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Infrastructure, Urban Growth, & Global Competitiveness


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Robert Cervero's presentation for the Penn IUR conference

"The Shape of the New American City"

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Infrastructure, Urban Growth, & Global Competitiveness

  1. 1. Infrastructure, Urban Growth, & Global Competitiveness Robert Cervero, UC Berkeley <ul><li>Economic Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Early Work : Aschauer (1989) – >35% RoI </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Methodological dilemmas : does infrastructure induce growth or do we build infrastructure where growth is occurring? Lead or Lag? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reassessments : similar to private-sector rates of return (6%-8%) </li></ul></ul></ul>UITP Global Cities Database (N=52)
  2. 2. <ul><ul><ul><li>Factor input : to economic production; companies avoid congested areas with deadweight losses/perceived poor quality of life. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Traffic congestion : bottleneck to economic growth, lowering GDP by 2.5% to 8% < delays, uncertainties, eroding quality of life, energy waste> </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Crowd-in or crowd-out private investment? In growing areas with hot real estate markets, it attracts private capital. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Insufficient : Incapable, by itself, of turning around lagging areas. </li></ul></ul></ul>Infrastructure & Urbanization Growth Impacts
  3. 3. Infrastructure & Land Use Location Impacts <ul><li>Literature : more redistributive than growth-inducing. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CA study (Boarnet): offsetting effects </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sprawl-Inducing? Transport investments generally a force toward decentralization – adds a layer of accessibility </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New commuter rail lines & growth: exurban counties (e.g., Loudon VA; Placer CA) are growing faster than urban/suburban ones. </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Paradox? <ul><li>Urban transport investments enlarge labor markets and trade-sheds -- e.g., better access to specialized skills </li></ul><ul><li>Enlargement = sprawl? </li></ul><ul><li>Key : how densities are organized …. Urban management & role for planning </li></ul>Los Angeles: Dysfunctional Densities? Suburban Stockholm’s Rail New Towns
  5. 5. Density & Design -.606 Density’s VMT-Reducing Impacts Moderated by Road Design ~ 1/3 370 U.S. Urbanized Areas, 2003 The Los Angeles Effect
  6. 6. Recapturing Benefits Rail Transit & Land Value Premiums Pleasant Hill California BART TOD Portland Oregon’s Pearl Distric t
  7. 7. TOD as Place-making BART’s Oakland Civic Center Station <ul><li>Place-making : comfortable, memorable places; hubs; aesthetics; amenities; legibility; natural surveillance </li></ul><ul><li>Soften perceptions of Density </li></ul><ul><li>Station as “Gateway” </li></ul>Mission Station BART Stockholm’s Tunnelbana Silver Spring Metrorail
  8. 8. “ R+P” (Rail + Property): Value Capture Projects in Hong Kong MTRC’s property developments along rail line
  9. 9. Hong Kong’s Model: “R+P” (Rail + Property) Railway (Fares) Property Development Property Investment & Management *2001-2005 Average Non-fare Revenue Sources Office Mall Station PTI Hotel & SA POS Parking Office
  10. 10. Trends in MTRC’s Profits and Losses from Property Development and Recurring Businesses, 1980-2005
  11. 11. Integrated Entrances Footbridge Network Shopping Mall above Station Long Footbridge
  12. 12. Hang Hau Station: Price Premium R=400m N R+P Commercial Commercial Residential Public etc Others Green Space R+P Residential Station R=200m 35% Price Premium for R+P in TOD format
  13. 13. Deconstructing Freeway Infrastructure Urban Regeneration with Less Mobility Portland’s Harbor Freeway Before Before After After San Francisco’s Embarcadero Freeway Milwaukee San Francisco’s Central freeway to Octavia Boulevard 1964 2006 Boston’s Big Dig
  14. 14. Redesign of Seoul Plaza “ Calmed” Traffic: Pedestrian Oval Seoul, Korea: Urban Reclamation Cheong Gye Cheon Freeway Removal/ Stream Restoration Before: 2003 After: 2005
  15. 15. Exclusive median bus lanes: 7 lines/ 84 km Curbside bus lanes: 293.6 km Targeted Vertical Retail-Office-Condo development along BRT corridors Multi-modal Transport: Offsetting Road Capacity Losses with Bus Priority Lanes & TOD Before: 2004 After: 2005
  16. 16. <ul><li>Greening of Central Seoul </li></ul>Temperature down by Average lowering 2%~5% Thermal Intensity in CBD
  17. 17. Marginal Effects of CGC on Non Residential Land Price
  18. 18. Marginal Effects of CGC on Residential Land Price
  19. 19. Close <ul><li>Infrastructure is still vital to economic expansion…not automatic; community design is essential to managing growth-inducing impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Global City Challenge: Strike the “Right” Balance of Infrastructure as a service and urban amenities/livability </li></ul><ul><li>Value added in bundling the two well – can co-finance infrastructure investments & seed expansion </li></ul>