How to Build a Truth Engine

1. HOW TO BUILD A ‘TRUTH ENGINE’ P e t e r C o c h r a n e c o c h r a n e . o r g . u k

2. WORLD Loss of freedom of speech Legal system collapse Societal Breakdown Loss of Liberty Dictatorship Police State Despotism ++++ Lies Half Truths Misinformation Perceptual Distortion Character Assassination Social Distortions Disillusionment Rumour Mills Dogma Distrust Fake News Censorship Media Control Societal Division Democratic Failure Government Intervention

3. S U P R E M U M? B e t t e r t h a n a n y o t h e r U S P re s i d e n t e ve r ! T h e ‘ l e a d e r ’ o f t h e f r e e w o r l d h a s s e t a n e w s t a n d a r d t h a t o t h e r s n o w f e e l f r e e t o f o l l o w ! We n o w h a v e a p a n d e m i c o f l i e s i n p o l i t i c s , m e d i a a n d b u s i n e s s + + +

4. USA LEADING THE WAY ? Social division, breakdown of law and order The Cult of Trump

5. USA LEADING THE WAY ? Social division, breakdown of law and order The Cult of Trump

6. E N E M Y W I T H I N Routine lies and info/data distortion Leaders Bankers Politicians Managers Activists Media

7. E N E M Y W I T H O U T Using a new; powerful weapon of war Ideological subversion: Changing the perceptions of populations to such an extent that despite an abundance of data/information no one can to come to sensible conclusions to defend themselves/families, their community/country” Demoralisation (15 to 20 years) Re-educate one generation of students and change their perceptions and thinking Destabilisation (2 - 5 years) Target essential structural elements of a nation: economy, foreign relations, and defence systems Normalisation (4 weeks) Take over = people living under a new ideology and reality Four Basic Stages Crisis (6 weeks) Violent disruption to, and change of: power, structure, and economy

8. LANDSCAPE of liars Banks Media Moguls Groups Criminals Politicians Terrorists Individuals Institutions Industrialists Rogue States Governments Political Factions +++++ Hackers Despots Dictators Reporters Executives Extremists Companies Conspirators The Paranoid The Vulnerable The Disaffected The Mischievous The Disadvantaged +++++ Elusive Amoral Corrupt Dynamic Dedicated Unethical Disguised Nefarious Transient Relentless Dedicated Networked Distributed Untraceable Multi-Media Evolutionary Camouflaged Multi-Faceted Multi-Dimensional

9. T H E N AT U R E O F T RUT H Truth = A Dynamic Binary Truth = Can be Certain Truth = Can be Dynamic Truth = Can be Uncertain Concatenating 1/2 truths lends great credibility…

10. EXTREME W EAPONS S p o o f O b a m a s a y i n g a n y t h i n g !

11. COMPOUNDED

12. H U M A N I G N O RA N C E Apparently unlimited and unbounded It takes far less thought, effort and energy to dismiss wisdom and deny a truth than blindly accepting the ridiculous Truths are hard won: and often very difficult to establish and accept. They can demand deep thought, energy, and freedom of thought, an acceptance of debate, reason and education!

13. H U M A N I G N O RA N C E Apparently unlimited and unbounded It takes far less thought, effort and energy to dismiss wisdom and deny a truth than blindly accepting the ridiculous Truths are hard won: and often very difficult to establish and accept. They can demand deep thought, energy, and freedom of thought, an acceptance of debate, reason and education! Oh, and by-the-way: man d i d n o t l a n d o n t h e m o o n ! I t w a s a l l a government spoof and it was filmed in a studio!!

