Heads or Tails? - IPL 5 forecast - a study by Percept Media Lab

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So how big will IPL 5 be? Will it fall further than the previous IPL season? How excited are the people for this year’s IPL season? How will the viewership shape up and how much impact will it carry on other popular genres on television today?
Forecasting TV viewership is not easy. But we have had TAM for years in India and India always had a solid analytics and statistics base! We have made an attempt to answer all these questions using a scientific approach of analytics, advanced Statistics and audience research.

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Heads or Tails? - IPL 5 forecast - a study by Percept Media Lab

  1. 1. IPLLab Newsletter - 2012 5 Forecastpercept media lab Issue : 1 April 2012Heads or Tails? At the 2011 World Cup Finals, after Dhoni spun the coin, he thought he had won the toss. But Crowe did not hear a call from Kumar Sangakkara who, as the visiting skipper was supposed to nominate heads or tails. After a brief discussion between the captains Crowe ordered a re-toss - an almost unheard of event in any cricket match…..How big is the Buzz for IPL 5?So how big will IPL 5 be? Will it fall further than the previous IPL season? How excited are the people forthis year’s IPL season? How will the viewership shape up and how much impact will it carry on otherpopular genres on television today?Forecasting TV viewership is not easy. But we have had TAM for years in India and India always had asolid analytics and statistics base! We have made an attempt to answer all these questions using a scien-ti�ic approach of analytics, advanced Statistics and audience research.Methodology:a. Analytics helped us to zero in on the broad directions of Statistical Analysis as well as the Unit forforecasting and the appropriate Statistical Tools to be exploredb. Analytics indicated that it is important to look at the three TGs viz All Adults 4+ C&S, Males, 15+ ABand Females, 15+ ABC. It was also clear that forecasting GRPs delivered over a Week would be morerobust than say forecasting Match TVRsc. IPL Forecasting had been performed using 5 different forecasting techniques. The two best fore-casting techniques were shortlisted using Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Absolute ScaledError. The forecasting had been done in accordance with number of matches in each week and stageat which they are being played.d. The estimated market wise GRPs could be seen as directive/indicative rather than absolutenumber for various TGs and Genre.e. The online research on ‘Mood of the People for IPL 2012 as compared to IPL 2011’ was conductedby international research agency specializing in online panel research. The study was done two weeksprior, appropriate factoring would need to be done to look at adjusting the Statistical Forecast Page 1
  2. 2. Is there some pattern over seasons ? The IPL has beyond doubt created the “cricketainment” Figure 1 space which cannot be detached from its audience. It dominates TV viewing like no other programe or event on Channel share for CS Male AB 15+ at all India level television, particularly during its telecast period. This can30 be concluded from the fact that the channel’s share amongst its core target audience of male viewers from25 IPL Socio Economic Class AB is the highest at 20%+ across all20 IPL seasons! The share among the two other TGs 4+ C&S Top 3 GEC15 Cummulative and Women ABC 15+, is also pretty high at 15% and 10 %10 Top 3 Movies respectively. In a typical non cricket period just before Cummulative 5 IPL, even Top 3 GEC channels together have a share of under 20%. On the other hand movie genre had remained 0 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 relatively unaffected.Avg. channel share of first, middle and last week during IPL season time band 16:00 - 23:59 However, IPL 4, held in 2011, saw a visible drop in its channel share as compared to the previous seasons of IPL. Figure 2 The total viewership generated by IPL 4 in terms of GRPs generated were 10% lower. This has been popularly be Channel share for CS Female ABC 15+ at all India level attributed to the euphoria of the Cricket World Cup just before of IPL season, leading to a sort of fatigue for cricket30 viewers. But this didn’t translate into any gain for any25 IPL other channels. We believe that an increase in the number20 of matches - from about 60 matches in the earlier