistent
Considered
Rapid Recall
Vast Capacity
Fast processing
Expanding utility
Growing Memory
Variable Linearity
Memory unlimited
Evolution accelerating
Robots & AI are biggest
advance in human
capacity ever
We need new ways of thinking and problem solving to survive & progress
Essential tools for a new and different era
A u g m e n t i n g
intelligences

6. Beyond Human ABILITYWithout micro-Electronics our civilisation would cease to exist

7. HUMAN SPEED
Bonding the gold I/O micro-wiring

8. machine speed
Essential to meet the needs of humanity

10. SILICON VALLEY
The greatest concentration of technology
and start up companies on the planet
Took over 100 years to build
All efforts to emulate have failed
It is an ecology that evolved for decades
Sustainable ecologies can’t be built top down
We can prime ecologies but can’t control them
The best we can do is feed and steer them!
Now is the time for a globally distributed and
networked version of Silicon Valley!

11. resources
No country/company is an island
On the path to sustainability; no company or country has direct
access to all the physical, metaphysical, and people resources
required to achieve their market, national or global
ambitions and responsibilities
We have no choice but to globalise and to share
and this includes R&D and innovation

12. A g e I n v e r s i o n
A new trend underway, and it has only just started
20s / 30s
30s / 40s
>50
Age
Wisdom
Rewards
Seniority
Influence
Authority
Knowledge
Experience
Responsibility
Dominant
State Today

13. A g e I n v e r s i o n
A new trend underway, and it has only just started
20/30s
30/40
>50
Emergent State
New Innovators
Tech StartsAge
Wisdom
Knowledge
Experience
Rewards
Seniority
Influence
Authority
Knowledge
Responsibility

14. Ax i o ms
The only human that likes change
is a wet baby

15. Ax i o ms
Niccolò Machiavelli (1469 – 1527)
There is nothing more difficult to take in hand,
more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its
success, than to take the lead introduction of a
new order of things.
…the reformer has enemies in all those who
profit by the old order…
…only lukewarm defenders in all those who would
profit by the new…
…they fear their adversaries…and the incredulity
of mankind, who do not truly believe in anything
new until they have experienced it.

16. Ax i o ms
Luck is everything
Good timing is always vital
Reliable financing an essential
We are betting on teams not tech
Never sell something that cannot be done
You need a great supporting network of people
Unless you know them well; never trust financial minds
Capable & diverse people that can work together are prime
Routes to market, partners and suppliers need to be in place early
Be prepared to eat, sleep, live, die, marry the project and the product!
Commitment is ⧣ 1
Focus on the
achievable
Be prepared
to
compromise

17. I N c rE m e nta l
A certain need and a safe step at a time
Forebears:
Railways
Telegraph
Wireless
Telephone
Repeaters
Television
Computers
RADAR
SONAR
Instrumentation
Internet …Mobility
By
Far
The
DOMINANT
MODE

18. Big screen
Soft keys
High price
No market
demand &
all alone
Customers
didn’t know
they needed
/wanted it!
Not a mobile
phone; a total
communication
entertainment
computing
environment
I N N OVAT I O N O R
EVO L UT I O N ???
Evolution >> Innovation
Very risky starting
strategy/gamble
breaking all the
rules of the game
at the time…and
non-obvious…
…an act of faith
or desperation ???

19. N OT G ETT I N G IT
Hidden need, fashion, brand, badge, cache +++
Doh
!!
Steve Balmer Microsoft Scoffs at the iPone:
-No real keys
-$500 an insane price
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U

20. I N N OVAT I O N O R
EVO L UT I O N ???
Innovation >> Evolution >> Innovation…
Innovation EvolutionInnovation
RISK
REWARD

21. P I R A C Y
And gifts form the GODs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c0CVItMhoQ
The board at Xerox Scoff at “The Mouse”
Steve Jobs pays a visit to PARC

22. P I R A C Y
And gifts form the GODs
AND
SO
STARTED
A
PROUD
TRADITION
IN
APPLE
INNOvators
now
queue
up
to
give
to
Apple

23. R EA I L ITY
IDEA R&D
DEMO
MODEL
FUNDING
GETTING
TO MARKET
Break
Even
Income
Invested
Money
Time
Worth
Money
Time
Potential
Worth
Events
Markers
Sequence
$$$$
Time
Value
Worth
Energy
Risk
Market
Fashion
Competition
Game Changers

24. D U M B &
D U M B E R
• No proven market demand
• No proven business case
• No investment case
• No risk assessment
• +++
Managers & Management

