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Politique monétaire de la BCE

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www.ecb.europa.eu ©
International Economic Policy Lecture
University of Würzburg, 21 November 2023
Monetary policy
in times of
stubborn inflation
Isabel Schnabel
Member of the Executive Board
of the European Central Bank
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu©
Economic growth and inflation in the euro area since the start of the pandemic
2
Sources: Eurostat, ECB and Eurosystem.
Latest observation: Q3 2023 for quarterly data, October 2023 for monthly data (diamond).
Real GDP
(index: Q4 2019 = 100)
Inflation
(annual percentage changes, quarterly data)
Sources: Eurostat, ECB and Eurosystem.
Latest observation: Q3 2023 for realised GDP (diamond).
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2019 2020 2021 2022
September 2023 MPE
Realised HICP
October 2023
March 2020 MPE
2.9
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
103
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
September 23 ECB staff projections
Realised GDP
March 2020 ECB staff projections
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu©
3
ECB has taken determined policy action to tackle unprecedented inflation surge
Monetary policy assets
(€ billion)
ECB key interest rates
(%)
Source: ECB.
Latest observation: November 2023.
Source: ECB.
Notes: Public APP is PSPP, Private APP is CBPP3, ABSPP and CSPP.
Latest observation: November 2023.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
DFR MRO MLF
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
MRO LTRO TLTRO Private APP Public APP PEPP
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu©
Inflation has declined on the back of large base effects related to energy and food
4
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
Latest observation: October 2023.
HICP inflation and contributions
(annual percentage changes and percentage point contribution)
Sources: Bloomberg and ECB calculations.
Latest observation: 16 November 2023.
Crude oil and natural gas prices
(oil: EUR/barrel, gas: EUR/MWh)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Jan-21 Oct-21 Jul-22 Apr-23
Brent oil spot TTF gas spot (rhs)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23
Energy Food NEIG
Services HICP
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu©
Disinflation process is projected to slow with inflation moving towards 2% by end-2025
5
HICP inflation projections
(annual percentage changes)
Source: September 2023 MPE and Eurostat.
Notes: The ranges shown around the central projections are based on past projection errors, after adjustment for outliers. The bands, from darkest to lightest, depict the 30%, 60% and 90% probabilities
that the outcome will fall within the respective intervals. For more information, see Box 6 of the March 2023 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area.
Latest observation: October 2023 for monthly data (diamond).
HICP excluding energy and food inflation
projections
(annual percentage changes)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
September 2023 ECB staff projections
October 2023
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
September 2023 ECB staff projections
October 2023
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
September 2023 MPE September 2023 MPE
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu©
Labour hoarding weakens monetary transmission as labour shortages persist
6
Unemployment rate and employment
(lhs: thousands of persons; rhs: percentage of the labour force)
Source: ECB calculations based on Eurostat data.
Notes: The monthly employment data have been computed manually as
the difference between labour force and unemployment.
Latest observation: September 2023.
Labour as a factor limiting production
(percentage of firms)
Source: European Commission.
Latest observation: October 2023.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023
Construction Services Industry
Oct-2023
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
130000
135000
140000
145000
150000
155000
160000
165000
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Employment (lhs)
Unemployment rate (rhs)
Sep-23

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ecb.sp231121_1~8df317dc17.en.pdf

  • 1. www.ecb.europa.eu © International Economic Policy Lecture University of Würzburg, 21 November 2023 Monetary policy in times of stubborn inflation Isabel Schnabel Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
  • 2. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© Economic growth and inflation in the euro area since the start of the pandemic 2 Sources: Eurostat, ECB and Eurosystem. Latest observation: Q3 2023 for quarterly data, October 2023 for monthly data (diamond). Real GDP (index: Q4 2019 = 100) Inflation (annual percentage changes, quarterly data) Sources: Eurostat, ECB and Eurosystem. Latest observation: Q3 2023 for realised GDP (diamond). -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2019 2020 2021 2022 September 2023 MPE Realised HICP October 2023 March 2020 MPE 2.9 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 103 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 September 23 ECB staff projections Realised GDP March 2020 ECB staff projections
  • 3. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© 3 ECB has taken determined policy action to tackle unprecedented inflation surge Monetary policy assets (€ billion) ECB key interest rates (%) Source: ECB. Latest observation: November 2023. Source: ECB. Notes: Public APP is PSPP, Private APP is CBPP3, ABSPP and CSPP. Latest observation: November 2023. -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 DFR MRO MLF 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 MRO LTRO TLTRO Private APP Public APP PEPP