14. P r o u d t o b e i g n o r a n T Knowledge & expertise derided

15. Bigger and propagate faster, further, and deeper than the truth and validated information….and now growing in volume, extremism and span Sim ple & Easy to Grasp Plays to DispositionsLIES & FAKE NEWS Creates social division, social instability, unease, dissatisfaction, paranoia, extremism, rebellion, social instability leading to violence… No Thinking Required Reinforces Prejudices

16. Bigger and propagate faster, further, and deeper than the truth and validated information….and now growing in volume, extremism and span Sim ple & Easy to Grasp Plays to DispositionsLIES & FAKE NEWS Creates social division, social instability, unease, dissatisfaction, paranoia, extremism, rebellion, social instability leading to violence… No Thinking Required Reinforces Prejudices A lie can travel round the world and back again whilst truth is lacing up its boots MarkTwain 1921

17. FAKE NEWS

18. MergED

19. I G N O R A N C E & L I ES T h e b i g g e s t t h r e a t & c h a l l e n g e e v e r ?

20. Science, Discovery and Fundamental Truths Technology, Engineering and Infrastructures Farming, Food, Industries Institutions and Defence B a l a n c i n g A C T Government Media, Society No place for lies & dubious truths

21. Science, Discovery and Fundamental Truths Technology, Engineering and Infrastructures Farming, Food, Industries Institutions and Defence Lies Untruths Errors Guesses Distortions Cross Checks Evidence Base Understanding Knowledge Theories Models Tests B a l a n c i n g A C T Government Media, Society No place for lies & dubious truths

22. N ot h i n g i s i s o l at e d E v e r y t h i n g a n d e v e r y o n e i s c o n n e c t e d Ecology Economics Technology Society Care Markets Industry Education Policing Defence Commerce Security Logistics ing Co ies “In networked and fast moving world simple minded thinking, approximations, ignorance and lies are dangerous - they destroy companies and countries” Trade

23. W h at To D o ? Fight fire with fire: use the same technologies/techniques but on a fully automated and global scale Educating people to think may be fundamentally impossible! Filtering the web of non validated content is/ may be possible but not risk free!

24. E X P L O I TAT I O N A new; powerful weapon of war Continually scan the internet: - Purge errors - Flag lies & liars - Publish veracity ratings - Remove/Attenuate rogue users - Block/Remove/Attenuate extreme channels - Identify/Advertise regular/persistent offenders - Attenuate/Attack/Disable criminal/rogue states - Detect an disconnect postings by AI lie generators - Isolate and mute rogue states and criminals

25. E X P L O I TAT I O N A new; powerful weapon of war Continually scan the internet: - Purge errors - Flag lies & liars - Publish veracity ratings - Remove/Attenuate rogue users - Block/Remove/Attenuate extreme channels - Identify/Advertise regular/persistent offenders - Attenuate/Attack/Disable criminal/rogue states - Detect an disconnect postings by AI lie generators - Isolate and mute rogue states and criminals Key Enabler = TRUTH ENGINES

26. T H E B I G Q U ES T I O N S Can we accurately and reliably identify truths, half truths, distortions, falsehoods and lies ? Can we establish new framework and metrics ? Can we make judgement calls fast enough ? Can we block/attenuate the pernicious ? Can we continuously cleanse the net ? Can we educate society to the risks ?

27. T H E B I G Q U ES T I O N S Can we accurately and reliably identify truths, half truths, distortions, falsehoods and lies ? Can we establish new framework and metrics ? Can we make judgement calls fast enough ? Can we block/attenuate the pernicious ? Can we continuously cleanse the net ? Can we educate society to the risks ? ✔ ✔ ✔ ? ✔ ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

28. W H Y T r u t h E n g i n e s Easy to conﬁrm facts - conjecture is harder Vital for: • Politics • Society • Science • Farming • Internet • Security • Industry • Education • Healthcare • Commerce • Government • ++++ “In most arenas truth is dynamic and changes with our ability to test & measure” “Accepted truths advance toward an absolute state with our ability to challenge them” Ignorance & Uncertainty Flat Spheroid Flat Spheroid Oblate Spheroid Dynamic Oblate Spheroid Precision Measurement & Truth

29. 1) Blatant: Knowingly contrived and delivered information 2) White: Knowingly contrived in order to be polite or to stop someone from being upset by the truth 3) Propagating: Repeat a stated lie without fact checking 4) Falsehood: To knowingly distort the truth or facts 5) Misinterpretation: Knowingly or unknowingly distort the truth or facts 6) Error: Innocently distort situations, events, truth or facts 7) Latent Error: Representing dynamic situations, occurrences, truth or facts on the basis of old information L I ES

30. E x p e r i m e n ts 8) Bayesian Inference: Detecting a lie from linguistic patterns and previous behaviours of individuals and populations? 9) Simple AI: Can we detect and/or identify linguistic patterns and/or previous behaviours of individuals and populations? 10) Correlations: Can we detect repeating patterns for known lies and liars? 11) Trending Analysis: Can we establish historical analysis of past reporting as a reliable measure of accuracy? 12) Lie Recognition: Can we devise metrics from (8-11) above to detect an lie and then categorise it aka (1-7) ?

