Is There a Future forNuclear Power After Fukushima?Alexander GlaserWoodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affai...
Nuclear Power: Years of Boredom             Interrupted by Moments of Sheer Terror?                                       ...
What is Nuclear Power?
Nuclear Fission                                    (discovered by L. Meitner, O. Hahn, F. Strassmann, 1938)               ...
The 1939 Einstein Letter to President Roosevelt            ... It may become possible to set up a            nuclear chain...
Two Isotopes in Natural Uranium                                  (Only about 0.7% is U-235, virtually all the rest is U-23...
Plutonium ProductionScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012   7
It Takes Only a Few Kilograms of         Fissile Material to Make a Nuclear Weapon                                   Size ...
The First Nuclear Reactors Were Used                To Make Plutonium for Weapons                                         ...
Nuclear-Powered Submarines Came Next                                            USS Nautilus (SSN-571), launched in 1954, ...
The First Civilian Power Reactor, 1957                                          Shippingport Atomic Power Station, Pennsyl...
Lewis Strauss, 1954/1955                                                                             “ It is not too much ...
Electricity for 800,000 U.S. Households       200 tons of uranium have to be mined         to produce 20 tons of nuclear f...
Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, 2011(444 minus 4 reactors in 30 countries, providing about 14% of global electricity;...
Nuclear Power: Years of Boredom             Interrupted by Moments of Sheer Terror?                                       ...
The March 2011 Fukushima Accidents             (Quick Review)
Nuclear Power Plants in Japan, 2011Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012   17
6                5            1        2    34                Fukushima-Daiichi Plant                        Source: TEPCO...
Explosions of Secondary Containment              Buildings of Units 1 and 3        Unit 1, March 12, 2011, 3:36 p.m.      ...
March 14, 2011 - DigitalGlobe                                20
The Future of Nuclear Power?
Compared to Other Sources of Energy:                                What Factors Tend to Put                             N...
Compared to Other Sources of Energy:                              What Factors Tend to Put                          Nuclea...
Challenges After Fukushima        (Old and New)
What To Do With the Existing Fleet?
Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, 2011(444 minus 4 reactors in 30 countries, providing about 14% of global electricity;...
The Existing Fleet of Power Reactors is Aging        United States                                               40       ...
23 Operating Reactors in the United States              Are of the Fukushima-Type                        (Boiling Water Re...
Ginna                                                                                 Seabrook                            ...
Ginna                                                                                   Seabrook                          ...
What About Advanced Reactor Designs?
Advanced Reactors Promise Enhanced Safety                 Double-walled containment                                       ...
Advanced Reactors Are Also Expensive                              Olkiluoto 3 (Finland, Areva): Four years behind schedule...
Could Small Nuclear Reactors Play a Role?                                    Some concepts are based on proven reactor tec...
Could Small Nuclear Reactors Play a Role?                                    Some concepts are based on proven reactor tec...
What Scale of a Nuclear Expansion   Would Make a Difference?
Global Annual CO2(eq) Emissions                                                                                           ...
Computer Models Can be Used              to Examine Possible Energy Futures                   and understand the impact of...
Global CO2 Emissions                                                       under the GCAM3 Reference Scenario             ...
Global CO2 Emissions                                          under the GCAM3 Reference and Policy Scenarios              ...
Global Mean Temperature Change                                          under the GCAM3 Reference and Policy Scenarios    ...
Global Installed Nuclear Capacity                        under the GCAM3 Reference and Policy Scenarios (pre-Fukushima)   ...
Achieving These Targets Would Require                            Unprecedented Construction Rates                         ...
If an early large-scale global buildup of nuclear power is unrealistic:   What Should Be Done Instead?
Strengthening The BarriersAgainst Military Use of Nuclear Power
Enriched Uranium                                                                             (visually)                   ...
Global Uranium Enrichment Capacities, 2010    (14 operational plants in 10 countries, not including 3+ military plants)   ...
Why Centrifuges Are Different                     Zippe Centrifuge, 1959                                 Characteristics o...
Iran’s Second Enrichment Site, near Qom                        (Fordow Plant, revealed in September 2009 at 34.885 N, 50.9...
Newcomer CountriesAccording to the IAEA, 60+ countries were considering nuclear programs in 2010                          ...
Global Uranium Enrichment Capacities, 2010  (14 operational plants in 10 countries, not including two military plants)    ...
Global Uranium Enrichment Capacities, 2060  Based on the requirements for GCAM3 Policy Scenario in 14 World Regions       ...
Concluding Remarks                   The Fukushima accidents have reminded us that we continue to rely on                 ...
Glaser: Nuclear Power after Fukushima. A primer on Nuclear Power.
