1. Future
Telecommunications
Challenges & opportunities
Professor Peter Cochrane OBE, DSc

2. Future
Telecommunications
Challenges & opportunities
Professor Peter Cochrane OBE, DSc
Future Communications >6G
NetworldEurope, Lisbon, 07/11/23

3. ChallengeS
An industry riven by old
thinking & business models
Massive infrastructure and
huge investments
Slow to change always
on the back foot
OTT operators are now
prime service providers
of customer needs
Energy, real estate, and
manpower top heavy

4. KEY PROBLEMS (1)
Telcos can’t quite believe growth
in customer demand is ‘endless’

5. KEY PROBLEMS (2) Asking really dumb questions,
and poor business thinking
Why would a customer want:
64 kbit/s
256 kbit/s
2 Mbit/s
10 Mbit/s
100 Mbit/s
1 Gbit/s
10 Gbit/s
????
And what would they do with it?
There is no proven business case?
Missed opportunities: Skype, Zoom,
Teams, Clouds, Streaming, ISP, Apps
Cyber Security, Tower-Free Mobility ++

6. KEY PROBLEMS (5)
A reliance on suppliers
Death of R&D, deep understanding,
and the rise of retail thinking
Outsourced services
Follow the herd
Short termism
Contractors
“Everyone loves a
dumb customer”
“Box shifting’ thinking/culture”

7. Specifics
Radical thinking (?) based on projections, engineering,
economics, sustainability, and what is now possible
“Bandwidth is now in
fi
nite & free (wireless +
fi
bre) - we can a
ff
ord to use/waste
it to reduce signal processing complexity, save on equipment, and energy”
“When Bandwidth is free - Distance is irrelevant - and Time is not chargeable
-
fl
at fee service provision greatly reduces billing costs and allows customers
to buy, set up, and control services directly”

8. local Loop Decades of wasted investments, opportunities,
powered by a determination not to go FTTH/P
$Bns wasted upgrading copper
networks fundamentally unable
to provide the required service
PONs conceived when
fi
bre >$20/m,
today is <$0.05/m - now far cheaper
to install FTTH with a dedicated end
-to-end
fi
bre link
Shared
fi
bre (PONs) are bit rate
limited, asymmetric, and unable
to satisfy future demands

9. local Loop
Active splitters and distribution points consume
signi
fi
cant amounts of energy, reduce reliability,
limit bandwidth & introduce service asymmetry
Optical
fi
bre cables occupy less duct
space and easily replace old copper
cables to deliver future proof networking

10. T o b e c l e a r
Lean, low energy, high reliability, future proof
S i m p l e , v e r y l o w c o s t , h i g h
r e l i a b i l i t y , v e r y l o w e n e r g y ,
f u t u r e p r o o f , a n d f a r f e w e r
b u i l d i n g s
D e d i c a t e d f i b r e ( s ) /
c u s t o m e r / b u i l d i n g
W i r e l e s s d o n g l e o n f i b r e
m o d e m f o r 4 & 5 G + W i F i

11. •>1Gbit/s bi-directional
•100% ducted - no overhead
•WiFi + 3G dongle per terminal
•Future proof and low energy
•Reduced OPEX, CAPEX, Faults
•Profitability improved <12 months
•Company turnover doubled in < 5 years
•New services - 50% of income from overseas
•Island experienced an in
fl
ux of new business
•Dedicated Fibre per customer
J T F T T H 2012

12. W i r e l e ss r e ac h
Topology, buildings, trees, re
fl
ection limiters
As we move up the spectrum these
coverage limiting factors (+) become
more severe necessitating far more
towers and hotspots!
We can contemplate evermore serious
problems at 26GHz (+) with 6G
An even bigger & overriding problem
is looming due to the energy demands
of the signal processing at each node
JT has the option to deploy 4,5,6G
dongles in every home and o
ffi
ce to
achieve 100% coverage “Perhaps an untapped option is raw wireless over
fi
bre”

13. Direct Path
Re
fl
ected
Steered
Ampli
fi
ed
Controlled
Penetration
Ampli
fi
cation
Contained
WLAN Signal
Wall = Large
Active/Passive
Array
S M A R T
Ac t i v e
S u r fac e s
Another potential solution, beam
steering smart materials that direct
signal energy to where it is most required,
but it is not clear what the energy cost will be!

