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How hs2 will transform the West Midlands


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How hs2 will transform the West Midlands

  1. 1. '-"il ‘. ’4'It: §l"Z*I‘ Headline Results of Centre Study A national High Speed Rail network, with Birmingham at it's centre, based on the ’Y’ shaped proposal shown below would generate significant economic benefits both nationally and within the West Midlands. The initial phase between Birmingham and London, combined with enhancements to local and regional rail services, would generate: 0 A £1 .5bn increase in economic output ' 22,000 additional jobs in the Metropolitan area ' An average wage increase of £300 per worker per annum K-1 HS1 Inrmi core high speed network Purentw exnensaons to core . r . . network lrniermemaie sraunnlsl la be decided) “K A’ / Esrgvéaifnai (unnECl1on in Giugow —, . , Edinburgh U 1 Healhruw Exams nu Possrniv HS1 connect-on _ Newcasue Leeds Manchester 1 C I _" ‘ Sheff] ER Liverpool East Midlands [Blnnlvigham v m£_ / f’ ) London 3 ¢, .,, ,.. Eunm “"“": ... <+5,; f%’j Earls upon / /¥/ fBrussels Amsterdam 4/“ The impact of H32 between Birmingham and London only (without local and regional enhancements), would generate: ' A £600m increase in economic output (focused on Birmingham city centre) 0 10,000 additional jobs in the metropolitan area 0 An average wage increase of £100 per worker per annum HS2 between Birmingham and London only would therefore deliver less than half the benefits of H52 combined with local and regional rail enhancements. < HS2 Route Curran Street : X Birlninghun H52 sum» . ‘‘ ‘ City have / Sustainable Metro .1 - l ; . ~ A» » um I l “ ‘~ g: ' tlesqhhourhoods " " Metmu: ' . 1 Airport ‘ _ “bu ' . Pedestrian Link law we: HS2 Suuon London Muylebone Background to the Study 0 Centro believes improved connections resulting from HS2, combined with improvements to the existing network, will have a hugely beneficial impact on the West Midlands economy, acting as a means for economic growth. ° Centro commissioned an independent study looking at the economic impact of improved connections resulting from capacity being freed up on the existing rail network following the introduction of HS2. i. e. How the benefits of improved rail connections and access from HS2 feeds into and strengthens the local economy.
  2. 2. Strategic Context ' A new High Speed rail network will play a vital role in the growth and performance of the national and local economy. ' The network has been and is being developed within the context of national and regional policy objectives. 0 The West Midlands authorities and Integrated Transport Authority have a long-term regeneration strategy which addresses the region's competitiveness and the sustainable communities agenda. H52 and the importance of improving connections from the West Midlands to the rest of the UK is key to that strategy. Regeneration and Jobs HS2 will open up capacity on the existing rail network, enabling improvements to local services which will serve and help many regeneration and growth areas. Benefits include: ° Access to a larger pool of employees for local businesses, improving productivity and reducing business costs; ' Increased connections to a wider range of other businesses and markets; 0 Access to a greater range of job opportunities in more locations for people living in these regeneration areas. HS2 will also bring indirect benefits to many other areas of the West Midlands. This is because some of the people working in the new jobs created will spend money in other areas of the region, benefiting individual local economies. High Speed rail offers an opportunity to think differently about the current West Midlands network and its future role 0 HS2 will enable services from London to Birmingham on the existing West Coast Main Line (WCML) to be reviewed, as trips between Birmingham and Manchester, London and other destinations would transfer to the new line 0 On the WCML the frequency and speed will no longer be as pressing on issue for long distance services 0 Links to areas outside London will become more important — the route will cater for growth at such places as Milton Keynes and Northampton 0 HS2 will require a package of supporting measures on the existing rail network to maximise benefits 0 Improved interchange between Birmingham's city centre stations will be essential 0 Centro has developed initial ideas on how existing rail services could be restructured Regional Rail Enhancements Centro's strategic vision for restructuring regional rail services would deliver improvements throughout the West Midlands. Some benefits include: 0 Coventry An increase from 7 to 8 trains per hour to Birmingham and Birmingham International, an increase to 4 trains per hour to Leamington Spa, an increase to 2 trains per hour to Oxford and Reading, new services to Liverpool, Scotland, Shrewsbury and Telford. 0 Wolverhampton I extra train per hour to London, an increase from 3 to 7 trains per hour to Birmingham International, 2 trains per hour to Milton Keynes and I extra train per hour to Coventry, Shrewsbury and Telford. 