Glaser: Nuclear Power after Fukushima. A primer on Nuclear Power.
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Glaser: Nuclear Power after Fukushima. A primer on Nuclear Power.

  1. 1. Is There a Future forNuclear Power After Fukushima?Alexander GlaserWoodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs andDepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace EngineeringPrinceton UniversityPrinceton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 Revision 6
  2. 2. Nuclear Power: Years of Boredom Interrupted by Moments of Sheer Terror? Fukushima Chernobyl Three Mile Island Low estimate based on the age of reactors operating today, IAEA Power Reactor Information System (actual value for 2010 closer to 14,000 reactor years)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 2
  3. 3. What is Nuclear Power?
  4. 4. Nuclear Fission (discovered by L. Meitner, O. Hahn, F. Strassmann, 1938) Uranium-235 (0.7% in natural uranium, rest is U-238) Fission fragments are positively charged and repel each otherScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 4
  5. 5. The 1939 Einstein Letter to President Roosevelt ... It may become possible to set up a nuclear chain reaction in a large mass of uranium, by which vast amounts of power ... would be generated. Now it appears almost certain that this could be achieved in the immediate future. This new phenomenon would also lead to the construction of bombs, ...Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 5
  6. 6. Two Isotopes in Natural Uranium (Only about 0.7% is U-235, virtually all the rest is U-238) U-235Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 6
  7. 7. Plutonium ProductionScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 7
  8. 8. It Takes Only a Few Kilograms of Fissile Material to Make a Nuclear Weapon Size of the plutonium sphere used in the Nagasaki Bomb (about 6 kg of plutonium)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 8
  9. 9. The First Nuclear Reactors Were Used To Make Plutonium for Weapons Hanford B Reactor, 1944 near Richland, WA Chicago Pile-1 (CP-1), December 2, 1942Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 9
  10. 10. Nuclear-Powered Submarines Came Next USS Nautilus (SSN-571), launched in 1954, here entering New York Harbor, 1958Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 10
  11. 11. The First Civilian Power Reactor, 1957 Shippingport Atomic Power Station, Pennsylvania (Source: LIFE Magazine/Google)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 11
  12. 12. Lewis Strauss, 1954/1955 “ It is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter; will know of great periodic regional famines in the world only as matters of history; will travel effortlessly over the seas and under them and through the air with a minimum of danger and at great speed, and will experience a lifespan far longer than ours, as disease yields and man comes to understand what causes him to age. This is the forecast of an age of peace.” Lewis L. Strauss quoted in the New York Times, August 7, 1955 (NYT, 9/17/1954)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 12
  13. 13. Electricity for 800,000 U.S. Households 200 tons of uranium have to be mined to produce 20 tons of nuclear fuel (only 1 ton is ultimately fissioned) 3,000,000 tons of coal (15,000x more) Shown is annual fuel demand for 1000 MWe plant; average U.S. household consumption: 1.2 kW or about 30 kWh per dayScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 13
  14. 14. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, 2011(444 minus 4 reactors in 30 countries, providing about 14% of global electricity; still counting 17 reactors in Germany) 32 18 164 Europe 104 50–4 14 3 21 2 20 6 2 2 2 More than 10 GWe installed Less than 10 GWe installed Last update: May 27, 2011
  15. 15. Nuclear Power: Years of Boredom Interrupted by Moments of Sheer Terror? Fukushima Chernobyl Three Mile Island Low estimate based on the age of reactors operating today, IAEA Power Reactor Information System (actual value for 2010 closer to 14,000 reactor years)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 15
  16. 16. The March 2011 Fukushima Accidents (Quick Review)
  17. 17. Nuclear Power Plants in Japan, 2011Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 17
  18. 18. 6 5 1 2 34 Fukushima-Daiichi Plant Source: TEPCO, undated
  19. 19. Explosions of Secondary Containment Buildings of Units 1 and 3 Unit 1, March 12, 2011, 3:36 p.m. Unit 3, March 14, 2011, 11:01 a.m.Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 19
  20. 20. March 14, 2011 - DigitalGlobe 20
  21. 21. The Future of Nuclear Power?
  22. 22. Compared to Other Sources of Energy: What Factors Tend to Put Nuclear Power at an Advantage? Time-tested Small life-cycle CO2 Emissions In principle: scalable () few “physical” constraints) In principle: inexhaustible () few resource constraints) High availability () good for baseload electricity generation) Centralized production () adequate for today’s electric grid) Attractive if projections for future electricity demand are highScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 22
  23. 23. Compared to Other Sources of Energy: What Factors Tend to Put Nuclear Power at a Disadvantage? Safety concerns () risk of catastrophic accidents) Requirement for disposal of radioactive nuclear waste Weapons connection () nuclear proliferation) Possibility of radiological and nuclear terrorism Public opinion Can go either way: Economics Can go either way: Energy security () reliable access to fuel resources)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 23
  24. 24. Challenges After Fukushima (Old and New)
  25. 25. What To Do With the Existing Fleet?
