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Digital Destinies


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Predicting digital futures a sector at a time is relatively easy, but in a networked world driven by accelerating technologies this is insufficient. Sectors do not operate in isolation, they are connected, and as technology advances the boundaries morph, with whole industries overtaken and pushed aside. At the same time old jobs lose relevance and new skills are required, but in aggregate ever more people are employed. Today there is no country, no matter how big or rich, that has all the raw materials and people required to power its industries, healthcare systems, farming and food production, or indeed educational institutions. Insourcing, outsourcing, and globalisation are the result, and they are about to be augmented by global networking of facilities, skills and abilities

We have never known or understood so much about our world, and nor have we enjoyed the capabilities bestowed by modern technology. But keeping up to date, acquiring the right knowledge and skills is a growing challenge as ‘the world of the simple’ evaporates and complexity takes over.

“There are plenty of simple solutions to complex problems, but they are all wrong”

Preparing for change whilst coping with the status quo now presents many new challenges way beyond human ability and we have to partner with machines to aid our decisions. For organisations it is essential to find and employ the right people, and for people it is necessary to become ever more flexible and adaptable whilst continually acquiring pertinent capabilities.

“AI and robots are not going to push us aside, but they will change everything”

No man is an island, and neither is any country, company or institution. A digital and connected global interdependency now governs the fortunes of our species as technology empowers us at every level. In this presentation we highlight a small sample of the technologies on the horizon, the jobs they will destroy, enhance and create.

