Competence Foresight 2030: Russian experience


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Details of our 2012-13 project bridging technology foresight and skills anticipation methodology to understand future competence needs of Russian economy

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Competence Foresight 2030: Russian experience

  1. 1. Future competence demand anticipation in growing industries: Competence Foresight 2030 Dr. Pavel Luksha SKOLKOVO Education Development Center
  2. 2. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 2 Competence Foresight 2030 UAC Transport Universities Tools for focused competence demand anticipation & TVET policy revision in a specific growing industries (aircraft production and transportation & logistics industry) Tools for competence demand anticipation through technological foresight lenses for new & growing industries ILO project with SKOLKOVO Developing & piloting tools for competence demand technological foresight
  3. 3. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 3 1. Mismatch in labor market: • in formal sector, only 43% find jobs in accordance with their qualification • in informal sector, only 24% find jobs according to their qualification 2. Closing the productivity gap • current labor productivity is 32% of the US labor productivity • key government target: to increase no. of high-productivity jobs (30,000 USD/year) from 12 Mil in 2012 to 33 Mil in 2020 • additional target: productivity growth going faster than wage growth (currently, we are the only large emerging economy which has disadvantage to OECD countries in productivity adjusted for wage – and the gap is expected to grow)
  4. 4. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 4 Competence Foresight 2030 Strategic Initiatives Agency for the President of Russian Federation Ministry of Science & Education of Russian Federation Context: Development of the roadmap for the National System of Qualifications & Competencies Context: Third National Foresight of Science & Technology
  5. 5. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 5 Competence Foresight 2030: defining need for changes in curriculum & formats of TVET & HE for growing tech-driven sectors Changes in technologies, business processes & managerial pratices due to technological progress and social innovations Growing pressure of global competition for markets and talents Increasing gap between Russian TVET & HE system and best international practices Efforts of the government to kick- start the knowledge- intense economic sectors
  6. 6. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 6 New task emerges New task is recognized & demand for new skill is formed New training programs developed Training is conducted for new skills Typical technology lifecycle in ‘old’ industries with low rate of technological change … … ‘Area of attention’ for skills foresght Typical technology lifecycle in ‘new’ industries with high rate of technological change
  7. 7. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 7 Preliminary sector analysis, hypotheses regarding drivers of change Formation of expert groups (employers, research sector, universities, professional associations,regulators, advisors) Revision of results and preparation of reports Report verification with additional expert pool FORESIGHT SESSION Final reports Literature review Expert interviews Rapid Foresight + Expert panels & Deep dives Expert panels + Simulations Polling
  8. 8. 8 Key trends that drive change in the sector New ‘hard’ technologies New ‘soft’ technologies (work organization, e.g. managerial innovations, new org. formats etc.) New market opportunities (new products & services) New market threats (inc. competitive technologies) Change of working task structure Tasks that can be resolved with existing skills & knowledge Tasks that require new skills & knowledge (hence demand for new competences) Tasks that no longer need to be resolved Key results of Skills 2030 Foresight
  9. 9. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 9 Foresight of future industrial structure Identification of key new & growing industries and global economy challenges. Meta-analysis of 30+ key foresights & forecasts by leading national foresight groups (+ over 50 international foresights) Competence Foresight in key sectors Foresight of competence demand for 19 growing & new sectors, including aerospace, energy generation, smart grids, nanotechnology, biotechnology, ICT, smart transportation, preventive & personalized medicine etc. Policy recommendations for HE&TVET system. Total ca. 500 experts in ca. 20 sessions + 1500 in polling Dissemination of methodology Dissemination of results Reports for the Ministry of Education & Science and Strategic Initiatives Agency (Spring 2013) + public presentations General public report for professional orientation in collaboration with leading media agency (Summer-Fall 2013). Methodology (foresight & IT solution?)
  10. 10. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 10 Global challenges General competences required: e.g. teamwork, communication skills, understanding of economic principles etc. Also: meta-competences These skills / competences to be delivered through the majority of TVET programs Cross-sectoral challenges Key competences required to launch & support growth in new & existing sectors (in the view of thechnological development): ‘integrators’, ‘translators’, ‘adaptators’ Industry-specific challenges Key competences to support practice transformation (new technological & managerial approaches), e.g. energy audit or smart grid architecture design in energy distribution sector
  11. 11. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 11 ‘Job of the future’ profiles 120 ‘job of the future’ profiles (bundles of key competences) in 19 industries HE & TVET curriculum New competences translated into recommended curriculum changes. E.g. for HE in medicine of the future, we defined four tracks with basic training in medicine & biology, math & ICT, physics & chemistry, and economics, with further medical specialization However: recommended, not implemented Communication with general public Industry level results converted into a career-recommendation tool: Map of 100 Jobs of The Future and List of 30 Dying Jobs (to be published in leading Russian media with the support of the Agency of Strategic Initiatives since July 2013)
  12. 12. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 12 Key working tasks for knowledge- intense economic sectors 2012-15 2015-20 2020-30 Key competencies Integrated organization of R&D and production process for knowledge-intensive products Working with markets to improve existing products (evolutionary innovations) Creation & implementation of families of new products & solutions (disruptive innovations) Integrators Translators Specialists to support industrial rennovation process Adaptators Standardizers System architects, technologis ts and safety experts
  13. 13. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO Mature product industries 2012-2020 2020-2030 Machinery building, energy , transport, … Young product industries State- dependent industries ‘New’ energy, biotech & biomed, ‘new’ ICT Lack of resources to support the skills demand for fast growing industry Specialists to implement existing plans (continuation of the present) Not ready to revise their product & maekrting models Space, defense, rail transport Skills demand not supported by TVET that does not recognize emerging industries Skills demand largely covered by existing (Soviet) TVET system Skills demand is subject to government strategic decisions hostages of existing industrial models hostages of weak industrial positions hostages of government procurement
  14. 14. Substantial share of new competencies in technology-driven sectors are cross- professional competencies or meta-competencies that go beyond the demand for competencies in specific sectors. Multidisciplinarity is among the key competitive advantages of the ‘worker of the future’. For knowledge-based sectors, ‘ecosystemic’ approach is most productive: creation / preparation of teams with inter-dependent competencies that allow to invent, design, market, produce and support new products. Future-oriented approach to skills & knowledge demand is necessary for the development of new industries. However, only a highly limited share of employers is ready to discuss their future needs. The key problem here is that most industries are lacking ‘translators’ that could help connect strategic planning, technological development and human resource preparation in the industry domain. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 14
  15. 15. Paradoxically, if we want our results to be implemented, we must get involved in the implementation (i.e. share responsibility with foresight users) Case 1: UAC  leading aircraft production company (ca. 70% of Russian production) with ambitious development plans  skills anticipation for new investment plans & R&D up to 2020  verification through comparison with industry leaders (Boeing & EADS)  translated into existing TVET institutions & newly designed Case 2: Ministry of Transportation  skills anticipation to support industry strategy up to 2030  translated into existing & newly designed TVET institutions Case 3: Roadmap of a new industry (children goods & services)  skills anticipation as a part of the roadmap (and condition for successful launch)  user skills are critical! Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 15
  16. 16. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO 16 In Russian context Focused studies and TVET policies recommendations for several industries, including: • transportation (five segments: automotive, naval, aero, rail, c ity) • goods & services for children • nanotechnology In international context ILO project with SKOLKOVO: • international workshop for methodology revision & development (July 2013) • pilot projects in target countries (TBD)