IPLs to Top 3 GEC15 Cummulative 73 in IPL 4 accentuated the dip in the league matches. Top 3 Movies10 Over the years channel share of IPL among women has Cummulative 5 dropped and was the lowest for IPL 4. Consequently share of 0 Top 3 GEC’s has steadily increased over IPL seasons. IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4Avg. channel share of first, middle and last week during IPL season time band 16:00 - 23:59 ‘U’ Shaped Viewership of IPL Interestingly, IPL viewership by week shows mild ‘U’ Figure 3 shape trend lines. It starts with a bang, tapers down and peaks towards climax. This substantiates that the �irst Channel share for CS Female ABC 15+ at all India level week with its grand opening ceremony and buzz around IPL surely works for TV viewership. But towards mid-30 season, it loses its hold. Could Brand IPL add some pizzzaz25 to its entertainment quotient during middle stage of the20 Max tournament? This is what IPL should surely try. GEC15 Movies10 5 0 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4Avg. channel share of first, middle and last week during IPL season time band 16:00 - 23:59 Page 2
  3. 3. What will IPL 5 Gross in the Opening week ?Statistical ForecastIt is imperative to know how IPL in 2012 will shape up in its TV viewership in terms of Gross Ratings Points(GRPs). We have used various scienti�ic forecasting techniques and the best technique that gaveminimum error was selected to estimate IPL 5 GRPs by week. The IPL 5 GRPs forecast was performed withrespect to the number of matches to be held in each week of the IPL and also by studying the pattern of GRPs,week by week of the previous IPL seasons. Total GRPs was chosen over TVR’s as it is a more robust measure.Our prediction model suggests that total viewership of IPL will start at 4% to 8% higher viewership than lastseason for �irst 2 weeks and will catchup and build in to a high in the last 2 weeks. The total gross viewershipof IPL 5 will reach IPL 3 level of about 2600 GRPs for the core male TG.The model applied implies that IPL 2012 viewership in GRPs will at least improve by 4% in the total TV audi-ence and 7 to 8% in the other two TGs we studied (M AB 15+ and F ABC 15+) compared to IPL 2011’s viewer-ship in �irst week of IPL 2012, as depicted in table 1 below.The story does not end there for the prediction of GRPs. This forecasting model estimates increase in femaleviewership (GRPs) at least by 7% and above compared to IPL 2011 as depicted in table 1. Interestingly, thetotal viewership of IPL 5 measured by GRPs generated will take it to the same level as IPL 3. This gives strongsense of the point established earlier that IPL dominance on television space is here to stay. GRPs for week 1 All India : Gross Viewership (GRPs) for 1st week - Table 1 Week 1 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 Forecast for IPL 5 % Change over IPL 4 All CS 4+ Yrs 334 298 332 291 304 4% Male AB 15+ 562 499 566 456 493 8% Female ABC 15+ 338 276 347 278 297 7% CUM GRP’s across weeks Gross Viewership (GRPs) of IPL and expected increment in IPL 5 for all India - Table 2 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 Forecast for IPL 5 % Change over IPL 4 All CS 4+ Yrs 1887 1581 1836 1650 1891 15% Male AB 15+ 2708 2258 2658 2257 2652 18% Female ABC 15+ 1708 1372 1656 1421 1662 17% GRP’s by week: IPL 4 Vs IPL 5 All India : Gross Viewership (GRPs) by weeks - Table 3 Male AB 15+ Yrs Weeks IPL 4 IPL 5 % Change over IPL 4 1 456 493 8% 2 414 456 10% 3 387 413 7% 4 401 426 6% 5 293 339 15% 6 238 306 28% 7 248 361 45% 8 108 195 80% Page 3
  4. 4. What is the Mood of the People ?While cricketainment space by IPL is predicted statistically to be better than last year in terms of its TVGRPs, we need to see how interested people are for IPL 2012 as compared to IPL 2011. The answer to thisquestion was found by conducting an online research on 845 sample, by an international research agencyspecializing in online research - NEPAThe study was conducted two weeks prior to IPL 5 and hence undermines the current mood and interest forIPL. Even that time the interest for watching matches was at a similar level as the last year. This suggests thatIPL 5 viewership may be higher than IPL 4. Thus, based on this research we did not feel the need to upweightor downweight the statistical forecast. The importance of IPL in audiences mind can be gauged from the factthat 60% of respondents said they would miss it a lot. Interest among friends and peers IPL 