0 Walsall 2 trains per hour to London, an increase from 4 to 6 trains per hour to Birmingham, 4 trains per hour to Birmingham International [currently no service) and new services to Stafford, Liverpool, Milton Keynes, Northampton, Coventry and Leamington Spa Results: Annual change in GVA due to HS2 + regional rail enhancements, £m, 2026 The map shows the impact on workplace based Gross Value Added (GVA) of High Speed Rail, and accompanying local network schemes in the West Midlands metropolitan area. Benefits are concentrated in central Birmingham, Birmingham International and Coventry. Y ; r - r— "rrr— fr . * ; s rr-"«"~ :1.‘ ‘’Y- _ 4.suqo'«a_, r V I / "c. }a. m«. '- _ 0 £50!“ i 6 L13 T. /,nl I / / ‘2 x. . *‘_k/ ,' {L}: °"" “'5 I’ ‘ I‘ ‘ , . / AIIO)do-in-‘outs: ‘~ , ,,, ,,, any 7 «ya, ,c. n-3“). _. / , , L.. J ', ,., ,, s . w I w 7 ucrmuia _ / /‘-1 , —‘E;3; _ , - - : :.. Van/ Peon» w ‘ . / X w°~. m": °1l/ .‘vl. "t: v kl . / _/ "l'Mvnvston/ I I x , , , -2’ -. _‘ 1 . r ‘B- r -; w.: .:«. Kiln: . -~ ‘ and '‘c-‘ ‘ '- Br'om»: ;‘, ¢ro Y‘, J 1 L7 _ 9 xi” I ‘cu. ;§'p. V I / _ l , _ _ ; ,.. .. '°", }" "'"' K —, __. _;n. ... ‘ ma, , :’ ‘r. :1/ . , ‘HE, ,/ I / "~—. __ l (l I. , » x. ) _4 Rooaitcn . _ ‘'7 I - ’ ~ K’ rf“ , ~ ‘/ Wxarsnel _m, O , . l 95/ l , I .1‘ / L, -‘kn ‘lwoicoolor , SlIur1or5'-rpon-Av y and -- , /4 . . . . -4; 2 ~ Source: KPMG analysis
  3. 3. High speed train image courtesy of Greengauge 21 I I VT: ::: ?~: N . - Economic variable I Change lchange I Workplace based employment I 22.000 1.51 Average wages. z 2300 I I 0.9: Workplace based GVA Em I T £1500 I 2.7: Source: KPMG analysis Total annual impacts on GVA for the West Midlands metropolitan area are estimated at £1 .5 billion in 2026, with a growth in workplace employment of approximately 22,000. This represents a rise in workplace employment of approximately 1.5%. The table below shows the impacts on residence - based employment, average wages and GVA by sub-region. Economic variable Change in I Changelln Change in residence based average wage workplace employment I based GVA Em Bham and the Black Country 13.300 £300 £1,100 I Solihull and Coventry 4,300 I £1.00 £1.00 Outside Metropolitan Area L400 I Source: KPMG analysis Economic impacts of an HS link from London to Birmingham Only The impact of High Speed services between Birmingham and London have been tested in isolation, to determine the contribution they would make to the initial HS2 + regional rail enhancements scenario. The High Speed link will impact on connectivity levels for places that will gain an improved direct or connecting service to London. Economic variable Change I lchange I Workplace based employment 7 10.000 I 0.71 I Average wages, 9: £100 0.4: I GVA. Em V 7 £600 1.1% I Source: KPMG analysis Total annual workplace GVA impact for the West Midlands Metropolitan Area with a High Speed line to London is estimated at £600 million in 2026, with a growth in workplace employment of 10,000. The majority of benefits come from increased business-to-business connections. This is a little less than half the benefit measured in the H52 + regional rail enhancements scenario. The majority of benefits are within Birmingham. l'. 'l-| 'i '. ‘l-l'll- t1:«-- -I-mg -ii"lin~ -l-Hllirl-lili ll = . . .4. . .. , .t_Li_. -i_-. -L. i,-. . . . . ..s. . . ... ... .. I Change in workplace based GVA. £m Aw I HS2 only H52 0 regional Difference scenario rail scenario Ella! " and the Black Country I [700 21.100 -21.00 Solihull and Coventry I [-100 I 2400 I -500 Source: KPMG analysis Fiscal Implications Using Treasury ’green book’ appraisal guidance and productivity impacts in the West Midlands, the net national tax revenue generated by the core scenario is estimated to be around £6.4bn over 60 years (in net present value terms). For HSR only, the implied net national tax increase would be only £2.7bn. Conclusions 0 HS2 combined with regional rail service enhancements will boost the West Midlands economy, creating 22,000 permanent jobs and a GVA impact of £1 .5bn by 2026. 0 HS2 between Birmingham and London without extra regional enhancements would deliver less than half these benefits. 0 A stronger West Midlands economy as a result of H52, and complementary rail improvements, would generate tax revenue of some £6.4bn. This could finance new and improved infrastructure. To achieve these benefits work needs to begin on: ° A package of investments on the regional rail network to support growth and improve connectivity into HS2 from the whole region 0 Wider public transport improvements across the region, and within Birmingham city centre. Additional benefits would include: 0 Reduced congestion on local and national roads 0 New public transport users 0 A fall in carbon emissions and improved local air quality 0 Improved access to regeneration areas 0 Better connections between people and jobs I-i-ii Ill'll—~‘l'll(<l' 1- ‘A-l'li nu-lr -ilru. -i-in. +.i«'- in
  4. 4. How HS2 Will Transform the West Midlands centro transfonning public transport