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Vision for a roadmap to autonomy final

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Presentation to SAE February 16, 2018.

Published in: Automotive
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Vision for a roadmap to autonomy final

  1. 1. Vision for a Roadmap to Autonomy
  2. 2. Autonomous Vehicles Are EVERYWHERE!
  3. 3. Embark’s self-driving truck completes 2,400 mile cross-U.S. trip
  4. 4. Are YOU Ready?
  5. 5. HYPE—Heady Yarn for Price/Earnings • Lots of conferences worldwide • Who’s doing the work if everyone is attending conferences and TALKing about it? • Technology Always Looks Kool!
  6. 6. 49 Companies Licensed to Test in California • Volkswagen Group of America • Mercedes Benz • Way • Delphi Automotive • Tesla Motors • Bosch • Nissan • GM Cruise LLC • BMW • Honda • Ford • Zoox, Inc. • Drive.ai, Inc. • Faraday & Future Inc. • Valeo North America, Inc. • NIO USA, Inc. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/testing • Telenav, Inc. • NVIDIA Corporation • AutoX Technologies Inc. • Subaru • Udacity, Inc. • Navy INc. • Renovo.auto • UATC LLC (Uber) • PlusAi INc. • Nuro, Inc. • CarOne LLC • Apple Inc. • Bauer’s Intelligent Transportation • Pony.AI • TuSimple • Jingchi Corp • SAIC Innovation Center, LLC • AImotive Inc • Aurora Innovation • Nullmax • Samsung Electronics • Continental Automotive Systems Inc • Voyage • CYNGN, Inc. • Roadstar.Ai • Changan Automobile • Lyft, Inc. • Phantom AI • Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. • aiPod, Inc. • SF Motors Inc. • Toyota Research Institute • Apex.AI
  7. 7. Trucking Companies— Electric/Autonomous • Embark • tuSimple • Tesla • Nikola • Thor • Hyliion e-Axle • Meritor • Cummins • Caterpillar • GAZ Group • Proterra • Volvo • Daimler Trucks • Navistar • PACCAR • Toyota • Uber ATG (Otto) • TransPower • Siemens • Iveco • MAN/SCANIA • KAMAZ
  8. 8. New Names • Auro Robotics • Einride • GAZ Group • Local Motors • NAVYA • SB Drive • Starsky Robotics • Volgabus • Yutong
  9. 9. Mining
  10. 10. Bus
  11. 11. Big Trucks
  12. 12. Work, Ag & Short Haul
  13. 13. Indoor Work
  14. 14. Package Delivery Toyota unveils autonomous e-commerce concept vehicle, development alliance Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
  15. 15. Car GM will make an autonomous car without steering wheel or pedals by 2019
  16. 16. Door Delivery
  17. 17. Bik e
  18. 18. Dron e
  19. 19. Personal
  20. 20. Range—How Far and Fast Can You Go? • Last 50 Feet • Last Mile • Local Delivery • Short Daily Range • Medium Daily Range • Long Daily Range • 4 mph • 10 mph • 25 mph • 40 mph • 55 mph • 70 mph
  21. 21. Pain and Benefits—More AND Less • Higher uptime • Reach where others can’t—Medical to rural • Lower fuel costs • Handle declining manpower, aging population • Increase profits from 24/7 operation • Improve environment • GM Zero Future—emissions, accidents, congestion • Reduce accidents • Reduce congestion—less time to get places • Reduce emissions
  22. 22. Costs Driven More • 50% increase in diesel fuel cost in 2 yrs • Oil above $65/barrel • Drilling starting up again
  23. 23. What’s Important to You and Your Business? • Fuel Economy • Aerodynamics • Speed • Safety • Enjoyment • Yes, some people enjoy driving • Profit Margins • Total Societal Impact (TSI)
  24. 24. Autonomous Vehicles Are the Next Robot
  25. 25. Cruise Control Adaptive Cruise Control Self Parking Tesla AutoPilot Platooning Highway Only “DriverLess” Embark TuSimple Tesla Semi
  26. 26. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
  27. 27. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
  28. 28. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
  29. 29. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
  30. 30. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
  31. 31. Multiple Paths to Autonomy Vertical IntegrationHorizontal Integration Legislation Regulation Actuators CyberSecurity Sight Sensors GPS Mapping Artificial Intelligence V2X Vehicle PowerPlant Moral DecisionsInsurance Interior DesignHearing ISO26262 Where UnionsWireless Infrastructure Privacy Training Roads
  32. 32. Seeing Is Believing
  33. 33. I Can’t See You! • Lidar • Radar • Vision • Monocular • Stereo • 360º • 360º Bird’s Eye View • Ultrasonic • V2X