Published in: Technology

Digital Destinies

  1. 1. Digital Destinies The coming symbiosis of mankind & technology Peter Cochrane
  2. 2. M a n v m a c h i n e Science Fiction and Hollywood nightmares
  3. 3. r e a l i t y C h e c K Machines beat us at Chess, GO & Poker
  4. 4. l e a r n i n g Almost like a young child
  5. 5. HUMAN REACTION Why oh why do we think we are unique ?
  6. 6. W i t h o u t D I G I T E C H We would have and know nothing! Technology C hanges Everything
  7. 7. Hypothesis To a c h i e v e g l o b a l s t a b i l i t y a n d p e a c e : “ We n e e d t o s t o p p r o d u c i n g m o r e a n d m o r e f o r t h e f e w … . a n d s t a r t p r o v i d i n g s u f f i c i e n t f o r t h e m a n y ” O u r o n l y h o p e : “ E m b r a c i n g n e w t e c h n o l o g y a n d p r o c e s s e s i n c l u d i n g b i o t e c , n a n o t e c , r o b o t i c s , A I a n d n e t w o r k i n g ” P e o p l e m o v e m e n t a n d g l o b a l i s a t i o n i s a l s o e s s e n t i a l !
  8. 8. w hat w e know for sure - T h e r e s o u r c e s o f p l a n e t e a r t h a r e f i n i t e - O u r s o c i e t i e s a r e d e n u d i n g e v e r y t h i n g - To d a y ’ s g r e e n a g e n d a s a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t - G l o b a l w a r m i n g i s v i s i b l y h a p p e n i n g - M o d e r n s o c i e t i e s a r e n o t s u s t a i n a b l e - E v e r y t h i n g i s g e t t i n g m o r e c o m p l e x - We s l e e p w a l k i n t o b i g p r o b l e m s - R e v e r s e g e a r i s n o t a n o p t i o n ! Technology/society only progress in one direction - to stop or go backwards would entail a terrible cost
  9. 9. A tyranny of SIMPLE - A s s u m p t i o n s - M e a s u r e s - T h i n k i n g - M o d e l s - D a t a E v o l v e d f o r a n s l o w c h a n g i n g a n a l o g u e w o r l d - w e c a n c o p e w i t h 3 - 7 i d e a s a t t h e s a m e t i m e “There are lots of simple solutions to complex problems but they are all wrong”
  10. 10. • Raw Data • Meta Data • Small Data • B I G D a t a E v e r y s e c t o r i s a w a s h / o v e r w h e l m e d W hat w e HAVE TODAY W h a t w e a c t u a l l y n e e d : B I G U N D E R S T A N D I N G
  11. 11. “Helicopters didn’t fly upside down…but they do now”
  12. 12. A l d o us H ux l ey “Would be amazed that we buy and install our own microphones and cameras…. “…and we are disappointed when people are not listening and watching…” g eo rg e o rw e l l
  13. 13. SYSTEMS OF THINKING f “We have created a world in which we are fundamentally challenged by non- linearity and chaos…and we need the help that only our machines can furnish” Linear Poor Recall Finite memory Limited capacity Constrained utility Slow processing Slow evolution Inaccurate Illogical Reactive Non-linear Inconsistant Poor recall Instinctive Emotional realisation Sensory - Dexterity - Ambulation - Concentration - Tenacity - Stamina Energy - Focus - Attention ++++H u m a n l i m i t a t i o n s
  14. 14. NEW Machines & AI The biggest advance in human capabilities….giving us new ways of thinking and complex problem solving… “New technologies always create more capabilities, and a demand for more people - they never destroy the labour market - it is o u r i n a b i l i t y t o m a n a g e t h e transition from the old to the new that is the big problem”!
  15. 15. W A R G A M I N G Artificial LIFE Computer Modelling M at e r i a l S c i e n c e Clouds B I G D A T A S M A L L D A T A BYOD BMOB DIY IT Sensors Robots C y b e r Security B i g G est GA M ES I N TOW N ? Nano Bio Simulation A I I o T A u t o I m m u n i t y We only have time for a very small sample of the key elements Analytics Social Nets B l o c k C h a i n s o c i o l o g y o f M a c h i n m s & T h i n g s UWB Sporadic Nets MMI VR A R
  16. 16. the font of all Futures BioTech NanoTech AI A triumvirate of tech for workable sustainabilities The primary hotspot for the 21C New materials New industries New processes New capabilities Lower energy Lower waste Less friction
  17. 17. NEW materials
  18. 18. M e t a l , P l a s t i c , C o n c r e t e , E l e c t r o n i c C i r c u i t s S E L F H E A L I N G M at e r i a ls
  19. 19. N o t h i n g s t i c k s a l w a y s d r y a n d c l e a n Hydrophobic Coatings
  20. 20. Self cleaning Printed panels Colour programmable Self repairing to a point Integrated energy storage feasible Engineering Not possible yet - but certainly feasible
  21. 21. SOUND WITH NO MOVING PARTS A pending revolution in surround sound & cancellation
  22. 22. Artificial intelligence
  23. 23. >20M texts available <3M selected for analysis Argument abstracted pro - con No human resource can do this !
  24. 24. I B M W ATS O N H u m a n s ov e r t a ke n by 2 0 1 1
  25. 25. W ATS O N I n m e d i c i n e H u m a n s d i a g n o s i s s k i l l o v e r t a k e n 2 0 1 2