  • 4. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© Inflation has declined on the back of large base effects related to energy and food 4 Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Latest observation: October 2023. HICP inflation and contributions (annual percentage changes and percentage point contribution) Sources: Bloomberg and ECB calculations. Latest observation: 16 November 2023. Crude oil and natural gas prices (oil: EUR/barrel, gas: EUR/MWh) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 Jan-21 Oct-21 Jul-22 Apr-23 Brent oil spot TTF gas spot (rhs) -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Energy Food NEIG Services HICP
  • 5. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© Disinflation process is projected to slow with inflation moving towards 2% by end-2025 5 HICP inflation projections (annual percentage changes) Source: September 2023 MPE and Eurostat. Notes: The ranges shown around the central projections are based on past projection errors, after adjustment for outliers. The bands, from darkest to lightest, depict the 30%, 60% and 90% probabilities that the outcome will fall within the respective intervals. For more information, see Box 6 of the March 2023 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. Latest observation: October 2023 for monthly data (diamond). HICP excluding energy and food inflation projections (annual percentage changes) -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 September 2023 ECB staff projections October 2023 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 September 2023 ECB staff projections October 2023 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 September 2023 MPE September 2023 MPE
  • 6. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© Labour hoarding weakens monetary transmission as labour shortages persist 6 Unemployment rate and employment (lhs: thousands of persons; rhs: percentage of the labour force) Source: ECB calculations based on Eurostat data. Notes: The monthly employment data have been computed manually as the difference between labour force and unemployment. Latest observation: September 2023. Labour as a factor limiting production (percentage of firms) Source: European Commission. Latest observation: October 2023. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 Construction Services Industry Oct-2023 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 130000 135000 140000 145000 150000 155000 160000 165000 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Employment (lhs) Unemployment rate (rhs) Sep-23
  • 7. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© Strong wage growth and falling productivity put upward pressure on unit labour costs 7 Wage trackers (annual percentage change) Sources: Calculated based on micro data on wage agreements provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Banco de España, the Dutch employer association (AWVN), Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Bank of Greece, Banca d ’Italia and Banque de France. Notes: Indicator of latest wage agreements shows the wage growth implied by agreements reached in a quarter for 12 months ahead. Indeed tracker measures wage growth in online job ads, computed by the Central Bank of Ireland. Latest observations: October 2023 for Indeed Wage Tracker; Q3 2023 for indicators of latest agreements and ECB negotiated wages. Labour productivity per hour (index 2019 Q4 = 100) Sources: ECB calculation based on Eurostat data. Notes: The dashed line represents the historical average from January 2000 to December 2019. Latest observation: 2023 Q2. 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 Latest agreements Latest agreements including one-offs Indeed wage tracker ECB negotiated wages
  • 8. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© 8 Firms often raised prices above cost increases but are more reluctant to lower them Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Notes: Unit taxes refer to unit net indirect taxes defined as indirect taxes minus subsidies. Latest observation: 2023 Q2. Contributions to GDP deflator (annual percentage changes and percentage change contributions) Source: European Commission (including Eurostat) and ECB calculations. Notes: Data are non-seasonally adjusted. Latest observation: October 2023. Selling price expectations (share of firms expecting lower/higher selling prices) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2022 2023 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2022 2023 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2022 2023 Lower Higher Manufacturing Retail Services -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Unit taxes Unit profits Unit labour costs GDP deflator
  • 9. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© Share of services and non-energy goods with very high inflation rates remains large 9 Services Non-energy industrial goods Source: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Notes: Based on 39 items for Services and 33 items for Non-energy industrial goods; the weight of items sums up the weight of items in the HICP basket in the different categories. Latest observation: October 2023. Weighted distribution of price changes (%) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Above 5.0% Between 3.0% and 5.0% Between 2.0% and 3.0% Below 2.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Above 5.0% Between 3.0% and 5.0% Between 2.0% and 3.0% Below 2.0%
  • 10. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© 10 Strong transmission of monetary policy to funding costs and bank lending Composite cost of borrowing (percentages per annum) Sources: ECB (MIR) and ECB calculations. Notes: The indicator for the total cost of bank borrowing for firms is calculated by aggregating short-term and long-term rates using a 24-month moving average of new business volumes. Latest observation: September 2023. Bank loans to firms and households (monthly flow in EUR bn) Sources: ECB (BSI). Notes: Loans to households and firms are adjusted for sales and securitisation. Loans to firms are also adjusted for cash pooling. Latest observation: September 2023. 0 2 4 6 8 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 Firms Households for house purchase -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan-22 Jun-22 Nov-22 Apr-23 Sep-23 Loans to firms Loans to households
