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TMC 2013 Far Horizon Tech Session

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DOE, Cummins, Eaton and Tech-I-M presentations including fleet survey

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TMC 2013 Far Horizon Tech Session

  1. 1. Future TruckOver the Horizon
  2. 2. Future TruckLooking Far Over the Horizon: Fleet Managers’ Assessment Of Future Equipment Needs: 2025 and Beyond
  3. 3. PresentersKen Howden Jeff Seger Tom Stover Paul Menig DOE Cummins Engine Eaton Tech-I-M SuperTruck Engine Transmission Fleet Vehicle Survey
  4. 4. SuperTruck Initiative and 21st Century Truck Partnership Ken Howden Director 21st Century Truck Partnership Vehicle Technologies Office U.S. Department of Energy
  5. 5. Outline•  Background•  21st Century Truck Partnership•  SuperTruck Initiative
  6. 6. Truck Fuel Use Projected to IncreaseSource - ExxonMobil 2012 The Outlook forEnergy: A View to 2040 •  Commercial transportation energy demand projected to expand 70% worldwide (2010-2040) -  World fuel use for trucks will exceed fuel use for all personal vehicles (2030) •  Fewer fuel/technology options in heavy-duty -  Limited opportunity for electrification (vs. light- duty) -  Technology hurdles for alternative fuels •  Limited opportunity at present for freight mode shifts -  Doubling rail intermodal shipments increases rail freight market share by only 0.3% Need increased truck fuel efficiency to mitigate these projected increases
  7. 7. Truck Research Landscape – Issues and NeedsFUEL USE • Projected to increase for trucks • Need efficiency improvements • Truck sales are cyclicalSALES • Unpredictable corporate R&D NEED FOR funding INVESTMENT IN • Accelerate COLLABORATIVE technology R&D FOR THE development • HD similar to LD in % of revenue TRUCKING • Provide focusR&D invested in R&D, but fewer total INDUSTRY for R&D efforts dollars invested • Information exchange forum • Regulations impact all areas ofREGS trucking industry • Much R&D investment to meet these regulations
  8. 8. 21st Century Truck Partnership•  21CTP message –  Accelerate introduction of truck and bus technologies to reduce fuel use, increase fuel diversity, operate more safely, increase reliability, meet future emissions standards, and maintain cost effectiveness•  Research partnership between government and industry•  Regulatory environment informs 21CTP needs/gaps/ barriers –  21CTP goals are longer-range/higher risk, and complement near-term regulatory goals
  9. 9. The Partners
  10. 10. 21CTP Research Focus Areas•  Engine Systems•  Heavy-Duty Hybrid Systems•  Vehicle Power Demands•  Idle Reduction•  Safety•  Efficient Operations New technical roadmap document presents goals and objectives for these areas
  11. 11. 21CTP and SuperTruck•  National Academy of Sciences conducts periodic reviews of 21CTP –  Review progress, provide recommendations for future consideration –  Favorable results from most recent review – continue partnership, refine goals and objectives•  Defined and implemented a new “SuperTruck” initiative for improvement of freight efficiency at the vehicle system level –  Addresses previous NAS recommendations –  Four teams (all 21CTP members) –  Goal of 50% improvement in freight efficiency (ton-mi/gal) –  Received positive feedback on SuperTruck from NAS panel
  12. 12. Range of Heavy Vehicle Technologies
  13. 13. Class 8 Tractor-Trailer Energy Balance Energy losses in Class 8 trucks and Trailer skirts opportunities for efficiency Gap reduction improvements Tractor/trailer integration (major redesign) Combustion improvements Highway 21% Turbocompounding Urban 5% Waste heat recovery Highway 59% Urban 58% Highway 2% Urban 7% Electric accessories APU Highway 16% Highway 2% Urban 9% Highway 0% Urban 5% Urban 16% New generation wide base single tires Reduced drivetrain friction Tire compounds, casing, tread Hybridization Automated manual transmissions Central tire inflation Heavy-duty trucks use 20% of the fuel consumed in the United States.Fuel economy improvements in these trucks directly and quickly reduces petroleum consumption