25. The Heilmeier Catechism (modified by PC):
• What are you trying to do?
• Articulate your objectives as simply as possible.
• How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practice?
• What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful?
• Who cares?
• If you are successful, what difference will it make?
• What are the risks?
• What are the opportunities?
• What are the mid-term and final checks and balances
• How do you define/measure success?
www.darpa.mil/work-with-us/heilmeier-catechism
methodologies
Never guarantee success, at best mitigate risk

26. There is a near endless ‘galaxy of tools’ available
TO O LS & P RO C ESS

27. p e r s o n a l E x p e r i e n c e s
Unlikely to be in any book - they are real life choices
“I have never had a management role where I haven’t had to
assume the role as leader, champion and arbiter”

28. M a n a g e m e n t r e a l i t y
You are travelling at speed with incomplete vision
• Spec changes
• Mission creep
• Team changes
• Supplier failures
• Fickle customer
• Budget squeezes
• Market pressures
• Deadline changes
• Competing needs
• Transient support
• Technology change
• Order scale change
• Management changes
• Shareholder demands
• Strategic internal/customer changes
• Political and government changes
• Legal and environmental rulings
• Competing product offerings
• New price point negotiated
• Internal conflict of interest
• Unforeseen M&A activity
• New features demanded
• Budget/people squeezes
• Operating arena change
• Deliverables delayed
• Hidden agendas
• ++++

29. Appropriateness
Don’t use a sledge hammer to crack a walnut
Yo u m i g h t u s e P R I N C E
o r s o m e o t h e r f o r m a l
m e t h o d t o b u i l d a n
a i rc r a f t b u t n o t t o
b u y a p e n c i l ! !

30. s i t u a t i o n a w a r e n e s s
Remain flexible, adaptable and ready to change

31. C o m m u n i c a t i o n i s k e y
Might seem obvious/trivial but turns out to be difficult
• Never assume that people are telling you the full detail/facts/truth
• Never assume that people understand what you said and meant
• Targets are generally achieved/met by people bending the truth
• In general 3 - 5 KPIs extol the truth but >10 illicit falsehoods
• KPIs are very often achieved by people fiddling the numbers
• If 10 people are in a meeting then it is 10 different meetings
• Finance/sales/marketing, seldom have the correct numbers
• Personnel are there to observe you and not help and assist

32. CO M P L EX R EA L ITY
Formalisation methods cannot overcome scale
S o m e p r o j e c t s a r e
n o w s o l a r g e a n d
c o m p l e x t h e y
cannot be organised
and orchestrated by
hum an mi nds….
…i t is t he machines
t h a t d o a l l t h i s , a n d
i n t h e e x t r e m e , a
m a c h i n e m a y b e t h e
u l t i m a t e m a n a g e r
and organiser…

33. REAL Experiences
Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today
TAT 81980 project start
1986 cable into service - Retired 2002
Connecting UK - France - USA by the first transatlantic cable
Artificial Ocean
Quarry & Trawls
A fleet of 6 ships
Anchors & Chains
L a y i n g E q u i p m e n t
Monitoring Systems
Recovery Equipment
Shipboard Equipment
Accelerated Life Test
Submarine Cable Test
Measurement Systems
Laboratories
Clean Rooms
C h i p D e s i g n
Circuit Design
System Design
Chip Fabrication
Optical Fibre Test
Power Feed Design
Surge/Failure Testing
Soft Failure Monitoring
Undersea Repair Strategy
Cost ~ £350M
People ~ 3000
Countries = 4
Companies = 7
Sea depth < 4.5 km
Cable Span ~ 67000 km
Capacity = 2 x 280Mbit/s
Repeater span 41 - 65 km
Optical = 1.3 𝜇m 0.25dB/km

34. REAL Experiences
Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today
TAT 81980 project start
1986 cable into service - Retired 2002
Connecting UK - France - USA by the first transatlantic cable
Artificial Ocean
Quarry & Trawls
A fleet of 6 ships
Anchors & Chains
L a y i n g E q u i p m e n t
Monitoring Systems
Recovery Equipment
Shipboard Equipment
Accelerated Life Test
Submarine Cable Test
Measurement Systems
Laboratories
Clean Rooms
C h i p D e s i g n
Circuit Design
System Design
Chip Fabrication
Optical Fibre Test
Power Feed Design
Surge/Failure Testing
Soft Failure Monitoring
Undersea Repair Strategy
Cost ~ £350M
People ~ 3000
Countries = 4
Companies = 7
Sea depth < 4.5 km
Cable Span ~ 67000 km
Capacity = 2 x 280Mbit/s
Repeater span 41 - 65 km
Optical = 1.3 𝜇m 0.25dB/km
No Proven Business Case
DOH
!

