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RISK p3-12 CLIMATE CHANGE Some of the Data 150824

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The problem of RISK is substantial, and the risk associated with climate change may be bigger than anything we can imagine. The fact that climate change is happening is clear from the data ... some of which is shown in this slideset. While we can use technology to change man-built-systems, this cannot be done with natural systems which are both complex and different in scale from anything man can easily comprehend. Mitigating this risk is an urgent imperative.

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RISK p3-12 CLIMATE CHANGE Some of the Data 150824

  1. 1. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING RISK CLIMATE CHANGE SOME OF THE DATA File: RISK-p3-12-CLIMATE-CHANGE-data-150824.odp Peter Burgess (c) All rights reserved
  2. 2. EXPLANATION This slideset is A WORK-IN-PROGRESS. It will be upgraded periodically. It is part of a series of more than 50 slidesets. Navigation to all of these is available here: FEEDBACK is welcome. Please email to Peter Burgess … peterbnyc@gmail.com … with a catchy phrase in the subject line so that it gets attention, and please identify the specific slideset(s) involved. This explanation is version v150801. The most current text is available at: MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING http://www.truevaluemetrics.org/DBadmin/DBtxt001.php?vv1=txt00010199 http://www.truevaluemetrics.org/DBadmin/DBtxt001.php?vv1=N1-Slidesets-p3
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION The fact of people in leadership positions around the world who don't know science is both appalling and dangerous. Such people are in politics, the media, and corporate executive suites. There is misinformation and many people are persuaded by the misinformation. My hope is that showing some of the data in an easy way might help. The following material has been sourced from a very interesting blog published by the Climate Reality Project at this URL: http://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/10-indicators-that-show-climate-change MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  4. 4. There is a need to come up with a way to link the huge RISK associated with climate change back to the day to day decisions that are driving the modern day economy, from decisions made by individual people, to those made by corporate CEOs and those made by politicians and regulators. The idea that more growth and more profit are healthy measures of socio-enviro-economic performance must be complemented by thinking about the impact there is on people and planet including especially the RISK that continuing profligate use of fossil fuel based energy is going to have on everything. Metrics to measure this is an essential … hence TrueValueMetrics MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  5. 5. The long term fact of global warming is shown in the following 10 graphs. They are not from single sources, but reflect data from a number of different sources over a long time. These graphs show results. They do not, in themselves explain causality. They are an important part of the fact base that enables system modeling that can help explain the past and help make meaningful predictions about the future. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  6. 6. Once again … the following material has been sourced from a blog published by the Climate Reality Project at this URL: http://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/10-indicators-that-show-climate-change MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  7. 7. The following are 10 major changes scientists have seen in our climate system. Each indicator described below has been extensively studied over the past several decades, and was captured from many different data sets and technologies. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  8. 8. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPLand surface air temperature 1850 to 2008
  9. 9. It’s clear that weather stations on land show average air temperatures are rising, and as a result, the frequency and severity of droughts and heat waves are increasing. Intense droughts can lead to destructive wildfires, failed crops, and low water supplies, many of which are deeply affecting southern areas of the United States and other parts of the world. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  10. 10. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPAir temperatures over oceans … 1850 to 2008
  11. 11. Roughly 70 percent of the world is covered by oceans, so you can understand how hotter air over them could make a vast difference in the climate system. Oceans evaporate more water as the air right near the surface gets warmer. The result? More floods, more hurricanes, and more extreme precipitation events. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  12. 12. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPSeptember arctic sea ice extent … 1940 to 2008
  13. 13. Satellite images from space show that the area covered by sea ice in the Artic is shrinking, and it’s continued a downward trend for the past 30 years. The Arctic ice cap grows each winter when there’s less sunlight, and shrinks each summer when days are longer, reaching its lowest point of the year in September. Some research suggests that the Arctic could lose almost all of its summer ice cover by 2100, but others believe that it could melt completely much sooner than that – in just a few decades. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  14. 14. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPGlacier mass balance … 1940 to 2008
  15. 15. The disappearance of glaciers is one of the clearest signs of climate change. People who rely on melting glacier water are facing shortages, and in many regions, the situation is only getting worse. In a world unaffected by climate change, glacier mass stays balanced, meaning the ice that evaporates in the summer is fully replaced by snowfall in the winter. However, when more ice melts than is replaced, the glacier loses mass. And the people who depend on melting ice for water to support their farming and living needs are deeply affected. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  16. 16. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPSea Level rise … 1850 to 2000
  17. 17. Sea levels have been rising for the past century. And the pace is only increasing in recent years as glaciers melt faster and water temperatures increase, causing oceans to expand. You can imagine how this would affect the almost 40 percent of the US population that lives in a highly populated coastal area. Let’s not forget that eight of the 10 largest cities in the world are near a coast. Consider how many millions of people are at risk as sea levels rise, storms intensify, and more extreme flooding occurs. Additionally, marine life is threatened as salt water intrudes into fresh water aquifers, many of which support human communities and natural ecosystems. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  18. 18. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPHumidity … 1940 to 2008