  14. 14. SuperTruck Initiative•  Goal: To develop and demonstrate a 50% improvement in overall freight efficiency on a heavy-duty Class 8 tractor-trailer measured in ton-miles per gallon and achieve 50% (and showing pathway to 55%) engine thermal efficiency•  Cooperative R&D Agreement Awards: –  Cummins Inc. with Peterbilt (ARRA Funded) –  Daimler Trucks North America (ARRA Funded) –  Navistar, Inc. –  Volvo Trucks North America
  15. 15. Cummins/Peterbilt SuperTruck Team•  Cummins – engine/contract lead•  Modine – cooling module FUNDING:•  Eaton –transmission DOE Share $38.8M•  Dana – drivetrain Contractor Share $42.1M•  Bridgestone – fuel efficient tires•  Alcoa – wheels•  Delphi – solid oxide fuel cell APU•  Bergstrom – eSHVAC•  Garmin – 3D map and display•  Exa – CFD analysis•  Utility Trailer Manufacturing – trailer•  US Xpress – end user
  16. 16. Daimler SuperTruck Team•  DTNA – vehicle development FUNDING:•  Detroit Diesel – powertrain DOE Share $39.6M•  Daimler Research – waste heat Contractor Share $39.6M•  Oregon State University – composite frame analysis, fuel efficient routing•  Schneider National – end user•  Wal-Mart – end user•  Great Dane – trailer•  ARC – aerodynamics•  Solar World Industries America – auxiliary power
  17. 17. Navistar SuperTruck Team•  Navistar – principal investigator, vehicle systems integrator controls FUNDING: systems, engine & vehicle testing DOE Share $37.3M•  Alcoa – lightweight frame & wheel Contractor Share $51.8M materials•  AT Dynamics – trailer aerodynamic devices•  Meritor – hybrid powertrain, axles•  Behr America – cooling systems•  Michelin – low rolling resistance tires•  TPI – composite material structures•  Wabash National – trailer technologies•  Argonne National Lab – hybrid drive simulation and controls & battery testing•  Lawrence Livermore National Lab – aerodynamic testing
  18. 18. Volvo SuperTruck Team•  Volvo Technology of America – Lead FUNDING:•  Volvo Group Truck Technology – DOE Share $19M aerodynamics, lightweighting, Contractor Share $19M auxiliaries•  Volvo Group Powertrain Engineering – engine, transmission, axles•  Penn State University – engine simulation and testing•  Grote - lighting•  Freight Wing - aerodynamics•  University of California Los Angeles – Rankine waste heat recovery simulation•  Ricardo, Inc. – Rankine system integration•  Hendrickson - suspension•  Meritor - brakes
  19. 19. Current SuperTruck Project Status•  Teams are approaching the midpoint of their 4 to 5 year projects –  All teams on track to meet 50% engine efficiency goal –  One team demonstrated 51% engine efficiency in a laboratory setting –  Aerodynamic improvements and weight reduction have demonstrated freight efficiency improvement of greater than 20% –  All teams expect to exceed the 50% freight efficiency improvement goal based on prototype vehicle evaluation completed to date
  20. 20. Summary•  21st Century Truck Partnership provides a forum for industry and government participants to identify technical gaps and barriers, develop goals and synergize technology development.•  SuperTruck Initiative combines government and industry resources to develop technical solutions for Class 8 truck freight efficiency that are innovative and suitable for commercialization.
  21. 21. Diversified Global Power Leader Engines Power Components Distribution Generation Four Complementary BusinessesFuture Trends in Fuel EfficiencyJeff Seger, Executive Director Cummins Inc.