14. 6G
5G
4G
3G
2G
1G 2G 3G
2.5G
Voice centric
Same genome 3.5G
~9 years
4G 5G
Data centric
New genome
6G
Smarts centric
Radical genome !
7G?
~3kW
~1kW
G
r
e
a
t
e
r
B
W
M
o
r
e
D
a
t
a
L
o
w
e
r
L
a
t
e
n
c
y
M
o
r
e
T
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w
e
r
s
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e
n
s
e
r
N
e
t
H
i
g
h
e
r
P
o
w
e
r
<100kW?
~9 years
~9 years
~9 years
~0.5kW
~10-20kW
IMPLICATIONS

15. TIP OF THE ICEBeRG ?
THE BIG PICture
S m a r t C i t I E S

16. SMART HIGHWAYS

17. SMART SECTORS

18. N e t w o r k e d f o r L I F E
This redefines the expression - ‘Always On-Line’

19. Why?
To save the planet and humanity by
powering sustainability!
We have no suitable networks or
wireless systems & technologies!
We will amplify the Cyber Attack
surface by orders of magnitude we
have no e
ff
ective defence !

20. I4.o: Kernel
New materials, sciences, tech,
engineering, processes, robotics,
intelligences, thinking…
BIO-TECH nano-TECH
AI
AL
QC
Robotics
Superior metals, plastics,
ceramics, electronics and
eletro-optics, mechtranics,
sensors and actuators +++
High efficiency processing
+ forming @ very low energy
& material cost >95% 3/4R

21. IoT
The IoT as the nervous system of
societies, resources & the planet
BIO-TECH nano-TECH
Lower energy
Lower waste
Less friction
New materials
New industries
New processes
New capabilities
I 4 . 0 c ata ly t i c
s ta r t i n g p o i n t
AI
AL
QC
Robotics

22. S E L F H E A L I N G

23. D U M B t o S M A R T
Wired and wireless vehicle IoT
D o z e n s o f s e n s o r s ,
r e c o r d e r s , c o n t r o l
u n i t s , a g g r e g a t e d b y
o n - b o a rd a n a l y s i s w i t h
I o T / I n t e r n e t c o n n e c t
v i a m u l t i p l e c h a n n e l s
WiFi,3, 4, 5G Direct
to Service Centre
Communication
Direct Car-to-Car
Avoiding 3, 4, 5G Congestion

24. R E TA I L
W A S T E
We over manufacture/produce due
to outdated logistics systems !

25. Categories
Devices
Sensors
Vehicles
Systems
Buildings
Wearables
Appliances
Components
Infrastructure
Function
Safety
Security
Logistics
Inventories
Monitoring Use
Industrial Control
Monitoring Health
Historical Records
Environmental Control
Purpose
Repair
ReUse
Recycle
RePurpose
Materials Recovery
Environmental Policing
Performance Assurance
Maintenance Scheduling
++++
THE Categorising of
T H I N G S i s E n d l e s s
Lists of this kind see estimates
of 30 - 100 Bn IoT Things

26. 2000 04 08 12 16 2020
Initial Over
Optimism
Corrective
Pessimism
50
10
20
30
40
Actuality Following
Moore’s
Commercial IoT
‘Things’ Forecast
2030 - 50 looks to BE
a d i f f e r e n t p i c t u r e