  26. 26. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, 2011(444 minus 4 reactors in 30 countries, providing about 14% of global electricity; still counting 17 reactors in Germany) 32 18 164 Europe 104 50–4 14 3 21 2 20 6 2 2 2 More than 10 GWe installed Less than 10 GWe installed Last update: May 27, 2011
  27. 27. The Existing Fleet of Power Reactors is Aging United States 40 64 1/1 France 58 1 Japan 7 43 4/2 Russia 9 23 11 South Korea 21 5 India 3 17 5 United Kingdom 4 15 1 Canada 2/16 Germany 1/9/7 Ukraine 15 1/2 China 14 27 Sweden 4 6 Operating, nearing 40-year life (78) Spain 1/7 Operating, first criticality after 1975 (355) Belgium 1/6 Under construction (64) Taiwan 6/2 Czech Republic 6 Destroyed in accidents (6) Switzerland 3/2 Slovak Republic 4 2 Shutdown in response to accident (7) Finland 4 1 4 Source: IAEA Power Reactor Information System Hungary May 27, 2011 ALL OTHERS 3 15 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 27
  28. 28. 23 Operating Reactors in the United States Are of the Fukushima-Type (Boiling Water Reactors with MK-I Containment, built in the 1960s) Browns Ferry Unit I near Athens, AL, under constructionScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 28
  29. 29. Ginna Seabrook Vermont Yankee Pilgrim Millstone 2 & 3 Indian Point 2 & 3 Susquehanna 1 & 2 Limerick 1 & 2 Three Mile Island 1 Oyster Creek Peach Bottom 2 & 3 Hope Creek and Salem 1 & 2 Calvert Cliffs 1 & 2North Anna 1 & 2 Surry 1 & 2 100 miles
  30. 30. Ginna Seabrook Vermont Yankee Pilgrim You are here Millstone 2 & 3 Indian Point 2 & 3 Susquehanna 1 & 2 10-mile Limerick 1 & 2 emergency planning zone Three Mile Island 1 Oyster Creek Peach Bottom 2 & 3 Hope Creek and Salem 1 & 2 Calvert Cliffs 1 & 2 Recommendation for U.S. citizens within 50 miles of Fukushima to evacuate the areaNorth Anna 1 & 2 or take shelter indoors if safe evacuation is not practical (http://japan.usembassy.gov) Surry 1 & 2 100 miles
  31. 31. What About Advanced Reactor Designs?
  32. 32. Advanced Reactors Promise Enhanced Safety Double-walled containment Four separate emergency core cooling systems (with independent and geographically separated trains) Corium spreading area (“core catcher”) Shown: Areva EPR Estimated core damage frequency: 6 x 10-7 per yearScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 32
  33. 33. Advanced Reactors Are Also Expensive Olkiluoto 3 (Finland, Areva): Four years behind schedule (2013 vs 2009) Turnkey agreement ($4.3 billion), currently estimated loss for Areva: $3.8 billion Source: Francois de Beaupuy, “Areva’s Overruns at Finnish Nuclear Plant Approach Initial Cost,” Bloomberg Businessweek, June 24, 2010Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 33
  34. 34. Could Small Nuclear Reactors Play a Role? Some concepts are based on proven reactor technology Babock & Wilcox mPower Concept • Light-water cooled • 125-750 MWe • Underground construction • 60-year spent fuel storage onsite • Quasi-standard LWR fuel Source: www.babcock.com/products/modular_nuclear/Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 34
  35. 35. Could Small Nuclear Reactors Play a Role? Some concepts are based on proven reactor technology FlexBlue DCNS (formerly Direction des Constructions Navales, DCN) jointly with Areva, CEA, and EDF Length: about 100 m Diameter: 12–15 m Power: 50–250 MWe Siting: Seafloor mooring at a depth of 60 to 100 m a few km off coast http://en.dcnsgroup.com/energie/civil-nuclear-engineering/flexblue/Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 35
  36. 36. What Scale of a Nuclear Expansion Would Make a Difference?
