Regional Models & Data to Analyze Disaster Mitigation & Resilience

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Roundtable - A National Framework for Natural Hazard Risk Reduction and Management: Developing a Research Agenda

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Regional Models & Data to Analyze Disaster Mitigation & Resilience

  1. 1. Regional Models & Data to Analyze Disaster Mitigation & Resilience <ul><li>Adam Rose </li></ul><ul><li>Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events </li></ul><ul><li>University of Southern California </li></ul>
  2. 2. Regional Scope of U.S. Disasters <ul><li>Disasters rarely extend to national boundary </li></ul><ul><li>- sheer size of the U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>- limits of natural and man-made forces </li></ul><ul><li>Even localized impacts ripple to trading area </li></ul><ul><li>- interdependence of economic sectors </li></ul><ul><li>- connecting role of infrastructure </li></ul>
  3. 3. Re-Examine Interdependence <ul><li>Old View—Brittle </li></ul><ul><li>- multiplier or domino perspective </li></ul><ul><li>- network vulnerability </li></ul><ul><li>New View—Flexible, or Resilient </li></ul><ul><li>- static resilience (adjusts & adapts) </li></ul><ul><li>- dynamic resilience (bounces back) </li></ul>
  4. 4. Focus of Presentation <ul><li>Models for analyzing interdependence: </li></ul><ul><li>- input-output </li></ul><ul><li>- computable general equilibrium </li></ul><ul><li>Incorporation of Resilience </li></ul><ul><li>Data bases for county level analyses: </li></ul><ul><li>- IMPLAN </li></ul><ul><li>- HAZUS </li></ul>
  5. 5. Major Economic Models <ul><li>Input-Output </li></ul><ul><li>- system of accounts; most widely used tool </li></ul><ul><li>- linear model of all purchases & sales between sectors of an economy, based on the technological relationships of production </li></ul><ul><li>Computable General Equilibrium </li></ul><ul><li>- extends I-O to markets & prices; state-of-the-art </li></ul><ul><li>- non-linear model of individual behavioral    response to price signals, subject to limitations    of labor, capital & natural resources </li></ul>
  6. 6. Input-Output Table
  7. 8. Expanded Circular Flow
  8. 9. Economic Resilience <ul><li>General Definition : </li></ul><ul><li>static : ability of a system to maintain function when shocked </li></ul><ul><li>dynamic : speed of a system to recover from shock </li></ul><ul><li>Types of Resilience : </li></ul><ul><li>inherent : normal ability during crises to maintain function </li></ul><ul><li>(input/import substitution, market reallocation) </li></ul><ul><li>adaptive : ingenuity during crises </li></ul><ul><li>(increased substitution possibilities, market strengthening) </li></ul>
  9. 10. Examples of Resilience <ul><li>Individual Business (and Household) </li></ul><ul><li>- conservation of critical inputs </li></ul><ul><li>- use of inventories </li></ul><ul><li>- business relocation </li></ul><ul><li>Market </li></ul><ul><li>- efficient allocation of resources via price signals </li></ul><ul><li>- non-interruptible service premia </li></ul><ul><li>Regional Economy </li></ul><ul><li>- importing scarce commodities </li></ul><ul><li>- information clearinghouses </li></ul>
  10. 12. Infrastructure-Economy Interaction through GIS
  11. 13. TABLE 2. RESILIENCE TO UTILITY SERVICE DISRUPTIONS
  12. 14. <ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Resilience Factor Water Electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Conservation 1.0 6.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptive Substitution 1.6 3.9 </li></ul><ul><li>Inventories/Storage 3.0 — </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative Sources — 28.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Importance 58.7 28.7 </li></ul><ul><li>Production Rescheduling 75.5 79.4 </li></ul><ul><li> Total 91.0 89.6  </li></ul>Individual Resilience Options
  13. 15. IMPLAN <ul><li>Im pact Analysis for Plan ning </li></ul><ul><li>Developed by several federal gov’t agencies </li></ul><ul><li>Most popular source of regional I-O tables </li></ul><ul><li>Consists of 3 components </li></ul><ul><li>- county data on economic activity </li></ul><ul><li>- algorithms for generating county I-O tables </li></ul><ul><li>- computations to perform impact analyses </li></ul>
  14. 16. HAZUS <ul><li>Haz ards U nited S tates— M ulti- H azard </li></ul><ul><li>Loss estimation tool developed by FEMA </li></ul><ul><li>Immense data base: </li></ul><ul><li>- built environment </li></ul><ul><li>- physical damage functions </li></ul><ul><li>- translation to direct economic loss </li></ul><ul><li>- I-O analysis to estimate indirect econ loss </li></ul>
  15. 17. Conclusions <ul><li>We can model & measure resilience at the business, hh, market & regional levels </li></ul><ul><li>Resilience is a low cost way to reduce disaster losses (often lower than mitigation) </li></ul><ul><li>Resilience is an important 2 nd line of defense </li></ul><ul><li>Resilience provides a role for all citizens </li></ul>

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