  22. 22. Evolution of Technology New Technologies NOx, PM CO2 Selective Catalytic Reduction Diesel Particulate Filter Cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation Electronic Fuel Systems Aftercooling 221990 2000 2010 2020
  23. 23. Component Technology Integration Air Handling & EGRCombustionFuel Aftertreatment (AT)Systems Electronic Controls Waste Heat Recovery 23
  24. 24. Looking AheadWaste Heat Base Engine RecoveryPowertrain Aftertreatment & Hybrids 24
  25. 25. Technologies for 50% Engine Thermal Efficiency Base Engine & Aftertreatment SuperTruck Efficiency Improvement Results   Piston bowl size & shape   Calibration optimization   Lower dP EGR loop   Turbocharger efficiency   AfterTreatment Efficiency Parasitic Reductions   Variable flow lube pump   Cylinder kit friction   Cooling & fuel pump power WHR system   EGR, Exhaust, Recuperator   Turbine Expander   Low GWP Refrigerant 25
  26. 26. Transmission Integration •  Partner with all transmission suppliers in the industry •  Technology Trends –  Down-speeding the engine –  Weight Reduction –  Increased data communication26
  27. 27. Hybrids Waste Heat RecoveryFuel Economy Benefit Frequent Seldom Duty Cycle Start/Stop Start/Stop 27
  28. 28. Energy Balance and WHR Sources Brake Power (42%)Fuel Energy(100%) Friction/ Misc Losses (8%) Heat Transfer (24%) Exhaust Energy (26%) Engine Cooling Quality Waste Low Heat 80-100o C Charge Air Cooling 20-60o C Waste Cooled EGR Heat 200-750o C Tailpipe Exhaust 200-600o C Energy balance of engine shows that EGR and Exhaust gas stream energy are the primary sources for energy recovery. 28
  29. 29. Waste Heat Recovery (Line Haul) Pump   Working  Fluid  –  Closed  Cycle  Boiler  /  Superheater   Exhaust  /  EGR   Waste  Heat   Waste  Heat   Power  Turbine   AddiConal    Power   /Expander   Condenser   Waste  Heat   29
  30. 30. WHR: Projected Customer Savings Projected DF2 $6,500   Price $ / gallon $4.25   $6,000   $4.50   $4.75   $5.00   Savings per year for the $5,500   $5.25   Customer ($) $5,000   $4,500   $4,000   $3,500   $3,000   3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%30 WHR Fuel Economy Benefits
  31. 31. Vehicle Integration WHR EGR Heat Exchanger WHR Recuperator WHR Condensor WHR Exhaust Heat Exchanger Exhaust Aftertreatment31
  32. 32. Powertrains of 2025 •  Fearless Forecasts •  Technology Trends •  Vendor’s View Tom Stover Chief Technology Officer Eaton Vehicle GroupConfidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
  33. 33. Fearless ForecastsMake regulations a win-win Fuel economy improvement of 30-40% over 2010 baseline Upward pressure on fuel economy Energy Energy EPA DOT Competition Policy CostsConfidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
  34. 34. Fearless ForecastsNatural, Diesel, Fuel Efficiency and Greenhouse gases NG Diesel Energy Availability/Cost Efficiency NG will level with Diesel over time Competition ProfitsConfidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
  35. 35. Technology Trends:Trucks get more slippery Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) •  Aerodynamics •  Rolling Resistance Cruise power cut by 50%Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
  36. 36. Technology Trends:Hybrid Potential Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) •  Improvements in recoverable- energy, motors and batteries will make the hybrid system payback more attractive - increasing hybrids in most applications! F.E.hyb = f(K.E./R.L., HPabs, HPmot, CAPbat, Duty Cycle) More Bigger, Bigger, recoverable -energy + cheaper motors + cheaper batteriesConfidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
  37. 37. Technology Trends:Fuel Economy Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) •  Aerodynamics •  Advanced Controls •  Rolling Resistance •  Driver Control •  Hybrids Engine •  Combustion •  Advanced Aftertreament •  Exh. Energy Recovery •  DownspeedingConfidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