  19. 19. More humidity means more water vapor is in the air, making it feel stickier in hot weather. Water vapor itself is an important part of the water cycle, and it contributes to the earth’s natural greenhouse effect. Air conditioners have to work harder to make us feel cool as the amount of water vapor in the air increases. Which means more energy use, which can in turn contribute to more climate change. Lose-lose. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  20. 20. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPOcean heat content … 1940 to 2008
  21. 21. The ocean stores and releases heat over long periods of time. This is a natural and important part of stabilizing the climate system. Natural climate patterns (think, El Niño) occur regularly because of warmer ocean waters and influence areas like regional climates and marine life. But it’s when short-term, natural climate patterns like El Niño occur at the same time as oceans are becoming warmer and warmer that we know that larger changes are happening. The increased heat content leads to higher sea levels, melting glaciers, and stress to marine ecosystems. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  22. 22. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPSea surface temperature … 1850 to 2008
  23. 23. Measuring instruments show that water temperatures at the ocean’s surface are going up. To some extent, this is a normal pattern: the ocean surface warms as it absorbs sunlight. The ocean then releases some of its heat into the atmosphere, creating wind and rain clouds. However, as the ocean’s surface temperature continues to increase over time, more and more heat is released into the atmosphere. This additional heat can lead to stronger and more frequent storms like tropical cyclones and hurricanes. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  24. 24. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPSnow cover … 1850 to 2008
  25. 25. Satellites show areas covered by snow in the Northern Hemisphere are becoming smaller. Snow is important as it helps control how much of the sun’s energy Earth absorbs. Light-colored snow and ice reflect this energy back into space, helping keep the planet cool. However, as the snow and ice melts, it’s replaced by dark land and ocean, both of which absorb energy. The amount of snow and ice loss in the last 30 years is higher than many scientists predicted, which means the Earth is absorbing more solar energy than had been projected. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  26. 26. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING Sun BOP Sun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun SunSun Financial Capital Human Capital Man Built Capital Natural Capital Sun EOPLower atmosphere temperature … 1940 to 2008
  27. 27. The lowest layer of the atmosphere, called the troposphere, is the layer we’re most familiar with – it’s where we live and where our weather occurs. Satellite measurements show that this lowest layer of the atmosphere is warming as greenhouse gases build up and trap heat that radiates from the Earth’s surface. Scientists tell us that human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, caused this increase in atmospheric temperatures. In fact, carbon dioxide levels have increased about 40 percent since the Industrial Revolution began in 1750. And unless we put a stop to this trend as soon as possible, these levels – and temperatures – likely will increase even more. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  28. 28. THE SIGNS ARE CLEAR. IT’S TIME TO TAKE ACTION. It’s difficult to argue against what’s happening once you’ve seen these ten climate change indicators. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  29. 29. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The graphs and text in the previous slides are from a post by the Climate Reality Project at this URL: http://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/10-indicators-that-show-climate-change MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  30. 30. SO … EXACTLY WHAT ACTION CAN BE TAKEN ... A start is to understand that per capita emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, in the United States and Canada are about 20 tonnes per capita per year compared to less than 8 tonnes per capita per year in Europe. The US has a very profitable economy, but in environmental terms, the US has a very inefficient economy. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  31. 31. Worse … the US is moving very slowly compared to other countries to make the critical changes needed for a sustainable socio-enviro-economic system. The main metrics driving decision making in the US are corporate profit, stock market valuations and GDP growth … metrics that on their own guarantee environmentally inefficient outcomes. In Europe, Germany, Denmark and others are moving faster … not to mention China that has embraced renewables on a scale unimaginable in the US! MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  32. 32. HOW TO FIX THE INEFFICIENT US ECONOMY ... (1) Buildings are a big part of the problem. Massive retrofit of existing inefficient buildings is essential. There is going to be an immediate money cost of doing this, but this is going to be small compared to the risk reduction. Unfortunately with current money metrics (conventional FASB accounting) there is very weak accounting for risk and business school trained financial analysts discount the future in a manner that is dangerously irresponsible. The environmental cost of energy waste in buildings is priced at ZERO when it should be substantial. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  33. 33. HOW TO FIX THE INEFFICIENT US ECONOMY ... (2) Transportation is another part of the problem. There are ways to reduce the energy used for transportation but it is made difficult by almost all the established stakeholders. The money price of energy used in transportation is relatively low, and the pricing of the 'truecost' of environmental risk is ZERO when it should be substantial. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  34. 34. HOW TO FIX THE INEFFICIENT US ECONOMY ... (3) Personal consumption is yet another part of the problem. Some level of consumption is essential to satisfy needs, but much consumption is merely to satisfy frivolous wants. People need to be able to have more happiness and a better quality of life doing things that involve less consumption of energy intensive product. Again, this change is difficult when the price of energy excludes the 'truecost' of environmental risk. MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING
  35. 35. REMINDER This slideset is A WORK-IN-PROGRESS. It will be upgraded periodically. It is part of a series of more than 50 slidesets. Navigation to all of these is available here: FEEDBACK is welcome. Please email to Peter Burgess … peterbnyc@gmail.com … with a catchy phrase in the subject line so that it gets attention, and please identify the specific slideset(s) involved. This explanation is version v150801. The most current text is available at: MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING http://www.truevaluemetrics.org/DBadmin/DBtxt001.php?vv1=txt00010199 http://www.truevaluemetrics.org/DBadmin/DBtxt001.php?vv1=N1-Slidesets-p3
  36. 36. THANK YOU Some links and contact information: Peter Burgess … peterbnyc@gmail.com Peter Burgess LinkedIn profile https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterburgess1 Link to TrueValueMetrics.org website http://www.truevaluemetrics.org/ Link to navigation to other slides in this series: MULTI DIMENSION IMPACT ACCOUNTING http://www.truevaluemetrics.org/DBadmin/DBtxt001.php?vv1=N1-Slidesets-p3

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