35. Day 1 situation
Connect UK - France - USA optically
TAT 81980 no technology available, only a
statement of intent and a budget !!!

36. TAT 81980 all we had was an analogue
legacy of discrete technologies +++
Day 1 situation
Connect UK - France - USA optically

37. THE Biggest challenges
D e l e g a t i o n - p ro b l e m s o l v i n g - o r c h e s t ra t i o n
TAT 8Pe r f e c t i o n - t h e e n e m y o f p r o g r e s s
People - the biggest asset/nightmare

38. i t b e c a m e
A w h o l l y c o n n e c t e d p l a n e t
Internet
Science Network
Financial Network
Telephone Network
Engineering Network
Primary Wealth Manager
Logistics Control Network
+++++
Nervous System of The Planet

39. i t b e c a m eA new global mega-industry
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q61DHtgFqa0

40. 1998 Project start
1999 Started trading - Sold 2002
The first on-line travel agent in the EU - £0 - £1Bn in 4 years
Originated from my ABTA lecture in Marbella September 2008
First planning meeting October 2008
Funding of £55M raised in November 2008
First prototype system built December 2008
Open for business and trading in January 2009
Immediate growth @ 35$/ month continuing to 2002
Achieved £1Bn turnover (not valuation) by end of year 2003
REAL Experiences
Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today

41. 1995 Project start
1996 Started trading - Closed 2003
An ‘idea - to market incubator’ in Silicon Valley
People came to us with good ideas and technology but without the experience of how to create a
product and get it to market. We provided a 'soup to nuts' support infrastructure spanning idea
cultivation through to a full IPO.
ConceptLabs was a one stop shop for tech and business creatives.We took the pain away by providing
money, advice, skills, and management capability to help you build your company
Started by me and Rao Machiraju and 12 people out of Apple ATG who were ‘put out to grass’ by Steve Jobs
Simple Business Model: ConceptsLabs worked for a share of the companies created – we invested our
own money along side theVCs that supported us in this new and, at the time, highly innovative venture.
REAL Experiences
Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today

42. 2012 Project start
2015 Project Abandoned
A new acoustic solution to sniper spotting
Snipers kill people in war zones - more often than not civilians - and for target practice and fun
Existing methods had limited range and were easily ‘blinded’ by bombs, gunfire and screams
R&D by me and Graham Bank Ex Celestion, NXT Cambridge - a speculative venture
Our idea and invention was to create a new form of acoustic, rather than electronic, filtering
REAL Experiences
Recollections and reality spanning 1980 to Today
We succeeded, published and presented at conferences, but …we couldn’t convince investors
We never got past the ‘self funded’ demo model phase….and had to abandon the project….

43. A I & i n n ovat i o n
A primary tool of discovery and understanding
Analytics:
Medical
Security
Big Data
Political
Networks
Economic
Genomic
Proteomic
Diplomatic
Complexity
++++
We are way past the point where humans can
analyse complexity even on a small scale !
Design:
Chips
Devices
Systems
Networks
Behaviours
++++
Knowledge:
Veracity
Linking
Creation
Curation
Searching
Selection
++++
The machines are starting to innovate at lower
levels and where humans cannot!

44. R o b ot s t u d e n t
Learning from a master of the art
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6UxmpbSQGU
Robot/AI student and Master
compete - Katana to Katana

45. R o b ot s t u d e n t
Learning from a master of the art
CALIBRATION
Some will scoff at such apparently
simple achievements - but humans
take hours and hours of practice
to get this right..
…robots and AI could not do this
5 years ago, but now they do it in
just one pass…and then the get
better on every single go….
BIG Takeway
Robots & AI can learn and pefect
specific abilities 100 - 1000s of
times faster than humans

46. “When people are overwhelmed by big problems and fear - it is not our
job to add to the fear and panic - but to help craft a solution with them”
“It is easy to train machines and people to deal with the routine, but the
novel and the unexpected is much harder and demands the efforts of
multidisciplinary, and diverse, teams of people and machines”
including AI, Robotics, Computing Engines, Instrumentation & Networks
P r o f ess i o n a l i s m
Our responsibilities as managers, engineers, scientists

47. I must keep an
open mind !
I think and do
different!
I’m thinking of doing a
startup…. I work in an
old established
company…
F u n d a m e n t a l
Think, be different, and make a friend of risk

48. cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.biz
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videos, on this topic and
supporting topics GOTO
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