  34. 34. STMicroelectronics Radar Roadmap MMIC SoC Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuit System on a Chip
  35. 35. Radar Improving Magna unveils high-definition ICON RADAR – scJanuary 16, 2018
  36. 36. Cameras—Smaller, Cheaper, Better
  37. 37. Night Vision Improving DENSO develops new vision sensor for improve
  38. 38. Road Repairs in the RoadMap
  39. 39. https://hackernoon.com/mit-6-s094-deep-learning-for-self-driving-cars-2018-lecture-2-notes-e283b9ec10a0 Who You Gonna Trust?
  40. 40. So, When Will This Happen? • Kids 15-25 years to autonomy • What does it take? • Education • Practice • Failure • Injuries • Intelligence
  41. 41. Consumer Technology Adoption 20-90 yrs.
  42. 42. CarPlay Announced in 2013? Toyota and Lexus vehicles will finally start getting CarPlay
  43. 43. Impressive Growth of Cameras and Radar
  44. 44. Still Only 50%
  45. 45. Will Auto Car Profit Potential Drive It?
  46. 46. Asia Usurps Everyone for Trucks
  47. 47. Daimler Makes A Lot of Trucks
  48. 48. 1.7 Million Heavy Trucks per Year
  49. 49. Autonomous Vehicle Sales Could Reach 188,00 Looking ahead, Tractia’s researchers found that the market will continue to develop at a strong pace over the next few years with more competiti An executive summary of the report can be downloaded by visiting Tractia’s website.
  50. 50. 100,000 Autonomous Trucks Is Just 3%/yr.
  51. 51. Just 0.04% of Commercial Vehicles in Operation
  52. 52. When? Office of the Inspector General
  53. 53. Kia & Peugeot Peugeot CEO: All PSA vehicles will electrified by 2025
  54. 54. Daimler, Bosch Self-driving taxis from Daimler, Bosch Feb. 5, 2018 2:29 AM ET|By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor More robo-taxis? Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF), the world's No.1 maker of premium cars, and Bosch (OTC:BSWQY), the world's No.1 automotive supplier, will begin testing the vehicles "in the coming months." "Apart from highly autonomous level 3 vehicles we will also bring fully autonomous vehicles - level 4/5 - to the streets in the foreseeable future," Daimler's Wilko Stark told Automobilwoche.
  55. 55. What Will Power the Autonomous Vehicle? • Diesel • Biodiesel • Gasoline • Natural Gas • BioGas • Propane • Ethanol • Electricity • Fuel Cell • Battery • Catenary
  56. 56. Autonomous—Connected—Electrified
  57. 57. No More Gas—It’s NOT a Pill • CA Bill to banish gas cars by 2040 • China, France, U.K. on record against gas
  58. 58. Big Push for Electric
  59. 59. How Stories Change with Technology
  60. 60. Electric Commercial Vehicles Are Here NOW FUSO eCanter – first all-electric trucks in series production delivered to customers in Europe
  61. 61. Cat Got Your Tongue? Electrified Highway Goes Live to Serve Ports of Long Beach, Los Angeles
  62. 62. Electrified
  63. 63. Some Questions to Consider
  64. 64. Difficult to Interpret Lane Markings
  65. 65. School Bus Is Uniquely USA
  66. 66. Can’t Stay On Track?
  67. 67. HyperLoop—High Speed Rail in a Tunnel
  68. 68. Mistakes ARE Inevitable Robots (Autonomous Vehicles) Will Make Fatal AutoMyles – Paul Myles There’s a potentially heavy ethical price to pay towards a safer future, Continental’s Dr. Elmar Degenhart to People killed by autonomous vehicles are an inevitable price to pay for a Vision Zero future. That’s the admission made by Dr. Elmar Degenhart, chief executive officer and executive board member of When asked to reflect on comments made to us by Lockheed Martin’s Michael DeKort in the article Guinea He said: “No technology is perfect. We might see cars that are driving at Level 4, Level 5 which will not be a
  69. 69. Some Questions? • How does it go through a weigh station? • Who is responsible for Pre/Post Trip? • How do I get pizza to my door? • How does a Starbucks’ drive thru work? • How do you validate self-learning software? • If someone in vehicle, what is the human interface? • What will it cost to repair after a crash? • If I’m running to catch a bus, will it wait for me?
  70. 70. My Conclusions for Fleets • Not everyone can survive • All struggling to figure measurable benefit to fleet • Always takes longer than people think • It will happen • You can’t live without cell telephone today • When it was Analog/2G it was a hard sell
  71. 71. Robotic Car or Driver?

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