A model of conterfactual attack/defense communication (Aix 2016)
1. A model of counterfactual
attack/defense communication
Patrizia Catellani & Mauro Bertolotti
Aix-en-Provence, 1-4 June 2016
2. Patrizia Catellani
Time past and time future
What might have been and what has been
Point to one end, which is always present.
T.S. Eliot Burnt Norton, Four Quartets
3. Patrizia Catellani
Overview
• CF Communication
• CF Attack Defense Model (CADM)
• The Effects of CF Attacks
• The Effects of CF Defenses
• Conclusion
5. Patrizia Catellani
Counterfactual Communication
“If you had taken a firm stance on the situation of the
national budget, things would be better now.”
"If the opposition had accepted our proposal, things would have
been better.”
6. Patrizia Catellani
Information
Relation
Counterfactual Attack/Defense Model
(CADM)
Counterfactual
Attack/Defense
Social
Judgment
Perception
of the Event
Perception
of the Message
Social norms
Specific
expectations
Individual
differences
Social norms
Specific
expectations
Individual
differences
7. Patrizia Catellani
CADM
Counterfactual Persuasion
HP -> Counterfactual attacks/defenses can be
more persuasive than factual attacks/defenses.
Why?
• Communication is persuasive when it balances
informativeness and the risk of reactance.
• A way to find this balance is the use of subtle and indirect
communication, in order to hide its persuasive intent.
• Counterfactual communication is a type of subtle
communication strategy. As such, it can be more effective
than factual communication.
8. Patrizia Catellani
Are attacks effective?
• Negativity effect
People devote more attention to negative than
to positive information regarding a target
(Meffert et al. 2006).
• Backlash effect
Attacks, however, are often not effective. They
can have more negative consequences on the
source than on their target (Carraro, Gawronski, &
Castelli, 2010).
9. Patrizia Catellani
A Counterfactual Attack…
HP -> … reduces the backlash effect
The attacking source is perceived as less biased
and more correct
HP -> … is more effective than a factual attack
The attacked target gets a worse evaluation
10. Patrizia Catellani
The Effects of Factual
vs. Counterfactual Attacks
Can counterfactual attacks be more effective than
factual attacks?
“You disregarded your previous commitment about the issue of taxes.”
“If you had honored your previous commitment about the issue of taxes, things
would be better now.”
15. Patrizia Catellani
A Counterfactual Attack…
HP -> … is more effective when it is focused
on a stereotypically relevant personality
dimension
The message is perceived as more convincing
The attacked target is perceived as more
responsible and gets a worse evaluation
17. Patrizia Catellani
The Four Dimensions
in Different Professional Categories
Bertolotti & Catellani, submitted
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Politician Businessman Magistrate Psychologist Professor
Desirability
Morality
Leadership
Competence
Sociability
18. Patrizia Catellani
Journalist: “If you had told the truth on the
financial situation of your party, things would be
better now. If you had honored your previous
commitment to your voters, your party would be
in a better condition now. If you had refused
personal advantages in return for your vote on a
law proposal, today we would be in a better
situation.”
Attack Examples
“If you had hold out against the pressure of your
political allies on your policies, things would be
better now. If you had taken certain and firm
stances during the electoral campaign, your party
would be in a better condition now. If you had
shown strength in the debate with your political
rivals, today we would be in a better situation.”
“If you had decided to compete on emerging
markets, things would be better now. If you had
decided promptly to compete with other
companies, your company would be in a better
condition now. If you had held out against the
pressure of your shareholders on marketing
strategies, today we would be in a better situation
now. ”
Journalist: “If you had shown transparency on
the financial situation of your company, things
would be better now. If you had respected
financial norms to get control of a limited
company, your company would be in a better
condition now. If you had told the truth on the
fiscal controversies of your company, today we
would be in a better situation.”
Businessman Politician
MoralityLeadership
Bertolotti & Catellani, submitted
22. Patrizia Catellani
Perception of the Event
Perception of the Message
Counterfactual Attack/Defense Model
(CADM) - Attack
Counterfactual
Attack
«If only you…»
Social Judgment
Evaluation of the
attacked target
• Responsibility attributed to the target
• Perceived bias of the source
• Convincingness of the message
Specific
expectations
regarding the
attack source
Social norm
regarding the
attacked target
23. Patrizia Catellani
Four Types of Defenses
Responsibility for the outcome
Yes No
Negativityoftheoutcome
Yes
Concession Excuse
Acknowledging both the
responsibility and the negativity of
the outcome
Acknowledging the negativity,
but not the responsibility for the
outcome
No
Justification Denial
Acknowledging the responsibility,
but not the negativity of the
outcome
Denying both the responsibility
and the negativity of the
outcome
24. Patrizia Catellani
Responsibility for the outcome
Yes No
Negativityoftheoutcome
Yes
Concession Excuse
No
Justification Denial
I didn’t state my position firmly
enough within the coalition.
I did a fair enough job in stating
my position within the coalition.
The opposition didn't revise its
ideological stance.
Counterfactual Defenses
If I had insisted on our proposal,
things would have been better.
(Self-focused, upward CF)
If the opposition had accepted
our proposal, things would have
been better.
(Other-focused, upward CF)
If I had hesitated on our
proposal, things would have
been worse.
(Self-focused, downward CF)
My conduct in this situation
was irreprehensible.
25. Patrizia Catellani
Responsibility for the outcome
Yes No
Negativityoftheoutcome
Yes
Concession Excuse
No
If I had insisted on our proposal,
things would have been better.
(Self-focused, upward CF)
If the opposition had accepted
our proposal, things would have
been better.