31. TRUTH Engine Is it possible to build one?

32. TRUTH Engine What do we have & what do we have to develop ? How big is this problem ? Does it look tractable ? Might we crack it ? Is it really mission critical ? What is it going to cost ? How long will it take ? Truth is vital for our planet and the survival of all life forms including us ✔ Is it possible to build one?

33. W h at W e N e e d Print Radio TV On ScreenSpokes People Context - Meaning Extractor - Inference Engine Fact Checkers - Primary Source Identiﬁcation/Proximity Style - Behaviours, History, Publications Analysis Trending Analysis - Veracity % Rating ✔ ✘ ✔ ✔

34. CO R E QU EST I O NS Veracity, accuracy, credibility testing Who is the author ? Why did they publish ? Who do they work for ? What is their reputation ? Are they paid/sponsored ? Do they have a following ? Do they cite trusted sources ? Do they have relevant expertise ? What is their purpose/motivation ? Is the material current/outdated ? What site/s is/are being used ? ++++++

35. CO R E QU EST I O NS Veracity, accuracy, credibility testing Who is the author ? Why did they publish ? Who do they work for ? What is their reputation ? Are they paid/sponsored ? Do they have a following ? Do they cite trusted sources ? Do they have relevant expertise ? What is their purpose/motivation ? Is the material current/outdated ? What site/s is/are being used ? ++++++ Corroboration ! Fact Checking ! Correlation ! Likelihood ! Conﬁdence Trending ! History ! C O U L D W E A U T O M A T E A L L T H I S

36. S o u r c e S e a r c h Original accounts v repeats Identify primary sources and qualiﬁed reports… A very small number of sources can trigger a massive amount of activity!

37. T H E DY N A M I CS Information spreading world-wide Identify primary sources and all qualiﬁed reports… not always possible…especially when a story is developing rapidly

38. T H E DY N A M I CS Information spreading world-wide Errors, distortions, interpretations, air time availability, sensationalism, number of reports disconnected from any real significance, sees distorted perceptions Identify primary sources and all qualiﬁed reports… not always possible…especially when a story is developing rapidly

39. C h e c k i n g Easy To Do ? Snopes Politifact FactCheck Wikipedia ProPublica MBFCNews OpenSecrets NewsBusters MediaMatters FactCheck.org HoaxSlayer.net TruthOrFiction.com Washington Post Fact Checker +++++ People intensive

40. C h e c k i n g Easy To Do ? Snopes Politifact FactCheck Wikipedia ProPublica MBFCNews OpenSecrets NewsBusters MediaMatters FactCheck.org HoaxSlayer.net TruthOrFiction.com Washington Post Fact Checker +++++ People intensive AGGREGATION Fact Checking Organisations Now exceed 160 World-Wide Collaboration, aggregation, sharing, and networking between checker projects underway in >50 countries

41. C h e c k i n g Easy To Do ? Snopes Politifact FactCheck Wikipedia ProPublica MBFCNews OpenSecrets NewsBusters MediaMatters FactCheck.org HoaxSlayer.net TruthOrFiction.com Washington Post Fact Checker +++++ People intensive AGGREGATION Fact Checking Organisations Now exceed 160 World-Wide Collaboration, aggregation, sharing, and networking between checker projects underway in >50 countries R i p e f o r A u t o m a t i o n

42. TWO FoR you TO TRY ! Both are fast and powerful - primary tools for building an automated truth engine !

43. Across multiple sources - locations C o r r e l at i o n Weighted sources by reputation/history: BBC = 0.95 Bloomberg = 0.90 FoxNews = 0.55 BreitBart = 0.05 +++ +++ Twitter = 0.01 Early R&D phase but of great interest to Google, IBM, CIA, FBI, et al