2012 v/s IPL 2011 60% 59% IPL 2011 IPL 2012 Answered 6-7 on a scale from 1-7 where 1=Low interest and 7=A lot of interest A little less interest in the league matches this year but other matches already at same level as last year 80% 74% 75% 70% 60% 57% 57% 53% 50% 48% 40% IPL 2011 IPL 2012 30% 20% 10% 0% League Matches Qualifiers Finals 60% of the respondents would miss IPL a lot if it was cancelled 100% 60% of the respondents would miss IPL if it was 90% Share of cancelled, 26% wouldn’t population 80% 70% 1 4 7 60% Wont miss it at all Will miss it a lot 60% 50% Index: 34 32% 40% Index = those who like 30% 26% minus those who dislike 20% 13% 11% 10% 7% 15% 8% 0% Will miss it a lot Wont miss it at all What if IPL was cancelled Page 4
  5. 5. Impact on Hindi GEC and MoviesBy contrast, popular genre on television such as GEC and Movies evidently see a drop in their GRPs from preIPL average GRPs to �irst week GRPs during IPL. But by all means it is reasonable to believe that GEC’s havestarted applying their strategies smartly as it is estimated to have some control on the plunge of GRPs duringthe �irst week of IPL 2012 as compared to IPL 2011. It potentially means that there is possibly some sort ofa �ight for the remote in single television households, over which TV channel to watch.Movie genre too will witness a drop in GRPs from pre IPL average (4 weeks) GRPs to GRPs generated duringthe �irst week of the IPL season. However, this drop in the movie genre will be marginally more for maleaudiences than for female audiences. Also, all individuals with age of 4 and above will a see similar patternin drop for Hindi movie genre, this can be important to note for media planners and buyers. % GRPs drop for GEC during first week of IPL over pre IPL period* 30% Time Band : 16:00 - 23:59; Market: HSM 1 Million + 25% 25% 23% 21% 19% 19% 19% 20% 2011 15% 2012 10% 5% 0% All Adults 4+ Female ABC 15+ Male AB 15+ *Pre IPL Non Cricket 4 weeks average had been taken for calculation % GRPs drop for Movies during firstin GRPs during first week period* Movies will witness similar drop week of IPL over pre IPL of IPL 2012 as compared to IPL 2011 over avg. GRPs of pre IPL weeks* GRPs 30% Time Band : 16:00 - 23:59; Market: HSM 1 Million + 25% 22% 21% 20% 17% 16% 15% 2011 15% 13% 2012 10% 5% 0% All Adults 4+ Female ABC 15+ Male AB 15+ *Pre IPL Non Cricket 4 weeks average had been taken for calculation Page 5
  6. 6. Impact on South GEC+MoviesIt is pertinent here to observe that the Tamil GEC and Movie combine will have almost a similar kind ofdrop in IPL 2012 as compared to IPL 2011. The Telugu GEC and Movies combine will have higher drop intheir GRPs during �irst week of IPL 2012 in comparison with IPL 2011. Interestingly, females with age of15 and above in socio economic class ABC will show a lesser impact in comparison to females with age of4 and above for Telugu GEC and Movies combine.For all the good shown by CSK, IPL does not have a strong dominance in TN(or for that matter in AP) Natu-rally Impact of IPL on Tamil and Telugu Channels is not high. % GRPs drop for Tamil GEC+Movies during first week of IPL over pre IPL period* 14% 12% 12% 11% 10% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 2011 6% 4% 2012 2% 0% 4+ All Adults 15+ Yrs Male AB 15+ Yrs Female ABC *Non Cricket pre IPL 4 weeks average GRPs were considered for calculation and estmation % GRPs drop for Telugu GEC+Movies during first week of IPL over pre IPL period* 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 8% 2011 6% 4% 2012 4% 2% 1% 0% 4+ All Adults 15+ Yrs Male ABC 15+ Yrs Female ABC *Non Cricket pre IPL 4 weeks average GRPs were considered for calculation and estmation Page 6
  7. 7. Impact on Advertising Minutes on Hindi GEC and Hindi Movies Surprisingly, the impact that IPL carries on GEC and movie genre in the con- text of advertising minutes may not be catching the attention of bright ana- lytic minds in media today. It is evident that a drop in advertising minutes, % Drop in Advt. Minutes in each week of IPL over Pre-IPL during �inals and quali�iers, in GEC and movies are visible. However, the weeks average (Pre-IPL non cricketing 4 weeks) same is not visible during �irst couple of weeks of the IPL season. This could mean that media planners are pre occupied with the �inal but no one is IPL 2011 paying attention to the �irst two weeks where they still can get a reasonable Weeks GEC Movies exposure for their brands. This requires planners to take into account the 1 0% -4% mild ‘U’ shape viewership of the IPL season. 