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Les scénarios comme outil d’analyse du risque de transition énergétique : questions pour la macroéconomie

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Intervention de Michel Lepetit, Vice-président du Shift, sur le sujet "Les scénarios comme outil d’analyse du risque de transition énergétique : questions pour la macroéconomie" lors des Ateliers du Shift du 20 juin 2017.

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Les scénarios comme outil d’analyse du risque de transition énergétique : questions pour la macroéconomie

  1. 1. www.theshiftproject.org Les scénarios comme outil d’analyse du risque de transition énergétique : questions pour la macroéconomie communication@theshiftproject.org Ateliers du Shift 20/06/2017
  2. 2. The Shift Project Michel LEPETIT Vice-Président, The Shift Project Les scénarios comme outil d’analyse du risque de transition énergétique : questions pour la macroéconomie & exemples historiques
  3. 3. LES SCENARIOS o (I) Le cadre de l’action :  les personnages en quête de hauteur o (II) Le temps de l’action :  Futur antérieur & plus que parfait www.theshiftproject.org
  4. 4. (I) CADRE : LE SCENARIO DES SCENARIOS o (1) Qui s’intéresse au long terme ?  La COP 21 et les NDC  Les scénarios pour les risques de transition  Le débat sur le taux d’actualisation o (2) Les projets du SHIFT et les fondamentaux  Les interrogations sur le G-III du GIEC  Les fondements du projet RISKERGY (2012-2016) : scénarios pays  Le groupe VLTROs (2016-) avec les shifters  Le projet AFEP 2017 et le SBT o (3) Focus pétrole/PIB  GW : Une vision macroéconomique  Le débat économique sur la productivité et la « stagnation » « séculaire »  Dés ? Coups ? Plage ? www.theshiftproject.org
  5. 5. (I.1) Le long terme … sur la longue durée o COP21 et INDC  Des cibles à long terme (2030)  Transformer ces cibles en trajectoires, en scénarios o Les risques de transition  ≠ risques physiques (autre catégorie de scénarios)  Une première tentative : article 173 – Les limites des stress tests – Un substitut aux scenarios de stress tests : rapport de la DGT sur le risque bancaire – Rapport DGT : 111 pages ; 222 occurrences de « scenario »  Le projet de rapport de la TCFD fin 2016 – Rapport complémentaire sur les scénarios – IHS juin 2017 : Misuse of scenarios  Stress test et scénario : ACPR/BOE/DNB juin 2017 o Le débat sur le taux d’actualisation  Les analyses Coût/bénéfice et les projections (Nordhaus)  La formule de Ramsey : R = A + G × Y  Le débat économique sur la productivité et la stagnation séculaire www.theshiftproject.org
  6. 6. Article 173 et TCFD : le sujet devient concret www.theshiftproject.org
  7. 7. le sujet devient TRES concret Datewww.theshiftproject.org
  8. 8. FRANCE www.theshiftproject.org
  9. 9. (I.2) Le SHIFT plein de « PROJECTS » o Le GIEC, sciences « dures » et sciences sociales  Le groupe III (« atténuation du CC »)  La crise du rapport Stern (2006) et la polémique sur le taux d’actualisation  Le séminaire des Houches 2014 o Le groupe de travail TSP : VLTROs (2016)  Qui s’exprime sur le PIB à long terme ?  Quid de la production/consommation de pétrole ?  Quid du consortium IAMC ? – Integrated Assessment models o Le projet AFEP-TSP 2017  Les méthodologies d’analyse des risques liés au climat  L’émergence de la méthodologie « science based target » fondée sur les scénarios – « forward looking » www.theshiftproject.org
  10. 10. HOUCHES 2014 www.theshiftproject.org l’étude "physique" des différents scénarios énergétiques existants. The goal of setting up shared notions, definitions, and assessment or interpolation methods, requires a thorough cross-disciplinary scientific debate.
  11. 11. SHIFTERS ET VLTROs o Le très long terme  Recenser – Banques centrales ; Consensus forecast ; pétroliers ; McKinsey ; WEC … – Absence de la Banque mondiale ; du FMI …  Analyser les méthodologies o Le PIB  L’OCDE au centre du jeu d’acteurs  La galaxie de l’IAMC … o Le pétrole  Avant l’énergie, la croissance www.theshiftproject.org
  12. 12. Modeling uncertainty in climate change a multi-model comparison Datewww.theshiftproject.org