44. TESTED resources ≈ ≈ Accurate 80% ~ 45% Accurate

45. TESTED resources ≈ ≈ Accurate 80% ~ 45% Accurate A F U N C T I O N O F T R U T H B E I N G D Y N A M I C

46. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES

47. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html http://www.davesweboﬂies.com/dwol.htm https://

48. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html http://www.davesweboﬂies.com/dwol.htm https:// Not hard tocompile butrequires acoordinatedAUTOMATED global efforT

49. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html http://www.davesweboﬂies.com/dwol.htm https:// Human LEGAL POLITIcS AND BEUROCRACY CONSTRAINTS ARE THE PRIMELIMITERS Not hard tocompile butrequires acoordinatedAUTOMATED global efforT

50. ANALYSIS Could we rank all sources, individuals and media in order of truthfulness and accuracy based on validated facts and information over a significant time by a u t o m a t i n g t h e process to give a confidence rating or uncertainty % ? 100%50%0% 100% 50% 0%

51. ANALYSIS Could we rank all sources, individuals and media in order of truthfulness and accuracy based on validated facts and information over a significant time by a u t o m a t i n g t h e process to give a confidence rating or uncertainty % ? 100%50%0% 100% 50% 0% C o u l d w e A U T O e v a l u a t e t h e E n t i r e w e b i n r e a l t i m e n o n s t o p

52. s e n s at i o n a l i s m F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s Feb 27, 2017 Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129 “disaster-related deaths” 1368 have been listed as "related to the nuclear power plant” One worker is acknowledged to have died from radiation induced illness The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people

53. s e n s at i o n a l i s m F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s Feb 27, 2017 Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129 “disaster-related deaths” 1368 have been listed as "related to the nuclear power plant” One worker is acknowledged to have died from radiation induced illness The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people Assessing cases like this is easy but perplexing as truth is not important to such sources

54. T H E DY N A M I CS Identify primary sources and qualified reports… Errors, distortions, interpretations, air time availability, sensationalism, number of reports disconnected from any real significance, sees distorted perceptions Information spreading world-wide at a server level - 2D only Identify primary sources and qualified reports… very difficult

55. T H E DY N A M I CS Identify primary sources and qualified reports… Errors, distortions, interpretations, air time availability, sensationalism, number of reports disconnected from any real significance, sees distorted perceptions Information spreading world-wide at a server level - 2D only Identify primary sources and qualified reports… very difficult B O T H c a s e s s a w s i g n i f i c a n t e r r o r p r o p a g a t i o n

56. 774 Deaths in 37 countries 457 Deaths ~11,000 Deaths ~300 Deaths Mole Hills & MOUNTAINS H5N1 = 10 Deaths NO - we are not all going to die! 3 DeathsZip 42 Deaths Not Proven

57. DANGEROUS POLITICAL AND MEDIA MANTRA Facts and Truths don't actually matter! People repeat falsehoods so often that you/they believe them This is the “illusory truth effect,” where people equate repetition with truth Exploited by advertisers, marketeers, politicians, despots et al to the nth degree

58. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E Applied across all sources continuously Reported Event

59. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E Applied across all sources continuously Reported Event Established Truth

60. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E Applied across all sources continuously Reported Event Established Truth Accuracy Rating 100% 85% 95%90%

61. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E Applied across all sources continuously Reported Event Established Truth Accuracy Rating 100% 85% 95%90% All Time Aggregated Trust Rating100% 95% 91.7% 92.5%

62. T R U t h Q u A l i t y Degree of Lie Error Satire Parody Falshood Distortion Manipulation Misrepresentation 100% True Time Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4 BBC, PBS Times, NY Times, Reuters, Economist, WSJ Washington Post et al Fact check, recant, recall restate, refine, make every effort to get to the truth