  38. 38. Technology Trends:Fuel Economy Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) •  Aerodynamics •  Advanced Controls •  Rolling Resistance •  Driver Control •  Hybrids Automation is a fuel economy enabler Engine •  Combustion •  Advanced Aftertreament •  Exh. Energy Recovery •  DownspeedingConfidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
  39. 39. Automated Transmissions Advanced automated transmissions enable fuel economy Downspeeding Advanced Controls Driver Controls •  Enabled by • GPS •  Shift decisions Automation • Traffic density •  Vehicle dynamics •  Shift performance is • V2V •  Power demand critical • V2I •  SafetyConfidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
  40. 40. A Supplier’s View: •  The independent suppliers have: –  Scale –  Ability to invest –  Strong partnerships –  Proven integration skill •  We continue to provide optimized business solutions to our customers!Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
  41. 41. Paul Menig
  42. 42. Survey Timeline•  2012 –  Q2 Development –  Q3 Pilot –  Q4 Approval and start•  2013 –  Q1 Initial completion and first results –  Q2 Start of interviews and continued survey –  Q4 SAE ComVec Executive Panel•  2014 –  Q1-4 Write position papers•  2015 –  Q1 Future Truck position papers published
  43. 43. Survey Overview•  22 Categories – bumper to trailer tail lights•  4 parts –  Part 1 November 2012 75 respondents –  Part 2 December 2012 57 respondents –  Part 3 January 2013 43 respondents –  Part 4 February 2013 39 respondents•  Request fleets to participate in all 4 parts
  44. 44. Respondent OverviewPurchasing Other 9% Position 13% Time in Industry <10 years Maintenance 5% 78% 10-19 years 13% 20-24 years 21% >25 years 61%
  45. 45. Fleet Overview Tractors Trucks 100-250 3% >250 <10 >1000 5% 8% 15% 50-100500-1000 8% 5% 10-50 11% 10-100 Trailers 35% <10 100-500 <10 73% 37% >1000 8% 16% 500-1000 6% 10-100 28% 100-500 42%
  46. 46. Driver Type Company Owner/Operator >1000 500-1000 4% 1% <10 >1000 8% 16% 100-500500-1000 12% 6% 10-100 28% 10-100 17% <10 66% 100-500 42%
  47. 47. Basis for Statements•  Usage percentage based on >50% of respondents•  Other numbers, > 50% of respondents –  Absolutely Much more –  Most Likely More –  Probably About the same –  Maybe Less –  No Much Less Likely = Absolutely + Most Likely > 50% of Respondents
  48. 48. Engine and Under Hood•  13 Liter Engine with 401-450HP•  Oil change interval > 60,000 miles•  Electric power steering likely•  > 25% usage of computer controlled air compressor•  > 9 mpg
  49. 49. Hybrids & Alternative Fuels•  Diesel/electric hybrids, CNG, LNG –  Each likely to be > 10%, maybe 25% share•  Biofuel above 16%, possibly above 25%•  Could something else power a vehicle? –  23% say no•  Class 6/7 will stay diesel
  50. 50. After Treatment•  SCR a winner, but with only 28%•  72% believe SCR/EGR or something else•  40% believe first cleaning in <600K miles•  Waste heat recovery likely•  Vertical exhaust will be gone – NOT true•  Should be smaller
  51. 51. Transmissions & Clutches•  Class 8 AMT’s above 60% usage•  Hydraulic automatic transmission increase –  Class 8 above 15% –  Class 6-7 above 70%, rest AMT/manual•  Clutch life > 500K miles
  52. 52. Axles and Wheel Ends•  >60% say axles and wheel ends will be lighter•  Aluminum hubs >60% usage•  Metal matrix composite drums >15% usage•  80% 10 lugs, 20% 8 or something else•  Torque retightening still needed•  Probably reduce 3 wheel systems to 1•  Disc brake usage above 75%
  53. 53. Tires•  Wide based singles usage >40%•  Will last > 10-25% more than today –  Steer, drive, tandem, axle, trailer•  Probably have tread depth sensors•  Tractor Tire pressure monitor/control >80% usage
  54. 54. Aerodynamics•  Under vehicle air likely to be managed•  Trailer gap dynamic control likely•  Fifth wheel height dynamic is probable•  No external antennas likely•  Cameras replacing mirrors—maybe –  42% say likely for hood mounted –  35% say likely for side view