  26. 26. A I C O N T E X T A vital step toward cognition Feel Sight Taste Smell Sound Experiences Cameras Mobiles Sensors Media Nets IoT “Let us pray” “Lettuce spray” “Let us spray” Are we in church/mosque, kitchen or garden ? Ultimately, AI is defined by sensory systems
  27. 27. Intelligent search & Sort
  28. 28. Stored information growth 1986 I can’t draw a dot small enough!! . 1996 0.001ZB 2006 0.13ZB 2016 13ZB IoT will accelerate this trend to promote ever more on device storage ZetaByte = 1021 ExaB = 1018 PetaB = 1015 TeraB = 1012 Prognosis: IoT small data distributed storage may exceed the internet
  29. 29. s m a rt w o r k i n g Integrated apps and internet search
  30. 30. s e a r c h E n g i n es Brilliant and useless at the same time Spending 80% of your time searching instead of doing isn’t a smart way of working ! AI could easily fix this but these companies are not going to let it happen ! Unlikely to embrace AI/Smart/Intelligent search It reduces the number of clicks and $$$$
  31. 31. T r u t h E n g i n e s Easy to confirm facts - conjecture is harder Vital for: • Politics • Society • Science • Farming • Internet • Security • Industry • Education • Healthcare • Commerce • Government • ++++ “In most arenas truth is dynamic and changes with our ability to test & measure” “Accepted truths advance toward an absolute state with our ability to challenge them”
  32. 32. S o u r c e S e a r c h Original accounts v repeats Identify primary sources and qualified reports…
  33. 33. Across multiple sources - locations C o r r e l at i o n Weighted sources by reputation/history: BBC = 0.95 Bloomberg = 0.90 FoxNews = 0.70 +++ +++ Twitter = 0.01 Early R&D phase but of great interest to Google, IBM, CIA, FBI, et al
  34. 34. robots Like us Or even better in some extreme cases Able to go and be where humans can’t, won’t or shouldn’t go to work without fatigue or complaint… S p e c i a l i s e d b u t b e c o m i n g increasingly flexible, adaptable and capable…
  35. 35. robots unLike us Taking care of many of our needs Doing what we cannot do year on year with precision and quality… producing complex goods and consumables …including packaging, warehousing and logistics + exploration in zones of disaster and large scale accidents
  36. 36. Vertical Farming Food production on demand just in time Continual JIT crops on demand Far greater yields 90% less water Less or no soil No pesticides Unaffected by climate Consistent quality Less land use
  37. 37. sensory systems
  38. 38. new tech destroys jobs Whilst changing the nature of work and employment Lost in my lifetime: Typists Dockers Milkman Blacksmith Secretaries Drawing office Xerox operator Elevator operator Computer operator Telephone operator Comptometer operator Financial report writers ++++ Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call centres Report writers Personal bankers Personal assistants Answering services Investment bankers Warehouse People Personal Assistant Tech suppor t Stock Trader Receptionist Forecasters Train driver Researcher Journalist Drivers Pilots ++++ Lost in your lifetime:
  39. 39. tech Creates/Enhances jobs Whilst changing the nature of life, work & employment Jobs to come: 3/4D Designer Risk Profilers Cyborg Engineer Protein Designer Crime Predictor Digital Historian Information Caretaker Truth Engine Mediator Component Repurposer Genome-Protein Activators Material Programmer Recycling Designers Interface Designers Machine Mediators Wisdom Archivists Genome Designer Material Designer Wisdom Monitors Trouble Shooters Nano-Engineers Bio-Engineers Jobs to Be enhanced: Fabricator Geneticist Generalist Proteomist Multi-designer Problem solver Longevity advisor Big Data Analyst Cellular programmer Material programmer Complexity analysts Security Experts Entrepreneurs Technologists Consultants Architects Detectives Designers Engineers Modellers Scientists Medics
  40. 40. Education-change Students for tomorrow, not yesterday New methods/curriculum for a new world Student - mentor - human and machine
  41. 41. R e c a l l i n g f a c t s , f i g u r e s , processes, methods is not a measure of intelligence - machines can do that ! rate of Education change Mu st get ahead of industry and f orge long te r m link s Problem solving abilities & creativity now trump pure academic attainment A n y t i m e , t o p i c , l o c a t i o n , s t y l e , a n d f o r m a t
  42. 42. inverted Innovation Expertise and experience is on the move Tanks to Toys In The P a s t TodayGames to Guns Opening up a new range of opportunities
  43. 43. P e r s p e c t i v e 100 fold more change than us “ O u r l e g a c y s h o u l d b e a world of sustainable progress for all peoples to come” It all starts w ith e d u c a t i o n
  44. 44. The future belongs to the most adaptable and those who dare ! Thank You 1995