  37. 37. Global Annual CO2(eq) Emissions Likelihood of not exceeding 2 degrees Celsius less than 50% Likelihood of not exceeding 2 degrees Celsius greater than 80% Courtesy: Michael Oppenheimer (Princeton, EDF)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 37
  38. 38. Computer Models Can be Used to Examine Possible Energy Futures and understand the impact of technologies and policies related to GHG emissions Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) www.globalchange.umd.edu/models/gcam Developed and maintained by the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) at University of Maryland (UMD) and U.S. DOE Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Numerous energy supply technologies Sixteen types of GHG emissions, global coverage with 14 regions But always remember: GIGO !Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 38
  39. 39. Global CO2 Emissions under the GCAM3 Reference Scenario GCAM3 Reference Scenario GCAM3 Policy ScenarioScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 39
  40. 40. Global CO2 Emissions under the GCAM3 Reference and Policy Scenarios GCAM3 Reference Scenario GCAM3 Policy Scenario (shown GCAM3 Policy Scenario assumes escalating price of carbon beginning with $20/tC in 2020)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 40
  41. 41. Global Mean Temperature Change under the GCAM3 Reference and Policy Scenarios GCAM3 Reference Scenario GCAM3 Policy ScenarioScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 41
  42. 42. Global Installed Nuclear Capacity under the GCAM3 Reference and Policy Scenarios (pre-Fukushima) GCAM3 Policy Scenario 2008 Projections of the International Atomic Energy Agency for 2030 (low and high) GCAM3 Reference Scenario Residual Capacity of Existing Fleet (without life extensions) Global nuclear electricity under Policy Scenario: 1910 GWe in 2060 (23% of total) and 5190 GWe in 2095 (34% of total)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 42
  43. 43. Achieving These Targets Would Require Unprecedented Construction Rates 100 GCAM3 Reference Scenario GCAM 3 Policy Scenario peaks at 170 GW added in the year 2070 415 GW Total nuclear capacity added annually [GW/yr] in 5 years 372 GW in 5 years 75 247 GW in 5 years 50 208 GW 211 GW 201 GW in 5 years in 5 years in 5 years Historic maximum 126 GW (32 GW added in 1984) in 5 years 25 94 GW in 5 years 28 GW 11 GW in 5 years in 5 years 0 2010–2015 2015–2020 2020–2025 2025–2030 2030–2035 2035–2040 2040–2045 2045–2050 2050–2055 2055–2060 This is already next to impossibleScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 43
  44. 44. If an early large-scale global buildup of nuclear power is unrealistic: What Should Be Done Instead?
  45. 45. Strengthening The BarriersAgainst Military Use of Nuclear Power
  46. 46. Enriched Uranium (visually) HEU (weapon-usable) Natural uranium Low-enriched uranium Highly enriched uranium Weapon-grade uranium 0.7% U-235 typically 3-5%, 20% U-235 and above more than 90% U-235 but less than 20% U-235 U-235 Uranium U-238Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 46
  47. 47. Global Uranium Enrichment Capacities, 2010 (14 operational plants in 10 countries, not including 3+ military plants) 26,200 20,000 10,000 1,500 2,000 120 120 tSWU/yr Total SWU-production in country/region
  48. 48. Why Centrifuges Are Different Zippe Centrifuge, 1959 Characteristics of centrifuge technology relevant to nuclear proliferation Rapid Breakout and Clandestine OptionScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 48
  49. 49. Iran’s Second Enrichment Site, near Qom (Fordow Plant, revealed in September 2009 at 34.885 N, 50.996 E)Science on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 50
  50. 50. Newcomer CountriesAccording to the IAEA, 60+ countries were considering nuclear programs in 2010 More than 10 GWe installed Less than 10 GWe installed Considering nuclear program 63 countries shown Last update: Fall 2010
  51. 51. Global Uranium Enrichment Capacities, 2010 (14 operational plants in 10 countries, not including two military plants) 26,200 20,000 10,000 1,500 2,000 120 120 tSWU/yr Total SWU-production in country/region
  52. 52. Global Uranium Enrichment Capacities, 2060 Based on the requirements for GCAM3 Policy Scenario in 14 World Regions 16,440 3,120 5,400 19,560 57,840 31,320 7,920 10,320 5,640 33,240 10,560 17,640 8,880 1,320 Note: 10 tSWU/yr are enough to make HEU for 2–4 weapons per year tSWU/yr Total SWU-production in country/region
  53. 53. Concluding Remarks The Fukushima accidents have reminded us that we continue to rely on a reactor technology that is not “state-of-the-art” Critical debate needed about life-extensions and safety objectives for future reactors The economics of nuclear power are highly uncertain Advanced reactors promise enhanced safety but are also more expensive Small modular reactors would have to be “mass-produced” to overcome “economy-of-scale” penalty This decade is critical Not much new nuclear capacity will be added in the United States and Europe Time to establish adequate technologies and new norms of governanceScience on Saturday, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, January 21, 2012 54

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