(Other-focused, upward CF)
Concession vs Excuse
29. Patrizia Catellani
**
Defendant Evaluation after Manipulation of the
Defendant’s Trustworthiness
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Self Other
Bertolotti & Catellani, in preparation
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Self Other
Defense Target Defense Target
Trustworthy
Defendant
Untrustworthy
Defendant
Defense
Factual
Counterfactual
30. Patrizia Catellani
Bertolotti & Catellani, in preparation
Defense Deceptiveness as a function
of Recipient Sophistication
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
Other
Self
-1 SD
Recipient Sophistication
+1 SD
Target
31. Patrizia Catellani
Bertolotti & Catellani, in preparation
Defendant Future Intention as a
function of Recipient Sophistication
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Other
Self
-1 SD
Recipient Sophistication
+1 SD
Target
32. Patrizia Catellani
Perception of the Event
Perception of the Message
Counterfactual Attack/Defense Model
(CADM) - Defense
Counterfactual
Defense
«If only I…»
Social Judgment
Evaluation of the
defendant
• Responsibility attributed to
the defendant
• Defense deceptiveness
• Defendant future intention
Specific expectations
on the defendant
Individual difference
in sophistication
33. Patrizia Catellani
So what?
o Counterfactual attacks and defences are more
effective than factual attacks and defenses.
o Their persuasiveness is rooted on:
• The way the event is reconstructed
• The way the message source and the message itself are
perceived
o Individual differences (e.g., recipients’ sophistication)
moderate the effects of counterfactual
attacks/defenses. Future research should investigate
why.
“a psychological state in which perceivers actively weigh the possibility that a target’s behavior is genuine against the possibility that it is contrived” (Hilton, Fein, & Miller, 1993)
“a psychological state in which perceivers actively weigh the possibility that a target’s behavior is genuine against the possibility that it is contrived” (Hilton, Fein, & Miller, 1993)
We measured the attribution of a set of traits pertaining to four dimensions (morality, leadership, competence and sociability) to generic members of five different professional categories: politicians, businessmen, magistrates, psychologists and university professors. We then asked participants to indicate how desirable were the same dimensions for each kind of professional
Results showed that usually the most typical dimension, that is the dimension that defines the members of a certain professional category, is also the most desirable ones: for instance, businessmen are seen as typically very resolute, dynamic, strong-minded (high leadership),and these are the same traits that are considered most desirable in a businnesman. Similarly, judges are seen as typically very honest, reliable and sincere, and morality is their more desirable dimension. Psychologists are seen as warm, helpful, etc, and sociability is the most desired dimension for them.
When we analysed the case of politicians, however, we found that although politicians are seen as the least moral category among those we analysed, morality is a highly desirable dimension for them. Therefore, compared to other professionals, their weakest dimension is the most valued one.
Finally, we analysed the effects of different kinds of attacks on the evaluation of the attack itself and of the journalist making the attack.
In this case, we found that counterfactual attacks were generally better than factual ones, an effect which can be attributed to their indirect style rather than their specific content (leadership/morality) or their target (politician/businessman).
Similarly, responsibility for the negative events described in the interview scenario is attributed more strongly to the politician after a counterfactual attack against morality, and to the businessman after a counterfactual attack against leadership.
Therefore, the responsibility for a negative outcome is attributed to a greater extent to a target when he/she is presented as deviating from the standard that defines the acceptable behaviour for his/her category.
We can see that the evaluation of the target, either the politician or the businessman, is more strongly affected by counterfactual attacks on the respective most relevant dimension: morality for the politician and leadership for the businnessman.
So a counterfactual attack against the morality of the politician is more effective than a factual attack (and also than attacks against the politician's leadership).
This was not the case for the businessman: a counterfactual attack against morality was not more effective than a factual one, whereas a counterfactual attack against leadership was more effective than the factual one.
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Nel grafico emerge in modo evidente la differente efficacia dell’attacco controfattuale sul giudizio sul politico e sull’imprenditore sul tratto desiderabile di ciascuno. L’attacco controfattuale alla moralità del politico è più efficace nel minare il giudizio sul politico stesso (M = 1,97) rispetto a quello fattuale (M = 3,53), perché è indiretto, ripara da effetti backlash verso colui che attacca e rende maggiormente saliente la norma morale violata dal politico (essere affidabile, leale, onesto)
Invece l’attacco fattuale alla leadership del politico (M = 3,24) sembra essere leggermente più efficace di quello controfattuale (M = 3,53).
L’attacco controfattuale alla leadership dell’imprenditore (M = 2,65) è più efficace di quello fattuale (M = 3,49) nell’influenzare il giudizio sull’imprenditore – anche in questo caso, l’attacco implicito sortisce più effetto negativo sulla dimensione più desiderabile per quella determinata categoria sociale perché rende rilevante lo standard di comportamento normativo violato (non essere morale ma essere forte).
Inoltre, l’attacco controfattuale alla moralità (M = 3,57) risulta essere maggiormente efficace nell’influire sul giudizio sull’imprenditore rispetto a quello fattuale (M = 3,73).
CHIARIRE GUARDANDO I DATI SE I MODERATORI MODERANO LA PARTE DI INFORMAZIONE O QUELLA DI RELAZIONE O ENTRAMBE
Schema ripreso da libro Cortina (vedi anche diapo successiva); prima solo le due dimensioni e le 4 categorie; poi si aggiunge in un altro colore l’esempio di controfattuale
CHIARIRE GUARDANDO I DATI SE I MODERATORI MODERANO LA PARTE DI INFORMAZIONE O QUELLA DI RELAZIONE O ENTRAMBE