27. LoRaWan 4/5G/LTE WiFi BlueTooth ZigNee
Range ~20km ~10km ~100m ~50m ~50m
BitRate ~50kb/s ~1Mbit/s ~500Mbit/s ~1Mbit/s ~200kb/s
Power Low High Medium Low Low
Topology Star Star Star-Mesh
P2P, Star,
Mesh, Broadcast
Star
Cost/Module ~$10 ~$20 ~$5 ~$3
~$15
sample IoT wireless
All energy and space hungry, too expensive, too
complex, & do not fit future operational needs

28. Recorded power
received over a
24 hour period
Mehdawi (2013). Spectrum
Occupancy Survey HULL
Artificial spectrum crowding
DUE To old wireless model

29. Allocated Bandwidth
Active Bandwidth
Band Occupancy
=
Even VHF & UHF Seldom
> 20%
Occupancy
So FULL YET
So EMPTY !

30. O2
O2
H2O
H2O
<1.0% <0.01%
A natural
fi
lter for high
density short distance
networking
50
10
dB/km 1
0.1
0.01
0.0010
10 20 30 GHz 100 200 400
Occupancy <10%
NO spectrum Shortage!

31. Degrees of
f r e e d o m
S/N
Frequency
Time
I = k.B.T.log2(1+kS/N)
Invisible @ >10dB below the thermal noise
Think information volume
and not signal space !
The same information conveyed by different
combinations of S/N , BW and Time
100% digital realisation, ultra low energy (µW- pW)
signalling << thermal noise over very short distances
with little/no control of frequency occupancy

32. BW ~ 500MHz
U W B - T O - H y p e r ( H W B )
All digital no analogue - mixers, amplifies, filters
UWB
HWB Hyper Wide Band
BW ~ 50GHz
Negates phase noise, oscillator stability, scattering, interference,
reflections, improves security and link resilience…
<1bit/Hz
<<1bit/Hz

33. Active Node
Repeater Node
Last Hop Node
NOTE 1: A simplified 3 hop
network is shown for clarity -
5 hop limits may be ideal…
Last Hop Vector sees
no further propagation
Aggregating Access Node
Common practice depicts nets as 2D, static,
and planar, which they are not! The grey
layer indicates further hidden dimensions.
CoNceptual
IOT MESHNET

34. CoNceptual
S I M U L AT I O N
In this simple (all nodes are equal) simulation
the predominance of dynamic clustering is
soon evident having started from a random
distribution

35. So what Of
S e c u r i t y
Nothing from our past
fi
ts the bill
and we need something new!

36. The Iot will magnify
the attack surface
We are already losing the cyber
war hands down and the ‘Dark
Side’ earnings are now over
$28Tn per year
Legacy thinking and tech
will see us wide open to
attack and completely
defenceless
AI must replace humans
in this domain - and we
need a new operating
philosophy

37. Auto-immunity
Mirrors biological forebears
ICs
ISPs
WiFi
Hubs
LANs
Cards
Traffic
Servers
Circuits
Devices
Internet
Networks
Organisations
Companies
Platforms
Groups
People
Mobile
Fixed
Autonomous and evolutionary
Relentless everywhere 365 x 24 x 7
Can
W
E EMULATE THIS
BIO
Phalange IN
THE
SILICON
W
ORLD

38. Broadcasting
Malware
Responding
with updated
protection Wider
Network
Updated
Latest
Solution
Update
Dynamic isolation of infected
devices and components
leading to repair
A mix of clean and infected
Auto-immunity

39. Prediction
/Surprise
“The IoT will see the spontaneous emergence
of new forms of Arti
fi
cial Intelligence”
Things that think want to link
and
Things that link want to think

40. Natural
Process
Linking at an atomic, molecular, cellular and
organism level occurs throughout the biological
world, and it happens in the electronic world too !
Things that think want to link
and
Things that link want to think

41. T H E L a s t B I G
Q u e s t i o n ?
“Will we be smart enough to recognise
new intelligences when they
spontaneously appear”

42. Th
e
fu
ture belongs
to
th
e
most adaptable and
th
ose
who dare !
Th
ank You
petercochrane.com