1 of 6Cover SlideThank you for that kind introduction. It’s great to be here among people that are workingNOW to create a FUTURE that is technologically marvelous.Title Slide [CLICK]Whether On-Highway or Oﬀ, future vehicles are bound to be more complex and morevaried than today. Yet, users will expect them to be more reliable and durable. OURability to engineer products that perform as expected will depend on our vision of thefuture, our ABILITY to model the vehicle in its environment, and GOOD, SOLIDENGINEERING. We can probably see with our eyes what commercial vehicles in 2020will look like. It will take something more to ENVISIONEER the vehicle of 2030, andprepare the models and tools we will need to make them AMAZINGLY RELIABLE andEASY TO USE and MAINTAIN.Slide 2 [CLICK]Since Disney already has coined the word “imagineering,” and I don’t want to spend mytime in court arguing over trademarks, I came up with a similar word. But instead ofmaking theme parks where you can have fun, all of US are focused on [CLICK] “MakingPossibilities Real.” Doing that can take a long time--sometimes, years. For the peoplehere, YOU are already at the leading and bleeding edges of technology. YOU hold thefuture in your hands and heads every day. Let me help celebrate some successes inENVISIONEERING.Slide 3 [CLICK]For over 125 years now, Breitling has been making quality equipment. For thousands ofyears, man has ENVISIONED being able to ﬂy. Now, we CAN!!! Let’s watch. [CLICK](5:32)Slide 4 [CLICK]For over 50 years now, I have been enthralled with the space program. Last month, I metsomeone that was involved in creating the inertial navigation systems used in theMercury and Gemini capsules of the space program. He was at Honeywell in the 50‘sand 60’s. He went on to work at Control Data, and then worked on supercomputerswhile head of engineering at Floating Point Systems in the 80’s and early 90’s. Over 8years ago, NASA ENVISIONED another trip to Mars for exploration. [CLICK] ENVISION avehicle weighing 899 kg, almost 2,000 pounds, and bigger than a small car(approximately 9 ft square and 7 feet tall [9.5x8.9x7.2]) It is more than 3 times the size,and 4 times the weight of the previous rover, and carries 10 times the scientiﬁc gear.[CLICK]
2 of 6It had to ﬁt into a “transport vehicle” which looks very diﬀerent than a typical tractor-trailer rig. [CLICK] One month ago, NASA successfully landed the rover, Curiosity, on thesurface of Mars, with another satellite taking a picture of its descent. [CLICK] It safelylanded and took this early picture. We have seen even better pictures since then.Curiosity will be able to roll over obstacles approaching 30 inches in height. It will “sprint”at 300 feet per hour using automatic navigation and algorithms based on variablesincluding power levels, terrain diﬃculty, slippage, and visibility. It will go just 12 miles inits two-year mission. And HOW do you POWER such a vehicle? Not with diesel fuel orgasoline, but with nuclear power. Curiosity is powered by a radioisotope thermoelectricgenerator (RTG), like the successful Viking Mars landers in 1976. That means we havebeen using nuclear energy to power vehicles for over 35 years. [CLICK] Actually thesubmarine USS Nautilus was the ﬁrst nuclear powered vehicle--it went to sea 20 yearsearlier than that, in 1955!Slide 5 [CLICK]On May 31, the ﬁrst commercial venture successfully launched a rocket and docked inspace with the International Space Station. That’s 55 years after the ﬁrst governmentlaunched a satellite into orbit -- the USSR launching Sputnik. Let’s watch this short videoon the accomplishment. [CLICK] (2:27)Slide 6 [CLICK]Now, let’s come back down to earth, and get a bit closer to the activities of this usergroup. Sony is well known for its robotics work. [CLICK] Yet, the earliest reference I canﬁnd is only 13 years ago with the ﬁrst generation, 4 legged friend, called AIBO. [CLICK]More recently, we can all get a robot for as little as $350. It may not do much, but peopleare spending money on these things. It won’t be long now and everyone here in themidwest will have to clean out the leaves from their gutters before the rain and snowcome. [CLICK] I noticed this hyperlink in the ad. [CLICK] Anyone want to automate thisnasty task?Slide 7 [CLICK]The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, DARPA, is often at the leading edgeof technology. Here’s their latest attempt at humanoid robots. (2:04)Slide 8 [CLICK]But, did you know that 18 years ago, John Deere was moving in the same direction withthis vehicle? It had sensors in the legs that react automatically to soft, sloping or uneventerrain and a computer control system that distributed weight evenly to all six legs. Onlytwo were made. One is on display at the John Deer Pavilion in Moline. I can easilyENVISION that agricultural vehicles will be more autonomous soon--and before on-highway vehicles.