  • 11. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© Limited pass-through to deposit rates and moderate decline in house prices so far 11 Sources: Europace, Eurostat, Immobiliare.it, Indomio.es, Meilleursagents.com, Statistics Netherlands. Notes: RRE stands for Residential Real Estate. Last EA observation from Eurostat is for Q2 2023, so several countries with more timely data available are added. For IT and ES an average listing price index is reported. For all other countries the index reported is a hedonic price index based on transaction prices. Latest observation: September 2023 for DE and NL, August 2023 for ES, FR and IT, Q2 2023 for EA. House prices (Monthly RRE price indices – December 2019 = 100) Sources: Eurostat, ECB (MIR, FM) and ECB calculations. Notes: Time deposits are those of maturity of up to 2 years. Pre-pandemic average of savings ratio is calculated over the period 1999 Q1-2019 Q4. Last observations: October 2023 for the ECB policy rate, September 2023 for deposit rates, 2023 Q2 for savings ratio. Household deposit rate pass-through and savings ratio (lhs: percentage per annum: rhs: percentage share of nominal income) 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1 Savings ratio Pre-pandemic average -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Jan-22 Aug-22 Mar-23 Oct-23 ECB policy rate Time deposits Overnight deposits
  • 12. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© Sectoral shares in euro area gross value added (percentages) Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Notes: The market services sector includes, among others, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, accommodation and food services, information and communication, and financial and real estate services. The capital-intensive sector includes, among others, mining, manufacturing, energy and water supply, and construction. Greater share of services in value added dampens monetary policy transmission 12 Survey: Impact of changes in financing conditions on firms’ activity (percentage of firms) Sources: ECB Corporate Telephone Survey. Notes: The chart shows the answers to the question “How do financing conditions (cost and availability of funding) since mid-2022 affect business activity over past 12 months and in the next 12 months?”. Latest observations: October 2023. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% All IndustryServices Negative impact No impact Positive impact Past 12 months All Industry Services More impact Similar impact Less impact Next 12 months 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 Market services Capital-intensive (rhs)
  • 13. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© 13 Energy shock threatens to leave permanent scars in the euro area Industrial production: manufacturing sector (index: December 2019 = 100) Sources: Eurostat, Trade Data Monitor and ECB staff calculations. Notes: Data are seasonally-adjusted. Industrial production indices for individual sectors are aggregated with value-added weights. Low (high) energy-intensity sectors are defined as those with an energy intensity lower (higher) than that of the median sector. For more details, see Chiacchio, De Santis, Gunnella and Lebastard (2023). Latest observation: September 2023. Real business investment (index: 2019 Q4 = 100) Source: ECB calculation based on Eurostat data. Notes: Pre-pandemic trend estimated on the basis of quarterly data between 2013 Q1 and 2019 Q4. Real investment adjusted for the statistical volatility of intangible investment in Ireland. Latest observation: 2023 Q2. 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Real investment Pre-pandemic trend 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total High energy-intensive Low energy-intensive
  • 14. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© 14 Euro area economy could be hit by new supply-side shocks in future Oil prices and futures curve (USD per barrel) Sources: Refinitiv and ECB staff calculations. Notes: The percentiles are computed from option-implied densities. Latest observation: 17/11/2023. Gas prices and futures curve (EUR per MWh) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Futures Spot 25th and 75th percentile 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Futures Spot 25th and 75th percentile Sources: Refinitiv, Morningstar and ECB staff calculations. Notes: The percentiles are computed from option-implied densities. The percentiles calculated as of 16/10/2023. Latest observation: 17/11/2023
  • 15. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Energy Food NEIG Services HICP Energy explains higher inflation momentum, while El Niño effects on food may still come 15 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months Global food price effects of a one-degree temperature rise during El Niño (percent) Sources: Haver, NOAA, Bloomberg and ECB calculations. Notes: Price reaction shows impact of a 1°C increase in temperature during El Niño controlling for fertiliser and oil prices and global industrial activity with 68% confidence intervals. Latest observation: May 2023 (monthly sample starting in January 1960). Momentum of HICP and main components (annualised 3m-on-3m percentage changes, percentage points contributions) Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Latest observation: October 2023.
  • 16. Rubric www.ecb.europa.eu© 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 ≤-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ≥11 Inflation expectations one year ahead, median Inflation expectations three years ahead, median 16 Longer-term inflation expectations continue to signal some upside risks SPF: Cross-sectional distribution of longer-term inflation point forecasts (percent) Sources: ECB SPF Latest observation: 2023Q4. Sources: ECB CES and ECB calculations Latest observation: September 2023. 0 10 20 30 40 50 ≤1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 ≥2.5 2003-2020 2021Q1-2023Q3 2023Q4 CES: Cross-sectional distribution of inflation point forecasts (1 to 3 years) (percent)
  • 17. www.ecb.europa.eu © Thank you very much for your attention! 17