63. T R U t h Q u A l i t y Degree of Lie Error Satire Parody Falshood Distortion Manipulation Misrepresentation 100% True Time Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4 BBC, PBS Times, NY Times, Reuters, Economist, WSJ Washington Post et al Fact check, recant, recall restate, refine, make every effort to get to the truth Sun, Daily Mail F o x , B u z z f e e d , Breitbart, Trump, Infowars et al No fact checking, political agenda, truth has little or no value - perception distortion is the goalIsolated Erroneous Reports Beware Russia Today et al

64. M a n u a l R es u lts Degree of Lie Error Satire Parody Falshood Distortion Manipulation Misrepresentation 100% True Time Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4 Washington Post ~ 98.4% BBC, Economist ~ 98.2% Times, Reuters ~ 98.1% NY Times, WSJ ~ 97.5%

65. M a n u a l R es u lts Degree of Lie Error Satire Parody Falshood Distortion Manipulation Misrepresentation 100% True Time Report 1 Report 2 Report 3 Report 4 Washington Post ~ 98.4% BBC, Economist ~ 98.2% Times, Reuters ~ 98.1% NY Times, WSJ ~ 97.5% A u t o m a t i n g T h i s i s n o t g o i n g t o b e e a s y b u t i t l o o k s p o s s i b l e

66. T H E A M B I T I O N Facts Ethical History Honesty Pedigree Checked Rectitude Traceable Authentic Legitimate Actuality Genuine Veracity Verified Correct Certain Maxin Exact ++++ Misrepresentation Misinterpretation Disinformation Manipulation Subterfuge Vilification Ignorance Invention Mistakes Delusion Rumour Malice ++++ Myth Fable Fraud Errors Fiction Forgery Distortion Deception Falsehood Fabrication Inaccuracy Dishonesty Falsehoods Data Monitoring, Farming, Tracking, Measures, Metrics, Analysis, Decisions and Confidence Truth Lies A I ? Decisions to be automated & fast The only technology we have that might just do it is AI

67. SO W HERE ARE W E ? Many components exist or we can see how we might build them ! Context/ Meaning Extractor Inference Engine Primary Source Identiﬁer

68. SO W HERE ARE W E ? Many components exist or we can see how we might build them ! Context/ Meaning Extractor Inference Engine Primary Source Identiﬁer Fact Checkers

69. SO W HERE ARE W E ? Many components exist or we can see how we might build them ! Context/ Meaning Extractor Inference Engine Primary Source Identiﬁer Fact Checkers Style History Publications Behaviours Library of Lies

70. SO W HERE ARE W E ? Many components exist or we can see how we might build them ! Context/ Meaning Extractor Inference Engine Primary Source Identiﬁer Fact Checkers Style History Publications Behaviours Library of Lies Trending Analysis Veracity Rating

71. H U M A N B I A S Build multiple Truth Engines Different configurations, components, AI Run continuous comparisons on the same data/cases and to identify anomalies We are talking joint human-AI opinion, judgement and assessment !

72. Critical Thinking Is it now nullified ?? Dominant Mode ? “I’m right you are wrong, and so you are an idiot” What happened to the art of debate, tolerance and thinking ?

73. Critical Thinking Is it now nullified ?? Dominant Mode ? “I’m right you are wrong, and so you are an idiot” What happened to the art of debate, tolerance and thinking ? O p I n i o n h a s l i t t l e v a l u e

74. Critical Thinking Is it now nullified ?? Dominant Mode ? “I’m right you are wrong, and so you are an idiot” What happened to the art of debate, tolerance and thinking ? O p I n i o n h a s l i t t l e v a l u e Q u a l i f i e d A n a l y t i c s c a n n o w h a v e e v e n l e s s

75. Not an option for science, the law engineering, medicine, industry, banking, commerces and any society aspiring to prosperity, peace and longevity Bigotry: intolerance towards those who hold different opinions from oneself BELIEF SYSTEMS Damaging decisions based on false data can only lead to a societal collapse D i s c o u ra g e t h i n k i n g a n d d e b a t e

77. T H E U LT I M AT E F I X D o w e n e e d a R E D o r a B l u e p i l l ?

79. The Voight-Kampﬀ Test - Replicant orHuman? Rachel Blade Runner 1982 Ridley Scott Thank You www. cochrane.org.uk www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane

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