3 of 6Slide 9 [CLICK]In fact, they are already in advanced testing as shown in this video from a conferencejust last year. [CLICK] (1:59)Slide 10 [CLICK]Trucks will be the next opportunity. [CLICK] Tractors today have typically just 1 trailer.More and more often, [CLICK] they have 2 and 3 trailers thanks to the trucking industrypressing for changes in laws to allow these longer combination vehicles in more places.[CLICK] There are multiple, legal conﬁgurations. [CLICK] Michigan is somewhat uniquewith its B-Double TRAINS. [CLICK] In Australia, ROAD TRAINS exist with tens of trailersbeing pulled at a time. [CLICK] The record is 112 trailers with a single tractor. But all ofthese combinations have a physical, mechanical connection between the units. Can youENVISION an electronic, wireless connection?Slide 11 [CLICK]Let’s take a look at where we are with that approach to platooning. [CLICK] (4:02)Slide 12 [CLICK]Now, let me spend a few minutes talking about 3 trends where your help is going to beneeded.[CLICK] The ﬁrst is reliability. I may accept my iPhone slowing down when I have 30-40applications running in the background. I might accept having an application “crash”and take me back to the home screen on an iPhone. I can accept a few dropouts ofPandora music. But, the computers WE deal with, are not just entertainment devices.People’s lives are at stake for what we control. Software design and testing MUST beimproved. Communications among computers MUST be assured in acceptably smalltime frames that are imperceptible to the human behind the wheel. How many of usspend minutes or hours each week keeping our computers and entertainment electronicsat home working and updated? How many downloads of new software do we do eachweek? And, is it all compatible? I solved one problem with WiFi coverage at home byadding a powerline wireless extender. But, I cannot get the TV in our bedroom with cableto be controlled by a single remote! The cable adapter is an older IR system and the TVis diﬀerent. I seem to be stuck with one control to set the sleep timer on the TV, and theother for everything else.
4 of 6[CLICK] The next trend is fuel economy. Passenger cars have a Corporate Average FuelEconomy goal of 37.8 miles per gallon by 2016 and 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.Commercial vehicles, too, now have a Corporate Average Fuel Economy goal for 2017 aswell. The measure is a little more complicated, to take into account the work of movingfreight. It is expressed as 6.5 gallons per 1,000 ton-miles, while keeping grams CO2 perton-mile below 66) Accomplishing this reduction in our dependence on oil is going totake development at the level of understanding the plasma in the fuel cylinders duringcombustion, to the chemistry needed for the aftertreatment system, to the typical cyclesof use in everything, from city operations to long haul, to oﬀ-road. Even oﬀ-highwayequipment needs to be clean and fuel eﬃcient.[CLICK] The third trend is safety. Governments around the world are focused on savinglives and reducing accidents. For both commercial vehicles and light duty vehicles, theycontinue to press for advanced safety systems. Currently, it is braking for stabilitycontrol, and collision mitigation using radar. There will be more with lighting, wirelessroadside inspection, hours of service, and sleep apnea.That is three trends--making things reliable from the customer’s point of view, saving fueland reducing CO2 emissions, and preventing accidents that harm individuals, damageproperty and slow down traﬃc or harvesting.Slide 13 [CLICK]Now, let me connect the dots from those three trends to 3 challenges for analysis andcontrols development.The ﬁrst relates to safety. [CLICK] It’s proprietary communications. More and more,DEDICATED communications links are being put into the vehicles that use CANcommunications, but with PROPRIETARY messaging, and, sometimes, non-standardspeeds. I would not be surprised if we see even more specialized communications overthe next 10-20 years, including powerline, wireless, optical and ethernet, not to mentionthe diﬀerent protocols of ﬂexray and LIN. While these links are intended to create aclosed, safe and reliable communications network, it will make it that much more diﬃcultto assure that software and communications links are working as intended. You will notbe able to rely on well documented and tested standards. Each OEM will have to betreated with teams of people with specialized knowledge on that system.