  55. 55. Anti Idle Equipment•  Main engine will not be used•  Plug in unlikely•  Will APU be diesel powered? –  29% believe battery powered –  25% believe fuel cell
  56. 56. Trailers•  38% believe in doubles/triples•  34% believe longer trailers•  39% believe more trailer axles•  65% believe separate trailer tracking•  58% believe lighter weight•  55% believe more connections to tractor•  Tire pressure monitor/control >80% usage•  Blind spot/backup monitors >40% usage
  57. 57. Durability/Reliability•  Today – 54% keep more than 6 years•  Tomorrow – 61% keep more than 6 years –  Less than 4 years will see an increase•  More reliability in 2015•  Windshields will last 1-2 years Today Tomorrow
  58. 58. Cab Interior•  62% say probably full width cab•  76% say sleepers likely to have bunks•  Drivers may be more fit than today•  96% say more electric-powered devices likely•  Sleepers more than 40% of sales
  59. 59. Instrumentation•  76% say OEM’s likely to integrate & eliminate 3rd party controls, but will not control fleet management•  Multiple round gauges may be normal –  >80% expect programmable, flat panel, color, touch screens•  CB’s still may be used•  78% say satellite radio likely to be used•  69% say more steering wheel/column mounted controls likely
  60. 60. Safety & Driver Assistance•  >80% usage of Lane Departure•  >80% radar collision warning/mitigation•  >60% usage of blind spot monitors•  >40% usage of cameras monitoring driver•  Single supplier integration probably –  Yet vertical integration likely
  61. 61. Connected Vehicle•  Vehicle to Infrastructure Communications likely•  Toll tags will be replaced, but more toll tags expected•  Vehicle to Vehicle Communications probably•  Driverless vehicle platooning a maybe•  Wireless communications tractor to trailer likely
  62. 62. Electrical/Electronic•  Ethernet likely•  24 Volts is probable•  More computers and more data links•  Fewer batteries -- maybe•  77% would likely pay for better connectors•  All LED lighting absolutely
  63. 63. Service Tools & Technicians•  Engine repair will be somewhat harder•  Handheld computers likely to replace carts•  Cameras likely to transmit images to experts•  36% mostly/all service at dealerships•  Software tools will be mostly integrated
  64. 64. Roads & Infrastructure•  More tolled highways/bridges•  Truck HOV lanes likely•  More inner city charges•  Investment to rebuild infrastructure likely•  Ton-mile tax will likely still be with us•  Higher fuel taxes•  Probably on-board weighing replaces stations
  65. 65. Regulations•  CAFE for trucks will be harder•  Longer/heavier vehicles likely allowed•  Absolutely more safety regulations•  Likely will allow cameras to replace mirrors•  Wireless roadside inspection likely•  Driver distraction regulations likely•  Standard size/weight in Americas maybe•  Federal laws superceding state probably
  66. 66. Fleet Management•  OEM’s maybe will control•  More toll tags likely –  Tolls paid by system likely•  Highly likely to provide driver feedback on fuel economy/safety•  Off duty entertainment and connection to friends and family likely•  Navigation with traffic and re-routing absolutely
  67. 67. Logistics & Shippers•  60% say likely 9PM to 6AM deliveries•  Intermodal will increase•  Electric grid powered vehicles in cities maybe•  Some other form of freight movement? –  21% no, 39% maybe, 40% more positive
  68. 68. Parts Availability & Sourcing•  More proprietary parts•  Purchase 10% dealer only, 45% mostly dealers, 45% dealer and 3rd party•  Service 8% mostly dealer, 79% dealer and own shop, 13% mostly own shop•  Overnight delivery expected –  If not, then 1 day
  69. 69. Next Steps•  Get more fleet participation in survey•  Begin more in depth interviews –  Fleets, Government, OEM’s, Tier-1 Suppliers•  SAE ComVec 2013 Executive Panel•  Get other study groups involved

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