2 1% -4% 3 0% -14% 4 -3% -22% 5 0% -15% 6 1% -14% 7 -31% -40% 8 -72% -74%Detailed Forecast CS All Adults 4+ (All India) CS All Adults 4+ (HSM 1 Million+) Foreca Match Foreca Match st for TVR st for TVR Week IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 1 334 298 332 291 304 4.3 396 337 399 337 355 5.0 2 303 329 337 249 280 4.3 341 373 387 296 327 5.1 3 288 279 270 258 265 3.7 316 313 322 292 302 4.3 4 281 285 295 260 271 3.8 319 328 344 301 314 4.4 5 244 279 259 199 223 3.5 287 307 297 226 254 3.9 6 268 111 247 155 197 2.8 303 120 285 174 223 3.1 7 168 95 158 223 3.8 193 110 183 257 4.4 8 80 128 6.6 85 144 7.4 Average across all matches 4.1 Average across all matches 4.7 Males AB 15+ (All India) Female ABC 15+ (All India) Foreca Match Foreca Match st for TVR st for TVR Week IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 1 467 437 496 397 428 6.0 292 253 295 250 264 3.7 2 426 479 490 356 402 6.2 262 286 302 207 240 3.7 3 413 399 391 347 368 5.2 258 243 248 223 233 3.3 4 403 403 423 357 380 5.3 257 250 265 216 233 3.3 5 359 379 363 266 306 4.7 221 241 233 171 196 3.0 6 376 163 354 210 274 3.9 241 99 225 137 176 2.5 7 239 139 216 315 5.4 160 89 140 200 3.4 8 108 181 9.3 77 121 6.2 Average across all matches 5.8 Average across all matches 3.6 Males AB 15+ Female ABC 15+ Foreca Match Foreca Match st for TVR st for TVR Week IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 1 562 499 566 456 493 6.9 338 276 347 278 297 4.2 2 480 533 532 414 456 7.1 283 314 335 237 269 4.2 3 468 447 445 387 413 5.8 280 268 288 248 261 3.7 4 465 444 473 401 426 6.0 288 270 295 231 254 3.6 5 427 404 398 293 339 5.2 260 246 254 187 214 3.3 6 425 175 389 238 306 4.3 268 99 247 153 194 2.7 7 265 151 248 361 6.2 175 95 161 226 3.9 8 108 195 10.1 78 129 6.7 Average across all matches 6.4 Average across all matches 4.0 4+ All Adults TN 4+ All Adults AP Foreca Match Foreca Match st for TVR st for TVR Week IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 IPL 1 IPL 2 IPL 3 IPL 4 IPL 5 IPL 5 1 226 226 218 168 189 2.7 285 239 265 207 230 3.2 2 233 242 254 159 193 3.0 268 261 269 181 215 3.3 3 216 262 181 201 205 2.9 260 209 222 197 210 2.9 4 227 223 226 195 207 2.9 233 232 254 197 215 3.0 5 197 257 198 162 182 2.8 185 232 206 145 170 2.6 6 207 84 224 99 149 2.1 225 85 228 131 170 2.4 7 169 93 128 181 3.1 127 66 112 176 3.0 8 87 128 6.6 56 95 4.9 Average across all matches 3.3 Average across all matches 3.2Data source: We have obviously miked the rich tam data without which this analysis wouldnt have been possible. Page 7
  8. 8. In the Final AnalysisIPL 5, 2012 is expected to continue its dominance in the 15+ Male, SEC AB segment and ishere to stay.More number of matches may not translate into more time spent on viewing matches.The opening week, in the 15+ Male SEC AB segment IPL 5, 2012 is expected to register amoderate 8% increase in GRPs as compared to IPL 4, 2011.Hardcore statistical analysis and research show that audience segment 15+ Female SECABC viewership (GRPs) of IPL 5, 2012 is projected to grow by 17%, as compared to IPL 4,2011.However, IPL share of viewing among women is steadily declining and top 3 GEC channelstogether have overtaken IPL in the last season.The huge proportion of single TV houses could become a factor in the equation for men v/swomen viewership and is expected to be evenly poised for IPL 5, 2012.Finally, it would be interesting to see who wins the �ight for the remote in households inIndiaAbout percept media labPercept Media Lab will delve into analytics, forecasts and future trends and concepts in the marcom space.The next big initiative of Percept Media Lab is an M3 Study which combines Message, 3600 media touch-points to deliver Market Share. At the heart of the study is a massive 20000 sample size consumer research,which will explore the path of purchase for10 product categories. The study will measure importance of keydrivers for each of the categories and perception of top brands on each of those. The High point of this studywill be the unique M3 model in collaboration with Pointlogic, a World Leader in marcom planning andanalytics that combines cutting-edge research, advanced mathematical modeling, and �lexible softwaretools to deliver optimum message and media touch point combination for maximizing market share. Thescale of this project is the �irst of its kind in the world. Page 8

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