5 of 6The second challenge comes from the emphasis on fuel economy. Only so much can bedone by trying to control the engine and the vehicle. Hybrids are already consideringchanges in how they will control the vehicle IF they know that a traﬃc light is going tochange. It will be better to slow the vehicle, and use regeneration to recharge thebattery, than to wait longer and apply the foundation brakes, creating waste heat.Vehicles are already moving rapidly toward stopping the engine as often as possible tosave the useless running of the engine, while still keeping the occupants comfortable inboth heat and cold. Megacities will need to ﬁnd ways to keep traﬃc moving bycoordinating lights and traﬃc much better than today. This is going to move us fromsimulating one computer as we did years ago, and far beyond the simulation of tens ofcomputers on a single vehicle that we do today. It is going to take us into the realm ofsimulating tens of thousands of vehicles, and developing control algorithms for thenetworked vehicle. We already have examples of nets of vehicles doing some of this.Maybe, it will start small, such as at an airport, coordinating cars dropping oﬀ people andpicking up others, while shuttle buses take passengers to and from rental cars, andtrucks deliver food and other supplies for the airport. Eventually, it could be as if eachvehicle is a “packet” on the internet highway of roads, and Traﬃc-Management-Centerservers decide when and how to route us from source to destination, using all thealgorithms already developed. If only the car packets could move as swiftly as theelectronic packets, it would not matter if we got routed to Europe and back! [CLICK] I’vecoined another acronym for this--MSS for Macro System SimulationNow, the third challenge. In the ﬁrst video I showed, the man was a key part of thecontrol system. No longer was it just mechanical wings. Head movements, and handmovements, and foot movements played critical roles in the ﬂight of the jet man. We talkabout H-I-L for Hardware-In-the Loop and S-I-L for Software-In-the Loop. More andmore, we need to model the HUMAN and his or her reactions to distractions,emergencies, warnings--whether visual, audible or haptic. We are going to need tomodel the vagaries of inattention to make our systems ultra reliable. I recently readsomeone demonstrated the ability to use a human’s eye movement to sign documents.Commercial vehicles might be controlled by where our eyes look and how we move ourhands on the steering wheel or, in the air. The areas of psychology, physiology, and man-machine interface are going to be immensely important in the future. [CLICK] I’ve addedto our dictionary the acronym Man-In-the Loop.To summarize, while you have had to deal with proprietary communications in passengercars for years, we were fortunate to have a more standardized communications systemfor commercial vehicles. But, those days are numbered. Simulation and algorithms for asingle vehicle are no longer the state of the art. We are going to need to model multiplevehicles--and even the whole of traﬃc in the future, to achieve the fuel economy andemissions targets our governments have set for us. And ﬁnally, we need to incorporate amodel for a person and his or her brain and physiological capabilities.
6 of 6Slide 14 [CLICK]Let’s take a brief look at the latest and greatest man machine interface in a passengercar. If it is just being introduced today, it will be many, many years before it iswidespread in the USA, let alone the world. [CLICK] (2:34)Slide 15 [CLICK]I like to say the future is driven both more and less. More of things like convenience,reliability and safety. And less of other things like weight, cost and emissions.Slide 16 [CLICK]I also recognize that governments around the world are driving technology for the future,as we look to solve the problems of society that are driven by the increasing populationaround the world.Slide 17 [CLICK]I am a ﬁrm believer that the future commercial vehicles, both on-highway and oﬀ-highway are here and in the news. They are prototypes today, or just concepts. Mosthave been thought of by someone at some time. The Army is working on magnetizedhighways. UPS has plastic bodied walk-in vans, and solar powered road panels are inthe concept stage.Slide 18 [CLICK]We can make driving SO EASY, that we can sit in the back seat with our friend, and eitherget work done, or be entertained, while the vehicle gets us to our destination by itself.Slide 19 [CLICK]But, it may be hard to do it all over the world.Slide 20 [CLICK]I will be around the conference throughout the day and available to talk with you further.Or, if you prefer, you can e-mail me or contact me through my web site.Slide 21 [CLICK]Now, as we get to the task of ENVISIONEERING commercial vehicles for the future, Ihave one more short video for you to enjoy. [CLICK] (1:03) Thank you everyone!!! Have agreat day.