  13. 13. Exemple : le WEC, l’énergie et la croissance Global economic growth that both drives energy demand and is directly impacted by energy price volatility remains high on the global agenda. Recent history has shown that falling oil prices have largely failed to boost economic growth in consuming countries but they have had a dramatic impact on the scal balances of hydrocarbon-producing countries. Societal welfare and employment depend on continued economic growth which in turn is closely intertwined with energy consumption and production. Falling energy prices might not boost economic growth but the inverse is true: economic growth does boost energy demand. The New Growth Normal The effects of economic growth, or lack thereof, was one of the issues of highest change globally from 2016 to 2017.
  14. 14. (I.3) FOCUS PETROLE ET PIB o Pourquoi une vision macroéconomique  Le rôle central de l’énergie ; et le rôle majeur de l’énergie majeure  Ou encore : quel substitut à l’énergie ? Quel substitut au pétrole ?  JMJ (TSP) ; G. Giraud (Chaire E&P) ; M Arnoux (LIED) o S’inviter dans le débat sur la stagnation séculaire  Colloque sur la stagnation séculaire – Janvier 2016 Collège de France – Banque de France  Le scénario du « candide » JC Trichet o Créer la passerelle entre l’histoire économique et la transition à venir :  un projet pour TSP, le LIED, la Chaire E&P – Les transitions passées – Les réels moteurs de la croissance (GPT)  La question essentielle du DECOUPLAGE www.theshiftproject.org
  15. 15. II - EXEMPLES o Le scenarios ESSO 1973  Le monde infini o LES SCENARIOS AIE  Le PIB exogène  Le découplage PIB/huile et la transition – The link between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and economic growth showed signs of weakening in 2014. – For the link to be broken, as it must be for the 2°C Scenario (2DS) to be achieved, improvements in energy efficiency and deployment of low-carbon technologies and fuels must be accelerated. (…) – Decarbonising the energy system is the key to decoupling global CO2 emissions from economic growth. o Les constantes  Les corrélations PIB/huile – To realise the 2DS, transport emissions need to peak and begin to decline within the next decade. Aggressive policies are required across all modes of transport to meet the 2DS, with strong interventions to promote more sustainable transport modes, vehicle efficiency, and low-carbon fuels. www.theshiftproject.org
  16. 16. EXEMPLES o DECOUPLER ?  For the 2DS to be achieved, CO2 emissions must be decoupled from economic growth, i.e. as economic growth continues, global energy-related CO2 emissions must fall. Two components must come together to make this happen. Energy demand must be decoupled from economic growth and CO2 emissions from energy demand. – Efforts to decouple energy demand from economic growth by improving energy efficiency have met with some success. Investments over the last 25 years have led to a steady increase in energy efficiency across each of the main sectors – electricity, industry, transport and buildings. In 2014, the estimate of avoided total final consumption from energy efficiency investments rose to over 520 million tonnes of oil- equivalent or 22 EJ. The energy efficiency market is anticipated to continue to grow, even in the current context of lower oil prices (IEA, 2015e). – The decoupling of CO2 emissions from primary energy demand has been less successful, but there are signs of movement in the relationship. The energy sector carbon intensity index (ESCII) has held largely stable over the past 25 years. For a combination of reasons, however – such as competition from lower- carbon fuels in the United States and China’s extensive energy transformation – evidence has been building that the CO2 intensity of primary energy demand is losing strength. www.theshiftproject.org
  17. 17. UN PEU D’HISTOIRE : vision « classique » de la corrélation Datewww.theshiftproject.org Michel Lepetit vous prie de l’excuser, un certain nombre de ses slides/graphiques ne sont pas encore ouvertes à la diffusion.
  18. 18. CONCLUSIONS o Réfléchir aux scénarios et la longue durée  Le poids de l’histoire et les transitions passées  Le signal prix ? o Critiquer les scénarios  La croissance ? Exogène ?  L’atténuation sans impact ? o Bâtir des scénarios ?  Géographiques et/ou sectoriels : NDC + SBT = GW  Procrastiner la procrastination ? www.theshiftproject.org
  19. 19. AIE : le scénario des scénarios www.theshiftproject.org
  20. 20. www.theshiftproject.orgcommunication@theshiftproject.org Merci pour votre attention ! Nous restons à votre disposition durant la pause repas Wifi : Mas_Wifi Mot de passe : Mas_Wifi #AteliersduShift @theshiftpr0ject Ateliers du Shift 20/06/2017

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